[Rumour] Oilers and Sharks talking Erik Karlsson

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Exactly..

If SJ Would conceivably retain 4.5M, then they would recieve a lot more bidders. And chances are that nearly any other team would be able to offer better chips than Edmonton.

Anything of real value is already playing on the Oilers roster, and they're not going to trade anything that hurts the current team

So you're left with a couple B prospects and a late 1st .. I seriously doubt the sharks take their scraps in order to continue paying 40% of his salary for years

They'll find better value from virtually any other trade partner

[Northendzone]

There is no possible way the oilers could,ice a team with Karlson, mcdavid, nurse and draistal even with drai only making $8.5 is there? That is ~$40+ million

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

There is no possible way the oilers could,ice a team with Karlson, mcdavid, nurse and draistal even with drai only making $8.5 is there? That is ~$40+ million

let me introduce you to the "Toronto Maple Leafs"

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

let me introduce you to the "Toronto Maple Leafs"

Well the Oilers supposedly have 4 Giordanos to the Leafs one.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Exactly..

If SJ Would conceivably retain 4.5M, then they would recieve a lot more bidders. And chances are that nearly any other team would be able to offer better chips than Edmonton.

Anything of real value is already playing on the Oilers roster, and they're not going to trade anything that hurts the current team

So you're left with a couple B prospects and a late 1st .. I seriously doubt the sharks take their scraps in order to continue paying 40% of his salary for years

They'll find better value from virtually any other trade partner

If Karlsson was a UFA this off season I would guess he gets north of $10 mil and more than 3 years term. He has 3 years left at $11.5 mil. If they retain salary, max they should consider is $1.5 to $2 mil.

IMO they are much better off trading for bad short term contracts then retaining for 3 years a huge cap hit like $4mil or more. They are positioned right now to gain picks/prospects for Karlsson, gain picks prospects for Meier and lilely get a high end prospect with their own first. They are looking pretty good in a year IMO if they do well in those 2 trades. If they luck out and get Bedard, they will regret retaining too much salary.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

If Karlsson was a UFA this off season I would guess he gets north of $10 mil and more than 3 years term. He has 3 years left at $11.5 mil. If they retain salary, max they should consider is $1.5 to $2 mil.

IMO they are much better off trading for bad short term contracts then retaining for 3 years a huge cap hit like $4mil or more. They are positioned right now to gain picks/prospects for Karlsson, gain picks prospects for Meier and lilely get a high end prospect with their own first. They are looking pretty good in a year IMO if they do well in those 2 trades. If they luck out and get Bedard, they will regret retaining too much salary.

Retaining a large amount shouldn't hurt them at all. First of all, it would make the price Edmonton has to pay higher, always a plus. Second, if they're trading Karlsson and Meier for picks and prospects, they're not planning to be good next year, and maybe not even the year after

And finally, even if they luck out and get Bedard, his cost for the next three seasons would be known and not that expensive.

[Jason14h]

Retaining is real money as well though - it’s not just cap space

20$ million in real world dollars has a ton of value in itself . That’s 50 extra scouts a season for the 4 years you could employ (using easy $100k math)

Or just put it in your pocket as an owner !

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

let me introduce you to the "Toronto Maple Leafs"

The difference is there are very good support players that want to play for the Maple Leafs at excellent value contracts (Giordano, Spezza (previously), etc.). The Oilers don’t have this luxury and have to overpay for sub-standard players and rely on recruiting DB players that no other teams will sign. Leafs and Oilers not an apples to apples comparison here.

[Sofa GM]

This whole Karlsson acquisition is a ridiculous rumour likely started by an Oilers fanboy. If SJ is retaining $3-4MM it starts with 2023 1st, 2024 1st, Holloway, Bouchard, Yamamoto. If they need to take another bad contract like Foegele add 2026 1st or 2023 2nd plus Bourgault. SJ can absolutely clean them out with that type of retention.

[The Cobra]

I get that Karlsson is having an unreal offensive season, but I'm not sure I'm spending a ton of assets(and cap space) to get him for the payoffs.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Ped

Retaining a large amount shouldn't hurt them at all. First of all, it would make the price Edmonton has to pay higher, always a plus. Second, if they're trading Karlsson and Meier for picks and prospects, they're not planning to be good next year, and maybe not even the year after

And finally, even if they luck out and get Bedard, his cost for the next three seasons would be known and not that expensive.

