Sutter re: recalling prospects

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

2 games and 26 minutes in the pre-season the last three seasons (1 game in 19-20, no games in 20-21, 1 game in 21-22)

1 game and 11 minutes in the regular season the last three seasons, and he was really good in that game he played.

And countless practice sessions both during pre season and during regular season.

Most coaches/GM's place a heavy emphasis on who can/will play well during games by how well a guy performs in practice.

Im guessing BT/DS have seen plenty of what they need in regards to a guy like Philips and determined he doesnt fill a specific role on this club with how he has done in those situations. Is part of that because of his size? Of course it is. That doesn't change what they believe though, and certainly not the only reason.

Disagree with that if you wish but its pretty much SOP around the league.

[Mindtravellee]

I wonder if training over summer with all the players that remain in Calgary will have any benefit of him adjusting

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I keep seeing 140-150 pounds being listed but the AHL site has had him at 160-165 lbs the past two years.

He’s was even already listed at 150 pounds when he was drafted by the team in 2016, so not sure how he suddenly became 140 lbs.

By the end of this thread he's going to be 130 lbs I think.

https://www.nhl.com/flames/news/flam...-pick/c-887358

I was going by the 140 on db and the 150 mentioned here. But even 160-65 is light. A lot of the small guys that have success are fireplugs. And a lot are the super speedy guys that do most of their work open ice.

[TheScorpion]

Phillips most recently clocked in at 5'8", 165 prior to the season.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Just for fun I wanted to look at similar performing AHL players and the opportunities they've had.

Over the last three seasons (19/20 to 21/22) here are the PPG scoring leaders in the AHL for U-25 players that have played at least 40 AHL games, and scored over .825 PPG.

Drake Batherson: 1.227 - 93 NHL Games
Josh Norris: 1.089 - 87 NHL Games
Alex Barre-Boulet: 0.974 - 31 NHL Games
Lane Pederson: 0.962 - 35 NHL Games
Logan Brown: 0.947 - 39 NHL Games
Noah Gregor: 0.930 - 79 NHL Games
Riley Damiani: 0.915 - 1 NHL Game
Justin Bailey: 0.887 - 15 NHL Games
Jack Dugan: 0.875 - 0 NHL Games
Owen Tippett: 0.870 - 78 NHL Games
Thomas Novak: 0.868 - 27 NHL Games
Tyler Benson: 0.867 - 24 NHL Games
Matthew Phillips: 0.863 - 1 NHL Games
Taro Hirose: 0.859 -33 NHL Games
Janne Kuokkanen: 0.857 - 85 NHL Games
Gabriel Vilardi: 0.848 - 71 NHL Games
Michael Bunting: 0.845 - 61 NHL Games
Julien Gauthier: 0.841 - 71 NHL Games
Cole Perfetti: 0.837 - 3 NHL Games
Glenn Gawdin: 0.835 - 9 NHL Games
Morgan Geekie: 0.825 - 72 NHL Games Played

There is a longer list of guys if I included guys that only played 20-30 AHL games but most of them are NHLers now, which is why they played so few AHL games.

The only guys that have played fewer than 10 NHL games with that type of point production in the AHL playing 40 or more AHL games.

Riley Damiani: 1 Game - 21 years old - 60 AHL Games
Jack Dugan: 0 Games - 23 years old - 48 AHL Games
Matthew Phillips: 1 Game - 23 years old - 161 AHL Games
Cole Perfetti: 3 Games - 20 years old - 49 AHL Games
Glenn Gawdin: 9 Games - 24 years old - 167 AHL Games Played

But yeah he's had ample NHL opportunities to make an impression.

This is very inteinteresting thanks for putting this together.


I would be curious to know the difference in primary PK duties based on this list.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Just for fun I wanted to look at similar performing AHL players and the opportunities they've had.

Over the last three seasons (19/20 to 21/22) here are the PPG scoring leaders in the AHL for U-25 players that have played at least 40 AHL games, and scored over .825 PPG.

