The Drive for 30th

[DazzlinDino]

Anyone else have the feeling Edmonton will tank their remaining games? There really should be a limit on eligibility for draft lottery based on number of times a team tanks. They are pretty bad but come on whats with another free fall from these guys? They have now lost the last 7 of 8 and counting.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by DazzlinDino

Anyone else have the feeling Edmonton will tank their remaining games? There really should be a limit on eligibility for draft lottery based on number of times a team tanks. They are pretty bad but come on whats with another free fall from these guys? They have now lost the last 7 of 8 and counting.

An easy guess would be that they are emotionally crushed for missing the playoffs yet again and the public laughter at the circus that is their head office. That team was and is desperate for success.

[Itse]

Out of curiosity, I took a look at the top scorers in the league and where they were drafted.

Top 10:
1st overall: Crosby, Stamkos, Ovechkin, Kane
2nd overall: Eric Staal
3rd overall: Toews
5th overall: Kessel
45th overall: Ribeiro
Undrafted: St. Louis, Kunitz

Top 11-20:
1st: Tavares, Hall
4th: Ladd, Backstrom
7th: Voracek, Kadri
13th: Semin
19th: Getzlaf
22nd: Giroux
263rd: Moulson

top 21-30:
1st: Nash, Thornton
2nd: Daniel Sedin
3rd: Henrik Sedin, Duchene
5th: Wheeler
11th: Kopitar
51st: Stepan
171st: Datsyuk
264th: Parenteau

Now of course this is just one shortened season and points are not everything even for a forward, but basicly it seems that if you're looking for top 10 scoring talent, you pretty much need a top 5 pick. Funny thing though, the difference between 2-5 doesn't seem that big, but 1st overall seems vastly superior to the other picks. (My logic says that this has to be partly a statistical anomaly.)

Which actually makes me feel a little better about our recent winning streak, because it was never that likely that we'd end up with 1st overall.

(The undrafted and really low picks in forwards tend to be older guys, which I think is a clear indication that NHL scouting rarely misses out on talent anymore.)

On the other hand, all is not that grim, as when it comes to defensemen the story is vastly different.

Defensemen top 10 in points:
7th: Suter
9th: Phaneuf
29th: Kronwall
43rd: Subban
62nd: Letang
79th: Franson
156th: Campbell
162nd: Markov
250th: Timonen
262nd: Streit

Top 10 defensemen in TOI/G (who are not on the list above)
2nd: Doughty
3rd: Johnson
15th: Karlsson
49th: Weber
62nd: Martin
Undrafted: Girardi

Some other defensemen not on that list:
Seabrook: 14th
Chara: 56th
Keith: 54th

2/3 of those guys are not even first rounders. So while the downside of drafting defensemen is that they are very hard to predict, the upside is that pretty much every team has a fair chance of drafting a future star defenseman.

[Wolven]

Winning sure is making this cheering for the draft thing harder to do. But, hopefully the Flames won't be the only team in the bottom 5 that win some games here at the end of the season. Only two games of interest for our drafting going on OOT tonight.

PIT vs OTT
ANA vs EDM

The Sens are chasing the Blues still and will hopefully be able to leapfrog them in draft order to improve our second 1st-round pick.
The Oilers are awful but maybe they can pull it together to upset the Ducks.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

I would bet that the Pittsburgh pick is used to move up, and if that proves to be unsuccessful it will be used to draft Zachary Fucale.

I don't want them to, but I have a funny feeling that the Pittsburgh pick will be used to draft Fucale. From a PR standpoint it makes a lot of sense since if they do that they can legitimately claim that they got the highest rated Goaltender in the draft class and they can sell the fanbase that they when they traded Jarome Iginla they got the "#1 Goaltender of the Future" in return.

it is a reasonable assumption that both Edm and Phi would be interested in Nurse.

