Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[$ven27]

Originally Posted by GoFlamesGo1989

Monahan and Barkov are both for sure centres. Mackinnon is a great player put I see him as more of a winger in the NHL. Plus look at the size and skill of both Monahan and Barkov. If I had my choice I would go with the big skilled Canadian Centremen. He has Jonathan Toews written all over him.

Same was said for Stamkos.

[StrykerSteve]

Could you imagine having Backlund, MacKinnon and Monahan as your Centers? *drool*

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

Could you imagine having Backlund, MacKinnon and Monahan as your Centers? *drool*

I wouldn't be heartbroken if we didn't end up with Mackinnon or Drouin. I have a feeling Monahan, Barkov or Lindholm fit our needs better anyway. Monahan, Backlund, Horak & Reinhart as depth down the middle actually looks really good.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

I wouldn't be heartbroken if we didn't end up with Mackinnon or Drouin. I have a feeling Monahan, Barkov or Lindholm fit our needs better anyway. Monahan, Backlund, Horak & Reinhart as depth down the middle actually looks really good.

Don't forget Jankowski in that group too.

[StrykerSteve]

Originally Posted by New Era

Don't forget Jankowski in that group too.

Jankowski is three years from getting a sniff at the NHL, at least.

[kn]

We won't be getting both MacKinnon and Monahan barring trading for an additional pick in the Top 10, maybe even Top 5.

I'm very hesitant to waste a pick on Nichushkin, regardless of his skill level. I don't care what he says in the interviews about how much he wants to play in the NHL, he has two years left in the KHL followed by several million reasons why he'll likely stay there since we're limited in what we can offer him on an ELC. Even if he does take a several million dollar paycut to join the NHL, he can easily bolt like any other Russian if he doesn't like his playing time, contract, the travel, the facilities, or whatever other reason to hold the team over a barrel.

With all due respect to Craig Button, where he's from makes a huge difference in this case.

[kn]

According to sportclubstats.com, Calgary's odds:

24) 8%
25) 11%
26) 14%
27) 19%
28) 23%
29) 13%
30) 3%

67% chance we finish in the bottom four and pick no worse than 5th. But only a 16% chance we are guaranteed a top 3 pick. Our odds go way down if we finish .500 or better over the remaining seven games.

Florida has a 77% chance of finishing last, Colorado 16%.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by kn

According to sportclubstats.com, Calgary's odds:

24) 8%
25) 11%
26) 14%
27) 19%
28) 23%
29) 13%
30) 3%

67% chance we finish in the bottom four and pick no worse than 5th. But only a 16% chance we are guaranteed a top 3 pick. Our odds go way down if we finish .500 or better over the remaining seven games.

Florida has a 77% chance of finishing last, Colorado 16%.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

So it looks like it will be a 3rd, 4th, or 5th pick in all likelihood.

Would you guys be open to trading that pick to columbus for all 3 of their 1sts?
currently 12th 15th and 23rd

I think columbus does that deal, they already have a deep prospect pool and if they believe there is an impact player available at the flames pick i think they would trade up to get him.
for the flames it makes sense too, adding 5 first rounders (currently 12th, 15th, 20th, 23rd, and 29th), would instantly transform the flames into one of the deepest prospect pools in the league.

here's how the trade would look based on current standing

iss list

3)mackinnon
for
12)pulock
15)zykov
23)hagg

craig's list

3)mackinnon
for
12)shinkaruk
15)morrisey
23)dickenson


here's how the trade would have went down in previous draft classes

2012

3) galchenyuk
for
12) grigorenko
15)ceci
23)matheson

2011

3)huberdeau
for
12)ryan murphy
15)jt miller
23)joe morrow

2010

3)gudbranson
for
12)fowler
15)forbort
23)pysyk

2009

3)duchene
for
12)de haan
15)holland
23)erixon

2008

3)bogosian
for
12)myers
15)karlsson
23)cuma

2007

3)turris
for
12)mcdonagh
15)plante
23)blum

2006

3)toews
for
12)little
15)helenius
23)varlomov

2005

3)j.johnson
for
12)m.staal
15)o'marra
23)bergfors

2004

3)barker
for
12)aj thelen
15)radulov
23)meszaros

2003

3)horton
for
12)jessimen
15)nilsson
23)kesler


now most times that trade is a lose from a flames perspective, but with the multitude of 1sts we would be depending on the scouting staff to make the right choices in the bottom two thirds of the draft.

would you do it? and if not how high would the flames pick have to be before you would?

