2020/2021 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[Buff]

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

Do people really not understand what Wins Above Replacement is?

Not a clue.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by stang

Explain it please

For defensive percentiles? Actually very simple it’s based on Corsi aka shot attempts at even strength

About 95% of the league has more favorable shot attempt differential than Sean Monahan 5v5 over the last 5 years. Not good

Offense is more complicated because it factors in finishing ability based on G/60

[neo45]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

So you are telling me that Johnny Gaudreau is a better defensive player than Monahan. Which is why Sutter puts Gaudreau on PK all the time right?

Well it’s 5v5 so PK is irrelevant

Plus don’t think any coach is going to put either guy out there on the PK with any regularity. There are better ways to utilize them and neither would be good at it


But yes Gaudreau got hemmed in his zone a lot less than Monahan since they stopped playing together. As to why that is it’s probably a lot of factors

[Ashasx]

It's amazing how people will jump through hoops to blame the Flames defensive woes on Gaudreau but when presented with objective data they completely disregard it.

I think Monahan provides value to this team, but let's not kid ourselves. He is brutal defensively.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

It's amazing how people will jump through hoops to blame the Flames defensive woes on Gaudreau but when presented with objective data they completely disregard it.

I think Monahan provides value to this team, but let's not kid ourselves. He is brutal defensively.

Agreed. I am not going to sell him for peanuts, but if the right offer comes (or overpayment), then you bid him farewell.

I think he was getting better defensively under Sutter, but when you start working on one end of the game you are going to suffer from the other. So, if one misses the PPG Monahan, then you're not going to get the best defense from him. That's just how it is with Monahan.

Might be best to see how he does a whole season with Sutter at helm.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

As a concept yes, how it actually measures, no. WAR is pretty much useless in hockey, and any comparison of player versus player shows this. You can look at well known defensive nightmares like McDrai and see this.

My point exactly. These silly fancy stats really mean nothing when you do comparisons between players and actually apply the eyeball test. There is no one on this planet, outside of Edmonton, that is going to argue that McDavid or Draisaitl play defense, care about defense, or can even spell defense. These stats are BS and have been since Oiler fans started dreaming them up to claim Hemsky was a superstar, Horcoff was a number one center, and Conklin was better than Brodeur. It is sad how many people have been sucked into these empty measures.

[Ashasx]

nm

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

My point exactly. These silly fancy stats really mean nothing when you do comparisons between players and actually apply the eyeball test. There is no one on this planet, outside of Edmonton, that is going to argue that McDavid or Draisaitl play defense, care about defense, or can even spell defense. These stats are BS and have been since Oiler fans started dreaming them up to claim Hemsky was a superstar, Horcoff was a number one center, and Conklin was better than Brodeur. It is sad how many people have been sucked into these empty measures.

Did you even look at the graphs i posted a post after you? of course you didn't! You had your mind made up already. Those fancy stats show McDavid at 3% for Defense, and Draisaitl at 0%. You just needed a reason to criticize another tool - stats. You do that with everything that doesn't fit your opinion, and frankly it gets old.



People aren't suggesting trading Monahan for a bag of pucks. People are saying that a GM wouldn't want to overpay for Monahan after the season he had. He won't get a return strictly based on offensive career averages. It doesn't matter what you use, the eye test or fancy stats, they both suggest that Monahan's stock comes with a high risk.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

My point exactly. These silly fancy stats really mean nothing when you do comparisons between players and actually apply the eyeball test. There is no one on this planet, outside of Edmonton, that is going to argue that McDavid or Draisaitl play defense, care about defense, or can even spell defense. These stats are BS and have been since Oiler fans started dreaming them up to claim Hemsky was a superstar, Horcoff was a number one center, and Conklin was better than Brodeur. It is sad how many people have been sucked into these empty measures.

I don’t know where you are getting this “fancy stats that show McDrai are good defensively” argument from. No one is making that argument and no visual tool I’ve posted would indicate that

[dammage79]

I think it humorous people say Johnnys better defensively than anybody on the Flames. I implore anyone to go back and re watch games and tell me where Johnny is literally any time in the defensive zone compared to literally anybody else.

I'll tell you where. Literally by himself, near the blue line or at least 10 feet away from anyone just floating. And if an opposing player skates near him with the puck, he backs off and waves his stick..

Seriously, maybe the weird stats people use for facts say Monahan is worse, but at least he's in the thick of the action trying.

Just a frustrating narrative I can't wrap my head around. I know what my eyes saw. Your data arguments don't match it up.

[ComixZone]

And if Monahan was scoring/producing offense to the same degree as Draisaitl, we'd all be quite happy. If you can outscore your problems, that's one thing (...Draisaitl and McDavid both show that even that isn't conducive to team success though) - but Monahan can't outscore his own deficiencies.

At some point it's okay for us to look at this team's lack of success, and then look at the players and come to the conclusion that "oh, they're just not very good".

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I think it humorous people say Johnnys better defensively than anybody 9n the Flames. I implore anyone to go back and re watch games and tell me where Johnny is literally any time in the defensive zone compared to literally anybody else.

I'll tell you where. Literally by himself, near the blue line or at least 10 feet away from anyone just floating. And if an opposing player skates near him with the puck, he backs off and waves his stick..

Seriously, maybe the weird stats people use for facts say Monahan is worse, but at least he's in the thick of the action trying.

Just a frustrating narrative I can't wrap my head around. I know what my eyes saw. Your data arguments don't match it up.

