Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Classic. Really highlights the thrust of this whole thing.

Here you go. In all of it's Xitty glory from a week ago posted on Elmo's bird site. So much science.




And for good measure, here's a link to Trevor Tombe's post (which I think you failed to find as well):

https://thehub.ca/2024/09/05/trevor-tombe-the-great-divergence-canadas-economic-gap-with-the-u-s-reaches-a-new-record/#:~:text=To%20understand%20the%20full%20extent,)%2 C%20compared%20to%20Canada's%20%2444%2C400.

Thanks for linking again, this was a good read the first time you posted it. I especially liked how it showed the opposite of you were trying to say.

I noticed you cut off the rest of my post and still refuse to acknowledge or answer my questions. I guess it was wishful thinking to believe I’d actually get a well thought out response.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by SebC

I'm sure the 23% of Canadians who are not getting a benefit from that particular policy will appreciate that it's because they're not participating in something primarily commercial rather than something primarily religious, even though it's both.

They arent wasting money on a tree on the first place, so what "benefit" do you expect them to get.

People without kids / need to buy kids presents arent getting the benefit of that cut either

That's how a tax cut works - If you werent paying it before you don't get a break

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

Thanks for linking again, this was a good read the first time you posted it. I especially liked how it showed the opposite of you were trying to say.

Oh it does, hey?

Trudeau face science shows gap starting at his election.

Tombe's article confirms gap existed well before that.

But glad you agree it's misleading. It took you kicking and screaming, but we got there.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Oh it does, hey?

Trudeau face science shows gap starting at his election.

Tombe's article confirms gap existed well before that.

But glad you agree it's misleading. It took you kicking and screaming, but we got there.

Are you not able to comprehend that in none of my posts did I talk about how there is a gap? The only thing I talked about is the widening of the gap.

And here we are, like 28 posts later, and you’re still tap dancing around the actual argument. I couldn’t even take you kicking and screaming to answer that.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by SebC

I'm sure the 23% of Canadians who are not getting a benefit from that particular policy will appreciate that it's because they're not participating in something primarily commercial rather than something primarily religious, even though it's both.

Since when are government benefits or incentives universal? Do you support any benefit that is not universal? I don't appreciate not getting government dental care or getting an EV rebate or a GST rebate on a new home.

[Qwerty]

Since everyone on CP makes 6 digits, you realize anyone that makes over 150K is getting nothing? No free money for CP members!!

Had to of worked in 2023 and made 150K of less.

This is more beneficial to non-Alberta it seems as HST is a lot higher (at least from the 1 article I read)

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

Are you not able to comprehend that in none of my posts did I talk about how there is a gap? The only thing I talked about is the widening of the gap.

And here we are, like 28 posts later, and you’re still tap dancing around the actual argument. I couldn’t even take you kicking and screaming to answer that.

Yes you did talk about the widening of the gap. And you have finally (sort of) come around to the fact that Trudeau didn't start the gap, as the chud graph would have you believe. You get a shiny sticker.

I can see you're melting down somewhat, so before you ruin your own day, I'll throw you a bone. You'd like me to do what - explain how Trudeau's policies have widened the gap? I'll need you to articulate what bone you want me to throw.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Yes you did talk about the widening of the gap. And you have finally (sort of) come around to the fact that Trudeau didn't start the gap, as the chud graph would have you believe. You get a shiny sticker.

I can see you're melting down somewhat, so before you ruin your own day, I'll throw you a bone. You'd like me to do what - explain how Trudeau's policies have widened the gap? I'll need you to articulate what bone you want me to throw.

You know that saying “never argue with idiots, they’ll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience”? That’s been my day so far, so you can imagine how that feels.

I think I asked the questions quite clearly multiple times, but since you can’t click once and read, here it is again:

If oil prices are the reason for the gap widening around the time Trudeau was elected, how has the gap not closed at all in the last few years when Canadian oil prices are back up to where they were before they crashed? And how does Trudeau bear no responsibility for the consistent widening of the gap since he was elected, almost a decade ago?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

You know that saying “never argue with idiots, they’ll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience”? That’s been my day so far, so you can imagine how that feels.

I think I asked the questions quite clearly multiple times, but since you can’t click once and read, here it is again:

If oil prices are the reason for the gap widening around the time Trudeau was elected, how has the gap not closed at all in the last few years when Canadian oil prices are back up to where they were before they crashed? And how does Trudeau bear no responsibility for the consistent widening of the gap since he was elected, almost a decade ago?

I really don't want to get in the middle of Ozy going off the deep end for dubious reasons, but I'd just ask a counter question:

Given the widening gap between other advanced economies and the US is similar to the gap between Canada and the US, how can Trudeau's policies be to blame?

I do suspect that gap has a lot more to do with the US getting major benefits from tech growth that has global impacts and sales more than anything else, not a change in oil prices. And this isn't really an area Canada has the scale to compete at.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I really don't want to get in the middle of Ozy going off the deep end for dubious reasons, but I'd just ask a counter question:

Given the widening gap between other advanced economies and the US is similar to the gap between Canada and the US, how can Trudeau's policies be to blame?

