The only thing the ceasefire has done is taken away the one way Ukraine was hurting Russia - attacking its refineries and oil storage. With that threat removed the US and Russia are slow-walking the rest of the process. If i was Zelensky I would give them a deadline, then fire everything I've got at those targets.
One thing I have read is that with the recent Trump tariff drama ongoing it has inadvertently reduced russia's oil income due to the drop in the oil price. Therefore, it actually times out pretty well for Ukraine to have their "pause" on striking refineries to showcase they are in fact serious for peace, while achieving the same results due to the decrease in revenue for russia. One of the few silver linings of the tariff situation.
I suspect that during Putin and Witkoff's meeting yesterday, Putin addressed this to Witkoff and the Trump will now squirm around to try and appease the russian "concerns". Hopefully once the pause is over and russia is still not on board with a ceasefire, on the 25th Ukraine will be right back to smashing those refineries, low oil price or not.
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Another disgusting Orc attack today during a gathering in Sumy. The death toll in this attack is going to be disgustingly high. The cancer of the world continues to target civilians.
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Trump posting today that Russia made a mistake. As though they didnt purposely launch those ballistic missiles into a crowded civilian area in Sumy. How much longer can he conceivably play dumb for? The Russians intentionally embarrass this administration at every opportunity.
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Putin’s meeting with Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, lasted more than four hours. Meanwhile, Reuters reports that about a week ago, Witkoff told Trump that the quickest way to achieve a ceasefire would be to give Russia four regions of Ukraine. https://twitter.com/user/status/1911049240387666004
The most insightful thing I’ve heard anyone say about China this week. While not a China “expert,” I’d also add Xi is not in any rush. Their culture is strategic, calm & thoughtful, and he plays the long game. https://twitter.com/user/status/1911045734272553113
French and UK forces conducted a major operation over the western Black Sea yesterday. Rafales and an E-2 from the French carrier Charles de Gaulle, French and British tankers, an RAF RC-135, and RAF Typhoons all operated together to conduct reconnaissance on Russian forces. https://twitter.com/user/status/1911030611097325952
Self-proclaimed journalist ####er Tarlson is at it again. This time, he claims the U.S. "never cared about Ukraine" and "destroyed it" to start a war with Russia—only to "lose." https://twitter.com/user/status/1910232034703781909
Perun with an update on Ukraine. Lots of stuff there, as always.
The war might be less visible in the headlines, but the fighting is very much still going on.
EDIT, some notes from the video;
- The drone warfare keeps developing. Both sides now have specialist drone units on top of already having drones basically everywhere, and evidence suggests that the placement of those specialized drone units can have very significant impact on whatever part of the front they're working at. Especially since countering drones with drones is increasingly a thing, the concept of "local drone superiority" is now very much a part of military vocabulary.
- That WW1 meets Blade Runner -vibe keeps increasing, as Ukraine has been bringing back barbed wire to protect their trenches from Russians attacking on foot.
- Perun evaluation of the Kursk operation is roughly : "It was a good operation to begin with and had a real chance of being even more successful (making it even more justified), but the Ukrainians held on too long in the end, resulting in losses that weren't worth it".
- The current US administration is currently the only country publicly recognizing the validity of Russias "referendums" held in the Russian occupied territories, except for North Korea. Just to make it clear how deep they are in Putins pocket. Literally worse than Belarus in this regard. In addition Perun points out that the US administration has already publicly given up on most of it's potential leverage and negotiating chips (Ukraine joining NATO, military support of Ukraine, Ukraine getting it's territory back) while getting nothing in return. Simultaneously, The US has been largely giving up on it's leverage over Ukraine and the good will of Europeans, meaning the Trump administration after months of work is now less capable of influencing the conflict than when they started. They might be evil and scum, but they are also definitely incompetent scum.
Last edited by Itse; 04-21-2025 at 02:44 AM.
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Indirectly related to Ukraine, but thought provoking;
APN basically claims that NATO is operating under a doctrine that's no longer relevant on the modern battlefield due to drones, which are now the main form of warfare, racking up 2/3 of all casualties in Ukraine.
This is especially relevant because our most likely enemy the Russians, are very up to date in this front, only lagging a few months behind the Ukrainians.
What we need to do is quickly start building dedicated drone battalions and train EW specialists and drone operators by the thousands. Otherwise we will be like the French and Russians at the early stages of WW2 getting crushed by German blitzkrieg.
This video on the likely upcoming Russian spring offensive just goes through the basic challenges Russia will be facing. (Short on equipment, difficulties focusing troops when the frontline is so long, and drone warfare favoring the defender.)
Last edited by Itse; 04-22-2025 at 12:21 AM.
