2023 NHL Draft Thread

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

@Sandman, that Erdman kid would be a great pickup in the 3rd/4th round. Hoping he drops, love that 5v5 production. Gives me Garland vibes.

I don’t have the numbers right now to support this, but it seems to me that scoring is down a fair bit this year in the USHL, a league that’s considered hard to score in to begin with. It makes the numbers of guys like Conmy and Erdman look more impressive.

[fotze2]

Originally Posted by Tkachukwagon

Some interesting articles on Calgary Kid Aiden Fink. Top ranked AJHL player with the Brooks Bandits and a clone of Mangiapane (looks, no idea about playing style).

https://www.nhl.com/flames/news/calg...nk/c-344797778

https://www.brooksbandits.ca/aiden-f...2022-23-season

Dad is the football coach/teacher at Bishop Grandin.

[Sandman]

Draft Thoughts (Uncut Gems Edition, Vol.2)

-I would almost draft C/RW Hugo Lejon for his name alone. Lejon tallied 9 goals and 38 points in 46 games for Vasteras of the J20, which puts him 5th in points for draft-eligibles coming out of the J20. That could be mostly due to the fact that Lejon didn't get much of a promotion to upper leagues, just 2 games in the Allsvenskan, which speaks to his raw game. According to tracking data from EP however, Lejon set up more scoring chances in the J20 than any other draft-eligible forward, when adjusted for ice-time. Obviously, Lejon is a crafty playmaker with all the deception and manipulation that comes with it- he draws attackers towards him, then passes to teammates in the space left open. It has also been said that he owns a quick shot with a nice release. He has vision, and top-tier passing and puck skills. Though he has an above average off-puck game, he's guilty of playing far too much on the perimeter, and puck-watching too much. His physical game is virtually non-existent, and he's not the best skater, although he's active, and even disruptive, on both the forecheck and backcheck. He's still extremely raw, and might not even be picked until he fixes his overall game, gets stronger and faster, and learns to use his exceptional skills to drive play.

-Here's one for those who love the little bulldogs on skates: 5'9",161lb RW Calem Mangone, who compiled 47 points in 67 games, with the Saginaw Spirit of the OHL. Nobody told Mangone that players his size couldn't play a power-forward game. A lot of his game is built around his physicality, which he uses to separate opponents from the puck, and to secure possession for his team, and he's in every battle fighting hard. He's not afraid to drive the middle, or attack the net, and he owns a relentless motor. Despite only recieving 18 PIMs on the season, he's a constant pest, hounding puck-carriers and challenging them for possession. He's skilled, has good vision and a fine off-puck game, and usually executes the right play. Mobility-wise, he's somewhere around average, and in need of improvement, and a separation gear. I noticed that his .70 ppg were a bit of a downgrade from his production of 0.72 ppg in 2021-22 (34 points in 47). In 2021-22, the Spirit were the second-worst team in the league, but improved to 7th best this year, so I would have expected much better numbers from Mangone this season. I have a hunch that he's a better player than his numbers indicate, and I think he'll grow with his team in the next few years, with much better offensive totals.

-C Cooper Foster may have been lost a bit, playing on a deep, powerhouse team like the Ottawa 67's, with 36 points in 63 games. The 5'11"176lb Foster already displays a well-developed defensive game, having the hockey sense, anticipation, and work ethic to be a constant disruptor of incoming plays to his zone. His active stick and exemplary positioning are big assets, and he's said to be an excellent off-puck player- he nullifies passing plays by taking opponents' sticks proactively, and does the same in the offensive zone to create room for teammates. He finds the seams to make himself an option, and has tons of energy, compete, and motor. Right now, he doesn't create a lot of high-danger opportunities, but there are signs of more to come- he already uses a large amount of deception in his game, and he can draw pressure in order to flash his crafty passing ability. His speed is an area of concern, and limits his potential right now. He can hide a lot of his speed issues in junior, on the strength of his anticipation and proactive awareness, but he'll need to get faster before he turns pro. Some of these issues will improve as he gets bigger and stronger. There's going to be opportunity for Foster going forward, as the 67's have some older players departing this off-season, so hopefully he takes advantage.

