The Blue Jays: 2009 Season Thread

[flambers]

Originally Posted by moon

This is where I think some stats geeks get caught up in their made up numbers and totally ignore what you see by actually watching the games.

There is no way that Rios has been close to fantastic, let alone nothing short of fantastic. And for long stretches he is barely above average.

Totally agree....

[ShaolinFlame]

Originally Posted by moon

I know that it is baseball and any stat geek can manipulate the numbers to make Varitek look like a combo of Ted Williams and Babe Ruth, but I find it particularly difficult to believe a site that has this line:

This is where I think some stats geeks get caught up in their made up numbers and totally ignore what you see by actually watching the games.

There is no way that Rios has been close to fantastic, let alone nothing short of fantastic. And for long stretches he is barely above average.

Any person who watches Jays games can get caught up in only remembering terrible no swing SOs while forgetting the good hits and plus defense.

A game like baseball has to be stat dependent, as the season is 162 games. There is no way you judge a player based on memory, unless you are the Rainman and you have to catch the Jays at 5 instead of the Wheel.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by ShaolinFlame

Any person who watches Jays games can get caught up in only remembering terrible no swing SOs while forgetting the good hits and plus defense.

A game like baseball has to be stat dependent, as the season is 162 games. There is no way you judge a player based on memory, unless you are the Rainman and you have to catch the Jays at 5 instead of the Wheel.

Yet a stat will say the player is fantastic while the GM has said multiple times that Rios is having an off year....

[ShaolinFlame]

Originally Posted by flambers

Yet a stat will say the player is fantastic while the GM has said multiple times that Rios is having an off year....

If you read the page it would actually show he is having an off year. His stats have declined since the contract was signed (minimally however). He is still a plus wins player, getting paid a fraction what wells is (who is pretty much even). The stats show that compared with league averages, Rios is worth the dollar value of his contract (especially considering that 20 mil was up front).

Wells has the second worst contract in baseball (See Zito), with +1.5 wins. Rios, playing a position that he shouldn't be, in an off year, is still worth +6.5 wins so far.

Compared with most corner OFs in the game, Rios is among the best in defense, and top 15 in hitting (over a 2 years as a sample). As a CF, his defense should improve (especially with his huge plus arm).

I'm sorry, but I just don't see the logic in releasing a 29 year old Alex Rios. Ship out Wells and cash for peanuts and you are way better off. The only way this makes any sense to me is if Doc has the pen in his hand to sign an extension, and nobody will even look at wells.

[moon]

Originally Posted by ShaolinFlame

Any person who watches Jays games can get caught up in only remembering terrible no swing SOs while forgetting the good hits and plus defense.

A game like baseball has to be stat dependent, as the season is 162 games. There is no way you judge a player based on memory, unless you are the Rainman and you have to catch the Jays at 5 instead of the Wheel.

I agree with using stats but as I said it is when you get into the stat manipulation like the blog (or whatever it is) does that you can start to get into trouble.

I am not saying use watching the games as the be all and end all but that it should be used along with the stats to determine the overall rating.

Using either stats or watching as the only way to judge players isn't a good way to do it. There are aspects of the game that stats cannot and will not pick up.

And in my view anyone who has watched Rios the past two years can clearly see that he has not been fantastic.

[Saint Troy]

Originally Posted by moon

I know that it is baseball and any stat geek can manipulate the numbers to make Varitek look like a combo of Ted Williams and Babe Ruth, but I find it particularly difficult to believe a site that has this line:



This is where I think some stats geeks get caught up in their made up numbers and totally ignore what you see by actually watching the games.

There is no way that Rios has been close to fantastic, let alone nothing short of fantastic. And for long stretches he is barely above average.

Well said, he has been a major disappointment with a questionable attitude.

[Saint Troy]

Originally Posted by ShaolinFlame

Any person who watches Jays games can get caught up in only remembering terrible no swing SOs while forgetting the good hits and plus defense.

A game like baseball has to be stat dependent, as the season is 162 games. There is no way you judge a player based on memory, unless you are the Rainman and you have to catch the Jays at 5 instead of the Wheel.