[PlayfulGenius]

The islanders offered something similar to CBJ for the 2nd overall pick last draft, I think. It was rumored to be all of their picks, but I'm not sure what picks they had available... Not multiple 1sts, likely

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

The islanders offered something similar to CBJ for the 2nd overall pick last draft, I think. It was rumored to be all of their picks, but I'm not sure what picks they had available... Not multiple 1sts, likely

It was:

4th overall
34th overall
65th overall
103rd overall
125th overall
155th overall
185th overall

for

2nd overall

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

The islanders offered something similar to CBJ for the 2nd overall pick last draft, I think. It was rumored to be all of their picks, but I'm not sure what picks they had available... Not multiple 1sts, likely

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2012/...r-draft-picks/

That’s right, for the Jackets’ No. 2 pick, the Islanders offered pick Nos. 4, 34, 65, 103, 125, 155 and 185,” Portzline reported Monday. “The bounty would have given the Jackets the following picks: 4, 31, 34, 62, 65, 95, 103, 125, 152, 155, 182 and 185. And if that weren’t enough, the Jackets could have had the Kings’ No. 30 if they wanted it.”

[PlayfulGenius]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2012/...r-draft-picks/

That’s right, for the Jackets’ No. 2 pick, the Islanders offered pick Nos. 4, 34, 65, 103, 125, 155 and 185,” Portzline reported Monday. “The bounty would have given the Jackets the following picks: 4, 31, 34, 62, 65, 95, 103, 125, 152, 155, 182 and 185. And if that weren’t enough, the Jackets could have had the Kings’ No. 30 if they wanted it.”

How the hell do the CBJs not take that deal????

[T@T]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

How the hell do the CBJs not take that deal????

Because any pick after the second round has about a 1% chance of ever being a regular NHL player let alone an impact player.

[Dagger]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

How the hell do the CBJs not take that deal????

The only two that had superstar potential in the draft were Yakupov and Murray. The Jackets were in the process of dealing Nash at the time, so they needed a "face" to bring to fans as well. I'm not saying Murray is Stamkos or Tavares just that he could be a Doughty - but then he tore his shoulder.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

How the hell do the CBJs not take that deal????

CBJs already had a decent prospect pool at the time of the draft. They probably felt that the quality drop off after Murray wasn't worth the quantity they were receiving back.

Columbus was also focused on getting back into the playoffs as quickly as possible and wanted the more NHL ready prospect(s) which Murray was reportedly the most NHL ready.

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

CBJs already had a decent prospect pool at the time of the draft. They probably felt that the quality drop off after Murray wasn't worth the quantity they were receiving back.

Columbus was also focused on getting back into the playoffs as quickly as possible and wanted the more NHL ready prospect(s) which Murray was reportedly the most NHL ready.

I can't help but to think that they would have been better off taking the deal, and packaging those extra picks with some roster players for NHLers. Maybe it's not a likely scenario, but they could have been in a very flexible position of strength.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by handgroen

So it looks like it will be a 3rd, 4th, or 5th pick in all likelihood.

Would you guys be open to trading that pick to columbus for all 3 of their 1sts?
currently 12th 15th and 23rd

I think columbus does that deal, they already have a deep prospect pool and if they believe there is an impact player available at the flames pick i think they would trade up to get him.
for the flames it makes sense too, adding 5 first rounders (currently 12th, 15th, 20th, 23rd, and 29th), would instantly transform the flames into one of the deepest prospect pools in the league.

would you do it? and if not how high would the flames pick have to be before you would?

Definitely would not do it unless all the potential franchise centres were taken before our pick. As long as MacKinnon, Barkov, Monahan or Lindholm are on the board I wouldn't deal down.

Too many potential franchise guys in the top 8 or so this year to consider dealing out of it IMO. This could be our one and only shot at drafting someone really special.

Would you deal a guy like Toews for three 2nd liners? To me that is kind of what you are suggesting we do. Unless we really hit one out of the park with those later 1sts you are dealing a potential top line talent for guys who don't have that same upside. We already have two extra 1sts to increase our prospect depth with. I can't imagine dealing out of the top 8, not a fan of that idea.

[SHOGUN]

I'll be happy with Drouin or Barkov.

