[Signing] Canucks sign JT Miller to extension (7 years, $8 mil AAV)

[Erick Estrada]

They are going to have to make the playoffs at the expense of another team. There’s a few that could fall out as anything can happen. All the pressure is on Demko as few teams require their goaltender to steal as many wins. Average goaltending isn’t good enough behind their team defense. It could happen though. Oilers are a McDavid long term injury away from draft lottery status and the King are no slam dunk. Flames could take time to gel with all the key new players.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by transplant99

In his last 4 seasons with the Leafs he was 9th among their forwards for PP time per game.

I do not expect a repeat of last years numbers but he will be better than 50 pts playing behind Lindholm but ahead of Backlund on the depth chart. I mean his career average is 57 points per 82, and that was with limited ice time because of the depth at C on the teams he was on.

And Mangiapane will be the main center of attention? Huberdeau/Lindholm might have a say in that.

Counting back:

Last year in TOR: PP1 (tied within 2 seconds of the other 4 guys)
17-18: 2:05 (6th)...the five above him were 2:08-2:16
16-17: 2:15 (7th)...six above were 2:22-2:35
15-16: 2:40 (7th)...higher forwards were 2:42-2:55 and Phaneuf 3:02. Michalek/Parenteau/JVR/Nylander/Bozak were those F's. It's understandable to slot behind Matthews/Marner/Nylander, but I don't know how much you can complain if you can't beat out Bozak to be the clear 1C on PP1...

I think your stat must be including a few guys who played very few games...it seems he was generally on PP1.

[dino7c]

Kadri is coming off an over 100 point pace, is an elite 2 way center, was a big part of the most recent cup Champs including an OT winner in the SCF and was a UFA.

Miller scored 99 points in meaningless games and wasn't a UFA yet

Apples/oranges

Miller obviously wanted to cash in knowing that 99 points is probably the high water mark

Kadri deal seems a lot better to me, especially with the free acquisition cost

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Kadri is coming off an over 100 point pace, is an elite 2 way center, was a big part of the most recent cup Champs including an OT winner in the SCF and was a UFA.

Miller scored 99 points in meaningless games and wasn't a UFA yet

Apples/oranges

Miller obviously wanted to cash in knowing that 99 points is probably the high water mark

Kadri deal seems a lot better to me, especially with the free acquisition cost

Ummm, 1st+Monahan?

VAN also gets to exploit this year at 5.25M, just like we do with Huby.

Kadri deal is almost certain to end up buyout/negative value. Miller's is also likely to, though he'll be 36 until the last month of the last season (compared to Kadri turning 38 at the start of his final season), though he's got reasonable buyout protection until that last season.

Miller has missed about 12 reg season games in the last 7 seasons. Kadri has missed about 46 in that span (not including playoff suspensions/injuries)

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Ummm, 1st+Monahan?

VAN also gets to exploit this year at 5.25M, just like we do with Huby.

Kadri deal is almost certain to end up buyout/negative value. Miller's is also likely to, though he'll be 36 until the last month of the last season (compared to Kadri turning 38 at the start of his final season), though he's got reasonable buyout protection until that last season.

Miller has missed about 12 reg season games in the last 7 seasons. Kadri has missed about 46 in that span (not including playoff suspensions/injuries)

Since both contracts going to be end up in buy out, so, 36 and 38, 2 years not that much of a difference. Kadri's contract is buyout friendly, this is important.


Monahan and a 1st -- Without shredding his contract, Flames can't sign Kadri.according to most, Monahan has negative value. The 1st is an unknown. But signing Kadri has a good chance helping the team, losing Monahan doesn't hurt the team. Now looking at Miller, does signing him help his team this year or the next 2 or 3? IMHO, that's that the difference between the two contracts.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Kadri is coming off an over 100 point pace, is an elite 2 way center, was a big part of the most recent cup Champs including an OT winner in the SCF and was a UFA.

