2022/2023 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[TheScorpion]

The Coyotes aren't a model for anything. But you also can't really look at them and say tanking doesn't work, because they've shot themselves in the foot countless times with so many poor decisions (and also have gotten exactly zero lottery luck).

fascinating to watch, though

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

The Coyotes aren't a model for anything. But you also can't really look at them and say tanking doesn't work, because they've shot themselves in the foot countless times with so many poor decisions (and also have gotten exactly zero lottery luck).

fascinating to watch, though

This may be true, but they have been the least lucky team when it comes to lotteries. Lots of chances, but no wins.

They haven't picked top 2.

So really, they're an argument in favor of the requirement for a top 2 pick.

I think it's a combination of bad asset management/development/drafting and a sheer lack of fortune.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Detroit’s interesting in this conversation because they are a team that was intentionally bad for a number of years. They brought back Yzerman whom was placed on a pedestal for years here during his time with the Lightning. ‘That’s how you do it’ ‘the Lighting are smart and the Flames are dumb’ was a pretty commonly held belief around here 3-5 years ago.

Fast forward and the Red Wings are now trying to expedite their own rebuild by surrounding a young group of talent, coincidentally 4th and 6th overall picks, with free agent signings. Sounds very Flamsey. Has Yzerman gone senile, or is it that there are many ways to build a contender and each teams path is different?

Yzerman is realizing that he benefited heavily from some seriously lean years in Tampa Bay before he joined. Stamkos first overall in 2008, Hedman second overall in 2009.

Originally Posted by TOfan

Point is being so rigid in a belief that you can not win without a top three, or multiples of them, totally disregards circumstance.

What happens to this belief if Boston wins the cup?

I haven't been rigid in this belief? There are exceptions to every rule. And Bergeron is an exceptional case.

[flamesgod]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

This may be true, but they have been the least lucky team when it comes to lotteries. Lots of chances, but no wins.

They haven't picked top 2.

So really, they're an argument in favor of the requirement for a top 2 pick.

I think it's a combination of bad asset management/development/drafting and a sheer lack of fortune.

They’d be an argument for there’s no guarantee you’ll get a top 2 pick despite being terrible for a long time.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by BlueCharlton

12 of the last 14 teams who have won the cup drafted a key player at #1/2 overall.

Avs, Lightning, Penguins, Blackhawks, Capitals, Kings

Even the Blues and Boston (the two teams who didn't draft a player 1/2 ) had high picks.. Pietrangelo at #3, Seguin and Wheeler for Boston (though they were lower role players at the time)

Tanking for success still requires player development, and time to gather secondary talent and build a competitor (explains your random 7 year deadline for success). But you have to squint really hard to pretend that drafting at the top isn't a key component of winning a cup, though its not the only requirement (still need complementary players and competent management/coaching)


Is tanking the right thing for the Flames NOW, no, we have players signed to long term deals that are essentially unmovable. This ensures we wont be at the bottom for a few years. Last summer was it a path we could have taken? yes absolutely and it may have been worth it, though at the time I was optimistic with the moves Brad made, and we are locked into that direction now for a least a few years. But to say tanking doesn't lead to winning is wrong, I would say its actually a critical step.

I for one hope the flames make it, and if we do I think we could be a tough out. Go flames go!

I want to know how Boston stays on top year after year, despite shedding high end players like Seguin, Wheeler, Hamilton and making some questionable 1R picks. Sure they have Bergeron who is 1OA calibre but they’ve got to be doing something consistently right to stay competitive year in year out.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

On purpose or not, the Flames did tank and got a bunch of high picks that got them Monahan, Bennett , Tkachuk and the pick that got Hamilton. On top of that they got Gaudreau, a legit star level player. Treliving just couldn’t fill out the rest of the team to win. Wasted resources on Brouwer, Neal, Hamonic and garbage goalies.

That era is over. They will try with the current bunch for a couple years and go in tank mode whether they like it or not

The funny thing is that they were supposed to be bad year, but Gaudreau had a Calder worthy season and the Flames won a lot more games then they should have. Gaudreau almost got sent to the minors early in that season.

Funny how things work out. I doubt they trade for Hamilton that year if they had missed and definitely don't trade for Hamonic later.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

On purpose or not, the Flames did tank and got a bunch of high picks that got them Monahan, Bennett , Tkachuk and the pick that got Hamilton. On top of that they got Gaudreau, a legit star level player. Treliving just couldn’t fill out the rest of the team to win. Wasted resources on Brouwer, Neal, Hamonic and garbage goalies.

That era is over. They will try with the current bunch for a couple years and go in tank mode whether they like it or not

They didn't tank, they simply started a rebuild.

"Tanking" implies selling every tradable current asset for futures, ensuring falling to the bottom of the league.

[Shazam]

It's hard to tank - thanks Oilers.

You might have to tank the tank multiple times.

I think if the Flames just said it outright, people would be fine with it.

The organization is extremely proud though.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Robbob

The funny thing is that they were supposed to be bad year, but Gaudreau had a Calder worthy season and the Flames won a lot more games then they should have. Gaudreau almost got sent to the minors early in that season.

