I think even the most pro-Ukrainian people understand the situation Ukraine is in. No one denies that 15% of Ukraine is now occupied by Russia or that the war is devastating to Ukraine. The point is that Russia isn't "winning" either. Ukraine has inflicted a higher magnitude of casualties against Russia and prevented them from reaching their original war objectives, all while also watching Russia destroy their economy. I would argue that the fight they put up possibly prevented Russia from taking other European territories in the near future. If Ukraine would have rolled over, I think it is very likely that we would currently be talking about Russian aggression on a different country right now, but Ukraine has pretty much made this impossible... for now at least.
As much as I hate to say it, a post-war Ukraine may not recover all of their lost territory which sucks big time. Even Zelenskyy has been preparing Ukrainians for the possibility that will have to accept that Russia will maintain control over the occupied areas for the foreseeable future if there is going to be an end to the war. But if or when this ends and Ukraine successfully defended 85% of their territory and affirms their sovereignty against a country everyone thought would walk right over them, it won't be a total loss. It is kind of like how Finland stood up to the USSR in WW2. They had to cede territory but it probably also ensured their overall survival as an independent nation.
There is also the possibility that a post-Putin Russia one day will return some territory.
I think economic collapse will come for Russia. We won't see a 1917 style revolution, but Putin's power comes from his ability to keep the oligarchs rich.
If this war tanks the economy, they will have no use for him and there will be a regime change (might be violent, might not be).
The new regime won't give a #### about Donbas/Crimea, and Ukraine should be able to retake it.
This scenario might take years to play out though.
Of course, the Russians still have plenty of equipment and stockpiles. But the pace at which we’re wiping out their armor is outpacing their ability to reinforce all active frontlines. They can’t sustain their current offensive rhythm. https://twitter.com/user/status/1876569020960309481
SSO "neutralized" a group of North Korean military personnel in the Kursk region, showing their personal belongings. Operators from the 8th Regiment of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine eliminated 13 North Korean servicemen: five in a firefight and eight more using drones. https://twitter.com/user/status/1876575416439418919
Ukrainians presented the next line of naval drones for the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Brave 1 cluster. The BW-2 surface UAV as a river kamikaze drone, capable of carrying up to 3 kilograms of explosives at a speed of up to 40 km/h over a distance of up to 10 km. https://twitter.com/user/status/1876520369538122072
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I think economic collapse will come for Russia. We won't see a 1917 style revolution, but Putin's power comes from his ability to keep the oligarchs rich.
If this war tanks the economy, they will have no use for him and there will be a regime change (might be violent, might not be).
The new regime won't give a #### about Donbas/Crimea, and Ukraine should be able to retake it.
This scenario might take years to play out though.
One thing always in the back of mind is if the war ends quickly, what happens when the hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers return (and that have already returned) to Russia and try to adapt back to civilian life. There are going to be a lot of young, under or unemployed trained fighters returning to a shattered economy, many of who only signed up for the money to begin with. It's not that uncommon for soldiers to return from a long war and become angry with their own country or don't have the support to adjust to a civilian life.
It's exactly the kind of thing that breeds unrest, homegrown terrorism, and potentially revolution. Especially the ones from minority regions that already have anti-government organizations, or if Putin were to die soon leaving a power vacuum. Even the soldiers returning from Vietnam to the U.S. combined with the social climate created from the war, caused some pretty big societal and cultural changes, and I feel the Ukraine was could have a similar effect on Russia. Many will really start to wonder what was the point.
I know this borders on writing fan fiction, but I can see a situation where an end to the war in Ukraine, even with terms more favourable to Russia, brings a lot of baggage back to Russia. I can visualize a situation where Putin actually gets overthrown and the new government is willing to make some amends with the West in exchange for full sanctions relief and financial support (or straight up bribes). They are largely silenced at the moment, but there are anti-Putin people in Russia and I would not be surprised if many more come out of the shadows if the political climate allows for it. Territories in Ukraine could be used as a bargaining chip if that were to happen. I believe the Trump plan only says that Russia will be allowed to occupy the areas of Ukraine it holds, but not that those areas will become recognized as Russia (I could be wrong, but I thought that is how it was worded).
I don't know man, I know I am speculating and writing scripts in my head, but I suspect that even if the war in Ukraine ends, the table top war is far from over.
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Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 01-08-2025 at 09:33 AM.
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It's tough to say whether a Russian soldier, after being shot at with an assortment of advanced Western/NATO weaponry in a war fought, in his mind, to protect Russia from Western/NATO threat will view the West in the end.
Putin and Russia have fooled countless Westerners with foreign propaganda. I suspect they have a decent system set up at home as well.
One thing always in the back of mind is if the war ends quickly, what happens when the hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers return (and that have already returned) to Russia and try to adapt back to civilian life. There are going to be a lot of young, under or unemployed trained fighters returning to a shattered economy, many of who only signed up for the money to begin with. It's not that uncommon for soldiers to return from a long war and become angry with their own country or don't have the support to adjust to a civilian life.
It's exactly the kind of thing that breeds unrest, homegrown terrorism, and potentially revolution. Especially the ones from minority regions that already have anti-government organizations, or if Putin were to die soon leaving a power vacuum. Even the soldiers returning from Vietnam to the U.S. combined with the social climate created from the war, caused some pretty big societal and cultural changes, and I feel the Ukraine was could have a similar effect on Russia. Many will really start to wonder what was the point.