But to be stat dependent is foolish, if this were the case Scouts would not be needed. I am all for using saber metrics, but to let them tell the complete story is idiotic.

[ShaolinFlame]

Originally Posted by moon

I agree with using stats but as I said it is when you get into the stat manipulation like the blog (or whatever it is) does that you can start to get into trouble.

Fangraphs is highly regarded and respected as one of the most accurate and informing analysis sites out there. They really do have some of the coolest ways to analyze talent. I highly recommend checking it out. I have never seen any baseball blog discount the conclusions of fan graphs.

They get more in depth than most GMs do. Whether or not that is a bad thing is up to the beholder.

Edit: I am not saying I base my evaluation of players strictly on numbers. I am saying that Rios is better than he appears, an enigma of sorts. Like I said before, it is a lot easier to remember the bad and forget the good on a team like this.

Heres a question for you guys, if you could move either, which would you move, Rios or Wells?

[bluejays]

If JP lets the guy go for absolutely zilch, I'd personally be so pissed. The guy certainly regressed last year and this year, but he and his contract are not worth dumping for nothing. He's getting what, $11M/season? That's bad for what he's done, but not terribly bad enough as a salary dump. The guy is still young, has a cannon of an arm and can run to a degree. IMO, there are some mechanical problems to his stance, but that's about it. If you trade him, you deal him for something while paying a portion of his salary, don't just salary dump the guy. His potential is there. WTF Riccardi.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by moon

I know that it is baseball and any stat geek can manipulate the numbers to make Varitek look like a combo of Ted Williams and Babe Ruth, but I find it particularly difficult to believe a site that has this line:



This is where I think some stats geeks get caught up in their made up numbers and totally ignore what you see by actually watching the games.

There is no way that Rios has been close to fantastic, let alone nothing short of fantastic. And for long stretches he is barely above average.

If you say so.

Stats actually understand the balance between offense and defense. For most people a guy like Adam Dunn is a great player. But his pathetic fielding almost entirely negates his ability to hit for power and get on base.

Rios is the kind of player that isn't anything special offensively, but his elite fielding is what puts him at another level.

It's funny because people watching the games usually totally ignore things that stats prove. In Rios' case, his massive range. I know a guy who insists Rios is terrible defensively because he doesn't play the fence very well and rarely makes highlight diving catches. But in the long run those types of plays are few and far between and having great range is a lot more beneficial defensively. But great range doesn't get you on Sportscentre.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by moon

I agree with using stats but as I said it is when you get into the stat manipulation like the blog (or whatever it is) does that you can start to get into trouble.

What stat manipulation is going on here exactly?

The stats reputable sites like FanGraphs use aren't just created by randoms as their favorite way to judge players.

The stats that are heavily used in sabermetric sites are ones that have shown a high correlation to team success.

[Saint Troy]

There is absolutely nothing about Rios that is elite, he has good range, good arm but he's lost all accuracy because he throws from a poor arm slot now. Good speed, average base runner, doesn't hit for power, average rbi guy.

[moon]

Originally Posted by JayP

If you say so.

Good to see you agree.

Stats actually understand the balance between offense and defense. For most people a guy like Adam Dunn is a great player. But his pathetic fielding almost entirely negates his ability to hit for power and get on base.

I would say that watching Dunn play would clearly show that he isn't a great player to anyone who watches and that for many that look only at stats it is easy to get fooled into thinking that he is better than he is.

Rios is the kind of player that isn't anything special offensively, but his elite fielding is what puts him at another level.

Does that "elite" fielding include the numerous mental errors he makes?

I am not sure I have seen a guy drop the ball so many times when trying to pick it up off the ground.

[ShaolinFlame]

Are we on some sort of delay, or is another important night of blue jays season being interrupted by another team? The mission statement from Rogers says they only preempt the jays to show division games...

[moon]

Originally Posted by JayP

What stat manipulation is going on here exactly?