Miller scored 99 points in meaningless games and wasn't a UFA yet

Apples/oranges

Miller obviously wanted to cash in knowing that 99 points is probably the high water mark

Kadri deal seems a lot better to me, especially with the free acquisition cost

Personally, I'd rather have the Miller deal. Based on the last 3 seasons Miller has produced a lot more consistently than Kadri. Kadri had an absolutely amazing season where everything clicked, the same can be argued about Miller but he played at over a PPG pace in 2019-20 as well, in fact he is at over a PPG over the last 3 years combined. Now, I hope Kadri would be able to play at the same level as he did last year, but I have a hard time projecting more than 65 points.

I grant you that points aren't everything, however Miller seemed to hold his own and be one of Vancouver's best players in their playoff run. The defensive holes in Miller's game could be a result of the system or the D core Vancouver has, but I'm not enough of an expert to call it one way or another.

As for the acquisition cost, others have pointed out that freeing up the cap-space was anything but free. In addition, 4 years of Miller at $5.25M cost the Canucks Mazanec, a 1st(Mukhamadullin), and a 3rd(Alnefelt), which I would argue is a better deal than paying a 1st for 7 years of Kadri at $7M.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Ummm, 1st+Monahan?

VAN also gets to exploit this year at 5.25M, just like we do with Huby.

Kadri deal is almost certain to end up buyout/negative value. Miller's is also likely to, though he'll be 36 until the last month of the last season (compared to Kadri turning 38 at the start of his final season), though he's got reasonable buyout protection until that last season.

Miller has missed about 12 reg season games in the last 7 seasons. Kadri has missed about 46 in that span (not including playoff suspensions/injuries)

Monahan had negative value if the Flames signed Kadri or not they wanted to move it IMO. They were going to move him or Lucic to keep Gaudreau/Tkachuk or anything else they were planning.

Flames signed a UFA that was available to anyone in the league...Canucks signed a player that could only extend with them. Kadri contract is also less money and has no protection that prevents future flexibility.

These situations are not even really comparable, it's apples and oranges

Miller might have more points but he has also played a very different role. Kadri would have put up more points as the #1 center on an average at best team too vs. being behind Nate.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

They are going to have to make the playoffs at the expense of another team. There’s a few that could fall out as anything can happen. All the pressure is on Demko as few teams require their goaltender to steal as many wins. Average goaltending isn’t good enough behind their team defense. It could happen though. Oilers are a McDavid long term injury away from draft lottery status and the King are no slam dunk. Flames could take time to gel with all the key new players.

The Flames in my opinion are a tier above everyone else in the Pacific. I think there will be a tight battle between the Oilers, Canucks, Kings, Vegas, and Anaheim for spots 2 and 3.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

The Flames in my opinion are a tier above everyone else in the Pacific. I think there will be a tight battle between the Oilers, Canucks, Kings, Vegas, and Anaheim for spots 2 and 3.

agreed, with...Flames are deeper than all these teams. You would have to combine them to get a better defense than the Flames have. Every summer I hear about how great Canucks players are yet even with their goaltender standing on their head they are a bubble team at best.

Even their "playoff run" was 90% goaltending and they were trending to miss the playoffs until covid saved them. With Markstrom injured they were dropping like a stone in the standings.

[dissentowner]

I think my darkhorse team to make the playoffs in the West is the Ducks. If Gibson stays healthy, the additions to their blueline, and guys like Zegras, Drysdale, McTavish, and Terry taking another step they could be better than most think.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by midniteowl

Since both contracts going to be end up in buy out, so, 36 and 38, 2 years not that much of a difference. Kadri's contract is buyout friendly, this is important.


Monahan and a 1st -- Without shredding his contract, Flames can't sign Kadri.according to most, Monahan has negative value. The 1st is an unknown. But signing Kadri has a good chance helping the team, losing Monahan doesn't hurt the team. Now looking at Miller, does signing him help his team this year or the next 2 or 3? IMHO, that's that the difference between the two contracts.

Of course Miller helps in the short-term; although he has an NTC he could likely also fetch a good return in a few years if that's the way the winds blow. And there is a massive difference between 36 and 38:


50+ pt seasons: 57 (36) vs 19 (38)
30+ pt seasons: 149 vs 56
75+ gp: 130 vs 39
50+ gp: 316 vs 113

You're nearly three times more likely to be a relevant NHLer at 36 than at 38.


