I wonder if these attacks actually start from Ukrainian soil.
After all, Russia is huge and fairly easily infiltrated by Ukrainians who very often speak fluent Russian,and drones don't necessarily need specialized launching platforms.
this reminded me of chevy chase and dan aykroyd in "spies like us"
__________________ "...and there goes Finger up the middle on Luongo!" - Jim Hughson, Av's vs. 'Nucks
I guess it depends on how big a drone is needed to blow up a depot like this. Ukraine's been known to modify Cessna sized planes packed with explosives into drones, could have been one of those and they'd have the range to get there. A smaller drone could definitely be smuggled into Russia pretty easily, but Russia's air defense has been pretty decimated by this point.
They apparently sent about 100 drones at the site.
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So I'm far from a military strategist or logician, but wouldn't one of your top priorities in designing a munitions depot be making sure that there's enough distance and/or insulation between stockpiles to prevent a cascade explosion?
So I'm far from a military strategist or logician, but wouldn't one of your top priorities in designing a munitions depot be making sure that there's enough distance and/or insulation between stockpiles to prevent a cascade explosion?
If they hit the place with a 100 drones it may not matter.
I wonder if they had any nukes there not in hardened bunkers.
Wow, it does not seem rosey in Russia. School children being used to fix rail lines and produce food, no more court dates for those arrested, just straight to the front line. Just shocking.
Wow, it does not seem rosey in Russia. School children being used to fix rail lines and produce food, no more court dates for those arrested, just straight to the front line. Just shocking.
This is Putin controlling political instability. Anyone who protests goes. A good chunk of those Navalny supporters and dissidents have probably been blown up by Ukrainians. Doesn't bode well for future stability or alternative in Russia.
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Perun has a pair of very informative videos about the economical side of the war:
Short version: while military aid to Ukraine has been at times very frustratingly sporadic, the much less talked about but just as important economic support has been fairly robust, giving Ukraine in a pretty decent situation, considering the circumstances. Solid economic leadership has greatly benefitted them too. Most remarkably, Ukraine has been succesful at significantly reforming their economy and government, despite the war. They are however very dependent on that international support.
And a look at the other side
While there's much less information available on Russia, unfortunately the situation in Russia is probably not nearly as bad as we would hope, and on the surface a lot of markers look like a boom economy. (Thia actually isn't massively surprising for a war economy, low unemployment and rising salaries are quite normal in war.)
On the upside though, Russias situation IS much more precarious. While their economists have clearly also done an excellent job fending off disaster, there are a lot of stopgap measures that are holding back collapses of one sort or another. Without detailed information it's essentially impossible to say how close their economy is to a war ending crisis, but the fact that over time Russia has declared more and more economic data as secret, there are reasons for optimism. After all, if everything was fine, Russia would want to show the data to prove it.
It doesn't look like it's going to collapse right now though, and one shouldn't take Russia's eventual economic collapse as a given. For all we know, it could hold for a decade, or come down crumbling next winter.
Last edited by Itse; 09-23-2024 at 02:45 AM.
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...reading the above again, I feel a need to further clarify:
Economically, Ukraine is clearly doing better than Russia, and we know this for sure, even if we take every number Russia is giving out about it's own economy as truth. (Which we shouldn't.) The fact that companies like Rheinmetall see an economic opportunity in building production directly in Ukraine actually says a lot of good things about Ukraine's situation.
We also know that Russia is not okay. We don't know how bad it is because they're keeping so much hidden, and it doesn't look like a system about to collapse just yet, but really no one knows how long they can hold on.
Ukraine's primary worry is threats posed by Russian air strikes, resulting from insufficient air defense, but overall they've been actually transitioning to a more modern, less corrupt western style economy, which really is a remarkable achievement of leadership from Zelenskiy when you think about it.
Last edited by Itse; 09-23-2024 at 05:53 AM.
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I wonder if Russia's production being destructible while Ukraine's NATO support is untouchable will be the deciding factor in this conflict.
I think you're right, but one could also flip that same concept and say that Putin's unbreakable self preserving determination vs the West's declining interest could also be the factor in deciding this conflict. The West will decide when and how this ends. Supply Ukraine like it's fighting for your security and they win. Supply Ukraine like you hope they hold out and they may not
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Knowing how Poles are, that guy was way too polite (obviously in a diplomatic forum). That russian ambassador to the UN Vasily Nebenzya is a top 5 russian guy I want to see swinging from the gallows. Can't believe someone hasn't choked him out yet.
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Perun with an analysis on what we know of the recent ammo storage explosions. There's praise for how far Ukraine has come in it's drone capability during the war (and it is kind of crazy to think that these attacks were saturation attacks made with weapons that didn’t exist at thw start of the war, which was a little over 2 years ago). Also quite a lot about Russian corruption and incompetence.
What I didn't expect was Perun using the ammo storage attacks to come down pretty hard on western limitations on weapons provided and limitations to their use. In essence, to him the recent ammo storage attacks is stuff that Ukraine should have been doing on 2022 or 2023 but couldn't because the West wouldn't let them. Ukraine has repeatedly shown a capability of doing disproportionate damage to Russia and an ability to hit them in their weak spots, but the West has been trying to force Ukraine to fight the war in a way that's best suited for Russia.
I would personally add that this is likely not a coincidence. This war has demonstrated just how good Russia is at influencing western decision making, while in contrast the western leader are constantly struggling to even get their own companies to hold up their end of the sanctions
The West doesn't even have a plan about what they're trying to achieve and how. It's not just that Russia has influence, they're much better at turning the influence they have into concrete advantages.
Putin is scum and a bit insane in some ways, but there is currently no one in the western leadership that can match his skill level. He just gets the dynamics of power so well, both at home and abroad. Benefits of being in power for so long possibly.
It's a good thing Ukraine also has extremely capable leadership, and that war is ultimately not just a leadership skill check.
Last edited by Itse; 09-30-2024 at 12:20 AM.
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