Pronman: Flames with the 29th ranked farm system

[SeanCharles]

I don't care what anyone has to say about our prospect pool; I have a strong feeling about Andersson, Valimaki and Dube making the NHL.

I think if Kylington and Mangiapane overcome their size disadvantage they could take their game to the next level also.

Kylington, in particular, has the tools that could allow him to really thrive if he can put it all together. He can fly around the ice the way Brodie and Hanifin can but may have more of an offensive upside. Last season he managed to finish tied for 15th in scoring, 10th in primary points, first in 5v5 points, and second in 5v5 primary points among all AHL defencemen.1.

Even though it was his 3rd year in the league and he was probably only as high as the #3 dman on the team he still put up the numbers and did so as one of the youngest guys in the league. In fact he finished in the top 25 players (forward or defence) for age adjusted NHLe at 21st respectively. Of note Mangiapane was 7th and Czarnik was 26th on the list.2.

I think this is part of the reasoning behind Pronman being so high on Kylington as he has some NHL calibre skills.

However, I think he is underselling Valimaki big time as he seemed to get better last year as the games went on. He played absolutely dominant in the playoffs, especially in big games, before getting knocked out mostly due to a dominant Carter Hart performance in net. His team swept the first two rounds and in the 3rd round he scored the majority of his 17 points out of 12 games (game 2: 3A in 5-3W, game 3: 1G,1A in 8-4L, game 4: 1A in 3-1L, game 5: 2G in 5-2W, game 6: 4A in 5-4L for 12 points).

In general if his bias is towards higher end forward prospects I can see why the Flames are overlooked as Dube, Mangiapane and Foo don't project to be top end players.

In regards to the debate about the past vs present state of our prospect pool: I think the big difference between now compared to back in the day when some were excited over prospects like Nemiez, Pelech and Wahl is we actually now do have a strong focus on drafting a developing. Under Sutter draft picks, specifically 2nds, were mostly used as currency to aquire veterans and our firsts were used to mostly pick big, strong western hockey league guys.

Button had to make hay with later round picks and it wasn't until Sutter gave Button more free range that a guy like Backlund was picked in the first round.

Nowadays we have a lot more invested in scouting and developing these guys.

I think they have done a good job at finding some solid 2nd rd picks in Andersson, Kylington and Dube and Valimaki looks like a safe bet to make it.

Times have changed in that we actually have a few good prospects and I think we are particularly strong on the backend in that regard. Our forward group already has Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Bennett and Jankowski as top 9 players so things are looking pretty solid for the future - just hope goalie voodoo works in our favor on Parsons or Gillies and we will be set.

1.https://flamesnation.ca/2018/05/16/f...ver-kylington/
2.https://www.reddit.com/r/CalgaryFlam..._age_adjusted/

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

...Button had to make hay with later round picks and it wasn't until Sutter gave Button more free range that a guy like Backlund was picked in the first round...

This is the first I have heard this with regard to Backlund’s selection.

[VilleN]

I think it makes perfect sense that the Flames farm system is ranked so low. Had we not traded away our picks for Hamonic I guarantee we’d be ranked quite a bit higher. Factor in the picks we traded away for Hamilton and Lazar, the recent top picks that have been graduated... it would be odd if our farm system was ranked higher.

I like most of the moves Tre has made, but a team that has traded away as many picks as the Flames have in recent years can’t logically have a top rated farm system.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by VilleN

I think it makes perfect sense that the Flames farm system is ranked so low. Had we not traded away our picks for Hamonic I guarantee we’d be ranked quite a bit higher. Factor in the picks we traded away for Hamilton and Lazar, the recent top picks that have been graduated... it would be odd if our farm system was ranked higher.

I like most of the moves Tre has made, but a team that has traded away as many picks as the Flames have in recent years can’t logically have a top rated farm system.

Of course not, and I don’t think anyone is challenging Pronman’s overall ranking. Most of the discussion in this thread has focused on his assessments of individual players—a few of which do appear puzzling.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

No, it isn't really a given. For instance:



To know how much bias there is for a given person, and in which direction, you'd have to see their assessments of other teams' prospects and compare them. Just to say somebody must be a homer because he thought his team's prospects had upside? That's out of line.

Let's not assume too much.

