[Poll Request] Monahan Off-Season Trade Value (or negative value)

[GioforPM]

No one is hanging their hopes on a rebound. Bingo just says he hopes he does. Who doesn’t? But the team is good either way.

And yes, given the options, he’s still on the roster if he’s a $1M player. YOu think Sutter is standing on sentiment?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

the Flames are on a 15-1-1 heater at home, 19-4-1 overall
they're first in the division, and second in the conference
11 up on EDM and 13 up on VGS
they are top 2 defensively and top 6 offensively
they just added Toffoli and Jarnkrok to an already dominant team

and all some people want to do is bang on the Monahan drum

This thread is clearly labelled and easy to avoid.

[madmike]

Monahan is fine for this season. The Flames shouldn't do anything with him.

In the offseason his salary obviously becomes an issue, given all the Flames FAs and it's inevitable he'll be traded or cut. It sucks because he looked to have such a promising future and seems like a great teammate. He'll almost certainly land on his feet somewhere, but at a fraction of the salary he used to make.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by madmike

Monahan is fine for this season. The Flames shouldn't do anything with him.

In the offseason his salary obviously becomes an issue, given all the Flames FAs and it's inevitable he'll be traded or cut. It sucks because he looked to have such a promising future and seems like a great teammate. He'll almost certainly land on his feet somewhere, but at a fraction of the salary he used to make.

Yup. Though I think he will make the same salary next year. I think he will be traded, not bought out. Though I haven’t done the numbers to see what retention beats a buyout.

[Vinny01]

I the ideal world Monahan is able to find his game again and if so I love the forward group. Monahan is a good player and if he plays with Mangiapane and Toffoli no one can say he is not playing with top players. If we had the same Monahan we used to have I would argue the Flames would have the best forward group in the league. I want a rejuvenated Monahan playing in this lineup

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk
Mangiapane-Monahan-Toffoli
Coleman-Backlund-Jarnkrok
Lucic-Dube-Lewis

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I the ideal world Monahan is able to find his game again and if so I love the forward group. Monahan is a good player and if he plays with Mangiapane and Toffoli no one can say he is not playing with top players. If we had the same Monahan we used to have I would argue the Flames would have the best forward group in the league. I want a rejuvenated Monahan playing in this lineup

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk
Mangiapane-Monahan-Toffoli
Coleman-Backlund-Jarnkrok
Lucic-Dube-Lewis

The game last night gave me hope for that line, but one game against the Devils is probably not indicative. Still, they got a nice goal from Mangiapane and could have had a couple more.

I like Lewis more than Ritchie on that bottom line. Smarter, and better positionally, and he’s shown flashes of offence.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

the Flames are on a 15-1-1 heater at home, 19-4-1 overall
they're first in the division, and second in the conference
11 up on EDM and 13 up on VGS
they are top 2 defensively and top 6 offensively
they just added Toffoli and Jarnkrok to an already dominant team

and all some people want to do is bang on the Monahan drum

Some people thrive on negativity. It's the only possible conclusion. Like little vampires of joy.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Any way you slice it, he’s one of the worst 2-3 forwards on the team defensively. And one of the last players you’d want on the ice defending a lead in the playoffs when the other team sends a dangerous line over the boards.

Be honest. Forget all about the name on the jersey and what he’s done in the past. If a journeymen on the roster was playing the way Monahan has the last 100 games, would you have any problem seeing him in the press box?

I'm always honest.

And no ... not any way you slice it ... there are pages upon pages slicing it many ways that don't show your conclusion.

The Flames forwards when it comes to five on five defensive play are in three groups.

The elite group; Brett Ritchie, Andrew Mangiapane, Matthew Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund. (2.06 to 2.15 xGA6)

The middle group; Backlund, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Coleman, Ruzicka, Guadreau, Monahan Lucic, Dube, Richardson (2.24 to 2.34)

The weaker group; Lewis, Toffoli and Pitlick (gone) (2.47 to 2.49).

His issue is finish, not defense.

And I'm happy to put him in the press box if they want to go with Ruzicka instead.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm always honest.

And no ... not any way you slice it ... there are pages upon pages slicing it many ways that don't show your conclusion.

The Flames forwards when it comes to five on five defensive play are in three groups.