Drake Batherson: 1.227 - 93 NHL Games
Josh Norris: 1.089 - 87 NHL Games
Alex Barre-Boulet: 0.974 - 31 NHL Games
Lane Pederson: 0.962 - 35 NHL Games
Logan Brown: 0.947 - 39 NHL Games
Noah Gregor: 0.930 - 79 NHL Games
Riley Damiani: 0.915 - 1 NHL Game
Justin Bailey: 0.887 - 15 NHL Games
Jack Dugan: 0.875 - 0 NHL Games
Owen Tippett: 0.870 - 78 NHL Games
Thomas Novak: 0.868 - 27 NHL Games
Tyler Benson: 0.867 - 24 NHL Games
Matthew Phillips: 0.863 - 1 NHL Games
Taro Hirose: 0.859 -33 NHL Games
Janne Kuokkanen: 0.857 - 85 NHL Games
Gabriel Vilardi: 0.848 - 71 NHL Games
Michael Bunting: 0.845 - 61 NHL Games
Julien Gauthier: 0.841 - 71 NHL Games
Cole Perfetti: 0.837 - 3 NHL Games
Glenn Gawdin: 0.835 - 9 NHL Games
Morgan Geekie: 0.825 - 72 NHL Games Played

There is a longer list of guys if I included guys that only played 20-30 AHL games but most of them are NHLers now, which is why they played so few AHL games.

The only guys that have played fewer than 10 NHL games with that type of point production in the AHL playing 40 or more AHL games.

Riley Damiani: 1 Game - 21 years old - 60 AHL Games
Jack Dugan: 0 Games - 23 years old - 48 AHL Games
Matthew Phillips: 1 Game - 23 years old - 161 AHL Games
Cole Perfetti: 3 Games - 20 years old - 49 AHL Games
Glenn Gawdin: 9 Games - 24 years old - 167 AHL Games Played

But yeah he's had ample NHL opportunities to make an impression.

Your answer may be somewhere in this data.

Drake Batherson: 6'3, 204
Josh Norris: 6'1, 201
Alex Barre-Boulet: 5'10, 180
Lane Pederson: 6'0, 190
Logan Brown: 6'6, 218
Noah Gregor: 6'0, 185
Riley Damiani: 5'10, 170
Justin Bailey: 6'4, 214
Jack Dugan: 6'2, 185
Owen Tippett: 6'1, 207
Thomas Novak: 6'1, 191
Tyler Benson: 6'0, 190
Matthew Phillips: 5'7, 140
Taro Hirose: 5'10, 162
Janne Kuokkanen: 6'1, 193
Gabriel Vilardi: 6'3, 201
Michael Bunting: 6'0, 186
Julien Gauthier: 6'4, 227
Cole Perfetti: 5'11, 177
Glenn Gawdin: 6'1, 191
Morgan Geekie: 6'3, 192

Other than Phillips, players under 5'10: Zero. Players under 170 pounds: One. Size matters.

*All heights and weights from hockeydb.com, so do your complaining about listed sizes there.

[SuperMatt18]

Size can matter...but lots of NHLers have proven that size doesn't have to matter.

And really that's not even the point because even then, it's not like it would be the end of the world to give the guy 5 NHL games to at least validate "Yup he's too small".

Over the last three seasons the Flames have dressed the following below replacement level forwards that they signed as FAs / traded for that weren't drafted by the team to be a warm body on the roster:

Tobias Rieder, Joakim Nordstrom, Brett Ritchie, Josh Leivo, Trevor Lewis, Tyler Pitlick, Zac Rinaldo, Brad Richardson, Buddy Robinson, Dominik Simon, Alan Quine, Austin Czarnik, & Byron Froese

Those 13 players have combined to play 331 games over the last three seasons.

In those 331 games they have put up a whopping 28 goals, and 58 points, or a combined 0.08 goals per game & 0.17 points per game. Can't risk putting a young guy in the lineup with production like that.

At even strength those players combined to be -30 in their time on the ice, with a combined on ice xGF% OF 46.8%. Needed those reliable veterans that aren't liabilities on the ice though.

It's not like the Flames have iced a bottom 6 that has been elite over these past three seasons, most of the time they already are a liability.

If we are going to have a liability on the ice I'd much rather it be a 23 year old that at least might have a sliver of a chance of being able to be a contributor at the next level, instead of just a warm body that has already proven they are nothing more than below replacement level.

