Russia invades Ukraine

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Interesting, I wonder how much they will poke the bear before it threatens a nuclear option...

At this point I think we are all fairly clear the Russian Bear is the one RFK dumped in Central Park, dead, rotting and oh so smelly

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by Cappy

What's the reason for the railway collapse?

Ukrainian artillery and bombing campaigns?

Heres more on the story

https://twitter.com/user/status/1820629865386721596

[Cheese]

There are several images and videos of dozens of Russian soldiers being captured by Ukrainian Forces

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821210546609250379


Total chaos in Kursk, and a state of emergency has been declared. Some report indicates the city mayor fled to moscow.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821249128241807731


One of the most well-known Z-military correspondents, Yevgeny Poddubny, has been eliminated. His channel has over 700,000 subscribers.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821250307617095685

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821255271827828939


Ukrainian F-16s suspected to be involved in the Ukrainian offensive into Russia's Kursk region. There are reports *several* Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopters have been shot down.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821060637696651641


From the fog of war, voices are heard that in the Kursk region, the russian gas metering station "Sudzha" has come under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821157437811871751


A Ukrainian source involved in the Kursk operation tells me that special forces from the security service of Ukraine, the SBU, “shot down a Russian helicopter using a [first-person view] drone.”

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821131250406490207


A Russian soldier is seen kicking the dead bodies of his fallen comrades out of the back of a pickup truck as they flee from battle.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821185473462534241


350 km² of Russian territory in Kursk Oblast is now in the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to Russian media.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821257501284643291

[Firebot]

It first appeared to be your typical Free Russia Legion that did some guerilla style tactics every so often, but this one at this point seems quite different. Did Russia seriously think they could leave their whole country completely undefended while sending all their forces in Ukraine, and think they had some magical border line?

They lost Sumy and the Kharkiv region back in late 2022 because they left some token defense thinking it was enough and suddenly lost the entirety of the area.

For Russia to announce a state of emergency in Kursk seems quite the move. Typically they downplayed this stuff and all Ukraine counter offensives to voluntary withdrawals.

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-state-o...rovocation.%22

And great for Ukraine and I hope to see it amount to something substantial. Time and time again they were forced to not retaliate against Russia even when they were launching missiles from just beyond the border, told to not bomb airfields, even told to stop bombing refineries.

This isn't a game. It's war and Ukraine has been fighting it with both arms tied behind its back.

[burn_this_city]

Freedom for the People's Republic of Kursk!

[nik-]

The Ukrainian Army rampaging through Russia, busting things up, in some sort of Shermanenko's March to the Sea would be hilarious.

[Itse]

Well, it's certainly an interesting development. We're still talking fairly small forces, at most a brigade but some reports are saying just a battalion, so still looking more like raid than an invasion, just a bigger raid with more serious firepower.

That said, I had already been thinking for a while that taking the war across the border does seem like a good way for Ukraine to try and break the stalemate in their favor. I wonder if the reason they've been avoiding doing that is not just optics, but western limitations on the use of their weapons.

I have no idea how realistic it would be logistically, but on a concept level, going around the Russian defenses insteof through them just looks like an obvious move, especially when it would mean taking the fight to the enemy's side of the border.

In any case, those western limitations will look even harder to justify in a situation where battles are happening fully on the Russian side of the border.

This should also force Russians to start properly defending their side of the border instead of piling all their resources into Ukraine... but that's been said before and it didn't happen then so who knows.

Maybe Kursk will hold a referendum to join Ukraine.

[Cheese]

Russian losses per 07/08/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821061205752000946


SitRep - 07/08/24 - Day #2 into the Kursk operation

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821293987187347719


Some thoughts on Ukraine's #Kursk offensive (THREAD):

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821292615473754393

[Huntingwhale]

Wild stuff going on. Might have to create a "Ukraine invades russia" thread at this rate.

[burn_this_city]

Take the Kursk NPP and now you have a solid bargaining chip to get Zaporizhzhya NPP back from the Zombies.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Cheese

Some thoughts on Ukraine's #Kursk offensive (THREAD):

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821292615473754393

Considering how the US leaked Ukraine's secret counteroffensive plans to Russia, and how the US reacted to Ukraine attacking Russian oil infrastructure and rules against US weapons on Russian soil, it's not a shocker that this was kept a secret.

The US is a great ally, but influenced significantly by politics.

[marsplasticeraser]

On the Ukraine invasion into Russia, I was reading that the real reason could be to infiltrate equipment or people into Russia for a future reason.

