Can the Flames become a contender without tanking?

[CliffFletcher]

Finishing bottom 9 is where you start to really see decent odds of adding a blue-chipper. Not just because you can draft a good player at 9, but because at 9 your odds of winning the lottery and drafting top 1-2 is 10 per cent, which goes beyond a pipe dream and into the realm of legit chance. Spend three seasons in that range and you have pretty good odds of coming away with something special.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Right now I'm not sure there is even a deal to be made. At least a good one. So I think the delta could be significant. You just don't have enough teams in "buy mod" including for cap reasons.

It's the same math we've discussed, just a matter of how one estimates it:

What is the incremental probability of falling to 10 or below from trading Andersson v. the incremental trade value you get from trading him later?

How one answers that is the key. And it seems we likely have different answers to that question.

And this is where we differ substantially.

There are multiple teams interested in Andersson - what team wouldn't be? Especially with retention. I agree, things are quiet right now, but that isn't the same as no interest. You start calling GMs and say "I'm getting some teams starting to push on Andersson, are you interested in being in the discussions?" If the talk gets them getting serious, great! If it doesn't and the offers are putrid, you tell them all to pound sand. And you're even.

No downside. Talk generates talk and gets people moving.

The potential reward for the Flames is too great to ignore, simply because no one is calling him yet.

[Jiri Hrdina]

You are assuming Conroy isn't doing that though. Perhaps he is.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

You are assuming Conroy isn't doing that though. Perhaps he is.

Yes, perhaps he is. And I hope he is.

Doesn't really change this discussion, which is: should he move Andersson earlier than later?

[traptor]

Can they? Sure
Will they? Probably not.

Regarding Rasmus.

He's wasted on us. What makes him so valuable is his current contract which means nothing to us.

He **should** be more valuable to another team then he is to us.
Hopefully that's reflected in the offers and Conroys mindset.

[keratosis]

If he wants to stay though he should. But, we eventually need more Andersons.

[YyjFlames]

I don't see the Flames moving Andersson unless they get that young top line centre back, and if they get that guy, they are more likely to maintain their position in the standings (and just outside the playoff picture) as that centre position remains their biggest need.

Conroy could trade Andersson for futures, but unless Rasmus is making noise that he wants out -- which doesn't appear to be the case right now -- the leadership group will probably be pretty pissed off if he's moved, and it would undermine Conroy's credibility with them... likely forcing a full rebuild, which doesn't seem to be where the Flames are trying to go.

Andersson's future is the most intriguing of all the current Flames as what happens to him likely charts the Flames next steps (if he resigns, they're going to keep trying to contend; if he's traded for a young centre they're going to keep trying to contend; if he's traded for futures, they're going to rebuild.)

[Yanda]

There is a difference between making the playoffs and being a legitamite contender. If you dont bottom out its hard to get enough franchise players to develop in the same window.

It really hit me hard when my father told me, "I want to see the Flames actually be competitive in my lifetime". That was hard to hear but hes absolutely right.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, perhaps he is. And I hope he is.

Doesn't really change this discussion, which is: should he move Andersson earlier than later?

It’s one of the few levers he can pull at this point. And it’s not even an overt tanking move. It’s the proper management of the asset that just happens to help with solidifying the pick.

[Squirrel]

They need to completely tank and soon! Need to draft truly high end talent to build around. Ideally get a top three draft pick. Need the talent on the ice and a new face of the franchise.
At this rate they will still be a middling bubble team that won’t be able to sell the pricier tickets coming with the new arena.
Could look like when Detroit opened their new rink and you could see all the empty lower bowl seats on tv.

[Jason14h]

I would trade both Anderson and Weegar

In 5 years when you are ready to contend you can trade your “leftover” assets / strengths for the next Weegar or Anderson

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Yanda

There is a difference between making the playoffs and being a legitamite contender. If you dont bottom out its hard to get enough franchise players to develop in the same window.

It really hit me hard when my father told me, "I want to see the Flames actually be competitive in my lifetime". That was hard to hear but hes absolutely right.

They HAVE been competitive though.
It didn't result in extended runs, but that's different.
Would you consider the current version of the Leafs to be competitive?

[Groot]

Originally Posted by Yanda

There is a difference between making the playoffs and being a legitamite contender. If you dont bottom out its hard to get enough franchise players to develop in the same window.

It really hit me hard when my father told me, "I want to see the Flames actually be competitive in my lifetime". That was hard to hear but hes absolutely right.

Did a common hyperbolic statement made by longtime fans of lots of teams really hit you hard? Are you worried that in your father's twilight he'll look back on life and think "wow, great life I've lived but it's all for naught as the hockey team I cheer for never won a Cup"?

[flamesfever]

I don't think there should be any effort to tank. The guys are playing their hearts out, and I don't feel that we should do anything to affect their overall attitude as a team. Besides, with our goalie strength, I think it would be quite difficult to get down to the 9 level that give us the best chance for someone special.

You never know... we may already have that special player we are hoping for.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

They HAVE been competitive though.
It didn't result in extended runs, but that's different.
Would you consider the current version of the Leafs to be competitive?

Leafs probably need more top 8 picks LOL. Having 4 homegrown ones and one traded for one on their roster over the past 6 seasons has won them one playoff series. Maybe they just needed more.

To answer the question, of course a team can be competitive without tanking.

[Yanda]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

They HAVE been competitive though.
It didn't result in extended runs, but that's different.
Would you consider the current version of the Leafs to be competitive?

There is a difference between competitive and being a legitimate contender.

Competitive isnt enough but yes I see the Leafs as a top 5 contender right now,
they have Matthews, Marner and Nylander all in the same window and they are getting decent goaltending and have character guys like Tanev.

I dont think anyone wants the next 10 years of Flames history to be a bubble team with maybe 1 cinderella run where were an underdog.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Yanda

There is a difference between competitive and being a legitimate contender.

Competitive isnt enough but yes I see the Leafs as a top 5 contender right now,
they have Matthews, Marner and Nylander all in the same window and they are getting decent goaltending and have character guys like Tanev.

And yet they have won one (1) playoff series since the 2004 lockout. They are also the only Original Six team that has never been in the Stanley Cup finals since the 1967 expansion.

If you're going to judge the Flames based on their past lack of playoff success, why are you not judging the Leafs by the same standard?

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Yanda

There is a difference between competitive and being a legitimate contender.

Competitive isnt enough but yes I see the Leafs as a top 5 contender right now,
they have Matthews, Marner and Nylander all in the same window and they are getting decent goaltending and have character guys like Tanev.

I dont think anyone wants the next 10 years of Flames history to be a bubble team with maybe 1 cinderella run where were an underdog.

Ok but to this point they haven’t achieved any more success than the Flames last core did.

[Yanda]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

And yet they have won one (1) playoff series since the 2004 lockout. They are also the only Original Six team that has never been in the Stanley Cup finals since the 1967 expansion.

If you're going to judge the Flames based on their past lack of playoff success, why are you not judging the Leafs by the same standard?

Why are you looking at this more than this season specifically? The question was "Would you consider the current version of the Leafs to be competitive?"

[Yanda]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Ok but to this point they haven’t achieved any more success than the Flames last core did.

I dont think the old core was ever considered a contender, or favorite to win the cup. They were competitive and had 1 good year, and players underperformed in the playoffs.. probably because they were hurt (ie: Monahan)