And yes it's rare to be an NHLer at 165 pounds but it's not unheard of. Gaudreau, Ennis, Byron, Debrincat, Garland,Yamamoto, Farabee, Frost, Caufield are all around 165 right now and have survived the NHL just fine.

Just give the guy 5 games, it's not going to crater the team any more than the below replacement level players already are. But I guess at least Pitlick, Ritchie, and Richardson are big, so need to keep rolling them out there every night.

[TheScorpion]

I really have a hard time believing that Matthew Phillips would be worse than some of the forwards on this team.

[SuperMatt18]

To top off on my previous post.



Here are the 13 veterans the Flames have brought in to fill the lineup last 3 seasons.

Czarnik and Nordstrom are the only 2 that provided any type of positive impact.

The rest were all negative impact.

But we can’t find a couple of games to give Phillips a look to just make sure he’s actually too small before we get rid of him.

[Mass_nerder]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I really have a hard time believing that Matthew Phillips would be worse than some of the forwards on this team.

I don't think he has what it takes, but considering the forwards we're currently icing, it's worth the shot. As you say, I can't really see him being any worse.
We're at the point in the season where Tre either needs to make a significant trade for a top 6 guy, or start looking to the farm and hoping for a miracle.

[Karl]

Ritchie & Pitlick stink. They deserve to hit waivers.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

To top off on my previous post.



Here are the 13 veterans the Flames have brought in to fill the lineup last 3 seasons.

Czarnik and Nordstrom are the only 2 that provided any type of positive impact.

The rest were all negative impact.

But we can’t find a couple of games to give Phillips a look to just make sure he’s actually too small before we get rid of him.

Wow. Czarnik and Nordstrom had positive impacts?!?

Wouldn’t have guessed

Also surprised someone ranked lower than Ritchie

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Wow. Czarnik and Nordstrom had positive impacts?!?

Wouldn’t have guessed

Also surprised someone ranked lower than Ritchie

Ritchie will get there. Lots of time left in this season. That has to be one of the worst list of filler players in the league. You would expect to occasionally hit on one of those guys.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

To top off on my previous post.



Here are the 13 veterans the Flames have brought in to fill the lineup last 3 seasons.

Czarnik and Nordstrom are the only 2 that provided any type of positive impact.

The rest were all negative impact.

But we can’t find a couple of games to give Phillips a look to just make sure he’s actually too small before we get rid of him.

In all fairness they broke camp with Gawdin, and have given Ruzicka a spin a few times.

It's not like they won't try on an AHL player.

They haven't brought up Phillips yet, maybe they won't, but that's a singular evaluation of a player, and not a refusal to bring anyone up.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

In all fairness they broke camp with Gawdin, and have given Ruzicka a spin a few times.

It's not like they won't try on an AHL player.

They haven't brought up Phillips yet, maybe they won't, but that's a singular evaluation of a player, and not a refusal to bring anyone up.

I don’t know if I agree. Treliving has seemed to really have a change of strategy with prospects here since the start of the 19-20 season.

Prior to that season he allowed open spots on the roster to allow guys like Mangiapane, Jooris, Hathaway, Anderson, Kylington, Valimaki, Kulak, Jankowski, Dube, have more of a shot to make the roster and get some NHL experience.

We were still “re-building” at that point so it came with the territory, but it was refreshing to see more opportunities for young players, even if they didn’t have high draft pedigree.

Even in 18-19 though young guys got a lot of ice time. Mangiapane - 44 Games, Kylington: 38, Andersson: 79, Dube: 25, Valimaki: 24

Sure those guys were more highly touted prospects, but giving the young guys an open spot on the roster to be able to get NHL time was a strategy that was working for the team.

But I feel like since 19-20 though he’s really been more hesitant to give a rookie a spot and is deferring too veterans.

Gawdin: 9 Games
Ruzicka: 8 Games
Mackey: 6 Games
Phillips: 1 Game
Pelletier: 0 Games

Over the last 3 seasons only 4 Flames prospects have made their NHL debuts, and they played a combined 21 Games.

And even guys like Valimaki and Kylington seemed to get more trust in 18-19 than they have in recent seasons (up until Kylington forcing his way into the top 4 this year).

[Bingo]

So what's the assumption then?

They have players they know can help but they won't use them?
They have players they think can help down the road but don't want to rush them?
They don't feel the players in the system are better than what they have?

