Russia invades Ukraine

[karl262]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I think the fear that Putin, if backed into a corner might do something monumentally stupid, like a tactical nuke on Kiev, is a real fear for NATO



You have to assume if Russia loses Putin ends up strung up like Mussolini, strong men don't survive losing a war often, and that's the fear, Putin faced with death is quite capable of doing something that 'Russia' as a country wouldn't, I suspect NATO/the west is hoping that a long losing war will give Putin time to find a way out which a sudden collapse doesnt

This has been my concern from the very start, that we'd see an "escalate to de escalate" scenario unfold involving nuclear weapons. There could be a nuclear test beforehand to see if that alone works but I don't think it would.

Warheads require serious maintenance, something Russia doesn't seem to do well, so hopefully if they go that route it ends up being a dud.

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[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by karl262

Warheads require serious maintenance, something Russia doesn't seem to do well, so hopefully if they go that route it ends up being a dud.

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Agreed, it is very possible that the Russians nuclear capabilities are great eroded through stupidity, laziness and corruption

[karl262]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Agreed, it is very possible that the Russians nuclear capabilities are great eroded through stupidity, laziness and corruption

And Russia can't risk having the reliability of their nuclear deterrent being doubted.

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[FlamesAddiction]

I doubt Russia would go straight to lobbing nukes tactical or otherwise. The next step of the ladder would probably be to do an open nuclear test over some remote area of their own territory to show that their systems are ready to go.

[Itse]

Russia pretty much stopped threatening to use nukes after China told them to quit it. That was I think in the first year of the war.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I doubt Russia would go straight to lobbing nukes tactical or otherwise. The next step of the ladder would probably be to do an open nuclear test over some remote area of their own territory to show that their systems are ready to go.

The instance one goes off, even in their own territory, it'll be a huge loss of support from whatever allies they have left.

[Muta]

IMO Russia wouldn't use nukes, even amongst veiled threats. Using nukes in Ukraine would render that land completely unusable for generations (and Putin sees it as his land to begin with), and the fallout from the bombs would spread across Russia and cause widespread destruction on their own country.

Furthermore, the minute he launches any nukes, he's getting it back even worse in reply from NATO and the west, and such a response would immediately end him, his regime, and his oligarchs. His political relations would sever everywhere, likely even with his own allies in China and North Korea, as they wouldn't want to be drawn into a nuclear war that isn't theirs.

[undercoverbrother]

#### Ivan

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Muta

IMO Russia wouldn't use nukes, even amongst veiled threats. Using nukes in Ukraine would render that land completely unusable for generations (and Putin sees it as his land to begin with), and the fallout from the bombs would spread across Russia and cause widespread destruction on their own country.

Furthermore, the minute he launches any nukes, he's getting it back even worse in reply from NATO and the west, and such a response would immediately end him, his regime, and his oligarchs. His political relations would sever everywhere, likely even with his own allies in China and North Korea, as they wouldn't want to be drawn into a nuclear war that isn't theirs.

NATO has said any use of a nuclear or nuclear reactor detonation of any kind in Ukraine would result in the destruction of all Russian conventional military assets in that country by NATO forces. I am not sure that's going far enough.

[karl262]

Originally Posted by Muta

IMO Russia wouldn't use nukes, even amongst veiled threats. Using nukes in Ukraine would render that land completely unusable for generations (and Putin sees it as his land to begin with), and the fallout from the bombs would spread across Russia and cause widespread destruction on their own country.

Furthermore, the minute he launches any nukes, he's getting it back even worse in reply from NATO and the west, and such a response would immediately end him, his regime, and his oligarchs. His political relations would sever everywhere, likely even with his own allies in China and North Korea, as they wouldn't want to be drawn into a nuclear war that isn't theirs.

There are options that produce little to no fallout, such as an emp attack or airburst.

This would really only happen if losing the war is imminent and we see a general collapse of Russian conventional forces. Putin is 99% dead if the war is lost. Limited nuclear attack on Ukraine and he's maybe 96% dead, because who knows...maybe nukes used in combat terrifies the world enough to force negotiations.

I'm sure Putin would fully take advantage of the extra 3% survival probability, even if it means he destroys Russia as a nation if it doesn't work.

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[Monahammer]

I still think that China's big play here is eventually taking Siberia.