Sure... but it'd be a reasonable assumption last year that the Oilers would have taken Murray over Yakupov (or rather traded down and taken one of the top D last year). But they love their shiny forwards to the exclusion of blueliners. Maybe MacTavish will be better then Tambolleni (hard to be much worse).

I would really love 3 solid foundational assets to emerge from this draft. One way or another.

Pretty sure we'll get 1 from our own pick, but 3 foundational assets might be hard considering that 20-30 picks are probably coin flips to be meaningful contributors (although solid bets to be legitimate NHL'ers) and everything past that is almost a lottory ticket to be same.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Can someone please explain to the kids how the draft order works?

Does anyone actually think these kids care where the Flames pick in the draft? For many of them this is their first and possibly only shot to prove that they belong in the big league. Do they want some hotshot NHL-ready 1st rounder to come in next year and take their spot on the depth chart? Hell no!!

The only sure fire way to tank is to get a load of spoilt millionaire UFAs and try to make them play a defence-first system where they have to back check. Otherwise known as the 'Brent Sutter'

I still think we'll draft top 5. No way the teams around us continue to suck as hard as they've been sucking. The sheen will probably wear off these youngsters soon too.

[Stay Golden]

It's going to be the drive for 6th-8th pick. Maybe they get real lucky in the lottery.
I was on board with lose as many games as possible since Iggy moved on.
Honestly it has been both fun and refreshing watching the young kids win instead.
I hope the Flames Brass do not jam up the roster with several UFA's in the offseason. We need to get our prospects going and inject that youth and positive work ethic that some of the veterans do have seem to share every game. I hope Besides Sven there is at 3 additional Heat Players that earn their way onto next years Flames team for the entire season.

[StrykerSteve]

Baertschi, Horak and Reinhart need to be on the opening night roster next season.

Would also love to see two of the young defensemen on the roster as well, not counting Brodie obviously.

[Vinny01]

Not sure if this warrents its own thread so I will post in here.

The FAN960 is promoting a draft lottery party at Shark Club the night of the lotto.

For the many of us that did not want to celebrate our high draft choice in Oilers fashion it appears the FAN is now promoting it.

Hopefully it bombs.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Not sure if this warrents its own thread so I will post in here.

The FAN960 is promoting a draft lottery party at Shark Club the night of the lotto.

For the many of us that did not want to celebrate our high draft choice in Oilers fashion it appears the FAN is now promoting it.

Hopefully it bombs.

I certainly am not looking to celebrate a high draft position but I did want the Flames to make the most out of missing the playoffs (for a change)and draft in the top3 instead of our usual mid-teens draft position.

As it is, I am certainly interested in the outcome of the draft lottery. It could either be amazing for us (Flames win), bad for us (a team below the Flames win) or horrible for us (Oilers win). Either way, I guess it is as good a reason as any to go out for a drink.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

Baertschi, Horak and Reinhart need to be on the opening night roster next season.

Would also love to see two of the young defensemen on the roster as well, not counting Brodie obviously.

I'm not sure Reinhart is ready yet.

I think he'll be a quality two way third line center down the road, but at this point he's still too raw. Great on the cycle, but at times he doesn't have nearly enough awareness of his surroundings, and panics with the puck when he has plenty of time.

With a great camp he might still push for a job though. It's great that he's getting a taste for the NHL right now though, it will be huge for him to have that measuring stick heading into the summer. Hopefully he can add another 15+ lbs of muscle over the next couple of years as well.

Horak and Sven.....yeah, they should absolutely be full time Flames next season.

[StrykerSteve]

With a Flames win and losses by Philly, Buffalo and Jersey, and Calgary could potentially sit in 21st by tomorrow, leapfrogging all three of those teams. Kind of makes me want to cry and cheer at the same time.

[chalms04]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Not sure if this warrents its own thread so I will post in here.

The FAN960 is promoting a draft lottery party at Shark Club the night of the lotto.

For the many of us that did not want to celebrate our high draft choice in Oilers fashion it appears the FAN is now promoting it.

Hopefully it bombs.

Will there be streamers?