Discussion was that Russia would struggle to deal with drones launched from inside Russia, but I don't know if that's true.

Also, having Ukrainians in Russia would open up a lot of sabotage opportunities.

Those are both issues that if are possible would eat up manpower and delay a lot of responses.

[burn_this_city]

Russians appealing to the Tsar for assistance.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821592854856417294

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by marsplasticeraser

On the Ukraine invasion into Russia, I was reading that the real reason could be to infiltrate equipment or people into Russia for a future reason.

Discussion was that Russia would struggle to deal with drones launched from inside Russia, but I don't know if that's true.

Also, having Ukrainians in Russia would open up a lot of sabotage opportunities.

Those are both issues that if are possible would eat up manpower and delay a lot of responses.

Its interesting - if Ukraine could sneak in a small squad of special forces (say 30 - 50) into Moscow they could in theory get Putin.

[Firebot]

https://kyivindependent.com/putin-sa...l-be-paid-115/

Displaced residents of Kursk Oblast will be paid $115, Putin decrees

Residents who have been displaced by the ongoing fighting in Russia's Kursk Oblast will be paid 10,000 rubles ($115) each as compensation, President Vladimir Putin said on Aug. 8.

I love how the actual value was used versus rubles.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Its interesting - if Ukraine could sneak in a small squad of special forces (say 30 - 50) into Moscow they could in theory get Putin.

That would be a suicide mission with probably almost nonexistent odds of succeeding, and not even guaranteed to end the war.

While in theory I get the logic of sneaking in troops when the border is down, I don't think it makes much practical sense?

The Russian border is huge and not very well guarded for the most part, so trying to sneak in operatives while Russian military is on high alert and watching the area with everything they have seems to me like an unnecessarily difficult and dangerous way of doing things.

(I would also be very surprised if Ukraine didn't already have operatives inside Russia, as there have been more than a few unexplained fires and explosions there throughout the war.)

[driveway]

Originally Posted by Itse

Well, it's certainly an interesting development. We're still talking fairly small forces, at most a brigade but some reports are saying just a battalion, so still looking more like raid than an invasion, just a bigger raid with more serious firepower.

I read as many as 4 brigades involved, though these are 'elements' from these brigades and not full-strength brigades.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...g-a-huge-risk/

A day later, hundreds of Ukrainian troops from (at least) the 22nd and 88th Mechanized Brigades supported by artillery, drones and air defenses have marched nearly 10 miles into southern Russia, routing local Russian forces and capturing Sudzha along with several other villages.
...
According to unreliable reports, Ukraine has concentrated elements from two to four brigades in the area.

Note: A brigade can be anywhere from 1000 to 8000 troops, with most of the reading I can find indicating a full-strength Ukrainian brigade is around 4000.

[Firebot]

It's hard to understand how much Ukrainian forces have been used for this incursion as its's been extremely secretive, but this does include at least 1 mech brigade. This isn't a small force.

The videos on Reddit and Twitter are absolutely insane with Lgov currently being evacuated and people fleeing. There's videos of Ukrainians forces driving around with not a single soldier to oppose them. There are pictures of a Ukraine soldier in Novoivanovk (NE of Sumy). They even have helicopter air support spotted in Kursk region.

There's another one in Lyubimovka (correction as there is apparently a Lyu- and a Liu in Kursk)

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/

If you look at a map that is very deep in Russian territory. This is also a very large and wide front with what appears to be a few targets of interest.

Apparently Kursk region residents are also complaining because Ukrainians are digging trenches and defenses on their land as they are digging in to stay long term.

...

You are in the middle of a war, and put zero defense or defense in depth on your own borders directly with your enemy and send all your forces and reserves deep in a completely different front...bad things can happen.

[Itse]

There might be some risk that invading Russia will stir up new support for the war among Russians.

It doesn't look like a huge risk at the moment, and Putin seems to have been caught by surprise again... which once again makes him look kinda bad.

[Firebot]

The direction that Ukraine is going and Telegram chatter...it's looking like they may attack Kursk via Lgov versus the direct expected route, or they have a different objective.

You have Ukraine forces running all over Kursk region with no idea how to track their main objective or movements.

The big conundrum is that Russia gets their enemies to submit or retreat by smoking them with non stop artillery. Is Putin willing to decimate Russian towns and cities to do the same here?

Markus Faber (Germany Bundestag defense committee ) doesn't mind if Ukraine uses Leopard tanks stating they are now Ukrainian weapons.

German tanks rolling into Kursk? Historical meme level could be in the future.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1821585426324603379