I do suspect that gap has a lot more to do with the US getting major benefits from tech growth that has global impacts and sales more than anything else, not a change in oil prices. And this isn't really an area Canada has the scale to compete at.

I think that’s a great, thoughtful question - and my answer would be an example for contemplation. I think it’s clear from my post history and that I’m a big proponent of Canada’s oil and gas industry because it’s such a big part of Canada’s economy. When you look at Canada being a resource based economy, you need to take steps to encourage and support development of those resources, as it benefits all Canadians.

With that, you can’t implement policies like Bill C-69 or put in place carbon taxes, which place unnecessary strain on an industry that is incredibly capital intensive. It’s great for Canada to be a climate leader, but practices like that just handcuff the industry and it’s my belief that Canada can be a climate leader and still support industry. These are policies that take away from companies’ ability to re-invest capital, which help GDP to grow.

I 100% agree that the gap widening is partly a function of how well the US economy has done. But with that, I also think Canada has done itself no favours to support what has historically driven the Canadian economy to perform well, and priorities have shifted to things that don’t add relative value for Canadians.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

I think that’s a great, thoughtful question - and my answer would be an example for contemplation. I think it’s clear from my post history and that I’m a big proponent of Canada’s oil and gas industry because it’s such a big part of Canada’s economy. When you look at Canada being a resource based economy, you need to take steps to encourage and support development of those resources, as it benefits all Canadians.

With that, you can’t implement policies like Bill C-69 or put in place carbon taxes, which place unnecessary strain on an industry that is incredibly capital intensive. It’s great for Canada to be a climate leader, but practices like that just handcuff the industry and it’s my belief that Canada can be a climate leader and still support industry. These are policies that take away from companies’ ability to re-invest capital, which help GDP to grow.

I 100% agree that the gap widening is partly a function of how well the US economy has done. But with that, I also think Canada has done itself no favours to support what has historically driven the Canadian economy to perform well, and priorities have shifted to things that don’t add relative value for Canadians.

There's been no proposal better than carbon taxes to do this. "Trust industry" is not a viable climate plan. And climate is a huge and ignored issue.

[MelBridgeman]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

There's been no proposal better than carbon taxes to do this. "Trust industry" is not a viable climate plan. And climate is a huge and ignored issue.

What are carbon taxes going to do? Climate is a global problem a carbon tax in Canada WILL DO NOTHING.

"Trust Industry" is better than 'Trust Goverments" and you are pretty ignorant to think the private energy industry isn't on top of becoming greener, it just isn't true, they have the money and talent to do it, the goverments have a bunch of talking points that do nothing,

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

You know that saying “never argue with idiots, they’ll drag you down to their level and beat you with experience”? That’s been my day so far, so you can imagine how that feels.

Truer words have never been spoken. But happy to convert one.

Originally Posted by ThePrince

If oil prices are the reason for the gap widening around the time Trudeau was elected, how has the gap not closed at all in the last few years when Canadian oil prices are back up to where they were before they crashed? And how does Trudeau bear no responsibility for the consistent widening of the gap since he was elected, almost a decade ago?

The gap hasn't closed because macroeconomic activity in a global world continues to take hold:

- Canada's population has continued to grow during Trudeau's time. Per capita, if population growth outstrips production, then yes, the gap will widen, such as what was already happening prior to Trudeau's arrival.

- Global energy market has shifted due to increased competition from U.S. shale production, pipeline capacity issues, and regulatory challenges. All have hindered Canada's ability to fully capitalize on higher prices.

- Ever heard of the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted economies worldwide? The GDP per capita of many nations, including Canada, took a hit due to economic shutdowns, healthcare expenditures, and supply chain disruptions. It is disingenuous to attribute Canada's slower recovery solely to Trudeau's policies without considering this economy stunter. For everyone. Across the globe.

- Provincial policies and industry-specific trends play a large role in economic performance. For instance, Alberta's struggles with oil and gas production constraints stem in part from a lack of pipeline infrastructure and an inability to reach international markets. And yet, Alberta continues to produce at record levels, particularly compared to 2018.

- There are a number of external factors playing into this, such as geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and global economic trends, things that influence GDP growth far more than domestic policies alone.

Fair game to critique Trudeau's economic policies, but the argument presented fails to consider the multifaceted nature of GDP per capita trends. It oversimplifies the influence of oil prices, ignores global and provincial dynamics, and assumes a level of federal control over the economy that does not align with Canada’s federalist system.

Now back to you, what specific policies has Trudeau (and by that, I am sure you're adult enough to say the governing party/coalition of parties) enacted that has hampered GDP growth and parity with the US? Especially relative to other G20 countries who are also a considerable gap behind them? What do you have to say about private economic performance beyond government regulations? What has changed for Canada's economic engine in the last 50 years to lose ground?

