Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Thanks to the new actual Wizard would would have a pick a couple spots later...think positive thoughts its just a game after all

It is what it is. I am ok with it. Just wish to have a top 10 pick. That’s all. Would be nice to have another Parekh level prospect

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Wouldn’t that be top 10 vs Florida’s? Something in the 30s

You're assuming Florida makes the final four again.

At that, you're assuming the Flames could lose a top-10 pick. They can't.

You not only take the worst-case scenario, you misrepresent it to make it look even worse.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Wouldn’t that be top 10 vs Florida’s? Something in the 30s

Probably not in the 30s...and I'm just saying they will have a pick slightly outside the top 10 anyway. Franchise will survive

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

It is what it is. I am ok with it. Just wish to have a top 10 pick. That’s all.

Here I thought the tank crowd were all, ‘If you don't have a top-3 pick you can't win anything.’ What happened to your standards, guys?

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

You're assuming Florida makes the final four again.

At that, you're assuming the Flames could lose a top-10 pick. They can't.

You not only take the worst-case scenario, you misrepresent it to make it look even worse.

I am not misrepresenting anything. I am answering the question of this thread.

If it’s a top 10 pick, we get to keep it and they get Florida’s. They are the defending champs and currently the top seed so yeah it’s likely a bottom pick.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

I am not misrepresenting anything. I am answering the question of this thread.

I beg your pardon. I thought you were talking about how much worse the pick the Flames keep could be, compared to the one they give up.

By the way, the Panthers are seven points behind Washington in the East, and only three points ahead of third place in their division. It's pretty much a tossup whether they will be the top seed in the Atlantic.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Had to go all of the way back to page 62 to find my last post. Wow has this thread gotten predictably crazy since getting into the "Murderer's row" road trip.

Section 1: Marching to the Trade Deadline - 2 games remaining

• Expected Wins:
• Likely Wins: Flyers (A)
• Likely Losses:
• Expected Losses: Stars (A)

• Confirmed Wins: Sabres (H), Wild (A)*, Ducks (H), Kraken (A)*, Sharks (H), Capitals (A)*,
• Confirmed OTL: Kraken (H)*, Hurricane (A)*,
• Confirmed Losses: Jets (A), Capitals (H), Red Wings (H)*, Leafs (H), Avalanche (H), Lightning (A), Panthers (A),

*Defied expectation

Section 2: Playoff standings update
Even with the nightmare roadtrip, the Flames are currently tied for WC2 with the Canucks but with the tiebreaker going in the Flames favour. The Blues are 1 point back (with 2 more games played) and UHC is 2 points back with 1 more game played.

...

The "Murderer's row" road trip has ended and the Trade Deadline is upon us.

Section 1: Marching to the Trade Deadline - 0 games remaining. Results are 7-7-3 record

All things considered, I would say that the Flames outperformed expectations with the hard schedule and the big road trip.

• Confirmed Wins: Sabres (H), Wild (A)*, Ducks (H), Kraken (A)*, Sharks (H), Capitals (A)*, Flyers (A)
• Confirmed OTL: Kraken (H)*, Hurricane (A)*, Stars (A)*
• Confirmed Losses: Jets (A), Capitals (H), Red Wings (H)*, Leafs (H), Avalanche (H), Lightning (A), Panthers (A),

*Defied expectation

Marching down the stretch: 20 games remaining

• Expected Wins: Canadiens (H), Canucks (H), Kraken (H), UHC (A), Ducks (H), Sharks (A), Ducks (A), Sharks (H),
• Likely Wins: Islanders (A), Wild (H), Kings (A),
• Likely Losses: Rangers (A),
• Expected Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A), Devils (A), Stars (H), Oilers (A), Avalanche (A), Golden Knights (H), Golden Knights (H),

Quick reminder: How I set my expectations is that the team does better at home and worse on the road and it seems that we do better against bubble and basement teams but struggle against the playoff teams of this season. Currently showing 8-8-4 expectation, depending on how you want to read this list.

Section 2: Playoff standings update
On TDL day, the team is still holding onto WC2.

• Canucks are 1 point back and have a game in hand
• Blues are 2 points back but have 1 more game played
• UHC are 3 points back with even games played to the Flames

Section 3: Tankathon update

• The Flames have the 15th hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 3-4-3)
• Canucks have the 6th hardest (L10 = 5-4-1)
• Kings have the 18th hardest (L10 = 4-3-3)
• Blues are 32nd hardest... STILL the easiest remaining schedule as of now!!!! (L10 = 6-2-2)
• UHC are 27th hardest (L10 = 7-3-0)

Based on the standings, the Canucks are still a threat as they could pass us with their game in hand. However, they do seem to be selling for the TDL and Tankathon suggests their hard schedule should help the Flames stay ahead.
The Blues and UHC become the threat to holding onto WC2 with their winning records in their last 10 and easy schedules in front of them.

Section 4: "Top10 draft" update

• Flames are 14th overall, tied with CBJ.
• 1 point back is the Senators, Canucks, and Rangers.
• 2 points back is the Red Wings, Blues, and Canadiens.
• 3 points back is the UHC and Bruins are 4 points back.

Basically, 2 points separate the Flames from dropping 6 spots in the standings to 20 OA. However, it would take UHC and one of the Bruins, Islanders, or Flyers to get some wins to open the #10 spot for the Flames. There still is a chance for a top 10 pick but it is very, very small.

Note: Devils are currently 12OA and Panthers are 4OA in the standings.

[butterfly]

March 11…

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by #-3

what happened to sportstatsclub? I used to really enjoy their model at this time of year.

They closed it down a while back.

Moneypuck does something similar without the graphs.


They have standings graphs that do something similar if you scroll down to the West Wildcard Race.

[1qqaaz]

Vancouver now has a smaller chance of making the playoffs than even St. Louis. Nearly tied with Utah.

[Bingo]

Yeah Flames pretty much locked into a playoff push now.

Points in three straight games make the top ten pick almost a dead issue.

Flames need to go 7-12-0 or .368 to get to 84 points and a top ten pick.

Flames need to go 9-9-1 or .500 to get to 89 points and the 8th playoff spot

Flames now have a 2.7 point lead in projection over the Canucks (next closest).

Need a regulation win tonight to move that gap to 5.2 points.

[Ba'alzamon]

89 points currently projects to a playoff spot? Good grief this has been a strange season.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Ba'alzamon

89 points currently projects to a playoff spot? Good grief this has been a strange season.

9th place team pace ... yep

that should improve with four teams vying for one spot.

[Calgary4LIfe]

More 3 point games towards the end of the season should push that playoff line upwards slightly. Either that, or I have been buying into the notion that more teams play not to lose towards the end of the season.

[EVERLAST]

Pressure ramping up and teams losing points during an important time is weird.

Flames just need to focus on 1 shift, 1 period , 1 game at a time ....dont get too high , nor too low.

[Knut]

Originally Posted by EVERLAST

Pressure ramping up and teams losing points during an important time is weird.

Flames just need to focus on 1 shift, 1 period , 1 game at a time ....dont get too high , nor too low.

Pucks off the glass, 110%, Pressure hockey, out work

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by EVERLAST

Pressure ramping up and teams losing points during an important time is weird.

Flames just need to focus on 1 shift, 1 period , 1 game at a time ....dont get too high , nor too low.

Hospital hockey time

[redmile04]

Has there been a worse team to make the playoffs in recent history ( excluding Wolf)

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by redmile04

Has there been a worse team to make the playoffs in recent history ( excluding Wolf)

Washington just last year made the playoffs with a -37 goal differential.

[redmile04]

https://x.com/StatsCentre/status/189...772526409?s=19