C Ryan Fine is a fire hydrant, at 5'9", and 183lbs, who compiled 42 points in 63 NTDP games, playing mostly a support role. In the U-18's, he seemed to be playing mostly RW. Fine seems to be a volume-shooter, and enjoys a wide array of quality shots, along with a "Fine" release, but he is no slouch in the playmaking department- and he knows how to pry open, and exploit, open space. He can shoot or dish at full speed, and he has quick feet with just enough agility and balance to be slippery and hard to catch. There's no backing down here, and when his team loses the puck, Fine will battle anywhere on the ice to get it back. He likes shooting from the slot, but he has no fear in going to the net, and screening the goalie to pick up some garbage, or capitalize on tips or rebounds. Scouts like his off-puck play, and he shows compete, awareness, and positioning in the defensive zone- although his presence will always be felt more in the other two zones. 4 assists in 7 games at the U-18's, but many doubt his offense due to his less-than-stellar numbers back home, however- he will have plenty of time to work on his game, as he's committed to Harvard in the fall. Hopefully, he will get more ice-time and responsibility as well.

RW Will Vote is short in stature, at 5'7" and only 159lbs, but he's not short on motor. Vote did a little better than teammate Ryan Fine in the offensive department, with 45 points in 61 games in the NTDP, and he impressed in the U-18's with 7 points in 7 games, but that doesn't necessarily make him a better prospect. Vote is a fairly well-rounded player, leaning towards his playmaking as his main offensive weapon- he is a deft passer in transition, as well as in the offensive zone, and he can pass through layers of traffic. As a playmaker, he comes with all the built-in deceptiveness and manipulation one would expect, and he can make plays in full flight, or off the rush. He's not afraid of the middle lanes, or going to the front of the net. As a small player though, Vote can struggle in board battles, and he will need to learn to manage contact going forward. Vote is pretty valuable in the defensive zone though, and is more polished in this area than his teammate, Ryan Fine, even forming a formidable penalty-killing duo with another teammate, Danny Nelson. Vote has the proactivity, and positioning, along with the work-ethic to disrupt attackers, both in the neutral zone, and defensive zone. Vote's mobility is a bit lacklustre, especially for a player of his size, but he has runway to improve as he's headed to Boston College in the fall.

[Tkachukwagon]

More on Dragicevic, who is starting to sound pretty appealing:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1669400531029331968

[Tkachukwagon]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1669454889800413186

Wonder if Calgary could grab one of those 3rd rounders from Chicago if they swap the 16th & 19th pick?

[Toonage]

Chicago feels like they're in expansion team territory with the picks and cap space. Seems like they could rebuild fairly quickly.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Chicago feels like they're in expansion team territory with the picks and cap space. Seems like they could rebuild fairly quickly.

I dunno. Their roster is pretty abysmal. Yes, they have lots of 2nd and 3rd round picks, but how long does the average 2nd/3rd round pick take to become a roster player, if at all.

They really went all in on tanking by trading Dach and Debrincat, and now, except for maybe Reichel, they don't have much to build with.

The Blackhawks are really going to have to rely on putting together a solid team from free agency, if they are going to have success anytime soon.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by blankall

I dunno. Their roster is pretty abysmal. Yes, they have lots of 2nd and 3rd round picks, but how long does the average 2nd/3rd round pick take to become a roster player, if at all.

They really went all in on tanking by trading Dach and Debrincat, and now, except for maybe Reichel, they don't have much to build with.

The Blackhawks are really going to have to rely on putting together a solid team from free agency, if they are going to have success anytime soon.

With the cap crunch over the next two seasons there'll be ample good players available for trade or Free Agency.

[Tbull8]

They should be going hard after guys like Kakko and lafreniere. Take on a cap dump for a couple seasons

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Tkachukwagon

https://twitter.com/user/status/1669454889800413186

Wonder if Calgary could grab one of those 3rd rounders from Chicago if they swap the 16th & 19th pick?

I expect they could. While in many drafts, the difference between 16 and 19 is not great, in this draft, if the Hawks really like a particular player at 16, they can easily sacrifice a third (and maybe even a late second) to move up and get the exact player they want.

[Tkachukwagon]

Byron Bader (Hockey Prospecting) just released his top 32 in the 2023 NHL draft. Some interesting rankings in here, including Gulyayev as the #1 D
and Cristall ranked at #7.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1669755158367174657

7. Andrew Cristall, W, WHL

This is where you start to see my list really start to differ from most other lists. Cristall perhaps isn’t the greatest skater and has some things to work on but offensively he is elite. He has great hands and offensive vision and his profile in the model is that of a player who hits as a star about half the time and almost always makes the NHL. These guys often go in the top 5. In this draft there’s rumours that Cristall might not go until the late teens (hopefully 16th).

8. Mikhail Gulyayev, D, KHL/VHL/MHL

Gulyayev has an INCREDIBLE profile in the model and can skate like the wind. A crazy productive offensive dman who looks very similar to Evan Bouchard and Brandt Clarke but he’s of the younger variety too. But he’s 5’10”, Russian (given the current climate and hesitancy towards Russian prospects doesn’t help) and has some stuff to fix up.