This isn't to you specifically, but I've literally seen this every year I've had a website. Fans want the young guys up, but sometimes they're just not good enough to be up. Gawdin looked behind the play in processing speed, Ruzicka doesn't play with pace. I'm all for giving Phillips a look, he's a great story.

But I don't get the feeling that anyone in the system is being held back at this point.

I keep bringing it up, but people on Calgarypuck were convinced Sutter was out to lunch when he wasn't bringing Dustin Boyd up a dozen years ago. He went on to do very little.

[bzoo02]

I feel like Phillips and Pelletier will get their shot if someone like Johnny/Mangiapane/Dube gets injured.
I really doubt they'd bring them up to play 3/4 line roles, that's not their game nor should it be.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

So what's the assumption then?

They have players they know can help but they won't use them?
They have players they think can help down the road but don't want to rush them?
They don't feel the players in the system are better than what they have?

This isn't to you specifically, but I've literally seen this every year I've had a website. Fans want the young guys up, but sometimes they're just not good enough to be up. Gawdin looked behind the play in processing speed, Ruzicka doesn't play with pace. I'm all for giving Phillips a look, he's a great story.

But I don't get the feeling that anyone in the system is being held back at this point.

I keep bringing it up, but people on Calgarypuck were convinced Sutter was out to lunch when he wasn't bringing Dustin Boyd up a dozen years ago. He went on to do very little.

I'm not sure these guys are the answer either to be honest.

I just think the last two years they have been blocked by guys like Leivo, Nordstrom, Simon, Richardson, Pitlick, Ritchie who also aren't the answer.

And if we are going to be dressing players that are below replacement level I'd rather it be a player that was young that maybe has upside, vs a player that is just a warm body that we know doesn't have any upside.

No-Upside Veterans vs Unknown Rookie is the dilemma, and I'd rather roll with unknown rookies in this scenario. The safe move is to play the veterans here, but honestly I don't think any NHL team has ever had much success by playing it safe.

If it doesn't work guys like Richardson or Ritchie tend to be floating around waivers all season long anyways.

And for your example...Dustin Boyd got 192 NHL games with the Flames to prove that he was an AHL tweener. I'm just saying that these guys need some games to prove it one way or another. Michael Bunting was a guy that was a "NHL-Tweener" too. Now he finally got a real shot at 25 years old and has 36 points in 61 NHL games.

Sometimes you don't know for sure until you actually play the guy at the NHL level and give him 5-10 games to actually adjust and acclimatize to the increased pace at the NHL level.

Giving guys like Gawdin or Ruzickia 2 games at a time and then going "You can't adjust to the pace" isn't really giving them a shot. Even top end elite players take time to adjust when getting their first taste of the NHL game.

Sometimes I think about this team has talked about how they were a game away from sending down Gaudreau in his rookie season when he was pointless with 1 SOG in his first 5 games in the 14-15 season and didn't look good at all. How different does that 14-15 season look if they send down Gaudreau before that game against the Jets and he doesn't get 64 points that season.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

To top off on my previous post.



Here are the 13 veterans the Flames have brought in to fill the lineup last 3 seasons.

Czarnik and Nordstrom are the only 2 that provided any type of positive impact.

The rest were all negative impact.

But we can’t find a couple of games to give Phillips a look to just make sure he’s actually too small before we get rid of him.

Czarnik is actually a decent comp for Phillips and the Flames were actually the team that decided to give him a shot oddly.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Czarnik is actually a decent comp for Phillips and the Flames were actually the team that decided to give him a shot oddly.

The "re-building Flames" 14-15 to 18-19 were way more willing to give rookies, and younger players a shot on the roster. More smaller players got a shot too.

The "???? Flames" from 19-20 to 21-22 have really started to default to giving any open roster spot to veterans. Size has become more of a priority in these seasons as well.

IMO the Flames really mis-read what happened in that 18-19 playoff season to Colorado.

The takeaway they had coming out of that series (and Treliving has said this publically) was that they needed to add more veterans, be bigger, and harder to play against.

Somehow they came out of that series thinking the problem was they were pushed around, when really the problem was that Colorado was the much, much faster team, and with the addition of Makar were the more skilled team.

And they outskated and outskilled the Flames in that series, especially the top guys.