The stats reputable sites like FanGraphs use aren't just created by randoms as their favorite way to judge players.

The stats that are heavily used in sabermetric sites are ones that have shown a high correlation to team success.

Any system that uses stats to predict how many more wins a guy brings to a team is manipulating stats.

Any stats that say that Rios has been nothing short of fantastic the past two seasons automatically has major flaws.

[moon]

Originally Posted by ShaolinFlame

Edit: I am not saying I base my evaluation of players strictly on numbers. I am saying that Rios is better than he appears, an enigma of sorts. Like I said before, it is a lot easier to remember the bad and forget the good on a team like this.

And I am not saying he sucks, just that he certainly hasn't been anything close to fantastic at anytime in his career and especially not the last two years.

Heres a question for you guys, if you could move either, which would you move, Rios or Wells?

I am also not advocating getting rid of Rios, but of course any rational person would have to choose Wells. There is no argument that could be made to move Rios over Wells (other than Wells is impossible to move.)

[Saint Troy]

On a different note, the Jays need to reinstate their world series uniforms immediately.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by ShaolinFlame

Edit: I am not saying I base my evaluation of players strictly on numbers. I am saying that Rios is better than he appears, an enigma of sorts. Like I said before, it is a lot easier to remember the bad and forget the good on a team like this.?

Well said.

Rios is an easy target based on a few things:
1) His tendency to make bone-headed plays.
We all know the ones I'm talking about - throwing to the wrong bag, over-running second, not tagging up on a fly ball. The problem with this is that these are the sorts of plays that stick in people's minds when they think of Alex Rios. However over the course of a 162 game season the actual impact of the occasional bone-headed play is basically negligible.

2) He's not a spectacular defender.
I can't actually remember the last time Rios made a highlight of the night type catch. Most of those types of catches (especially in the OF) are the product of getting a bad jump or simply having poor range.

3) His potential was higher than what he turn into.
I don't get this one, but it's true. I know lots of people who say Rios should be a 30 HR guy. But he's not and likely never will be. But he's still a valuable player even if he doesn't develop to be the superstar the Jays needed him to be. Snider is going to feel the wrath of this in the coming years unless he turns out to be an MVP candidate.

[tanguay'sstillgood]

Originally Posted by ShaolinFlame

Are we on some sort of delay, or is another important night of blue jays season being interrupted by another team? The mission statement from Rogers says they only preempt the jays to show division games...

Just another game Sportsnet doesnt want us to watch. Insane stupidity running this network.

[ShaolinFlame]

Originally Posted by moon

Any system that uses stats to predict how many more wins a guy brings to a team is manipulating stats.

Any stats that say that Rios has been nothing short of fantastic the past two seasons automatically has major flaws.

I think the article is saying he is fantastic when compared to Wells and the rest of the OF.

You do understand that a lot of moneyball GMs use the very same sabermetric systems to evaluate talent? If these stats are bull, then Billy Beane is a loser, and Boston is a poorly managed franchise who got lucky - twice.

Do you still use wins to evaluate pitching talent? (joke)

For all this hating on Rios, I haven't seen you provide any other options. Keep Wells and run Lind-Wells-Snider w Bautista..... If you think you have seen bad D this year...

It would also be cool to unload Rios and sign J Bay. I am a big supporter of signing Canadian talent to help market the team and sell tickets.

Edit: I HATE ROGERS COMMUNICATIONS SO FREAKING MUCH. I WANT TO HONOUR THE WORLD SERIES TEAM WITH EVERYBODY ELSE!

Edit 2 (From Wiki on Sabrmetrics/moneyball)

Teams which appear to value the concepts of sabermetrics are often said to be playing "Moneyball". Baseball traditionalists, in particular some scouts and media members, decry the sabermetric revolution and have disparaged Moneyball for emphasizing concepts of sabermetrics over more traditional methods of player evaluation. Nevertheless, the impact of Moneyball upon major league front offices is undeniable. In its wake, teams such as the New York Mets, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Indians[1], and the Toronto Blue Jays have hired full-time Sabermetric analysts.