[frinkprof]

There are definitely some tradeoffs to be debated on quality (higher picks) vs. quantity (number of picks). However, there is something to be said for having too much quantity in any one draft.

Every team right now starts out with a pick in each round of each draft, so 7 in total. If you hold onto all your picks and you end up with 2 NHL regulars out of those 7 picks, you're laughing. Some rebuilding teams have accumulated as many as 12-14 picks in a draft and have either used them all or packaged some of them to trade up in draft position.

-------------------------

Consider the 2008 draft for the New York Islanders.

At that time in their rebuild (which had just started), and given the depth of the draft class, they were looking for quantity over quality to replenish their abysmal prospect pool. They went in with some extra picks from deals made at the deadline, and then traded down twice in the first round (from 5th to 7th, then again to 9th, where they drafted Josh Bailey), acquiring later picks in that draft as well as the next draft (2009).

They selected 13 times in 2008 in total. The strategy of collecting lottery tickets has absolutely paid off. 4 of those picks are NHL regulars (Josh Bailey, Travis Hamonic, David Ullstrom, Matt Martin); 3 others remain in their system with a good chance of cracking the NHL lineup within the next year or so (2 of those 3 have high upside, Kevin Poulin and Matt Donovan); they retain rights on one more who plays in Europe and may come over (Kirill Petrov); and finally one other pick turned out to be an NHL regular with another club (Jared Spurgeon).

Now, on the other side of the coin is that in the process of attaining all these picks, they traded down to nine from five to pick Josh Bailey. Although an NHL regular, he's certainly not a star in the league or could really even be considered a core member of the team. Hamonic in the second round isn't a superstar either, but is a bit of a different story. However, yet another angle is that picking Bailey at 9 doesn't seem so bad when you consider that five through eight went Luke Schenn, Filatov, Colin Wilson, Mikkel Boedker; while Cody Hodgson and Kyle Beach when ten and eleven.

In contrast, the same Islanders went into the 2009 draft with a number of picks also (I think it was 11 or 12, but can't remember). They held the first overall plus another first (26th). They took a different approach and traded up a couple times (burning some of the extra picks in the process, mostly 2nd-4th rounders, 5 in total) to land at 12th overall. They of course kept the #1 and drafted John Tavares. The 12th overall that they did so much wheeling and dealing to attain was used to pick Calvin de Haan who may become a 2nd or 3rd pairing defenseman if he can manage to get and stay healthy, which is in serious doubt right now. A couple of their later-round selections may pan out or already have (goalie Anders Nilsson, NHL regular Casey Cizikas and recently-turned-pro-from-NCAA Anders Lee).

Two different approaches (quality vs. quantity) in two different drafts that, coupled with some luck (especially in the later rounds of 2008) have given the franchise a large share of the players that are making up the NHL (playoff-bound) team on the ice today and over the next few years.

-------------------------

Not sure how much of the above is directly transferable to the case of the Flames at the 2013 draft. First of all, I don't think the 2013 draft class is comparable to the 2008 or 2009 classes. Just an interesting case study in quantity vs. quality picks.

As for the suggestion above of attaining potentially 4 or 5 first round picks, I'm not so sure that's the best idea. Presuming that you would certainly want all of those picks to become a part of your system for their entry-level deals, that gives you potentially 4 or 5 entry-level contracts expiring in the same year or within a year of each other, without any one of them being a superstar-level player (i.e. top 5 pick). Not quite the same situation as the Oilers, but similar. I think a big part of building a team is staggering the big contracts and having a diversity in age groups. You can't just go all in one year and construct a World Juniors team. Having 3 first rounders is certainly a good thing. Doing a combination of trade-downs to end up with 4 or 5 might get to be too many all in the same draft. Could just as easily pay off big time though.

Just some thoughts.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by frinkprof

I think a big part of building a team is staggering the big contracts and having a diversity in age groups.

I keep hearing this argument and I say cross the bridge when you get there. It would be a nice problem to have and not a bad one. Seriously, the chances are, the first round picks won't start their NHL careers in the same year. If Flames management is smart enough, they won't rush the prospect. The top 5 pick might begin his NHL career at 18 and the latest 19. Other first round picks, especially defensemen and goalies, will start their NHL careers later unless they are really good (which is a good thing).

First round draft picks have a pretty high cap hit. What happens is that instead of allocating cap room for performance bonuses you have a known cap hit you have to make room for.