Strength of Schedule Update

[Drunk Uncle]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I've argued before that the differences in strength of schedule in the NHL are very minor compared to all the other factors that are out there so I won't repeat any of that. I will just make a couple of points:

Based on opponent's winning percentage only and nothing else, Flames would gain 3 points on Seattle rest of year. I mention Seattle because they have the hardest remaining schedule of teams Flames are competing with from the division.

The SOS graphs don't take into account home/away. Flames have the easiest SOS remaining in the league but I'd argue the Coyotes have an easier remaining schedule. They have 14 more home games than road games rest of the way. Flames have 3 more road games.

This is how I see it too: strength of schedule matters and the impact with the parity in the league is marginal.

For me the Flames have to elevate their play to ultimately take advantage of the SOS. If they do, they should be able to increase the impact of points gained given they are playing easier teams.

It's a way better problem to have vs having a really tough schedule and having to play way better.

[FlamesAddiction]

I think there are too many variables and moving parts when considering the schedule. When it comes to schedule difficulty, I mostly look at travel, back-to-backs, number of game within a time frame, and matinees. Things that effect player energy and routines.

When it comes to playing "good" teams and "bad" teams on the schedule, I think it gets a little hard to predict. Some good teams perform poorly at the beginning of the season, while poor teams may not. You really don't have a true idea of what teams are good or poor in a given season until 25 games in, but sometimes not until much later. Some teams get better or worse as the season goes on. Maybe it comes out in the wash, but there is no way to tell.

Plus, players get hot and cold. The schedule might say that you are playing a string of lower quality opponents, but if a few happen to be going into hot streaks, it may take away that advantage, and vice versa. Again, maybe this kind of luck evens out over the course of a season, but it does throw schedule predictability out the window.

[Classic_Sniper]

Strength of schedule only matters if you can consistently beat the teams below you. That doesn't seem to be the case this season though, the Flames seem to play down to their opponents' level regardless of who they play and every game ends up becoming a one goal nail bitter.

Especially curious to see how they play the Sharks this season. I think they beat us fair and square 3 times last season, so I wonder how the series ends up going this year.

[Bingo]

Every time I post this I feel we see the same argument, credit to Strange Brew for specifically saying he wasn't going to do that.

I never said it means they're made in the shade going forward.

Just means all other things held equal (their play etc) that they will have a lower degree of difficulty and with that likely (said likely!) more points.

That's it.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Drunk Uncle

This is how I see it too: strength of schedule matters and the impact with the parity in the league is marginal.

For me the Flames have to elevate their play to ultimately take advantage of the SOS. If they do, they should be able to increase the impact of points gained given they are playing easier teams.

It's a way better problem to have vs having a really tough schedule and having to play way better.

What do you do when you get to the playoffs?

Lobby for everyone to get participation medals?

The Flames are losing to strong teams and weak teams. Till they start playing better charts aren’t going to save them from themselves.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Goriders

What do you do when you get to the playoffs?

Lobby for everyone to get participation medals?

The Flames are losing to strong teams and weak teams. Till they start playing better charts aren’t going to save them from themselves.

Who is saying anything but that? Honestly.

The need to stand behind a pulpit on some topics gets a little tiresome.

[Goriders]

The strength of schedule metric just seems like a tailor made excuse for under performing teams. It relies on all of the teams maintaining the same performance level all year.

I guess what I’m saying is irregardless of who they are playing. If the don’t start playing better the next chart to review will be their handicaps in the spring.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Goriders

The strength of schedule metric just seems like a tailor made excuse for under performing teams. It relies on all of the teams maintaining the same performance level all year.

I guess what I’m saying is irregardless of who they are playing. If the don’t start playing better the next chart to review will be their handicaps in the spring.

But that's already incorrect in my mind.

We can argue about the severity of the impact, but they don't have to play better to achieve better results if their schedule has less difficult games as a % going forward.

All things held equal they will win at a higher win percentage with lesser opponents.

The fact that this is an argument is just insane to me.

Here is more data ...

The actual split based on that actual standings to date.



They have 7 games against the "Bedard" teams ... to date they've had zero.
They have 8 games against the "Door Matt" teams ... to date they've had three.
They have 12 games against "below average" teams ... to date they've had 8.
They have 19 against "average" teams ... to date they've had 12.

And we are saying this won't make a difference?

Really?

[Paulie Walnuts]

Is berard supposed to be Bedard?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Is berard supposed to be Bedard?

Yeah typo.

I'll fix

[Paulie Walnuts]

So Arizona and Columbus are out of the Bedard mix? Or do you have them and Philly as doormats?

[dino7c]

Some bad teams had hottish starts...Its actually favorable to play them later in the season when they are in full tank more and have sold off players. Flames haven't played many Western bottom feeders yet.

[Strange Brew]

Speaking of looking for things that are out of the team's control, are there any good metrics for impact of injuries?

Man games lost is interesting, but that would imply a Ritchie injury means as much as a Lindholm injury.
Salary lost to injury is a little more interesting, but that implies a Lucic injury means more than a Tanev injury.

Need a WAR lost to injury statistic.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

So Arizona and Columbus are out of the Bedard mix? Or do you have them and Philly as doormats?

Chicago and Anaheim currently.

But don't focus on the name of the category ... I'm just picking teams that are between .250 and .350 in win percentage.

The only category of weak teams where the Flames have played a percentage greater than what they should have is "average" 23% vs 28%

The rest are all weighted higher the rest of the way.

[dino7c]

Would Kylington even count? because the Flames are missing him big time

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Speaking of looking for things that are out of the team's control, are there any good metrics for impact of injuries?

Man games lost is interesting, but that would imply a Ritchie injury means as much as a Lindholm injury.
Salary lost to injury is a little more interesting, but that implies a Lucic injury means more than a Tanev injury.

Need a WAR lost to injury statistic.

I've dabbled with a injury vs minutes played in the past which I think points to impact players.

But there isn't great info in man games lost on the net.

Hidden stat (proprietary)

[Backstop]

[dino7c]

3 worst teams all in the west...2 in the Flames division and they have yet to play them

That's like 12 games right there

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Backstop

So the guy we’re slotted to draft is 5’10” and 165 lbs.

Here we go again.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

So the guy we’re slotted to draft is 5’10” and 165 lbs.

Here we go again.

We will end up taking Brett's brother Callium Ritchie.