No one is saying you’re a homer because you believe a prospect has upside. But you are trying to argue that fans of a team are totally objective in assessing their own prospects? I don’t need a fan to do an analysis of other teams prospects. It’s precisely because they know so much more about their own team that a bias will inevitably exist.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Well, it's an example. I picked Text because I think most people wouldn't confuse him with an outlier like ricardo. He has pretty mainstream, board representative opinions in regards to players in the organisation. When I did a search he definitely was not the only poster holding similar views. Short of going back in time and conducting a poll asking who thinks Pelech will be a top pairing guy, I don't think I'll be able to satisfy your criteria. I found posts putting Pelech next to Bouwmeester on the top pairing, Pelech as a replacement for Sarich, etc, etc.

When you list a bunch of players as having top of the roster potential and all but one or two end up playing even a handful of games, maybe that's an indication of something.

People on this board in this thread are disagreeing with the Flames ranking. Olling is pointing out that of course a fan message board, any fan message board, is going to have a more favourable view of their prospects. not trying to embarrass anyone, pointing out that he too is/has been guilty of it. The point isn't that some people missed the mark on calling him a top pairing guy when he's really a 4/5, it's that the mark was missed to the extent he never got more than a cup of coffee in the bigs, and the rest of his cohort didn't even get that. Again, maybe that's indicative of something.

I'm chiming in, not to embarrass anyone, but to point out that I think he is accurate. To be more realistic about the state of the org we all might benefit from outside perspective and not necessarily assuming our familiarity with these players makes us any more accurate in our assessments because we are idiot fans.

Olling is saying Spencer might end up being something, but if the standard is AHL points, then he doesn't compare very favourably with a long list of players that never really amounted to anything in the org. Bingo doesn't seem to want to accept that lack of optimism. While i'm high on Foo as well as an NHL body, I have to admit I am sceptical as well. Same goes for Mangiapane and Dube.

The most interesting thing in the Pronman analysis is Kylington. I have vacillated between very impressed and very unimpressed at various points since he was drafted. Fox was my favourite prospect until he was traded, but now I'm all in on the Kylington train. Toot Toot.

I'm pretty much good with this whole post save the bold part.

I agree that fans will always be more optimistic about their prospects than an objective source or fans of other teams.

But the bolded part isn't quite right. I'm fine with people having a gloomy view, or a more gloomy view than others, though I'll be quick to defend the more optimistic from being attacked by those that want to stamp it out. I just pointed out that there's a difference between what Nemisz, Wahl and Howse vs Mangiapane, Dube and Foo because of what they've done so far in their careers.

Olli pointed out that Foo was older and I countered with a second half split that could mean more but agreed you could take Foo out.

None of that old group got anything done at the AHL level.

That's pretty much it.

[CliffFletcher]

Being optimistic or a passionate homer isn't a problem on this forum. It's pretty rare to see anyone take flak over it.

What's more commonly a problem is when the relentlessly optimistic call out those who are more skeptical, and say they're objectively wrong, they're idiots, they must be trolling, etc. I hope some of those who have been shown to have over-optimistic takes in the past keep that in mind going forward, and consider that the people being more cautious aren't malicious morons. You don't have to agree with their takes, but you shouldn't crap all over them either.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Being optimistic or a passionate homer isn't a problem on this forum. It's pretty rare to see anyone take flak over it.

What's more commonly a problem is when the relentlessly optimistic call out those who are more skeptical, and say they're objectively wrong, they're idiots, they must be trolling, etc. I hope some of those who have been shown to have over-optimistic takes in the past keep that in mind going forward, and consider that the people being more cautious aren't malicious morons. You don't have to agree with their takes, but you shouldn't crap all over them either.

That goes both ways though.

There's a group that does their very best to stamp out optimism as well.

And I see those that have optimistic takes hammered all the time. I think it comes down to where you sit on the spectrum. If you are pessimistic in nature you will generally call yourself a realist and therefore see optimism as radical. Not always the case.

[Beninho]

We definitely are no.1 in prospect names tho

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That goes both ways though.

There's a group that does their very best to stamp out optimism as well.

And I see those that have optimistic takes hammered all the time. I think it comes down to where you sit on the spectrum. If you are pessimistic in nature you will generally call yourself a realist and therefore see optimism as radical. Not always the case.

I don’t know about that Bingo. Some of the more “pessimistic” tend to express their views without denigrating the views of others. Some of the more “optimistic” posters like to be pretty condescending or take personal shots.

This is just my opinion obviously and may well reflect my own biases.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I don’t know about that Bingo. Some of the more “pessimistic” tend to express their views without denigrating the views of others. Some of the more “optimistic” posters like to be pretty condescending or take personal shots.

This is just my opinion obviously and may well reflect my own biases.

You don't know about what? You're saying it's not a two way street?

It happens all the time. People get mocked for trade proposals that are too Flames friendly as an easy example. I roll my eyes too, don't get me wrong, but I don't step in and ridicule them for it.

