Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

So you disagree with a chart that shows growth rates of Canada matching the growth rate of the US for a couple decades, and then substantial divergence in GDP growth per capital after Trudeau took office?

Yet, that's exactly what the Tombe discussion also says. Which you agree with.

So you disagree with a chart, but agree with Tombe, who says the exact same thing?

Lmao. Okay then

Leave it to Maple MAGA to argue himself into a hot mess. Let me put it in crayon so you can understand:

The gap existed for a century. Chud puts a graph with the face of the guy he wants to #### as the break point. Doesn't realize the gap actually widens, as I furthered explained, that the 2014 oil crash just might have had something to do with it. In fact, it does.

But what can we expect from Maple MAGA seeing a graph with no context, and immediately blaming the PM? As per usual, a whole lot of vapid hot air.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Azure

Yup.

Very good sign for Canada if the Trump administration sees us as a partner to work with versus someone to fight with on the tariff front.

Unfortunately the reality is going to be both.

Sometimes I feel like I’m taking crazy pills and people just… paid zero attention to Trump’s last term? He’ll partner with anyone when he thinks it benefits the US, and he’ll fight with anyone when he thinks that’ll get his desired outcome instead.

Amazing how desperate people are to kiss the ring every time Trump does something that’s just… not stupid or as harmful as it could be.

Didn’t think it would start up again before he even took office though.

[Ozy_Flame]

Regarding Trump and Alberta, a timely article:

National Observer: Alberta oil is about to get Trumped

Much of this pro-Trump sentiment in Alberta is tied to the idea that he’ll re-approve the Keystone XL pipeline, which was torpedoed by Joe Biden when he came to power in 2021. But there’s no guarantee that TC Energy would want to proceed, given how many times that football has been yanked away in the past. They don’t even have the materials anymore: the steel that had been procured for Keystone XL was just sold to Cadiz Inc., which will use it to build a new groundwater banking project in the Mojave Desert. And Trump seems far more interested in increasing U.S. oil production than importing more oil from Canada.

“They’re going to dust off the ’drill, baby, drill’ playbook and do everything they can to push oil, natural gas and coal production,” said Ryan Bernstein, an industry consultant with McGuireWoods who served as chief of staff for North Dakota Republican Sen. John Hoeven, in an interview with Politico. All things being equal, more oil production in the US means lower prices for everyone — including, of course, Canadian companies. “My goal will be to cut your energy costs in half within 12 months after taking office,” Trump said in September. “We can do that.” To get there, according to Kpler lead oil analyst Matt Smith, oil prices would need to drop below $40 a barrel, a price that would destroy the profitability of almost every oilsands project going.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Azure

Very good sign for Canada if the Trump administration sees us as a partner to work with versus someone to fight with on the tariff front.

He's going to start a war that will create a lot of needless harm and destruction for everyone, but at least we'll be on the winning side!

[Azure]

Yeah that damn Trump. Not like the Biden administration didn't massively increase American oil production the last 4 years and yet the price hasn't gone to $40.

Some of you need to go read the Russia thread and then come back here.

What the world needs to do is curtail Russian oil production and increase North American oil & gas production. But hey, lets not provide an alternative method to get our oil & gas to market.

Russia is launching ICBMs at Ukraine, and we're whining about the US increasing oil production and Keystone XL being approved.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Azure

Yeah that damn Trump. Not like the Biden administration didn't massively increase American oil production the last 4 years and yet the price hasn't gone to $40.

Some of you need to go read the Russia thread and then come back here.

What the world needs to do is curtail Russian oil production and increase North American oil & gas production. But hey, lets not provide an alternative method to get our oil & gas to market.

Russia is launching ICBMs at Ukraine, and we're whining about the US increasing oil production and Keystone XL being approved.

Yeah, Trump is really known as a Russia hardliner who will happily help Canada get their product to market lol.

Great stuff as always.

[spotthefan]

Trudeau government to announce GST holiday and $250 Cheques

Didn't like the Ralph Bucks or Ford Bucks but if one side can do it so can the other.

I do like the pause on GST on certain items. This should be made permanent for children's items and groceries.

[GirlySports]

is no GST during the holidays on beer a good idea?