For reference, if you look at all drafted dmen over the past 30+ years that played in a junior Euro league (and showed best there)… Gulyayev has by far the highest equivalency of any of them. And he had a 99th percentile equivalency in his pre-draft year.

Remember last year… there was a tiny dman that had crazy production that we suggested should go high in the 1st round. Didn’t go until nearly the 3rd round. And put together one of the best offensive seasons at the NCAA level that we’ve ever seen and now is on everybody’s radar. And the year before that a tiny dman was taken in the 2nd round out of the WHL because … he was small and didn’t play a lot in his draft year (but put up incredible numbers in the small game sample he did play in). By his D+1 it was very obvious he should have been a 1st ruond pick. Gulyayev could potentially be the next Lane Hutson, Olen Zellweger variety. He in fact profiles slightly ahead of where both were in their DYs. I am all in on this one!

[Royle9]

Bader's list always intrigues me as he often has guys completely different than the usual suspects do.
Come on draft week, inject the fun into my veins.

[Tbull8]

Benson (if he falls because of size, unlikely)
Barlow (looks like he could be NHL ready, maybe a year away. Leadership qualities as C)
Perreault (High end skill, maybe more a complimentary player, but great potential)
Yager (Potential home run pick imo, wicked shot)

These are the 4 I'd be ecstatic to get

[cral12]

Originally Posted by cral12

Updated Upside Hockey profiles page yet again - I've lost count lol, but must be near 130 or perhaps more now of Sandman's brilliant work!

Direct link to profiles:
https://bit.ly/upsidenhldraftprofiles

I've fallen a bit behind the profile-composing machine that is CP's Sandman, but have added more of his profiles since my last update. We must be at 140 or so now and I've got probably 15-20 or more to add.

On top of that, my East Coast based Chief of Scouting, E-Mac, just sent me his Final Rankings which we use as Upside's Final Rankings.
In this update (hopefully by end of weekend), I'm excited to see as he has added a top skills section to it as well.

Stay tuned. Don't get caught on the Dark Side for this draft. Join us on the Upside. (Friendly reminder that all our stuff is free, of course).

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by blankall

I dunno. Their roster is pretty abysmal. Yes, they have lots of 2nd and 3rd round picks, but how long does the average 2nd/3rd round pick take to become a roster player, if at all.

They really went all in on tanking by trading Dach and Debrincat, and now, except for maybe Reichel, they don't have much to build with.

The Blackhawks are really going to have to rely on putting together a solid team from free agency, if they are going to have success anytime soon.

They have Bedard, one of the best prospect pools in the NHL, a ton of draft picks over the next 3 years and a ton of cap space.

They are in way better shape than an expansion team.

And that cap flexibility comes at a time when the cap has been stagnant and teams are crying.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by blankall

I dunno. Their roster is pretty abysmal. Yes, they have lots of 2nd and 3rd round picks, but how long does the average 2nd/3rd round pick take to become a roster player, if at all.

They really went all in on tanking by trading Dach and Debrincat, and now, except for maybe Reichel, they don't have much to build with.

The Blackhawks are really going to have to rely on putting together a solid team from free agency, if they are going to have success anytime soon.

Bedard, Reichel, Korchinski, Nazar isn't a bad start.

Unfortunately for them their other picks in the 2021 and 2022 drafts don't seem to be progressing very well.

But they have 6 1sts (including 1st OV) , and 8 2nds over the the next 3 seasons, and probably are bad for at least the next 2 seasons.

They are also a top market though, and are going to have a ton of cap space to attract players and potentially add more assets by using those draft assets.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Royle9

Bader's list always intrigues me as he often has guys completely different than the usual suspects do.
Come on draft week, inject the fun into my veins.

It's an interesting list because it's based more on a statistical model, but I think it also therefore ignores risk factors of some of these prospects. It'll be interesting to see how "right" his projections are over time.

You can go back and see his 2021 list. Which like most lists are a mix. But for instance you've got Mason McTavish down at 22 on his list.

https://hockeyprospecting.com/2021/0...g-top-32-2021/

2020:
https://twitter.com/ByronMBader/stat...60889542201345

i'm a fan of his work but his draft lists are questionable to me. E.g. in 2020 he had Zion Nybeck at #12. That was a player with good production but very questionable projection to the pro level because of attributes. And he's not looking like much.