Russia using nukes in any capacity will give basically everyone on earth a defacto cassus belli against them. I could see China invading Siberia using that as reasoning, especially if Nato is simultaneously invading the part of Russia Putin cares more about.

[Fuzzy14]

https://thedailyguardian.com/putin-u...g-work-breaks/

Russians starting to get concerned about the low birthrate to the point they're asking people to procreate during work breaks? One MP Zhanna Ryabtseva saying start having children at 18.

Less than 100,000 births in Russia in June.

Some would argue that this war will only expedite what is already the slow death of the Russian ethnicity. Birthrate in the toilet, net negative immigration, holes being blown out of the procreating-aged men, economy in the dumps. Does the state of Russia as we know it still exist in 30 years?

[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by Fuzzy14

Some would argue that this war will only expedite what is already the slow death of the Russian ethnicity. Birthrate in the toilet, net negative immigration, holes being blown out of the procreating-aged men, economy in the dumps. Does the state of Russia as we know it still exist in 30 years?

Highly unlikely that Russia remains the same over the next 30 years. Hell Russia as a country is barely over 30 years old, to expect the status quo would go against history.

[FlamesAddiction]

I don't know how many people follow Peter Zeihan, but he has a lot to say about Russia and the demographic situation. He wrote a book in 2014 where he predicted the full invasion of Ukraine would have to happen within 8 years due to demographic pressures.

He also discussed in video about Russia becoming less ethnically Russian particularly in the far east, and one of the purposes for taking Ukraine was to add 40 million people to the body politic that he considered close to Russians that could be distributed around Russia where they needed to boost the Slavic presence. The technique was used in Soviet times which is why there are pockets of people with Ukrainian heritage in Siberia.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I don't know how many people follow Peter Zeihan, but he has a lot to say about Russia and the demographic situation. He wrote a book in 2014 where he predicted the full invasion of Ukraine would have to happen within 8 years due to demographic pressures.

He also discussed in video about Russia becoming less ethnically Russian particularly in the far east, and one of the purposes for taking Ukraine was to add 40 million people to the body politic that he considered close to Russians that could be distributed around Russia where they needed to boost the Slavic presence. The technique was used in Soviet times which is why there are pockets of people with Ukrainian heritage in Siberia.

Thanks for the reminder, I bought his book Absent Superpower(it was highly recommended) but in a move I misplaced it, guess I'll be going thru my boxes and storage containers this weekend.

[FlameOn]

Huge munitions depot explosion in Russia apparently from a drone attack. Ukraine is pushing hard with long range strikes to show what they can do if they get the go ahead to hit Russia with longer range western weapons. Tver is about 1200KM away from Ukraine, and almost 200KM NW of Moscow. That's some range for a drone attack and shows that Ukraine's own drones can already hit well into Russia.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1836220656142192873

[calumniate]

Looks like Ukraine got a pretty big ammo dump in Toropets which is west of Moscow:
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...-of-the-earth/

oops, beaten to it!

[Itse]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Huge munitions depot explosion in Russia apparently from a drone attack. Ukraine is pushing hard with long range strikes to show what they can do if they get the go ahead to hit Russia with longer range western weapons. Tver is about 1200KM away from Ukraine, and almost 200KM NW of Moscow. That's some range for a drone attack and shows that Ukraine's own drones can already hit well into Russia.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1836220656142192873

I wonder if these attacks actually start from Ukrainian soil.

After all, Russia is huge and fairly easily infiltrated by Ukrainians who very often speak fluent Russian, and drones don't necessarily need specialized launching platforms.

[Coach]

Man that explosion is freaking massive. Looks like the last scene of Oppenheimer.

The thing too about the nuclear threat. Of course it's a devastating possibly world-ending weapon, but it doesn't need to be used to blow up a city. All these wars happening and the big guns haven't even been put on the table in terms of NATO vs Russia missile capability. If Putin wants to hit an American city with a few ICBMs, he probably can.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Itse

I wonder if these attacks actually start from Ukrainian soil.

After all, Russia is huge and fairly easily infiltrated by Ukrainians who very often speak fluent Russian, and drones don't necessarily need specialized launching platforms.

I guess it depends on how big a drone is needed to blow up a depot like this. Ukraine's been known to modify Cessna sized planes packed with explosives into drones, could have been one of those and they'd have the range to get there. A smaller drone could definitely be smuggled into Russia pretty easily, but Russia's air defense has been pretty decimated by this point.