The Eternal Playoff Optimism Thread

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

There is a quality aspect to PDO for sure - if your team is less talented, it's shooting percentage will be consistently lower than a more talented team.

However, that difference is much more marginal than you are implying. The Flames' current PDO is almost off the charts bad - no team remains at that level.

You keep trying to make a point, based entirely on your subjective opinion, about the quality, and implications of the stats. Even though I am a stats guy, I am not a fan of hockey stats, because they contain too much noise, and are unable to generate enough 'like' data points. However, your criticism of this stat is way over the top, and your conclusions are off base.

Um, what?



I have no issue with the stat. It is a quite a simple stat

All I did was observed that the stat actually reflects how they play

It is simple logic

They play a style where they throw everything on net. They do in fact lead the league in low danger shots (fact)
Save percentages of opposing goalies are highest on low danger stats. (Logical, and fact)

Therefore, you would expect them to have a pretty low shooting percentage. And hey, guess what? They are second last in the league, to only Anaheim

That is a simple component of PDO


Sorry. Your post is what is over the top, my friend.
Did you simply see my name and immediately start ranting without stopping to think, like a bull seeing red?

[Always Earned Never Given]

Thank God this team lacks "talent".

In High danger goals for in all situations (yes that includes our dismal PP) they are 10th
Their shooting % in HDG is 19%. League average is 18% and Kraken are at the top at 22% ( I guess they must be elite).

In High danger goals against in all situations they are 5th and opp. are shooting at 17% (League avg again as mentioned above is at 18%)

Now the low and med GF Flames are middle of the pack as they shoot more but their shooting % is 1% less than average.

Finally the low and med GA.

As we all know this is where the problem lies. Average save % is .932 and flames sit at .909 (facing 1170 shots)

I picked a team that gave up the similar amount of low/medium shots (closest was 1185 and .932 save %) And Seattle gave up 26 less goals.

26 less goals over 61 games is a few more wins no?

Bottom line is the 18 skaters should be tops in the conference but the goalies should be in Clb territory.



oh and last time I checked Flames 65 posts led the league.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ right

For avoidance of doubt, I didn’t say the team lacked talent.

Their offense is fine on the whole.

But their shooting percentage in all situations, which directly affects PDO, is skewed down due to the excess volume of low danger shots.

[Bingo]

I think high shot volume teams are bound to have low shooting percentages for sure ... and that will weigh down the PDO.

Totally agree.

But 32nd spot is 32nd spot. Not sure the shot volume should send them to the very bottom.

[Robbob]

Just keep it simple. Win tonight and you are 3 points back of both WC teams. 5 points back of the 3rd PAC. Could use a little help for DET who plays Seattle tonight.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Um, what?



I have no issue with the stat. It is a quite a simple stat

All I did was observed that the stat actually reflects how they play

It is simple logic

They play a style where they throw everything on net. They do in fact lead the league in low danger shots (fact)
Save percentages of opposing goalies are highest on low danger stats. (Logical, and fact)

Therefore, you would expect them to have a pretty low shooting percentage. And hey, guess what? They are second last in the league, to only Anaheim

That is a simple component of PDO


Sorry. Your post is what is over the top, my friend.
Did you simply see my name and immediately start ranting without stopping to think, like a bull seeing red?

You missed the point, which is that these things you are referring to do not explain the large discrepancy in the Flames' PDO. They explain some of it, but no where near all of it. You are trying to argue the stats without doing any of the math.

[taxbuster]

It's tough to be optimistic about playoffs when other teams are arming themselves with decent players and the Flames are....

...still outside looking in, albeit with noses pressed against the glass. Hopefully they will, but I'm not expecting more than 4 games if they do.

[Always Earned Never Given]

Originally Posted by taxbuster

It's tough to be optimistic about playoffs when other teams are arming themselves with decent players and the Flames are....

...still outside looking in, albeit with noses pressed against the glass. Hopefully they will, but I'm not expecting more than 4 games if they do.

With 21 games remaining, all they need is to trade this year's Marky .887 for career Marky .910.

If they do, 97 to 98 points is within reach.

Then, Western conference is wide open so if Colorado does not finish tops in their division, doubt Flames lose in 4 vs Jets, Stars or the top team in the Pacific.

[Philly06Cup]

"Not expecting more than 4 games" if they make the playoffs.

Seriously, get out of this thread with that attitude.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by taxbuster

It's tough to be optimistic about playoffs when other teams are arming themselves with decent players and the Flames are....

...still outside looking in, albeit with noses pressed against the glass. Hopefully they will, but I'm not expecting more than 4 games if they do.

In order to make it, the Flames have to best the best team in the West for the rest of the season.
This means goaltending is solid, Huberdeau is a stud and everyone else if contributing strongly.

IF that happens, I like the Flames chances against anyone because it won't be the Flames we know from this year, it will be crazy, super Flames team that is firing on all cylinders that we've never seen before.

This is why it's equally unlikely they make it but also very promising if they do; because that's a totally different looking team.

[midniteowl]

The Flames need to have players not have brain cramp in the most inopportune time, ie Backlund took stupid penalty last game against the Bruins. Zadorov throwing that unnecessary bit hit during a penalty kill. If none of that happened, Flames beat the Bruins and gotten 2 points instead of 1.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by midniteowl

The Flames need to have players not have brain cramp in the most inopportune time, ie Backlund took stupid penalty last game against the Bruins. Zadorov throwing that unnecessary bit hit during a penalty kill. If none of that happened, Flames beat the Bruins and gotten 2 points instead of 1.

Yeah that’s a fair point. Thanks to Vladar it was a one goal game but stil Flames had the lead. No reason to blow it.

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by Philly06Cup

"Not expecting more than 4 games" if they make the playoffs.

Seriously, get out of this thread with that attitude.

Nope.

[genetic_phreek]

14-5-1, let's f***ing go!

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

14-5-1, let's f***ing go!

The way Marky has played the last two games, I think that's the floor.

I've been cautiously gaining optimism since the Rangers game. Of course the Philly, Vegas and Colorado games were setbacks, but IFF this first shot, first goal thing is behind the team, it feels more doable.

It looks and feels, the team wants to compete. That's not the feeling I've had earlier in the season.

Unless Tre gets crazy offers tomorrow or comes across the deal of the century, I hope he stands pat. Other than that, OK coming back would be the best deal the Flames could make.

GFG

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

The only way they "run the table" is with an immediate significant change to the team make up

Selling a couple regulars, promoting youth, and even trading Vladar to promote Wolf are the kind of moves that could, maybe, shock this group into place

They're too complacent as is

They aren't going to boot the coach for a coaching bump, so they have to do the equivalent with roster changes and hope it sends a message through the group

[Goriders]

They pretty much have to win at a 75% clip with substandard goaltending and scoring finish.

Nashville will probably pass them.

Maybe?

My guess is some players will be leaving tomorrow.

[Barnet Flame]

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

14-5-1, let's f***ing go!

We've got one of the 5 already!

Play-offs, here we come!

[Flamesfan05]

No worries. The Jets won’t win another game

The Flames will be comfortably in the playoffs

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by taxbuster

Nope.

Well that is one way to announce to the board you're an a-hole.