[SuperMatt18]

I think people need to understand too that Bader's isn't really "scouting" he's using data models to try to predict who is going to be most successful, and isn't making many adjustments to the list for things like size/physical attributes because that would step away from using the model.

Sometimes it works (Zellweger) sometimes it doesn't (Nybeck).

One thing I'll say is considering it's purely a statistics based model it's probably just as effective as the traditional scouting methods...maybe more so when identifying those guys that are "sleepers"

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I think people need to understand too that Bader's isn't really "scouting" he's using data models to try to predict who is going to be most successful, and isn't making many adjustments to the list for things like size/physical attributes because that would step away from using the model.

Sometimes it works (Zellweger) sometimes it doesn't (Nybeck).

One thing I'll say is considering it's purely a statistics based model it's probably just as effective as the traditional scouting methods...maybe more so when identifying those guys that are "sleepers"

Yes exactly. So it's a valuable alternative view relative to the standard rankings.
But needs to be viewed with that context in mind.

[Naitix]

Spent some time looking at top 15 prospects outside of the top 5 that the Flames have some potential in drafting. In terms of who I want Flames to draft:
1. Ryan Leonard
2. Axel Sandin Pellikka
3. Oliver Moore
4. Colby Barlow
5. Dalibor Dvorsky
6. Matthew Wood
7. Nate Danielson
8. Dmitri Simashev
9. Gabe Perreault
10. Brayden Yager
11. Calum Ritchie
12. Quntin Musty


I would be happy with any of these, and multiple of them will be available at 16. There are good players everywhere in this draft it will be be a matter of selecting the correct one. For my overrall ranking and a bit of a write up you will notice that it differs a bit from my "preffered Flames draft pick" as I think we should select a forward instead of Dman.


1. Connor Bedard


2-5. Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith, Michkov


6. Ryan Leonard
6'0, 190 LBS, rightie, wing. I love Ryan Leonard, if he is still available at 10-12 I would absolutely trade up for him. He is a strong skater who uses his size to take the middle of the ice and is hard to knock of the pucks. He has great acceleration and top end speed, amazing shot, good at zone entries, great compete level and 200 foot player. There really is not much wrong wit his game, he is a complete package for a power forward. He reminds of Tkachuk on how he used his body to protect pucks and reverse hits, Leonard does have a way better shot and speed.


7. Zach Benson
5'9, 159 LBS, leftie. I do not think he will be available outside of top 10, Flames should def take him at 16 but I would not trade up for him, we have enough small players. IN general he is an amazing prospect, he does not have great top end speed but I think it will come with age. His mobility, edge work and first steps are way too good. A very cerebral player, has his head up all the time. Has great control of the puck at speed and can easily gain or exit the zone. His quick first steps allow him to be great on the forecheck and change his momentum after reading the play, he creates space for his teammates. He is really good at changing momentum and taking advantage of other peoples mistakes.


8. Axel Sandin Pelikka
5'11, 176 LBS, rightie D. Not very good point totals in the SHL as he only played 8 minutes per game but did amazing in the lower league. He is an amazing skater, with great edge work and just overall a smooth, effortless skater. He has a pretty good one timer and a pretty good shot, he's a great puck handler and a great passer. He is not big but he is quite strong on his skates and in battles. Super calm with the pucks and amazing at zone exist and transitional play. He has some defensive coverage issues but these are fixable. He is the type of dman that the Flames need, reminds me of Quinn Hughes.


9. Oliver Moore
5'11, 188 LBS, leftie, center. Probably the fastest skater in the draft, phenominal stride and great edge work. He has an amazing shot, similar to Dvorskys, and has one of the best back hands in the draft. He is not that good of a passer and not super creative. His hands are pretty average and I am concerned with his decision making at speed. He has great compete and work ethic on the backcheck. He has great edge work to create separation from other players, I think his biggest issue is to make decisions quicker once her runs out of space and get better at puck control at speed - I do think these are fixable. I see him a very boom or bust prospect, he easily has top 6 potential but if he can't play the game at NHL decision making speed then he will not be effective.


10. Colby Barlow
6'0, 192 LBS, leftie, wing. I love Barlow if he falls to the Flames. He is not the smoothest skater but he does generate some nice speed - I like his first steps but he needs to work on edges and mobility.He has an insane shot, wrist shot and a one timer, I would say best shot after Bedard. He has play making abilities but primarily a shooter and he has great compete. He does not have fancy hands but does try to stick handle guys too much I would say, should use his body more which would come as he improves his edges. I think he is a lock to play in the NHK, just for the fact that he will score goals on the PP. I do not see him as a play driver but you get him the puck and it is in the back of the net. He is exactly what the Flames need on the right side on the PP, or in the slot. He was ranked top player in the OHL in terms of hardest shot, best shot and most dangerous in the slot.