The elite group; Brett Ritchie, Andrew Mangiapane, Matthew Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund. (2.06 to 2.15 xGA6)

The middle group; Backlund, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Coleman, Ruzicka, Guadreau, Monahan Lucic, Dube, Richardson (2.24 to 2.34)

The weaker group; Lewis, Toffoli and Pitlick (gone) (2.47 to 2.49).

His issue is finish, not defense.

And I'm happy to put him in the press box if they want to go with Ruzicka instead.

I'm curious, the stat are misleading in my view as Ritchie for example is not facing the top line forward as a player like Lindholm or Coleman

Same thing with Monahan, Lucic etc

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by flambers

I'm curious, the stat are misleading in my view as Ritchie for example is not facing the top line forward as a player like Lindholm or Coleman

Same thing with Monahan, Lucic etc

They don’t face off against the top line forward if Sutter has last change. But on the road they sure do and even outside of face offs other coaches can change their lines on the fly. Monahan’s line got scored on by Mercer from Hischier IIRC and against the Caps by Ovechkin. Sutter doesn’t hard match in that he doesn’t yank a line after a second if he sees the other side change. He matches on face offs but that’s it.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm always honest.

And no ... not any way you slice it ... there are pages upon pages slicing it many ways that don't show your conclusion.

The Flames forwards when it comes to five on five defensive play are in three groups.

The elite group; Brett Ritchie, Andrew Mangiapane, Matthew Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund. (2.06 to 2.15 xGA6)

The middle group; Backlund, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Coleman, Ruzicka, Guadreau, Monahan Lucic, Dube, Richardson (2.24 to 2.34)

The weaker group; Lewis, Toffoli and Pitlick (gone) (2.47 to 2.49).

His issue is finish, not defense.

And I'm happy to put him in the press box if they want to go with Ruzicka instead.

Where do you find xGA/60? I cant seem to find them.

It is easy to see Monny is 2nd worst in GA/60, but I cant find the advanced x60 to see how unlucky vs bad he has been.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Be honest. Forget all about the name on the jersey and what he’s done in the past. If a journeymen on the roster was playing the way Monahan has the last 100 games, would you have any problem seeing him in the press box?

I wouldn't have a problem with it per se, but I think it's a two sided coin where you also have to remove his AAV and any expectations based on past performance. In which case I like him at least as much as Lucic/Lewis/Ruzicka...I still prefer him to Dubé/Ritchie/Richardson. I definitely don't want to run with two of Ruzicka/Dubé/Richardson at C over him.

Does Jarnkrok change the equation? A little bit, but I'd be keeping him on the wing instead of Ritchie while he gets his sea-legs here, and probably long-term as a safety blanket for our sub-optimal 3/4Cs.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

I wouldn't have a problem with it per se, but I think it's a two sided coin where you also have to remove his AAV and any expectations based on past performance. In which case I like him at least as much as Lucic/Lewis/Ruzicka...I still prefer him to Dubé/Ritchie/Richardson. I definitely don't want to run with two of Ruzicka/Dubé/Richardson at C over him.

Does Jarnkrok change the equation? A little bit, but I'd be keeping him on the wing instead of Ritchie while he gets his sea-legs here, and probably long-term as a safety blanket for our sub-optimal 3/4Cs.

It's a bit of an odd hypothetical since the only journeymen centres are Lewis, Richardson and (I guess) Dube. And none of them are as good even now at the position as Monahan. He's better at faceoffs, still plays PP and he's better positionally than Dube and Richardson (Lewis hasn't played a shift at C here so I don't know about him). So ignoring his salary, yeah, he'd still be in the lineup using the present roster (including Ruzicka and Jarnkrok).

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm always honest.

And no ... not any way you slice it ... there are pages upon pages slicing it many ways that don't show your conclusion.

The Flames forwards when it comes to five on five defensive play are in three groups.

The elite group; Brett Ritchie, Andrew Mangiapane, Matthew Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund. (2.06 to 2.15 xGA6)

The middle group; Backlund, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Coleman, Ruzicka, Guadreau, Monahan Lucic, Dube, Richardson (2.24 to 2.34)

The weaker group; Lewis, Toffoli and Pitlick (gone) (2.47 to 2.49).

His issue is finish, not defense.

And I'm happy to put him in the press box if they want to go with Ruzicka instead.