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I'm not sure Reinhart is ready yet.

I think he'll be a quality two way third line center down the road, but at this point he's still too raw. Great on the cycle, but at times he doesn't have nearly enough awareness of his surroundings, and panics with the puck when he has plenty of time.

With a great camp he might still push for a job though. It's great that he's getting a taste for the NHL right now though, it will be huge for him to have that measuring stick heading into the summer. Hopefully he can add another 15+ lbs of muscle over the next couple of years as well.

Horak and Sven.....yeah, they should absolutely be full time Flames next season.

Depending on what happens in the off season I see Reinhart maybe getting a chance on the 4th line depending on who is still around. I think his ceiling is a decent 3rd line center and he might be better served playing in abbotsford top checking line minutes to help him develop into that 3rd line center.

[McG]

Originally Posted by Wolven

I certainly am not looking to celebrate a high draft position but I did want the Flames to make the most out of missing the playoffs (for a change)and draft in the top3 instead of our usual mid-teens draft position.

As it is, I am certainly interested in the outcome of the draft lottery. It could either be amazing for us (Flames win), bad for us (a team below the Flames win) or horrible for us (Oilers win). Either way, I guess it is as good a reason as any to go out for a drink.

don't forget the worst case: no matter where we finish, someone with more points wins the lottery pick and we get pushed down a pick.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by McG

don't forget the worst case: no matter where we finish, someone with more points wins the lottery pick and we get pushed down a pick.

But at least as we finish higher the probability of that happening drops. If we finish 7th, I believe it is better than 90% that we pick 7th.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by McG

don't forget the worst case: no matter where we finish, someone with more points wins the lottery pick and we get pushed down a pick.

I said that would be "bad for us". Worst case scenario in my mind is the Oilers winning the lottery. They should be picking in the mid-teens but their amazing tank job has brought them into a better draft position than us. It is really quite disgusting.

Anyway! Big night tonight:

Montréal vs New Jersey
Winnipeg vs Washington
NY Islanders vs Carolina
Buffalo vs Pittsburgh
Boston vs Philadelphia
NY Rangers vs Florida
Colorado vs St. Louis
Calgary vs Nashville
Los Angeles vs Minnesota
Dallas vs San Jose

There are a lot of different things to cheer for here as these games can impact one or both of our first two draft picks.

In the Islanders and 'Canes game you can cheer for the 'Canes to win (and hope that they win again to leaprfog us) OR you can cheer for the Islanders to win and bump the the Blues from 10th overall to 11th.

Washington is also chasing the Blues in the league standings and could help get the Blues pick into the high teens.

Colorado & San Jose need to win and keep the Blues from climbing the standings.

Philly and Nashville need to win to keep the Flames from climbing the standings further than we already have.

Hopefully the Wild/BJs can jump over the Blues and force a Blues-Ducks first round matchup. Doesn't look very likely though with a 3-point gap there now.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by GGG

But at least as we finish higher the probability of that happening drops. If we finish 7th, I believe it is better than 90% that we pick 7th.

Here are the exact odds of each position winning the draft lottery.

Spoiler!

Team 1 25.0%
Team 2 18.8%
Team 3 14.2%
Team 4 10.7%
Team 5 8.1%
Team 6 6.2%
Team 7 4.7%
Team 8 3.6%
Team 9 2.7%
Team 10 2.1%
Team 11 1.5%
Team 12 1.1%
Team 13 0.8%
Team 14 0.5%

10.2% chance we move down from 7 to 8.
4.7% chance we move from 7 to 1.
85.1% chance we stay at 7.

[EldrickOnIce]

Nm

[PlayfulGenius]

It's depressing to look at the standings...after these 3 wins, it looks more likely the pick will be worse than 7th, as opposed to getting better...the Oilers are the only team within striking distance of the Flames now... Maybe the Preds if they win tonight, but even then it's not likely.

The Flyers, Sabres and Devils are easily within reach now for the Flames.