American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by direwolf

America is on a quick descent into total chaos. Never thought I'd ever get to witness the fall of an empire, but it's happening right in front of our eyes. What a time to be alive. This is shaping up to be the most important election in U.S. history, and it's basically a coin flip at this point between fascism and common sense/decency. It's frightening.

It's not a coin flip. It's more like 80/20 in favor of Trump at this point. Biden isn't going to win unless there's a big swing in support between now and November.

And don't give me the whole "polls are unreliable" bullcrap. Polls have been for the most part very reliable with the exception of 2016 and 2020 where they usually UNDERestimated Trump's support.

Biden's approval rating has been in steady decline for almost 2 years now. Are you telling me that all those polls saying the same thing are ALL wrong?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/

And if you think Trump's return to the WH will just be a disaster for the US, you're very much mistaken. The consequences for Canada will be WAY more disastrous than most people realize.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

It's not a coin flip. It's more like 80/20 in favor of Trump at this point. Biden isn't going to win unless there's a big swing in support between now and November.

And don't give me the whole "polls are unreliable" bullcrap. Polls have been for the most part very reliable with the exception of 2016 and 2020 where they usually UNDERestimated Trump's support.

Biden's approval rating has been in steady decline for almost 2 years now. Are you telling me that all those polls saying the same thing are ALL wrong?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/

And if you think Trump's return to the WH will just be a disaster for the US, you're very much mistaken. The consequences for Canada will be WAY more disastrous than most people realize.

There is so much wrong here I don't know where to start. The polls in the past have been absolutely unreliable, how you can claim otherwise is absurd. You know what has been reliable though? Allan Lichtman's keys to the white house predictions and he had Biden winning the election. The reality is Donald Trump has little to no chance to win in 2024 and if polls were actually not fudged and reliable you would see this.

[Mathgod]

If the polls have been so "fudged" and "unreliable", maybe you can show me the evidence that they have been?

Allan Lichtman's keys leave out important factors such as online propaganda coming from countries such as Russia and China, and the rising threat of AI that can create fake but very convincing images and videos. It also doesn't take into account that the challenger is himself a former president, and the incumbent is in his 80s and sometimes has difficulties speaking clearly, and that Trump's following is extremely cult-like. Furthermore, it doesn't take other problems into account such as inflation and the Gaza situation. It measures "strong economy" as a simple yes or no, looking at unemployment rates and the stock market, but doesn't take inflation into account.

Here's a column that was written in 2023 that I'd recommend everyone read. It rings just as true today as it did when it was written, maybe even more so.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...-robert-kagan/

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

It's not a coin flip. It's more like 80/20 in favor of Trump at this point. Biden isn't going to win unless there's a big swing in support between now and November.

And don't give me the whole "polls are unreliable" bullcrap. Polls have been for the most part very reliable with the exception of 2016 and 2020 where they usually UNDERestimated Trump's support.

Biden's approval rating has been in steady decline for almost 2 years now. Are you telling me that all those polls saying the same thing are ALL wrong?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/

And if you think Trump's return to the WH will just be a disaster for the US, you're very much mistaken. The consequences for Canada will be WAY more disastrous than most people realize.

The horse race is currently Trump +1.5. That isn’t 80/20 territory.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by GGG

The horse race is currently Trump +1.5. That isn’t 80/20 territory.

It very much is. Trump benefits greatly from the electoral college, so Biden has to win the popular vote by a BIG margin like he did in 2020, to have a realistic chance of winning the election.

Right now Biden has (if you're being charitable) a 50/50 shot at winning any one of the three rust belt states. He NEEDS to win all three. So he's actually looking at a 1 in 8 chance of winning the election.

Again, there's still time for things to change, but this line has been repeated many times over the past year and nothing has really changed.

[direwolf]

As someone who isn’t an expert in polling, do any of these polls factor in the overturning of Roe v. Wade and the current assault on women’s rights? Because from what I’ve read, there have been a few smaller state-wide elections recently where these issues have been on the ballot and Republicans have done quite poorly as a result. And the Dems are making this a huge issue going into November.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

It very much is. Trump benefits greatly from the electoral college, so Biden has to win the popular vote by a BIG margin like he did in 2020, to have a realistic chance of winning the election.

Right now Biden has (if you're being charitable) a 50/50 shot at winning any one of the three rust belt states. He NEEDS to win all three. So he's actually looking at a 1 in 8 chance of winning the election.

Again, there's still time for things to change, but this line has been repeated many times over the past year and nothing has really changed.

You are making the same mistake that the Princeton poll made in the 2016 elections.