[spotthefan]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

is no GST during the holidays on beer a good idea?

Makes the buck a beer in Ontario truer!

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by spotthefan

Trudeau government to announce GST holiday and $250 Cheques

Didn't like the Ralph Bucks or Ford Bucks but if one side can do it so can the other.

I do like the pause on GST on certain items. This should be made permanent for children's items and groceries.

Sweet, free money! Thanks for finally doing something useful Justin.

The tax holiday should be extended to all food items and not just prepared food. I'm not necessarily sure that booze is the best choice but whatever.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by spotthefan

Trudeau government to announce GST holiday and $250 Cheques

Didn't like the Ralph Bucks or Ford Bucks but if one side can do it so can the other.

I do like the pause on GST on certain items. This should be made permanent for children's items and groceries.

That’s such blatant vote-buying pandering, it’s hilarious. Not that the CPC wouldn’t pull the same shenanigans if they were in power today.

It does make you wonder what other hail-mary stratagems the Liberals in their desperation will roll out in the coming months.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Sweet, free money! Thanks for finally doing something useful Justin.

The tax holiday should be extended to all food items and not just prepared food. I'm not necessarily sure that booze is the best choice but whatever.

Where do you want to cut public spending to make up for the tax shortfall? Or should we just grow the deficit more?

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Leave it to Maple MAGA to argue himself into a hot mess. Let me put it in crayon so you can understand:

The gap existed for a century. Chud puts a graph with the face of the guy he wants to #### as the break point. Doesn't realize the gap actually widens, as I furthered explained, that the 2014 oil crash just might have had something to do with it. In fact, it does.

But what can we expect from Maple MAGA seeing a graph with no context, and immediately blaming the PM? As per usual, a whole lot of vapid hot air.

Regardless of who posted what on whatever platform, the numbers are not good for Canada.

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/stud...oecd-2002-2060

This research bulletin examines historical and projected trends in the growth of Canada's GDP per capita, and compares these trends to those in peer countries in the OECD.
Canadians have been getting poorer relative to residents of other countries in the OECD. From 2002 to 2014, Canadian income growth as measured by GDP per capita roughly kept pace with the rest of the OECD. From 2014 to 2022, however, Canada's position declined sharply, ranking third-lowest among 30 countries for average growth over the period.
Between 2012 and 2022, Canada lost ground compared to key allies and trading partners such as the United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Australia, with Canadian GDP per capita declining from 80.4% of the US level in 2012 to 72.3% in 2022.Looking forward to 2060, Canada's projected average annual growth rate for GDP per capita (0.78%) is the lowest among 30 OECD countries.
Canada's GDP per capita (after adjusting by inflation), which exceeded the OECD average by US$3,141 in 2002 and was roughly equivalent to the OECD average in 2022, is projected to fall below the OECD average by US$8,617 in 2060.
The root cause of Canada's declining long-term growth in GDP per capita—recent and projected—is very low or negative growth in labour productivity reflecting weak investment in physical and human capital per worker.

Also in this CBC article.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/can...rich-1.7318989

"That gap between us and the United States is not just large today. It has been widening at a pace that we haven't seen in generations," said Trevor Tombe, a professor of economics at the University of Calgary.

Because Canada hasn't kept pace, emigration to the U.S. could start to accelerate, said Larry Schembri, a senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and a former deputy governor of the Bank of Canada.

"As that gap grows, more and more Canadians have an incentive to move to the U.S. for better economic opportunities and a higher standard of living," he said, adding doctors and tech workers may be among the first to go.

In 2002, Canadian GDP per capita was 8.6 per cent higher than the OECD average — a point of pride that meant Canada was outperforming other advanced economies.

But that changed in 2022 as Canada's GDP per capita slipped below the average, according to OECD data compiled by Schembri and the Fraser Institute.

At $46,035 US per capita, Canada ranked just below the OECD average of $46,266 US in 2022.

"I don't think we want to see a future for Canada where we lag behind all these other countries and we just get poorer and poorer over time," Beaudry said.

"We don't want to become another Argentina," he said, referring to a once-rich country that was mismanaged for decades and is now a middling economic force. "That's why we have to worry about this."