And of course Monahan had negative value in that trade...time will tell whether the juice was worth the squeeze. I don't think it's inconceivable that Monahan manages a 20+ goal pace and fetches a tidy return at the TDL; if Kadri has a mediocre season then it may look more regrettable.

Originally Posted by dino7c

Monahan had negative value if the Flames signed Kadri or not they wanted to move it IMO. They were going to move him or Lucic to keep Gaudreau/Tkachuk or anything else they were planning.

Flames signed a UFA that was available to anyone in the league...Canucks signed a player that could only extend with them. Kadri contract is also less money and has no protection that prevents future flexibility.

These situations are not even really comparable, it's apples and oranges

Miller might have more points but he has also played a very different role. Kadri would have put up more points as the #1 center on an average at best team too vs. being behind Nate.

Kadri's age 24/25 years his only competition at C was Bozak, but of course those teams sucked. The next year 3 big rookies joined the team...but they were still rookies.

Miller seized his opportunity at age 26 and has sustained that pace for 3 seasons.

It's definitely moot, but I struggle to see how Kadri's deal could possibly be considered better than Miller's.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Of course Miller helps in the short-term; although he has an NTC he could likely also fetch a good return in a few years if that's the way the winds blow. And there is a massive difference between 36 and 38:


50+ pt seasons: 57 (36) vs 19 (38)
30+ pt seasons: 149 vs 56
75+ gp: 130 vs 39
50+ gp: 316 vs 113

You're nearly three times more likely to be a relevant NHLer at 36 than at 38.


And of course Monahan had negative value in that trade...time will tell whether the juice was worth the squeeze. I don't think it's inconceivable that Monahan manages a 20+ goal pace and fetches a tidy return at the TDL; if Kadri has a mediocre season then it may look more regrettable.



Kadri's age 24/25 years his only competition at C was Bozak, but of course those teams sucked. The next year 3 big rookies joined the team...but they were still rookies.

Miller seized his opportunity at age 26 and has sustained that pace for 3 seasons.

It's definitely moot, but I struggle to see how Kadri's deal could possibly be considered better than Miller's.

Well you are trying really hard not to
less money for a player that was actually a UFA and has accomplished more in his career

Not sure how Kadri in Toronto is even relevant he is a totally different player now and hockey is not all about points anyway...I mean a year ago Mangiapane hadn't cracked 32 points, things change.

Compare their player cards 19% EV Defence for Miller and 75% for Kadri, I think I know who Sutter who rather have as his 2nd line center. Cue the Miller OT leisurely skate to the bench against the Flames after he lost the puck. Miller is a PP stats guy, those points still count don't get me wrong but it doesn't tell the whole story.

As for Monahan scoring 20+ and getting a return at the deadline, unlikely in Montreal but 100% wasn't happening here because he isn't good enough in his own zone to play those kinda minutes for a team that actually wants to win. Monahan had negative value to the Flames and that has nothing to do with Kadri.

I actually think they are both fair market deals, just this idea that JT Miller is some kinda steal and Kadri is a bad contract is WAAAY off base.

[FBI]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Kadri is coming off an over 100 point pace, is an elite 2 way center, was a big part of the most recent cup Champs including an OT winner in the SCF and was a UFA.

Miller scored 99 points in meaningless games and wasn't a UFA yet

Apples/oranges

Miller obviously wanted to cash in knowing that 99 points is probably the high water mark

Kadri deal seems a lot better to me, especially with the free acquisition cost

You know I’ve always thought the apples/oranges comparison meant two things that aren’t comparable. But wait apples and oranges are both fruits and kinda yummy. So maybe they are comparable?

[Dragomir]

Originally Posted by combustiblefuel

Ok... the team is definently suspect but the city itself is actually fairly good. Better than Edmonton and Calgary is a good city but it's no Vancouver.

