Other nations must be wondering how they so badly overestimated Russias military might.
Maybe, but I also think the opposite question needs to be asked, how badly did the Russian Military Leadership under estimate the Ukrainian Military. Also how much of this is an indictment of Russian Intelligence Services failures.
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Not that we want to try to find out, but is it a given that the Russians still have the ability to blow up the world? How much maintenance has been done on their nuclear arsenal over the decades and are their modern missiles really capable of crossing the world successfully and able to evade modern countermeasures?
Anyone have any insight as to why the Russian Air Force is not more involved?
The ground attack aircraft are involved but aren't as useful while they do not have air superiority and AA sites are still active. By most accounts, are good portion of Ukraine's S-300 AA systems and aircraft survived Russia's initial cruise missile strikes mostly because of bad intel on the Russian's part. In many cases the cruise missiles Russia launched didn't hit active in service aircraft, and the AA systems weren't where the Russians thought they would be. Couple that with Western provided shoulder launched AA missiles, and ground attack aircraft are getting shot down or spending time evading/dropping flares than helping the ground troops.
Maybe, but I also think the opposite question needs to be asked, how badly did the Russian Military Leadership under estimate the Ukrainian Military. Also how much of this is an indictment of Russian Intelligence Services failures.
I'm seriously surprised how badly they missed the mark with the cruise missile strikes. Given how limited Ukraine's air force is and how many cruise missiles Russia has, you'd think they'd be able to hit all the aircraft fairly easily and not mostly hit spares/not in service craft.
Russia's military planning and combined arms coordination seems awful as well. Their combat units ran well ahead of their supply units while leaving them mostly unprotected. With lines that extended, Ukrainians seem to be having a field day blowing supply trucks up that Russian's already don't have enough of. Most combat units only carry enough few/supplies for three days, and we're running up on that now.
Russian military intelligence may not have factored in Ukraine's Western intelligence support. If all the EU/US leaders were squawking about having the detail invasion plans a month prior, you bet Zelenskiy and the Ukrainian military had them at around that time too.
Not that we want to try to find out, but is it a given that the Russians still have the ability to blow up the world? How much maintenance has been done on their nuclear arsenal over the decades and are their modern missiles really capable of crossing the world successfully and able to evade modern countermeasures?
The Russian's are reportedly sitting on 4500 weapons of various size with about a 3rd of those strategic and not tactical weapons of various size with about 900 on ballistic missiles.
The Russians have spent a ton of money over the last few years on a modernization of their Nuclear Arsenal,
They've also been working on super heavy ICBM's like the Sarmat, supposedly they've gone into production.
The Russians have also deployed the RSM-56 Sub launched missile on their modern Borei Ballistic Missile Submarines which I think there are 5 on active duty with each carrying 16 missiles with 6 warheads each.
The Soviets first and the Russians have always been very aware of the use of deterrence weapons in the defense of their country, so expect that their modernization has been effective.
Also there's no ABM that's going to stop a launch of several hundred missiles. The question if that happens is not if the weapons hit, because a large number of them will its how much over kill will happen.
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My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
I'm seriously surprised how badly they missed the mark with the cruise missile strikes. Given how limited Ukraine's air force is and how many cruise missiles Russia has, you'd think they'd be able to hit all the aircraft fairly easily and not mostly hit spares/not in service craft.
Russia's military planning and combined arms coordination seems awful as well. Their combat units ran well ahead of their supply units while leaving them mostly unprotected. With lines that extended, Ukrainians seem to be having a field day blowing supply trucks up that Russian's already don't have enough of. Most combat units only carry enough few/supplies for three days, and we're running up on that now.
Russian military intelligence may not have factored in Ukraine's Western intelligence support. If all the EU/US leaders were squawking about having the detail invasion plans a month prior, you bet Zelenskiy and the Ukrainian military had them at around that time too.
The one problem with a blitzkrieg like attack is that logistics units are slower. Saddam used this in Kuwait, and his attack lost its initiative because the attack had to slow down to be refueled and re-armed.
With the Russian's I agree with you their attack was designed around speed and a punch that was designed to be a knock out blow on multiple fronts. Because of that they left their logistical train behind and the Ukrainians have exploited that smartly.
Right now I'd say that the Russian's have completely lost the initiative, and once that's lost its really hard to get it back. It gets even worse if the Russian's are having logistics problems. An armored column that's low on fuel can't maneuver in battle and loses all of its advantages.
The only way that the Russian's can regain the iniative is to either release their masses of reserves. Of to open another axis of attack and force the Ukrainians to shift their forces.
But I have to wonder about the Russian's satellite capabilities as they're having trouble hitting targets, which might mean a problem with their GPS systems. But also that their photo recon satellites aren't that good.
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But I have to wonder about the Russian's satellite capabilities as they're having trouble hitting targets, which might mean a problem with their GPS systems. But also that their photo recon satellites aren't that good.
They’re almost certainly under attack. Likely by several Western governments at once.
Cyberwarfare is a direct way for them to repond militarily without being in theatre.