Funny how things work out. I doubt they trade for Hamilton that year if they had missed and definitely don't trade for Hamonic later.

I recall the flames were projected to be in the McDavid sweepstakes. Of all the years to surpass expectations……

I’ve said it before but I strongly suspect Treliving thought he would have 2-3 years of rebuilding to start his tenure. Once they made the playoffs, that wasn’t going to be an option. Direction from ownership would have been ‘rebuilds over’, is my bet.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Yzerman is realizing that he benefited heavily from some seriously lean years in Tampa Bay before he joined. Stamkos first overall in 2008, Hedman second overall in 2009.



I haven't been rigid in this belief? There are exceptions to every rule. And Bergeron is an exceptional case.

Sorry, I probably wasn’t clear enough. I didn’t mean you specifically. There’s a common belief by a few posters here that you simply can’t win without top three pick(s), which I don’t think is necessarily true. Do they help, no question yes they do. But, it’s not a strategy I would hang my hat on.

If you were to revisit the 2016 draft, I’d say Tkachuk goes 2nd. Just one example that franchise altering talents can come outside the top 3. As long as you have those players, it should matter how you got them whether you draft them first overall, or in tgg by e fourth round, or trade, or FA signing.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Sorry, I probably wasn’t clear enough. I didn’t mean you specifically. There’s a common belief by a few posters here that you simply can’t win without top three pick(s), which I don’t think is necessarily true. Do they help, no question yes they do. But, it’s not a strategy I would hang my hat on.

If you were to revisit the 2016 draft, I’d say Tkachuk goes 2nd. Just one example that franchise altering talents can come outside the top 3. As long as you have those players, it should matter how you got them whether you draft them first overall, or in tgg by e fourth round, or trade, or FA signing.

No franchise has won a cup in the cap era without a top 5 pick playing for them, with the exception of 1. It's not a matter of debate, and people did debate what effect the pick had on the team (Boston), but the fact is that no team that has won a cup in the cap era did so without a top 4 pick that team made on the roster.
The one team that did win a cup without it's own top 4 pick playing was the 2008 Detroit redwings. This team at this time is relatively known as being one of the best drafted teams of all time, with players like Lidstrom, Datsyuk and Zetterberg coming from late rounds.

Here's the list, and I've added the player(s) for you.

2022: Colorado Avalanche, Coach Jared Bednar ; Mackinnon, Makar
2021: Tampa Bay Lightning, Coach Jon Cooper ; Hedman, Stamkos
2020: Tampa Bay Lightning, Coach Jon Cooper; Hedman, Stamkos
2019: St. Louis Blues, Coach Craig Berube; Alex Pietrangelo
2018: Washington Capitals, Coach Barry Trotz; Ovechkin
2017: Pittsburgh Penguins, Coach Mike Sullivan; Crosby, Malkin
2016: Pittsburgh Penguins, Coach Mike Sullivan; Crosby, Malkin
2015: Chicago Blackhawks, Coach Joel Quenneville; Pat Kane, John Toews
2014: Los Angeles Kings, Coach Darryl Sutter; Drew Doughty
2013: Chicago Blackhawks, Coach Joel Quenneville; Pat Kane, John Toews
2012: Los Angeles Kings, Coach Darryl Sutter; Drew Doughty
2011: Boston Bruins, Coach Claude Julien; TYLER SEGUIN <---
2010: Chicago Blackhawks, Coach Joel Quenneville; Pat Kane, John Toews
2009: Pittsburgh Penguins, Coach Dan Bylsma; Crosby, Malkin
2008: Detroit Red Wings, Coach Mike Babcock; LIDSTROM, DATSYUK, ZETTERBERG
2007: Anaheim Ducks, Coach Randy Carlyle; Bobby Ryan
2006: Carolina Hurricanes, Coach Peter Laviolette; Eric Staal

[Monahammer]

I would posit that the list pretty conclusively shows that you require one of these players on your roster to win the Stanley Cup. Or I guess it can be overcome if you can routinely pull players like Lidstrom and Datsyuk out of late rounds.

[Monahammer]

Side note, check the absolute disparity in team quality between the 03 Devils and the 02 Red wings. One is a total all star team, no wonder at all that they won the cup. The other is... well, pretty convincing that a strong goalie can undo all woes on a roster.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I want to know how Boston stays on top year after year, despite shedding high end players like Seguin, Wheeler, Hamilton and making some questionable 1R picks. Sure they have Bergeron who is 1OA calibre but they’ve got to be doing something consistently right to stay competitive year in year out.

They also signed Pasternak at a bargain price compared to the RFA signings immediately after, so that gave them some flexibility. And their goaltending is usually top shelf. Years of Rask, then finding Ullmark languishing in Buffalo.

you have to wonder how 37 year old Bergeron and 35 year old Krejci will do going forward. Along with 34 year old Marchand and 31 year old Coyle.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I want to know how Boston stays on top year after year, despite shedding high end players like Seguin, Wheeler, Hamilton and making some questionable 1R picks. Sure they have Bergeron who is 1OA calibre but they’ve got to be doing something consistently right to stay competitive year in year out.