State results in polling error are highly correlated as is the popular vote distribution. . So it isn’t a 1/8 chance of winning the rust belt states. It’s a polling error within the margin of statistical error (ignoring sampling bias errors) of the current polls. Essentially if he wins one rust belt state he likely wins more than one. It’s actually difficult to just win one.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by direwolf

As someone who isn’t an expert in polling, do any of these polls factor in the overturning of Roe v. Wade and the current assault on women’s rights? Because from what I’ve read, there have been a few smaller state-wide elections recently where these issues have been on the ballot and Republicans have done quite poorly as a result. And the Dems are making this a huge issue going into November.

Not really, they only reflect what people tell them to the questions asked.

So essentially Roe V wade either isn’t significant in the Biden/Trump question or people don’t associate the two issues.

I agree it is an opportunity for the Democrats if they can associate Trump with the generic anti-abortion republican.

[Biff]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

It's not a coin flip. It's more like 80/20 in favor of Trump at this point. Biden isn't going to win unless there's a big swing in support between now and November.

And don't give me the whole "polls are unreliable" bullcrap. Polls have been for the most part very reliable with the exception of 2016 and 2020 where they usually UNDERestimated Trump's support.

Biden's approval rating has been in steady decline for almost 2 years now. Are you telling me that all those polls saying the same thing are ALL wrong?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/

And if you think Trump's return to the WH will just be a disaster for the US, you're very much mistaken. The consequences for Canada will be WAY more disastrous than most people realize.

I am sad for you that you can't accurately evaluate data. Amongst eligible voters who intend to vote, Biden is winning most swing states handily and Trump has less support nationally, and in swing states, then he had in 2020. Trump, his supporters, and his sycophants all overestimate his appeal and think that the few and loud outnumber everyone else. Carry on with the flailing demagoguery. It ain't working outside of the base....and the base ain't enough.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Biff

I am sad for you that you can't accurately evaluate data. Amongst eligible voters who intend to vote, Biden is winning most swing states handily and Trump has less support nationally, and in swing states, then he had in 2020. Trump, his supporters, and his sycophants all overestimate his appeal and think that the few and loud outnumber everyone else. Carry on with the flailing demagoguery. It ain't working outside of the base....and the base ain't enough.

Where is the evidence of Biden "winning handily" among eligible voters who intend to vote? Would be nice if you presented evidence instead of resorting to personal barbs.

Trump's support is down compared to 2020, but Biden's is WAY down from what it was. He barely won in 2020 by the skin of his teeth, when his approval rating was in the 50s. It's now in the 30s.

Then you look at RFK's donors, they are largely the same people who support Trump. It's not hard to see the RFK's candidacy is nothing more than an attempt to sabotage Biden's re-election bid. And it appears to be working. When you compare 2-way polls to 5-way polls, Trumps lead (in most cases) grows when you factor in all candidates. To make matters worse, it's entirely plausible that RFK drops out in October and endorses Trump.

Look, I'm as big an advocate for Biden as you're going to find, but burying our heads in copium and denial isn't going to make the situation better. I'm not asking for alarmism or doomerism - I'm simply asking for sobriety and realism.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by GGG

You are making the same mistake that the Princeton poll made in the 2016 elections.

State results in polling error are highly correlated as is the popular vote distribution. . So it isn’t a 1/8 chance of winning the rust belt states. It’s a polling error within the margin of statistical error (ignoring sampling bias errors) of the current polls. Essentially if he wins one rust belt state he likely wins more than one. It’s actually difficult to just win one.

The only error these polls made both in 2016 and 2020 was underestimate Trump's support. There are pockets of Trump supporters who never participate in polls, and are therefore never represented in the polling data.

There are differences between the rust belt states, for example a large Arab American population in Michigan, which is upset with Biden over the Gaza situation. Biden is also rapidly losing support in Pennsylvania among Black and Latino voters, as well as young voters.

So no I don't think all three states are joined at the hip. They are three separate contests.

[#-3]

I don't actually think polling will be the most important factor to watch in this election, and that doesn't mean the poling will be wrong. The poling will likely be 49-51 either way right to the end. But this will be a turn out election plain and simple. Democrats are struggling with a loose collision that is unhappy, but does starting to see Trump again scare them enough to head to the poles in the large numbers seen 4 years ago. And there are a lot of signs that Trump support has bifurcated into even more extreme and more tepid, Will the tepid sit out and let Trump lose to just put an end to this?

That is the real election question, and at the moment I think it probably sits 60-40 in favor of Trump because the "good" republicans have shown they could plug there nose and stick their heads up Trumps ass in the past, so I expect them to do it again.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

The only error these polls made both in 2016 and 2020 was underestimate Trump's support. There are pockets of Trump supporters who never participate in polls, and are therefore never represented in the polling data.

