[GDT] Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames 8:00pm TV: SNW/E/O, CBC, TVAS2 - RADIO SN960

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

lol, I guess Lewis is a well paid 3rd line shut down winger...

I guess we could go through and compare Lucic's numbers with numbers of 4th liners on contending teams... time consuming, and probably not going to change your mind anyway.

Good teams have players that play beyond their salary, I think it safe to assume Lewis is one of those defensively.

My worry on him though is time with and away from Mikael Backlund.

With he's 1.66 xGA60
Without he's 2.22

Both good numbers but he certainly benefits from Backlund (as most do).

And I'm not as stubborn as you think. Just feel like I'm fighting a wall of insanity these days.

[Manhattanboy]

Sometimes I think much more statistical analysis goes on here than among the coaching staff.

Darryl probably canned the guy who handed him the spreadsheets off the printer.

[Mathgod]

Going through the numbers of the 4th liners on a number of contending teams... as expected, they almost always have better xGA/60 than Lucic.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Going through the numbers of the 4th liners on a number of contending teams... as expected, they almost always have better xGA/60 than Lucic.

Thanks for the partially done update!

He's the 9th best player defensively on the average team, I don't think it will be a shock that contending teams have better 10th best (fourth line) players than the average 9th.

[Freeway]

Having covered so many Flames drafts that I've ran out of fingers to count them on, they've veered towards a "little of everything" model of drafting under Brad Treliving. They work their list, but within their drafting hierarchy they opt towards a variety in terms of positions, playing styles and physical development.


They did the opposite under Darryl Sutter and ended up with too many of one type of player, and their developmental system suffered greatly for it.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Locke

Unless its Anne.

She can probably skate better than most of our current 4th line. Maybe even throw a hit or two as well.

The poster clearly said Miss Hathaway.

[TheScorpion]

Where I think the dissonance might start to creep in on that is where you draft a little of everything but you only seek out one type of player when it comes time to actually promote them. Have to give them credit for targeting Coronato and promoting Mangiapane in recent years but they need to keep promoting guys based on merit and accomplishments in the A instead of pigeonholing for certain physical attributes. It'll be something to watch for as this season plays out and guys go down with injury.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Thanks for the partially done update!

He's the 9th best player defensively on the average team, I don't think it will be a shock that contending teams have better 10th best (fourth line) players than the average 9th.

He's 10th best on the Flames and only a smidge better than Dube and Kadri in that metric. It's basically a three-way tie for 10th. The only player on the team significantly worse is Mangiapane who is having a disastrous start to the season.

Looch's 2.84 is a bad number, especially when you consider the 4th line is reasonably sheltered and not usually out there against opposing team's top lines.

The ironic thing is that players who are worst in that metric are actually generally 1st line guys, believe it or not. For example MacKinnon and Rantanen are at 2.9 and 3.21, respectively.

[Aarongavey]

Hoping that Huberdeau builds off the last game. Felt it was probably his best game as a Flame. If he becomes a game breaker it would be big for a team that does not really have any other forwards that look like they can be elite.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by D as in David

The poster clearly said Miss Hathaway.

Nope. Anne.

[monkeyman]

The fourth line is designed to play a heavy game, forecheck and physically wear down opposition players/defenders, which should lead to defensive breakdowns. That's not happening if you have a team made up of guys who are 5'7". That would make us one of the easiest teams to play against. Maybe instead of worrying about the fourth line not scoring, we should worry more about the other three lines whose job it is to score?
The fourth line is the least of our problems.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

20 game win streak upcoming. GFG.

Ribbit!

[N-E-B]

Maybe I’m taking crazy pills but I really don’t think the 4th line, Lucic included, is an issue this year.

The issue is 100% our top forwards and goaltender. Why are we arguing about Lucic’s value? Taking him out wouldn't make one iota of a difference. This team won’t turn it around until those guys turn it around.

[Backstop]

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Where I think the dissonance might start to creep in on that is where you draft a little of everything but you only seek out one type of player when it comes time to actually promote them. Have to give them credit for targeting Coronato and promoting Mangiapane in recent years but they need to keep promoting guys based on merit and accomplishments in the A instead of pigeonholing for certain physical attributes. It'll be something to watch for as this season plays out and guys go down with injury.

Not just Mangiapane though ... they promoted Rasmus Andersson, Oliver Kylington, and Dillon Dube.

None of them huge. None of them first round picks.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

And the guys with one game or similar (Holmstrom, Tracey, Poulin, Foote etc) have been far worse in the AHL. That's the kind of stuff a player sees and wonders how they're ahead.

How many of those players got into games without their team suffering from injuries to a player who plays the same position (or got called up late in the season to play in garbage-time games)?

The Flames have been remarkably healthy in the forward ranks in recent years. They were bottom of the league in terms of man-games lost the last 2 seasons.

That luck isn't going to last forever, and when it ends, those opportunities will happen for the AHL players, like they have for those other players on the other teams.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by N-E-B

Maybe I’m taking crazy pills but I really don’t think the 4th line, Lucic included, is an issue this year.

The issue is 100% our top forwards and goaltender. Why are we arguing about Lucic’s value? Taking him out wouldn't make one iota of a difference. This team won’t turn it around until those guys turn it around.

[Mathgod]

The data clearly shows that Lucic is a liability out there, especially in the past month. He will continue to play and it will be to the team's detriment.

Ignore this reality all you want, but pretending that he's doing just fine for a 4th liner doesn't change the fact that he isn't.

I trust Sutter and I'm glad he's the head coach of this team. But he definitely has his blind spots.

For the record though yes, it's also true that the top 6 forwards on this team need to be better. Especially Mangiapane.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

The data clearly shows that Lucic is a liability out there, especially in the past month. He will continue to play and it will be to the team's detriment.

Ignore this reality all you want, but pretending that he's doing just fine for a 4th liner doesn't change the fact that he isn't.

I trust Sutter and I'm glad he's the head coach of this team. But he definitely has his blind spots.

For the record though yes, it's also true that the top 6 forwards on this team need to be better. Especially Mangiapane.

I don't think anyone is making Lucic out to be a stud or a saviour. He's lost a step for sure.

He's just not as bad as some are claiming, and personally I think there are some intangible issues that the coach and I think players (from comments we've seen) value more than the average Flames fan that's upset the team is losing and chose to target the current team's worst players (and not their best)

[Royle9]

Pair of lower bowl tickets up for grabs.
Reasonable donation to the childrens hospital is all I ask!

Msg me, first come first serve.

Go flames go