They have a good management group no question, but Boston is also a super desirable location. They always get first dibs on the free agent crop which goes a long ways in being able to build a competitive team.

In 05/06 they finished 5th last. That summer they signed Chara.

Teams like Boston, and NYR always have a leg up when it comes to team building.

[bluejays]

I’m not sure an elite defenceman can carry a team these days. In the playoffs you certainly need a solid goaltender who can steal a game or two and a franchise forward who can lead with elite skills. As amazing as Colorado is on paper and as good as Makar is, if it’s not for MacKinnon they’re not winning. But take away Makar and they’re probably still good enough to contend. Can say the same for every team with an elite dman. Makes them much better but not as important as a franchise forward. At least it’s something I believe.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

They have a good management group no question, but Boston is also a super desirable location. They always get first dibs on the free agent crop which goes a long ways in being able to build a competitive team.

In 05/06 they finished 5th last. That summer they signed Chara.

Teams like Boston, and NYR always have a leg up when it comes to team building.

Classic oiler fan victim mentality.

You know what also gives a team a leg up? 4 first overall picks in six years. Imagine how inept you have to be to come out of that with only half of them playing for your team and 0 cups.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

They didn't tank, they simply started a rebuild.

"Tanking" implies selling every tradable current asset for futures, ensuring falling to the bottom of the league.

That’s why I said on purpose or not. They were bad and had their chances at good picks to build a team.
Very few teams in purpose tanking like Arizona or Pitts when they got Mario. They were just bad.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

No franchise has won a cup in the cap era without a top 5 pick playing for them, with the exception of 1. It's not a matter of debate, and people did debate what effect the pick had on the team (Boston), but the fact is that no team that has won a cup in the cap era did so without a top 4 pick that team made on the roster.
The one team that did win a cup without it's own top 4 pick playing was the 2008 Detroit redwings. This team at this time is relatively known as being one of the best drafted teams of all time, with players like Lidstrom, Datsyuk and Zetterberg coming from late rounds.

Here's the list, and I've added the player(s) for you.

2022: Colorado Avalanche, Coach Jared Bednar ; Mackinnon, Makar
2021: Tampa Bay Lightning, Coach Jon Cooper ; Hedman, Stamkos
2020: Tampa Bay Lightning, Coach Jon Cooper; Hedman, Stamkos
2019: St. Louis Blues, Coach Craig Berube; Alex Pietrangelo
2018: Washington Capitals, Coach Barry Trotz; Ovechkin
2017: Pittsburgh Penguins, Coach Mike Sullivan; Crosby, Malkin
2016: Pittsburgh Penguins, Coach Mike Sullivan; Crosby, Malkin
2015: Chicago Blackhawks, Coach Joel Quenneville; Pat Kane, John Toews
2014: Los Angeles Kings, Coach Darryl Sutter; Drew Doughty
2013: Chicago Blackhawks, Coach Joel Quenneville; Pat Kane, John Toews
2012: Los Angeles Kings, Coach Darryl Sutter; Drew Doughty
2011: Boston Bruins, Coach Claude Julien; TYLER SEGUIN <---
2010: Chicago Blackhawks, Coach Joel Quenneville; Pat Kane, John Toews
2009: Pittsburgh Penguins, Coach Dan Bylsma; Crosby, Malkin
2008: Detroit Red Wings, Coach Mike Babcock; LIDSTROM, DATSYUK, ZETTERBERG
2007: Anaheim Ducks, Coach Randy Carlyle; Bobby Ryan
2006: Carolina Hurricanes, Coach Peter Laviolette; Eric Staal

Well, sure, but there has to be a little more correlation between when the pick happened and the cup. Stamkos was drafted in 08 and Hedman in 09. It took them 10 years to win a cup after that.

The Flames do have a top 5 drafted player on the team right now, of course.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Yep, I don't see how that is romanticizing. You pretty much need to be bad to be good in the NHL if you want to win a cup. You can't just push each year for the playoffs, you need those franchise reset years.

I like the stats that a poster showed a few months ago about how the best rebuilds are about two separate "bad" periods. You need to bottom out once, acquire a potential franchise player or two, then draft high again a couple years later and get a star player or two more. Then you've got star/elite players coming up with separation between them.

I think it's easy to mistake correlation for causation here. Since 2000, 14 different franchises have won the Stanley Cup. Five of them did not have a top three pick on their roster at the time. Several won multiple times (sometimes with and sometimes without a top three). Since 1999, the draft immediately before that 1999-2000 season, only five teams in the NHL have not had a top three pick (Vegas, Detroit, Calgary, Nashville, and San Jose, with the latter two having top three picks in 1998, while Vegas has had a very short draft history). It seems to me that since 2000, the probability of a Cup win has been no higher with a top three pick than it has been without one, since almost every franchise has had one in that period, and most of the five teams who didn't were considered Cup contenders at some point over that span of time (and Detroit won several).