11. Dalibor Dvorsky
6'1, 201 LBS, leftie, center. Another player I would love on the Flames because of his shot and hockey IQ. I am a bit lower on him that others, he is usually ranked 7-9 but I would not be surprised if he fell to mid teens. He does not have great first steps, not explosive and his top speed is pretty average. He has an amazing shot with a great one timers, and he is great passer. He does cough the puck up under pressure at times. From watching his highlights a lot of his points are from him being in the right spot and I read that people see him as a player with good hockey IQ, it is hard to judge that from limited highlights. I am not sure what to make of him, but he definitely needs to improve his skating.


12. Dmitri Simashev
6'4, 200 lBS, leftie D. I love Simashev and can easily see him going in the top 10 to a team that already has plenty of offensive forwards. He is an amazing skater, he used it to open up lane son the breakout and go around guys. He is a really good passer, and has amazing hands for a big guy, he has a decent shot but he did not get much points in Russia. I think his offense will come with time, Russia is known for some weird D development of not allowing as much creativity as NA. Seems like he is also a great defender and hits people. He has so much potential but I think he is more of a project. I would love Flames to draft him if we got another late teens or early 20s pick.


13. David Reinbacher
6'2, 187 LBS, rightie D. Pretty decent ksater, i think it will improve with more coaching and age. He has a good shot and is a great transition player with great passing. Great at playing the body and remind me of Seider. Needs to improve his maneuverability, he has great edges though. It is harder to judge D from highlights but seems to be a great defenseman. He is the type of player that can get taken anywhere in the draft based on need. I can see him going above ASP and Simashev but I would rather have ASP for the current iteration of the Flames.


14. Matthew Wood
6'3, 193 LBS, rightie, center or wing. He excels at every part of the game other than skating. Just not a good skater right now, he is a big kid and it usually takes longer for them to develop it. Has a very good shot and can one-time the puck. Has great hockey IQ which results in some amazing passes and plays. Great hands as well. Another player I would take is he is available for the Flames, just fix his skating and you got a slam dunk, I can see him being great in the playoffs.


15. Nate Danielson
6'2, 185 LBS, rightie, center. Exceptional skater, such a good skater for his size, will only get better,, really powerfull crossovers. Has a good shot and it is quite accurate, he averaged only 4 shots per game but still managed to score 33 in 68 games. Also has a great one timer, but he is more of a play maker, amazing passer and has great hands. He takes the puck to the middle of the ice. He does not have much wrong wit his game, just needs to work on some puck battles and consistency. Love him as a prospect.


16. Gabe Perreault
5'11, 165 LBS, leftie, wing. Needs to work on his skating, does not have great edge work or mobility or acceleration but he is pretty fast once he gets going. Has a good shot, but what stands out most for him is his hockey IQ, passing and playmaking. He has amazing hands and is super creative with the puck, he loves to delay the play and finds great options to create play. Not sure if he would fit on the Flames as well as sme other players but I do think he will be a good player.


17. Brayden Yager
5'11, 166 LBS, rightie, center. Decent skater, good speed once he gets going. Should get faster as he puts on some muscle, he has good mechanics - 166 LBS is quite small for his height. Really accurate and powerful shot, could have had more goals this year but seems to have worked on his playmaking, his hands are alright. He is good at suing his body for puck protection but seems weak at creating space and has some questionable defense.


18. Calum Ritchie
Did not take notes for him but I would love for Flames to take him with another 1st rounder.


19. Quentin Musty
Did not take notes for him but he seems to be good at everything, did not really see any issues with him. Another player I would love for Flames to take if they gt another 1st rounder


20. Andrew Cristall
5'9, 167 LBS, leftie, wing. He might have been ranked even lower for me if I watched other prospects. His speed is just not good enough, and I am not sure if he will be able to improve it enough. He is shifty and has good edgework. He has great shot accuracy and it is pretty powerful. He shines with his creativity and passing, he slows the play down similar to Perreault, and sets up some great one timers. He needs to work on his compete, defensive game and speed. He does remind me of Johnny with his creativty and shiftiness but he lacks the speed Johnny has to go around guys. I do not want Flames to draft him, we just do not need a 5'9 player that does not have great speed - there are just better players available but I would not mind taking him with a late 20s pick. I can see him going in the top 15 if a bigger teams needs some creativity and can wait a couple of years for him to better his skating.