I know this borders on writing fan fiction, but I can see a situation where an end to the war in Ukraine, even with terms more favourable to Russia, brings a lot of baggage back to Russia. I can visualize a situation where Putin actually gets overthrown and the new government is willing to make some amends with the West in exchange for full sanctions relief and financial support (or straight up bribes). They are largely silenced at the moment, but there are anti-Putin people in Russia and I would not be surprised if many more come out of the shadows if the political climate allows for it. Territories in Ukraine could be used as a bargaining chip if that were to happen. I believe the Trump plan only says that Russia will be allowed to occupy the areas of Ukraine it holds, but not that those areas will become recognized as Russia (I could be wrong, but I thought that is how it was worded).
I don't know man, I know I am speculating and writing scripts in my head, but I suspect that even if the war in Ukraine ends, the table top war is far from over.
Anything can happen and your scenario sounds just as likely as others.
The same post-war problems that Russia will have will happen in Ukraine too. Combat veterans who perhaps don't like the direction their country is going after they risked their lives to save it etc. Especially if hostilities end with parts of the East being controlled by Russia - they might feel like they were stabbed in the back, and their comrades died for nothing. Future veterans' groups might turn on government leadership, and Zelenskyy himself. Don't forget that the Russian cyber war machine will never stop and disinformation will infiltrate every part of Ukrainian society.
What's the saying? War isn't hell. War is war and hell is hell. And of the two, war is worse.
The same post-war trauma will happen with Ukraine too, without a doubt. Albeit they will be in a better position when it comes to rebuilding and financial aid, but we shouldn't pretend that it will be a glorious victory and the country is on it's feet with investments pouring in. Was talking with my wife last night and things like PTSD services, mental health aid and psychological help is pretty much non-existent there. Mental health issues are still seen as extremely taboo and something to be ashamed to speak of.
We were watching TV last night and there was some ad on TV about 1.3 million Canadians suffering from mental health issues and she said it's amazing that Canada discusses it, because where she's from no one talks about it. There is even an ongoing discussion in one of her online UA women Calgary groups where the women there are happy to learn there are mental health services here. Not enough by any means and plenty of work to be done, but at the very least it exists.
I recall hearing Zelensky speak a while ago about needing to build, manage and staff these kinds of facilities because the country will need it. Hopefully that is the case and it happens.
Last edited by Huntingwhale; 01-08-2025 at 10:25 AM.
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Ideally there will be funds provided to rebuild, and the soldiers can receive employment in rebuilding, giving them meaning and hope and that their sacrifices lead to something better. That alone would be a good help on the mental side.
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Lex Fridman is such a doorknob. It is aggravating that people like him have been elevated so much. He got his start with looney conspiracy videos (like aliens in ancient ruins level ####) on youtube and now he's interviewing Zelensky. Let me off this ####in ride.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monahammer
Lex Fridman is such a doorknob. It is aggravating that people like him have been elevated so much. He got his start with looney conspiracy videos (like aliens in ancient ruins level ####) on youtube and now he's interviewing Zelensky. Let me off this ####in ride.
I agree with much of what you say, but in particular I find his interview style is hard to listen to. Multiple questions in a row, musing out loud after asking the questions and interrupting. When Lex isn't speaking, they can be pretty good.
To his credit, the guests are regularly notable in their credentials or important public figures, sometimes both. Zelensky isn’t that surprising. The other thing I can appreciate is that for better or worse, he has guests with some very different perspectives. On Ukraine he's had John Mearsheimer (sp?) and Oliver Stone crying for poor victim Russia, also Fiona Hill and now Zelensky providing good counterpoint, among others.
The new regime won't give a #### about Donbas/Crimea, and Ukraine should be able to retake it.
I’m not so sure of that. Donbas is very mineral rich with basic things like coal plus there are mineable rare earth metals. Crimea gives access to The Black Sea and there are large untapped natural gas deposits. Perfect oligarch stuff.
Ideally there will be funds provided to rebuild, and the soldiers can receive employment in rebuilding, giving them meaning and hope and that their sacrifices lead to something better. That alone would be a good help on the mental side.
That's no way to treat veterans
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Perun with another interesting video, related to the now couple of weeks old news of Ukraine completing the first known ground attack mission with a fully unmanned force.
(Ukraine is planning to significantly increase it's UGV use in the next couple of years.)
Last edited by Itse; 01-13-2025 at 01:38 AM.
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Overnight, Ukrainian forces repelled another big Shahed drone attack. Out of 94 launched, 60 were shot down and another 34 were supressed by electronic warfare. https://twitter.com/user/status/1878364669313781893
Russians in Kursk reportedly destroyed a North Korean SAM based on the Tor-M2, but tried to pass it off as a "Western air defense system" in their own channels. https://twitter.com/user/status/1878550254649217229
Gazprom is planning a mass layoff in its central office and the St. Petersburg branch, Russian media report. Allegedly, Russia's biggest corporation will fire almost half of its "central apparatus" staff. https://twitter.com/user/status/1878771293488582964
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Man- the anti russia propoganda in this thread is real. based on this thread, id think ukraine is at the doorsteps of moscow. russia holds vast chunks of ukraine territory yet all this thread shows is russian casualities, equipment losses etc. what about ukraine? present a two sided picture if you want to present one at all.
What are we supposed to be other than anti-Russin in this thread? In this war, there is clearly a bad aggressor side. Feel free to post feel-good stories of Russian battle victories over Ukrainians.
Cheese is mostly the one posting updates and he's free to post whatever he wants. He's not under any obligation to show anything else that may or may not hurt your feelings.
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