I think you are getting sidetracked from the narrative here. Johnny's numbers improved away from Monahan because he got to play with two better defensive players in Lindholm and Tkachuk. I would also argue that the other team was playing a more defensive game against that line, than vs a line that had Monahan and Ritchie on it. That would in turn lead to better defensive numbers.



As for Monahan, I don't think anyone out there is saying that he isn't trying. He has a huge heart, and I don't doubt his character for a second. The problem is that he tends to find himself out of position defensively despite working his ass off.



That was also a problem when paired with Gaudreau, you had two players on one line that had a hard time playing D as a unit. As a result they would often get hemmed in their own zone. That way by the time they got the puck back, they were too tired to attack the other team off the rush and it would result in a dump in.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

Did you even look at the graphs i posted a post after you? of course you didn't!

No I didn't. Saw two twitter links and ignored them since twitter is such a great source of information.

You had your mind made up already. Those fancy stats show McDavid at 3% for Defense, and Draisaitl at 0%. You just needed a reason to criticize another tool - stats. You do that with everything that doesn't fit your opinion, and frankly it gets old.

I criticize those "tools" because they attempt to build a correlation between unrelated events and then explain causation of events loosely associated with those unrelated events. The chaos of the sport and inconsistency in data collection makes every single one of these so called "stats" useless. Hockey is not like baseball where specific actions have binary outcomes and you can clearly measure and chart those events. You can no sooner model the sport of hockey by using shots on goal as a basis for everything than you can model baseball using number of throws any player makes during a game. Context of each event matters, and the stats used to try and model hockey are completely void of context. Context is manufactured in the comparison between unrelated events, which ultimately provides inaccurate or no meaning at all.

People aren't suggesting trading Monahan for a bag of pucks. People are saying that a GM wouldn't want to overpay for Monahan after the season he had. He won't get a return strictly based on offensive career averages. It doesn't matter what you use, the eye test or fancy stats, they both suggest that Monahan's stock comes with a high risk.

Some are. Some have said Monahan should be exposed in the expansion draft. One suggested he could clear waivers. All of that is ridiculous. What makes it even more outrageous is many of the same drool over other players who had worse seasons. There is no doubt Monahan had a off year, but so did the entire team. Monahan does come with a level of risk, but so does every player. You have to determine if the juice is worth the squeeze. The statistical comparisons presented do not determine anything.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I think it humorous people say Johnnys better defensively than anybody 9n the Flames. I implore anyone to go back and re watch games and tell me where Johnny is literally any time in the defensive zone compared to literally anybody else.

I'll tell you where. Literally by himself, near the blue line or at least 10 feet away from anyone just floating. And if an opposing player skates near him with the puck, he backs off and waves his stick..

Seriously, maybe the weird stats people use for facts say Monahan is worse, but at least he's in the thick of the action trying.

Just a frustrating narrative I can't wrap my head around. I know what my eyes saw. Your data arguments don't match it up.

If a player is great offensively such that he has the puck a lot, he’s good defensively because he doesn’t give up much to the other team. That’s where Johnny would outshine Monny.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I think it humorous people say Johnnys better defensively than anybody 9n the Flames. I implore anyone to go back and re watch games and tell me where Johnny is literally any time in the defensive zone compared to literally anybody else.

I'll tell you where. Literally by himself, near the blue line or at least 10 feet away from anyone just floating. And if an opposing player skates near him with the puck, he backs off and waves his stick..

Seriously, maybe the weird stats people use for facts say Monahan is worse, but at least he's in the thick of the action trying.

Just a frustrating narrative I can't wrap my head around. I know what my eyes saw. Your data arguments don't match it up.

??? who is saying Gaudreau is the best defensive player on the Flames ???

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by neo45

Well it’s 5v5 so PK is irrelevant

Plus don’t think any coach is going to put either guy out there on the PK with any regularity. There are better ways to utilize them and neither would be good at it


But yes Gaudreau got hemmed in his zone a lot less than Monahan since they stopped playing together. As to why that is it’s probably a lot of factors

PK is relevant because you dont get put on PK unless the coach thinks you are decent at positional defence. And Sutter used Monahan on the PK consistently.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

??? who is saying Gaudreau is the best defensive player on the Flames ???

That’s not what he was saying. He meant Gaudreau isn’t better than anybody else on the Flames, defensively. It’s a pretty arguable point.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

My point exactly. These silly fancy stats really mean nothing when you do comparisons between players and actually apply the eyeball test. There is no one on this planet, outside of Edmonton, that is going to argue that McDavid or Draisaitl play defense, care about defense, or can even spell defense. These stats are BS and have been since Oiler fans started dreaming them up to claim Hemsky was a superstar, Horcoff was a number one center, and Conklin was better than Brodeur. It is sad how many people have been sucked into these empty measures.

I do t mind advanced stats at all. But I find WAR to be pretty useless for hockey (versus say baseball).

[Macman]

Seth Jones to test free agent market and possibly get traded prior to free agency. Wonder if the Flames have called as well. Might be a good fit here depending on what the Flames are planning going forward. I doubt he'll come here though.

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2021...eth-jones.html

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

??? who is saying Gaudreau is the best defensive player on the Flames ???

Nobody. He's worst, he's better than nobody.

Defensively 5v5 the Flames may as well deploy the pk unit on the ice, at least they're built to defend 4v5.

He's a cherry picking liability defensively. Always too high to do anything and rarely blow the facoff dots waiting for the outlet.

Problem with that is, the rest of the line loses possession when down a line mate.