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I've been saying this for a while that NATO/West is so concerned with tanks rolling over the hills and missiles coming from above before they even consider they are being attacked, that they have largely ignored the drone threat and what it means for warfare of the future.
We laugh at the russians for using old WW2 tanks, donkeys and meat wave tactics. Yet, they are at the forefront of drone technology (just as much as Ukraine is) and this is the terrorism of the future. Combined with their ability to have armies of neckbeards tapping away on keyboards creating disinformation and digital threats, their army is evolving from big lumbering metal machines to small cheap easy-to-make drones that can very easily infiltrate any border without opposition and neckbeards on keyboards who can sway public opinion from within the country itself.
We congratulate the Ukrainians when they hit a target 1000km away with cheaply made drone, and rightfully so, but russia will be able to replicate that sooner than later and won't need $10M missiles to hit targets thousands of km away. Yet another consequence of kicking the can down the road in this conflict; this has allowed russia be at the forefront of drone warfare technology and to test it in real-time war situations.
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I am ready to meet with Trump in Vatican; Ukraine has not yet received official proposals for the exchange or relinquishment of territories. Kyiv will never recognize the occupation of Crimea;
No one, except NATO countries, has the right to veto Ukraine's accession to the Alliance; https://twitter.com/user/status/1914722947794686424
A group of schoolchildren told their teacher they were against the war. She reported them to the police. The kids were sentenced to nearly 3 years in prison — for nothing more than opposing the war. https://twitter.com/user/status/1914268424823320808
Donald Trump, who is under investigation for collusion with the Kremlin, tried to enter the russian market through the Solntsevskaya criminal group, and his contacts with russian organized crime are much broader than previously thought.
I've been saying this for a while that NATO/West is so concerned with tanks rolling over the hills and missiles coming from above before they even consider they are being attacked, that they have largely ignored the drone threat and what it means for warfare of the future.
We laugh at the russians for using old WW2 tanks, donkeys and meat wave tactics. Yet, they are at the forefront of drone technology (just as much as Ukraine is) and this is the terrorism of the future. Combined with their ability to have armies of neckbeards tapping away on keyboards creating disinformation and digital threats, their army is evolving from big lumbering metal machines to small cheap easy-to-make drones that can very easily infiltrate any border without opposition and neckbeards on keyboards who can sway public opinion from within the country itself.
We congratulate the Ukrainians when they hit a target 1000km away with cheaply made drone, and rightfully so, but russia will be able to replicate that sooner than later and won't need $10M missiles to hit targets thousands of km away. Yet another consequence of kicking the can down the road in this conflict; this has allowed russia be at the forefront of drone warfare technology and to test it in real-time war situations.
Perun latest video is a good extension piece on the ways the West isn't currently prepared for the next war.
In short, most western countries would start running out of stuff to shoot at around week 2-3 from the start of a real war. Too much bling, not enough basics.
Of course, drones have been much of the answer to the volume and affordability problem in the current war, which just further highlights how much of a gamechanger they are.
Of course the other major example of Wests inability to answer to a drone threat is the ongoing failure of Operation Prosperity Guardian. 1 year and 4 months in, and Red Sea shipping has not recovered at all despite the continued efforts of a coalition of 20 nation states against an insurgent group with maybe 200k members, most of whom are not even involved in the Red Sea attacks.
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Trump now says his promise to end the Ukraine war “on day one” was said “in jest.” But CNN’s Daniel Dale fact-checked 53 separate times Trump made that claim—none of them jokes. https://twitter.com/user/status/1916051781261386230
Zelenskiy and Trump had "a good meeting" in Vatican, according to Zelenskiy.
Quote:
In a post on social media platform Telegram, Zelenskiy wrote: "Good meeting. One-on-one, we managed to discuss a lot. We hope for a result from all the things that were spoken about."
He said those topics included: "The protection of the lives of our people. A complete and unconditional ceasefire. A reliable and lasting peace that will prevent a recurrence of war."
How did we get to this point where the USA doesn't recognize friend or foe.
It's obvious.
At the start of Ukraine war the sides were:
EU and their proxy Ukraine
USA and their proxy Israel
against
Russia and their proxy Belarus
Iran and their proxy Gaza
Things went well for the first camp until Gaza started the war with Israel. And Europe suddenly sided with Gaza. USA was dismayed by that, vetoed several UN resolutions by Europe against Israel and sanctioned members of Europe - based international criminal court, that issued warrants about Israel's head. USA felt shocked and betrayed.
So USA just told Europe: since you didn't side with our proxy, we no longer side with your proxy.
It's simple if you look at the big picture and countries relationships.