Hopefully asking you this won't be an exercise in frustration like the last time.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by MelBridgeman

What are carbon taxes going to do? Climate is a global problem a carbon tax in Canada WILL DO NOTHING.

"Trust Industry" is better than 'Trust Goverments" and you are pretty ignorant to think the private energy industry isn't on top of becoming greener, it just isn't true, they have the money and talent to do it, the goverments have a bunch of talking points that do nothing,

There's a world in which everyone pollutes.

And there's a world in which everyone pollutes but policies are in place to reduce pollution and have those that do pay.

I know which reality I'd rather live in. Even China effectively has a cap-and-trade system for climate-oriented priorities.

[GGG]

If you want to compare the Trudeau affect to the Harper affect I think you need to do a 2-4 year lag. In general absent a specific policy that you can demonstrate a loss of GDP it’s generally not possible to attribute GDP growth or shrinkage to a government in power.

The discussion is a waste of time because there is no way to demonstrate causation or quantify the impact of legacy policy versus current policy

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

I think that’s a great, thoughtful question - and my answer would be an example for contemplation. I think it’s clear from my post history and that I’m a big proponent of Canada’s oil and gas industry because it’s such a big part of Canada’s economy. When you look at Canada being a resource based economy, you need to take steps to encourage and support development of those resources, as it benefits all Canadians.

With that, you can’t implement policies like Bill C-69 or put in place carbon taxes, which place unnecessary strain on an industry that is incredibly capital intensive. It’s great for Canada to be a climate leader, but practices like that just handcuff the industry and it’s my belief that Canada can be a climate leader and still support industry. These are policies that take away from companies’ ability to re-invest capital, which help GDP to grow.

I 100% agree that the gap widening is partly a function of how well the US economy has done. But with that, I also think Canada has done itself no favours to support what has historically driven the Canadian economy to perform well, and priorities have shifted to things that don’t add relative value for Canadians.

Appreciate the answer, I don't really agree but that's more on the principle that we should, you know, do something about climate change, and that I'm not totally convinced C-69 had an effect that economics of those projects would have decided anyway. In the end though, even with everything going Canada's way on oil and gas, I still think the gap in the graph would be there, perhaps 1/3rd smaller. Tech is just such a huge driver of GP growth in the US it's not really match-able with O&G.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by MelBridgeman

What are carbon taxes going to do? Climate is a global problem a carbon tax in Canada WILL DO NOTHING.

"Trust Industry" is better than 'Trust Goverments" and you are pretty ignorant to think the private energy industry isn't on top of becoming greener, it just isn't true, they have the money and talent to do it, the goverments have a bunch of talking points that do nothing,

We know trust Industry fails. It’s a tragedy of the commons scenario. A better phrase would be charge for externalities and then trust industry to optimize. Or set the regulatory goals and industry will optimize. Otherwise industry will produce profit and nothing else.

As to Carbon taxes the EU has legislation that will levy tariffs on goods from non-carbon priced jurisdictions so we are probably up to 1 billion people living under some sort of Carbon pricing regime. Your last paragraph is essentially an argument for the setting a price on carbon but not regulating the amount of carbon. Industry has the money and talent to do it, so let’s let them. We will price Carbon to make it profitable for them to do so.

Programs like Tier which slowly ratchet up the amount of emissions that are subject to the tax are a reasonable measure.

[MelBridgeman]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

There's a world in which everyone pollutes.

And there's a world in which everyone pollutes but policies are in place to reduce pollution and have those that do pay.

I know which reality I'd rather live in. Even China effectively has a cap-and-trade system for climate-oriented priorities.

It’s not enough to have policies aimed at reducing pollution—they need to be effective. Demand remains high, emissions aren’t decreasing, and much of it feels like virtue signaling. The current climate policy consensus, especially Trudeau’s vision, appears to be a poorly executed strategy lacking tangible results.

[Ozy_Flame]

The U.S. is far more diversified economically, has 10x the amount of people (larger labor force and domestic market), depends on trade way less with Canada than Canada does with the U.S., has far more entrepreneurship, venture capital and institutional knowledge with higher scale, and can pivot towards a cleaner economy more easily than Canada.

I am not sure why there is a debate to even be had here. Every country is struggling with keeping up with the U.S. If there are folks who prioritize being on the otherside of the gap (which is a weird goal in and of itself if you are already living a first world, high quality of life), then go for it.

Personally I think better comparisons can be had with countries like Australia, Britain, France, Germany and Brazil.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by MelBridgeman

What are carbon taxes going to do? Climate is a global problem a carbon tax in Canada WILL DO NOTHING.

"Trust Industry" is better than 'Trust Goverments" and you are pretty ignorant to think the private energy industry isn't on top of becoming greener, it just isn't true, they have the money and talent to do it, the goverments have a bunch of talking points that do nothing,

Trust Industry has gotten us to where we are. And I'm far from ignorant - I work with oil companies, and the regulators all the time. Private energy is not seriously trying to be greener - it's all either lip service or doing what they are required by government to do.