IMHO that just shows the flaws in that statistical model. Do you really think Sutter regards Lewis as one of his weakest defensive forwards? I guarantee you he’s more confident sending Lewis or Toffoli over the boards to defend a lead than Dube, Ruzicka, or Monahan.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

IMHO that just shows the flaws in that statistical model. Do you really think Sutter regards Lewis as one of his weakest defensive forwards? I guarantee you he’s more confident sending Lewis or Toffoli over the boards to defend a lead than Dube, Ruzicka, or Monahan.

I'm honestly not a huge Lewis fan. I think he gets his body to the rights spots but has a lot of pucks blow up on his stick.

I think Sutter wants him in the lineup because of who he is as a person and what he's done (experience), and I have an inkling that him riding shot gun with Backlund and Coleman has as much to do with finding a place to hide Lewis as it does Lewis being the perfect third piece of a shut down trio.

But no ... when Lewis was on the fourth line he spent a lot of time in his own zone.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Where do you find xGA/60? I cant seem to find them.

It is easy to see Monny is 2nd worst in GA/60, but I cant find the advanced x60 to see how unlucky vs bad he has been.

Natural Stat Trick.

The majority of his gap is on the offensive side of the puck. He's on the ice for 0.8 goals/60 less than he should be. On the defensive side he's on the ice for 0.2 goals/60 more than he should be.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Eric Vail

Patrick Marleau scored 37 point in 2018-29. He had one more year remaining in his contract at $6.25 million. The Leafs traded a first and a seventh, receiving a sixth rounder back to get Carolina to take him away and buy him out.

Marleau was a +35 contract that did not receive cap relief with a buyout. He was also refusing to play anywhere but San Jose (or Toronto), had a signing bonus and a NMC. Toronto also needed to move him to sign Marner (and less important players).

In order to agree to the trade, Marleau needed confirmation from the team that they would buy him out so he was able to sign in San Jose. That meant the Leafs were not only looking for a team that had enough cap space to take on 6M+ in 100% dead cap, but also actual cash to afford the 3M signing bonus and nearly 1M in salary (spread out over two years). Normally a team that is willing to take on 4M in actual cash is also looking to compete and a 6M dead cap space is counter intuitive to that. Inversely normally a team that is willing to take on 6M+ in dead cap is normally a team not looking to spend a lot of money, or in some cases looking to take on the dead cap to avoid spending even to the floor. The Leafs had their hands tied by Carolina and what, if any, other teams willing to buyout Marleau.

Had Marleau not had the NMC, a team like Arizona would have gladly taken him on after the Leafs paid his signing bonus, take the 6M+ cap hit to reach the floor, and get whatever "free" asset they could from the Leafs. Very much like they did with Datsyuk taking on his cap (but not his salary as he left the league). The value there was relatively quite small as they moved the 20th and 53th pick for Datsyuk and the 16th (though they got Chychrun with that pick) and some salary relief from the Vitale contract. For comparison, the Flames traded the 14th to Buffalo for the 21st and 42nd in 2012, so the 16th for the 20th and 53rd would hardly have been a crazy trade alone, Datsyuk was dumped nearly for free.

In fact it's rumoured that Arizona is looking at Weber for nearly the same purpose (LTIR vs 35+ contract).

There's just really no comparison with the relatively unique situation that Marleau was in.

[keeper34]

Monny is the Flames next Stajan

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by keeper34

Monny is the Flames next Stajan

So series winning goal is what you're saying?

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Bingo

No one is debating the fact that he has a poor plus minus, or that he has been on the ice for x goals against.

No one.

But there are deeper ways to look into a player than plus/minus, and those deeper ways suggest he's had a similar season to most of the forwards defensively, and just hasn't gotten the offence to balance out the plus/minus.

Kind of pointless to keep going in circles on this one.

He's not the player he was.
He hasn't been able to provide offence (lack of finish)
Hopefully he rebounds.
He's not a black hole defensively.

Never said he was. My point is very simple, he’s on the ice for too many goals against at 5 on 5 especially if you’re not scoring either, then you become a liability if all you’re doing is giving up goals while not producing or in other words goal differential i.e. +/-

This is not a +/- vs analytics which seems to the direction people want to turn this debate into. I’m not here for that. It’s simply goals in and goals out for me, if Monahan had half the goals allowed at 5 on 5 and had a positive differential, I wouldn’t even be in this thread as I had already anticipated the colossal drop off in offense since the offseason.

Also, I agree with you, this is going around in circles and it’s a waste of time. I’ll definitely never see eye to eye with some posters about #23, so as I said earlier to those, we’ll have to agree to disagree.