But you are retaining for Karlsson for 3 years. If I was them I would retain to get the best return, but not $4.5 mil.

The plan is to rebuild, but they have been for a few years now. If they add a bunch of good prospects and first round picks and try and maximize their cap space be retaining as little as possible, they could be good in a year IMO. They are wasting cap space on Jones and Burns already, why waste another $4 mil on a guy who is on pace for 100 points?

Cap space also can be used as a way to gain more picks and prospects by taking on bad deals in the future from teams with no cap space.

If they retain $2 mil and take on a bad contract, the return should be good enough. If they retain $4.5, I don't know if the Oilers have enough to get it done.

[topfiverecords]

The league should have a loaner clause. You can borrow the player with some minor retention but as soon as we’re good again you have to give him back.

[Major Major]

I don't think we've seen a retention deal where significant salary is retained over 5 years, but the formula for getting rid of dead cap seems pretty set at a 1st round pick for ~6 million. Maybe SJ is willing to do a bulk deal but the retention itself could easily be 3-4 1st round picks. Then you look at the cost to flip a couple bad contracts for dollar in dollar out so 2 more picks. 2nd and a 3rd? Then you consider the price of a 100 point Norris winning d man on a good contract signed long term.

Why wouldn't SJ be asking for:

Schaeffer
Bourgealt
Holloway
23 1st
24 1st
25 1st
2xmid picks

It makes no sense unless sharks are highly motivated to make a deal

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by Major Major

I don't think we've seen a retention deal where significant salary is retained over 5 years, but the formula for getting rid of dead cap seems pretty set at a 1st round pick for ~6 million. Maybe SJ is willing to do a bulk deal but the retention itself could easily be 3-4 1st round picks. Then you look at the cost to flip a couple bad contracts for dollar in dollar out so 2 more picks. 2nd and a 3rd? Then you consider the price of a 100 point Norris winning d man on a good contract signed long term.

Why wouldn't SJ be asking for:

Schaeffer
Bourgealt
Holloway
23 1st
24 1st
25 1st
2xmid picks

It makes no sense unless sharks are highly motivated to make a deal

I think they want Bouchard instead of Bourgealt. Edmonton isn’t going to be able to afford Bouchard anyhow.

[dino7c]

In the games Calgary played against Karlsson he was absolutely terrible defensively...to the point Millen was laughing at how bad he was.

I think he put up a few points in huge losses...

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Amazing they saw McDavid-Drai-Karlsson at the ASG and thought “that could be us!” when that trio looked like one of the worst defensive trios I have ever seen in professional hockey.

I don't disagree, but I don't think anyone should be judged based on that farce of a game.

[FlamesAddiction]

It's not like San Jose should feel pressure to trade Karlsson. In fact, there could be a bigger market in the offseason when more teams start retooling and and have more maneuverability within the cap. It's not like he is a pending UFA that they risk losing for nothing if something doesn't get done now.

[Northendzone]

given that EK's name is being reported, i am assuming that it means he is open to being traded.

surely no gm's would get into some serious conversation, only to have the player say no at the last minute - would they?

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It's not like San Jose should feel pressure to trade Karlsson. In fact, there could be a bigger market in the offseason when more teams start retooling and and have more maneuverability within the cap. It's not like he is a pending UFA that they risk losing for nothing if something doesn't get done now.

This 100%, unless they absolutely clean the cupboards of the Oilers in prospects and draft capital for the next 3 years there is no reason to retain significant salary.

Holloway
Schaefer
Bouchard
Foegele
2023 1st
2023 2nd
2024 1st
2026 1st

If they don't want to include Bouchard replace with Broberg and 2024 2nd. No lottery protection on any of the first-round picks. The 2026 1st is important because Pissy will be gone, McDavid may have asked for a trade and Karlsson will be really bad and they again could be vying for winning the draft lottery.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Retaining is real money as well though - it’s not just cap space

20$ million in real world dollars has a ton of value in itself . That’s 50 extra scouts a season for the 4 years you could employ (using easy $100k math)

Or just put it in your pocket as an owner !

Are there any sites that show the total amount of money retained on the various transactions? CapFriendly has the percentages and cap hits retained, but doesn't detail the length of the retention or total money retained.

Most retained-salary transactions are deadline deals in the final year of the contract, so the team is only retaining a relatively small amount. I assume Kessel was the most cash retained (15% of an $8 million cap hit for 7 years), but I'd be curious to see what other teams have done.