I’d MUCH rather live in Alberta than in Vancouver and it’s not even close.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Well you are trying really hard not to
less money for a player that was actually a UFA and has accomplished more in his career

Not sure how Kadri in Toronto is even relevant he is a totally different player now and hockey is not all about points anyway...I mean a year ago Mangiapane hadn't cracked 32 points, things change.

Compare their player cards 19% EV Defence for Miller and 75% for Kadri, I think I know who Sutter who rather have as his 2nd line center. Cue the Miller OT leisurely skate to the bench against the Flames after he lost the puck. Miller is a PP stats guy, those points still count don't get me wrong but it doesn't tell the whole story.

As for Monahan scoring 20+ and getting a return at the deadline, unlikely in Montreal but 100% wasn't happening here because he isn't good enough in his own zone to play those kinda minutes for a team that actually wants to win. Monahan had negative value to the Flames and that has nothing to do with Kadri.

I actually think they are both fair market deals, just this idea that JT Miller is some kinda steal and Kadri is a bad contract is WAAAY off base.

I don't get the actually a UFA distinction...CGY had to spend assets to get the player (who had a career year as pending UFA). VAN didn't...they get an extra year of a player at 5.25 (who has three straight years of great production in non-contract years).

Age through their contracts is the key difference:

30.5-36.5
vs
32-38

Sure, you can buy out Kadri's last 2 years, but I'd rather have the entirety of a guy's early 30s and not have to rely on a buyout at all...

No argument on defence, though I'm not sure how well JFresh cards account for team quality...the gap may not be quite that dramatic.


I'm fine with the Flames move only because it lets the team work from day 1 of their best possible window, but it's still a plug your nose and do it move (when factoring the 1st)

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

I don't get the actually a UFA distinction...CGY had to spend assets to get the player (who had a career year as pending UFA). VAN didn't...they get an extra year of a player at 5.25 (who has three straight years of great production in non-contract years).

Age through their contracts is the key difference:

30.5-36.5
vs
32-38

Sure, you can buy out Kadri's last 2 years, but I'd rather have the entirety of a guy's early 30s and not have to rely on a buyout at all...

No argument on defence, though I'm not sure how well JFresh cards account for team quality...the gap may not be quite that dramatic.


I'm fine with the Flames move only because it lets the team work from day 1 of their best possible window, but it's still a plug your nose and do it move (when factoring the 1st)

The $5.25M this year is also irrelevant when comparing the contracts. As is having to move out salary to make room for him.

The contracts are 7x$7 and 7x$8. Kadri is a more complete player, Miller is probably a little better offensively, and Kadri is a little older. Pretty close comparison overall, but you two are doing gymnastics to try and justify your (fairly biased) positions.

[djsFlames]

Don't think the deals are worth comparing.

Kind of different situations for each player and team, as one was a UFA signing, and one was an extension to avoid trading/losing the player.

Kadri deal works for the Flames, their situation and what they're trying to accomplish. And so does the Miller deal for Vancouver.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The $5.25M this year is also irrelevant when comparing the contracts. As is having to move out salary to make room for him.

The contracts are 7x$7 and 7x$8. Kadri is a more complete player, Miller is probably a little better offensively, and Kadri is a little older. Pretty close comparison overall, but you two are doing gymnastics to try and justify your (fairly biased) positions.

Over the last 3 seasons Miller has 217 points to Kadri’s 155 that’s more than a little better offensively. Granted Kadri played less games, but in that case we need to take durability into consideration.

The contracts are comparable, but the Miller contract seems like lower risk higher reward to me.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Dragomir

I’d MUCH rather live in Alberta than in Vancouver and it’s not even close.

Good for you. Not me.

Sent from my SM-G986W using Tapatalk

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

Over the last 3 seasons Miller has 217 points to Kadri’s 155 that’s more than a little better offensively. Granted Kadri played less games, but in that case we need to take durability into consideration.

The contracts are comparable, but the Miller contract seems like lower risk higher reward to me.

1.07 PPG vs 0.87 over those 3 years. But prior to VAN, Miller wasn't putting up those kind of numbers, so how much of it is him becoming a better player or just getting more offensive opportunity?