I'm guessing there is a pretty even distribution of catty responses from both sides of the aisle.

[Textcritic]

So, are you suggesting that this happens? ...

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Some of the more “pessimistic” tend to express their views without denigrating the views of others. Some of the more “optimistic” posters like to be pretty condescending or take personal shots.

... but that this does not happen?

Some of the more “optimistic” tend to express their views without denigrating the views of others. Some of the more “pessimistic” posters like to be pretty condescending or take personal shots.

This is a double standard in my view that pretty clearly reveals a blind spot in your reading of "optimistic" and "pessimistic" posters.

[Bingo]

I've always thought everyone has a blind spot in this as we all see our selves as realists to some degree when no one by definition owns that perfect center.

A pessimist will be more sensitive to like minded people being "attacked", an optimist will be the same.

A contend though that any one hell bent on pushing a sports team's fan site to the perfect center is likely acting like more of a speed bump than a helpful hand.

Pie in the sky is silly, but the site should lean optimistic to some degree or why would they be fans?

[Bingo]

I've always thought everyone has a blind spot in this as we all see our selves as realists to some degree when no one by definition owns that perfect center.

A pessimist will be more sensitive to like minded people being "attacked", an optimist will be the same.

A contend though that any one hell bent on pushing a sports team's fan site to the perfect center is likely acting like more of a speed bump than a helpful hand.

Pie in the sky is silly, but the site should lean optimistic to some degree or why would they be fans?

[Strange Brew]

It’s a two way street, but when it comes to snarkiness or condescension I feel the traffic flow is not the same on both sides. Now I hadn’t thought about trade proposals, and you’re right that the “homer” proposals tend to get shredded just as badly as those that undervalue our players.

Obviously you know this site better than I and have been around longer. Just sharing my perspective and I certainly don’t profess to being perfectly balanced in my views.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

I don't care what anyone has to say about our prospect pool;
1.https://flamesnation.ca/2018/05/16/f...ver-kylington/
2.https://www.reddit.com/r/CalgaryFlam..._age_adjusted/

You probably should.

It's an independent assessment of the state of our current prospects. Now it's just one opinion, but we know that the Calgary existing prospect group, through promotions and lack of high draft picks, is well below average.

Prospects who look capable of playing in the NHL often don't. Maybe even usually don't. That's the numbers game.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

So, are you suggesting that this happens? ...

... but that this does not happen?

This is a double standard in my view that pretty clearly reveals a blind spot in your reading of "optimistic" and "pessimistic" posters.

Didn’t I admit that my view reflects my own biases? It’s not a double standard. Everyone should be held to the same standard but I acknowledge bias in applying the standard.

[pepper24]

We missed the playoffs and have a low ranked prospect pool. Not an optimistic sign. That said, the Flames did address their main issue which was scoring this summer via trade and UFA.

With a low ranked prospect pool and big signings this summer Flames are in win-now mode just like last summer with Hamonic trade. Win or bust.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

You probably should.

It's an independent assessment of the state of our current prospects. Now it's just one opinion, but we know that the Calgary existing prospect group, through promotions and lack of high draft picks, is well below average.

Prospects who look capable of playing in the NHL often don't. Maybe even usually don't. That's the numbers game.

It was more of a blanket statement indicating I would make up my own mind about the prospects instead of strictly basing it upon other people's opinions or rankings..

Of course I don't really get to watch these players live all that often so I do value opinions of those who watch them more regularly.

Basically all I was saying is I will take in all the readily available information about players - so yes I technically do care what others think or have to say about them - as well as watch them play whenever I get the chance. I will use all this info and form my own opinion about how I feel about their NHL chances and potential.

With that being said I like the chances of at least 3 of our guys making the NHL - in what capacity remains to be seen.

I will agree with you that most prospects don't make it even when they look to be heading in that direction.

I also agree the fact that Calgary has graduated it's high end guys and traded away the other high picks lowers them in these types of rankings. I just won't let these rankings tarnish my opinion of certain prospects is all.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by pepper24

We missed the playoffs and have a low ranked prospect pool. Not an optimistic sign. That said, the Flames did address their main issue which was scoring this summer via trade and UFA.

With a low ranked prospect pool and big signings this summer Flames are in win-now mode just like last summer with Hamonic trade. Win or bust.

Of course, the Flames's "win-now mode" is not the same as it is for a team like Minnesota or Anaheim. The Flames with a sizeable group of young players are also fortunate to have a long window which extends for several years. I don't think it is accurate to characterize the situation as "win or bust." It is more like "win now, or win later, or both."