Preferred Playoff Opponent *NEW POLL! (Updated 29 March)

[topfiverecords]

Calgary > Vegas > St. Louis
or
Nashville > St. Louis > Calgary

I think Dallas would prefer the former.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

Colorado is the hottest team going into the playoffs and getting ridiculous goaltending.

Looking at their recent schedule (March and April), it has been relatively soft. Paper Tigers.

[Flamenspiel]

^Yes, not sure there is an easy opponent for the Flames, both teams will be a tough out.

[Jiggy_12]

Even if we play Dallas, we should win.

But we should win quicker and less painfully against Colorado, and that's why I still prefer them.

No matter how much we think we should win, our absolute best odds are still likely somewhere in the 60-65% range, so nothing is a given.

[Duffalufagus]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

^Yes, not sure there is an easy opponent for the Flames, both teams will be a tough out.

I agree. there is no easy matchup.

[Ozy_Flame]

I am nervous about Dallas. We do not perform well against this team.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

Colorado is the hottest team going into the playoffs and getting ridiculous goaltending.

Last year Anaheim was the hottest team heading into the playoffs and they were bounced in four straight games.

[EldrickOnIce]

McCurdy (@ineffectivemath) has the Avs favored over the Flames 51% to 49, same as the Leafs over the Bruins, but probably for different reasons.

I am always really interested in it, but definitely do not understand modeling much.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Last year Anaheim was the hottest team heading into the playoffs and they were bounced in four straight games.

Yeah in other sports, like football, there is correlation between going in hot and success post season.
In hockey there isn't.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

McCurdy (@ineffectivemath) has the Avs favored over the Flames 51% to 49, same as the Leafs over the Bruins, but probably for different reasons.

I am always really interested in it, but definitely do not understand modeling much.

It's actually Col 51%, Cgy 46%, and Dal 3%. Looking at his chart I think the skewing of the numbers has something to do with the jockeying for position between the wildcard teams. He has also picked Colorado over Calgary on the basis of goaltending.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Yeah in other sports, like football, there is correlation between going in hot and success post season.
In hockey there isn't.

Sometimes you could even argue that teams at the bottom burn themselves out just trying to make it in and don't have as much left in the tank for the second season.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

McCurdy (@ineffectivemath) has the Avs favored over the Flames 51% to 49, same as the Leafs over the Bruins, but probably for different reasons.

I am always really interested in it, but definitely do not understand modeling much.

Anyone know somewhere I could get an even money bet on Flames over Colorado? I'm not typically much of a gambler, but imo Colorado isn't anywhere close to the favorite there. I'd be curious to know if the guy doing that math will put money on Colorado...

[Textcritic]

Last year in the first round seven of the eight higher seeds won their series. The only outlier was SJ over Anaheim, and these two teams were separated by one point, and had identical ROWs. All four Division champions advanced to the second round.

In the last five years there have been 14 first-round upsets in which the lower seed has won in 40 playoff series. Six of those have been by wildcard teams. Four of those wins have come from teams that were separated by less than ten points, while the two outliers—Minnesota over Colorado in 2014, and Nashville over Chicago in 2017—were over Division winners with +14 and +15 point leads respectively. The Nashville 2017 first round win probably stands as one of the greatest upsets in hockey history, and that team went on to play in the Stanley Cup Finals. If you will recall the Colorado Avalanche in 2014 won their Division on the back of some remarkable unsustainable performances, and were widely regarded as a potential first round upset that year heading into the playoffs. Even that series went seven games; four of which were decided in overtime.

The Flames will face an opponent in the first round who at best will finish the year 15 points behind them. If they somehow lose this series it will go along with the 2017 Nashville upset as one of the biggest in the sport. The fact of the matter is that it is unlikely to happen.

[Strange Brew]

Get ready for some playoff excitement. I expect that no mater who the Flames play, round 1 will be a long series with some drama.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

It's actually Col 51%, Cgy 46%, and Dal 3%. Looking at his chart I think the skewing of the numbers has something to do with the jockeying for position between the wildcard teams. He has also picked Colorado over Calgary on the basis of goaltending.

I'm not sure I'm reading his work properly but looks like on the math side its likely goaltending or similar skewing it but has Dallas as the favorite (albeit marginally) in the conference?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by looooob

I'm not sure I'm reading his work properly but looks like on the math side its likely goaltending or similar skewing it but has Dallas as the favorite (albeit marginally) in the conference?

It looks that way. He has Dallas as a 52% favourite to win Round One, with Winnipeg @ 22%, Nashville @ 18% and St Louis @ 8%. That's pretty crazy.

[tkflames]

A long winning streak is often followed by a losing streak...if that happens here (and we do in fact match with Colorado) it could be a short series. Grubauer also has demons from last year so a good first period in game 1 could turn the entire series.

[CaptainYooh]

Hrudey and Francis were both saying two days ago (!) that probability of Calgary playing Colorado is 96%. Today, Colorado is only one point behind Dallas. If they win their last game and Dallas loses two of theirs, Calgary will have to play Dallas. Wow, either Hrudey and Francis have no clue or those probabilities were pulled out of someone's a$$ in a hurry...

[Jiggy_12]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Hrudey and Francis were both saying two days ago (!) that probability of Calgary playing Colorado is 96%. Today, Colorado is only one point behind Dallas. If they win their last game and Dallas loses two of theirs, Calgary will have to play Dallas. Wow, either Hrudey and Francis have no clue or those probabilities were pulled out of someone's a$$ in a hurry...

If you take a 50/50 approach - 4 consecutive outcomes would have to go one particular way for us to end up not playing colorado.

.50 x .50 x .50 x .50 = 0.0625, in other words a 93.75% chance.

When you take in to account the fact that only a single point lost by colorado, or a single point gained by Dallas would also lock in the outcome - yes, 96% was completely accurate.

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Hrudey and Francis were both saying two days ago (!) that probability of Calgary playing Colorado is 96%. Today, Colorado is only one point behind Dallas. If they win their last game and Dallas loses two of theirs, Calgary will have to play Dallas. Wow, either Hrudey and Francis have no clue or those probabilities were pulled out of someone's a$$ in a hurry...

Those are still horrible odds for Colorado....
Dallas wins game 1,wins game 2
Dallas wins game 1, loses game 2
Dallas loses game 1, wins game 2
Dallas loses game 1, loses game 2 on OT or SO
Dallas loses game 1 in OT, loses game 2 in OT
Dallas loses game in OT, loses game 2

All of the above can be written out for Colorado winning or losing their game, wins or losses in OT and wins or losses in a SO.

The only way Colorado gets in is in one scenario, whereas Dallas has every other scenario for losing. I dont know if the percentage is 96% of Dallas finishing higher, but its definitely higher than 66%.