Canada has been trending downwards for a while, and are projecting to be dead last in GDP per capita amongst 30 OECD countries.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

Canada has been trending downwards for a while, and are projecting to be dead last in GDP per capita amongst 30 OECD countries.

Lots of independent bodies have been raising red flags over Canada’s weakening productivity for a long time now. We shouldn’t treat this like it’s just another partisan gotcha. All the fairness in how we distribute resources and wealth in this country isn’t going to mean much if the fundamentals of Canada’s economy continue their long-term decline.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/03/...ivity-problem/

[BowRiverBruinsRule]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

is no GST during the holidays on beer a good idea?

Yes. What a ridiculous question! Happier Holidays.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Leave it to Maple MAGA to argue himself into a hot mess. Let me put it in crayon so you can understand:

The gap existed for a century. Chud puts a graph with the face of the guy he wants to #### as the break point. Doesn't realize the gap actually widens, as I furthered explained, that the 2014 oil crash just might have had something to do with it. In fact, it does.

But what can we expect from Maple MAGA seeing a graph with no context, and immediately blaming the PM? As per usual, a whole lot of vapid hot air.

I don't think you have the understanding you think you do here.....

If the 2014 oil crash was the biggest impetus here, why has the gap not closed up in the last few years, especially in 2022 when oil reached >$100 US. In fact, in Canadian dollar terms, oil prices have been back to where they were pre-2014 crash since approximately 2021.

So again, why has that gap not started to shrink (it has actually continued to widen), if as you put it, the oil price crash in 2014 is a major cause of the gap widening?

[Ozy_Flame]

My goodness, you guys are like whack-a-mole.

Chud puts Trudeau's election as the reason for the gap widening, but the 2014 oil crash clearly kicked off that gap widening, among other economic factors at the time.

Has the gap widened? Sure. But that's not what's being argued. Chud graphs show Trudeau widening it. It's far, far more complicated than a simple election of a Canadian politican (a year after the gap started to widen), as any economist will attest.

It's purely myopic, specious thinking to say the election of Trudeau kicked off a widening. Far more nuance and complexity than simply gaslighting a Lib.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

My goodness, you guys are like whack-a-mole.

Chud puts Trudeau's election as the reason for the gap widening, but the 2014 oil crash clearly kicked off that gap widening, among other economic factors at the time.

Has the gap widened? Sure. But that's not what's being argued. Chud graphs show Trudeau widening it. It's far, far more complicated than a simple election of a Canadian politican (a year after the gap started to widen), as any economist will attest.

It's purely myopic, specious thinking to say the election of Trudeau kicked off a widening. Far more nuance and complexity than simply gaslighting a Lib.

Of course - But he's also been the leader for a decade. What % of responsibility does the leader has for a countries "performance" over a 10 year span. The headwinds and tailwinds before and after his first election have surely lapsed as an excuse (For both the good and the bad)

This isn't reactionary. He has shown for a decade where he wants to /has taken this country.

And economically comparatively to the US (ands other countries) it has not been a positive result.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Where do you want to cut public spending to make up for the tax shortfall? Or should we just grow the deficit more?

They are going to blow the money anyways - so i would rather it stay in my (and others) hands to have it disappear into the void of government spending

Blatant vote buying but at least this is money that goes back into the economy. (Let's ignore inflation though)

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

My goodness, you guys are like whack-a-mole.

Chud puts Trudeau's election as the reason for the gap widening, but the 2014 oil crash clearly kicked off that gap widening, among other economic factors at the time.

Has the gap widened? Sure. But that's not what's being argued. Chud graphs show Trudeau widening it. It's far, far more complicated than a simple election of a Canadian politican (a year after the gap started to widen), as any economist will attest.

It's purely myopic, specious thinking to say the election of Trudeau kicked off a widening. Far more nuance and complexity than simply gaslighting a Lib.

Maybe it feels like whack-a-mole because you're having such a difficult time coming up with any explanation for why you think Trudeau bears zero responsibility for the state of Canada's economy.

I think the reason he has trouble taking any accountability for his leadership over the last decade is because he has people like you to carry water for him absolving him of any blame for why Canada has become so utterly uninvestable.