There are differences between the rust belt states, for example a large Arab American population in Michigan, which is upset with Biden over the Gaza situation. Biden is also rapidly losing support in Pennsylvania among Black and Latino voters, as well as young voters.

So no I don't think all three states are joined at the hip. They are three separate contests.

Sorry I used the wrong word. I meant the Princeton Model. The Princeton model if you remember was forecasting a 98% probability of Hillary victory. This was because it assumed that a polling error in a state was an independent event and not a correlated event.

You made that error in your one in 8 comment. That isn’t the way swing state works. If you are down 3 points in Ohio and 2 points in Pensylvania and 1 point in Nevada and you win Ohio you likely win all 3. Essentially the odds end up being the odds of the largest polling error occurring and not the odds of 3 independent polling errors occurring.

I do agree that the under-sampling of Trump in the last two elections is a concern. I just think your 80/20 odds statement is not well founded with current data and the potential error in the current data.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by GGG

Sorry I used the wrong word. I meant the Princeton Model. The Princeton model if you remember was forecasting a 98% probability of Hillary victory. This was because it assumed that a polling error in a state was an independent event and not a correlated event.

You made that error in your one in 8 comment. That isn’t the way swing state works. If you are down 3 points in Ohio and 2 points in Pensylvania and 1 point in Nevada and you win Ohio you likely win all 3. Essentially the odds end up being the odds of the largest polling error occurring and not the odds of 3 independent polling errors occurring.

I do agree that the under-sampling of Trump in the last two elections is a concern. I just think your 80/20 odds statement is not well founded with current data and the potential error in the current data.

1 in 8 may be wrong, but he's a very significant underdog without a doubt.

He's down by 2.5 points in Pennsylvania, and when under sampling is taken into account, he's probably actually down by 4 or 5. So going by your assumption that by winning Penn he automatically wins all 3 (presumptuous, but I'm willing to grant you it), he's still in quite a bit of trouble.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

1 in 8 may be wrong, but he's a very significant underdog without a doubt.

He's down by 2.5 points in Pennsylvania, and when under sampling is taken into account, he's probably actually down by 4 or 5. So going by your assumption that by winning Penn he automatically wins all 3 (presumptuous, but I'm willing to grant you it), he's still in quite a bit of trouble.

You can’t just assume undersampling and add it in like it’s a fact. The 2022 races in Pennsylvania it didn’t show up and underestimated democratic senate support significantly. We also don’t have detailed info on how the likely voter models for these polls has changed or remained the same since the 2020 and 2022 elections

The answer of we don’t know yet it’s close is about all you can reasonably say right now with a slight edge to Trump.

[Mathgod]

Midterm results aren't relevant to this IMO because you consistently see Trump getting more support than the polls show, where the same thing doesn't happen with other Republicans. It seems to be specifically Trump and his type of demagoguing that brings certain people out to vote for him who wouldn't bother to vote for anyone else.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

I always keep coming back to the story of the town in New Hampshire that went libertarian, and ended up being overrun by bears.

Yes you heard that right.

I mean it sounds like a total success to me.

[Cappy]

I was listening to a Planet Money Podcast this morning.

50% of Americans think that the US is at historic highs in unemployment.

In actuality, it's historic lows.

We are in a post-truth world now

[marsplasticeraser]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

It's not a coin flip. It's more like 80/20 in favor of Trump at this point. Biden isn't going to win unless there's a big swing in support between now and November.

And don't give me the whole "polls are unreliable" bullcrap. Polls have been for the most part very reliable with the exception of 2016 and 2020 where they usually UNDERestimated Trump's support.

Biden's approval rating has been in steady decline for almost 2 years now. Are you telling me that all those polls saying the same thing are ALL wrong?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/

And if you think Trump's return to the WH will just be a disaster for the US, you're very much mistaken. The consequences for Canada will be WAY more disastrous than most people realize.

Polls are unreliable 6 months out. Neither campaign has started any of their detailed campaigns, and polls will change, and change unpredictably.

The polls now are simply content for media, podcasters, and content creators.

Polls become very reliable a week or two out. But this is the case of where the analysis is in the hands of intelligent people who are looking on a district by district level.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Midterm results aren't relevant to this IMO because you consistently see Trump getting more support than the polls show, where the same thing doesn't happen with other Republicans. It seems to be specifically Trump and his type of demagoguing that brings certain people out to vote for him who wouldn't bother to vote for anyone else.

You have a sample size of 2. That is not significant enough to distinguish a real effect from random chance.