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How much will the sanctions affect the lower and middle classes if they end up having to be in place due to prolonged conflict? Like, it seems the nation is well aware Putin and his cronies are at fault but is there a tipping point where they end up suffering further, blame the West and end up galvanizing behind Putin (or whomever takes over), or even radicalizing against western nations?
Maybe, but I also think the opposite question needs to be asked, how badly did the Russian Military Leadership under estimate the Ukrainian Military. Also how much of this is an indictment of Russian Intelligence Services failures.
The problem for Russia/Putin at this point is even if they end up beating Ukraine in the end they have been exposed utterly as a paper tiger, I doubt they would dare move on any country that the west explicitly backed, in fact if I was Biden I would be making very aggressive threatening moves into Poland, the Russians have to be reeling right now, just the threat of real air support is the end of it for them.
It would play well with the domestic politics of the US as well
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How much will the sanctions affect the lower and middle classes if they end up having to be in place due to prolonged conflict? Like, it seems the nation is well aware Putin and his cronies are at fault but is there a tipping point where they end up suffering further, blame the West and end up galvanizing behind Putin (or whomever takes over), or even radicalizing against western nations?
Sanctions have tragic consequences, and cause many innocent people to suffer, and in many cases, even lose their lives. That is true.
However, the western response to this situation absolutely cannot be to simply allow Putin and Russia's military to get away with this scot free; doing so would likely result in much greater human suffering and death in the long run.
There is no easy answer here. We live in a world of nukes, unfortunately.
As for the Russian population being radicalized against the west, I generally think this has already happened to a large extent and can't be avoided, regardless of what the west actually does. The Kremlin propaganda machine is relentless.
Last edited by Mathgod; 02-26-2022 at 10:55 PM.
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How much will the sanctions affect the lower and middle classes if they end up having to be in place due to prolonged conflict? Like, it seems the nation is well aware Putin and his cronies are at fault but is there a tipping point where they end up suffering further, blame the West and end up galvanizing behind Putin (or whomever takes over), or even radicalizing against western nations?
Hopefully they realize that the negative impacts to their daily lives are the fault of their own government and they rise up.
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Sanctions have tragic consequences, and cause many innocent people to suffer, and in many cases, even lose their lives. That is true.
However, the western response to this situation absolutely cannot be to simply allow Putin and Russia's military to get away with this scot free; doing so would likely result in much greater human suffering and death in the long run.
There is no easy answer here. We live in a world of nukes, unfortunately.
As for the Russian population being radicalized against the west, I generally think this has already happened to a large extent and can't be avoided, regardless of what the west actually does. The Kremlin propaganda machine is relentless.
Russians are a hell of a lot less affected by propaganda than Americans, they have spent a century being lied to, they know its all bull####, they don't hate the west, unlike ISIS they want to be the west.
The break up of the CCCP was humiliating, Putin promising that Russia would be a respected great power again was obviously going to be popular but never mistake Russian approval for the objective with belief in the story
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How much will the sanctions affect the lower and middle classes if they end up having to be in place due to prolonged conflict? Like, it seems the nation is well aware Putin and his cronies are at fault but is there a tipping point where they end up suffering further, blame the West and end up galvanizing behind Putin (or whomever takes over), or even radicalizing against western nations?
In this age of worldwide information I can't see anyone including the Russian population will bother to try and blame the west, what we're witnessing is likely the end of Putin and the start of a more friendly Russia.
Russia has already lost. The conventional warfare isn't going according to plan for them.
If the Russians are victorious in the conventional phase of the conflict, that's just the beginning. Then the asymmetric warfare takes over.
Ukrainians will be like white Taliban. Ukraine will be a meat grinder for the Russian Army just like the Mujahideen were a meat grinder for the Soviets in Afghanistan.
The US and UK and Germany will have crates of Javelin and Stinger missiles "fall off" the backs of trucks at the Ukraine-Polish border. Thousands and thousands of anti-tank missiles will filter through the country and will be destroying Russian armor and supply chains for the entire duration of any occupation.
Russia has already lost. The conventional warfare isn't going according to plan for them.
If the Russians are victorious in the conventional phase of the conflict, that's just the beginning. Then the asymmetric warfare takes over.
Ukrainians will be like white Taliban. Ukraine will be a meat grinder for the Russian Army just like the Mujahideen were a meat grinder for the Soviets in Afghanistan.
The US and UK and Germany will have crates of Javelin and Stinger missiles "fall off" the backs of trucks at the Ukraine-Polish border. Thousands and thousands of anti-tank missiles will filter through the country and will be destroying Russian armor and supply chains for the entire duration of any occupation.
Even if Russia wins, they lose.
True. But everyone loses in war.
Millions will suffer because of one man’s actions.
Hopefully a group of his oligarchs realize they need to end this madness and get their security people to take him out.
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I'm just a wreck from all this. My great-granddad emigrated from Ukraine in the late 1800s, so my connection to the country is pretty tenuous but all the news still saddens me.
Here's a Seinfeld clip. A bit of levity I suppose.
Yeah, Ukraine is not a game, f### you Putin
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