Special Teams 2018-2019

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Red

Every player signed/traded for in such circumstances is in hopes of finding that diamond in the rough. I mean most of the book is already out on him, 25 years old with little success. Reality suggests that 99.9% of these will fail to meet the Vegas "luck model"...

While I have gone on record to claim that circumstances played a huge role in VGK's unprecedented success this season, there was a hell of a lot more to their model than dumb luck. Vegas pretty obviously targeted younger, fast players who were good on the forecheck, and they played a system which emphasized these strengths. I would say that the Flames pro scouting this spring is taking a similar approach.

For the record, I am not against looking for that diamond in the rough, but at what cost? Stalling our prospects because we keep bringing these guys hoping to win the lottery? No thanks.

I would choose to look at it this way: Prior to July 1 the Flames had two players that could potentially grow into impact, scoring roles already in the AHL in Mangiapane and Foo, and then added one more in Czarnik. If ONE of them makes it, that's great. This acquisition increases the chances of it happening by adding another player to the mix.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

It's not luck. It's scouting. You seem to think this is all luck because you don't know the player. Do you not think the Flames extensively scouted the player and have some sense of why they think he is ready to "pop".

What prospects are being stalled?

And yeah most prospects fail. We all know that. So you can predict that and probably be right.

But there are reasons why MOST of the NHL was interested in this guy. That's not meaningless. There is enough there that people that identify talent for a living think this guy could be something.

I really don't know what this is such a bug up your butt.

How many teams were interested in Spencer Foo? Or any other UFA like him. Lots. I mean I will take the word of a scout over someone like me, but, these guys are wrong most of the time, are they not?
Shot in the dark really.

Why so many teams interested? Teams were interested because he was free acquisition. How many teams were willing to trade for him before he went UFA? 0 is my guess., but we don't know for sure. But does that make you think that maybe teams were not interested in sending an asset for his rights? If so, why?


I really think the conversation has shifted here. I have no issues with signing him or trying him. I only called out a guy that assured that Czarnik was guaranteed top 9 minutes for the season and lots of PP time. I don't think I was out of line calling him out on it. But whatever.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Red

How many teams were interested in Spencer Foo? Or any other UFA like him. Lots. I mean I will take the word of a scout over someone like me, but, these guys are wrong most of the time, are they not?
Shot in the dark really.

I don't know why you are using Foo as an example. He's tracking fine
It's not a case of scout being wrong. It's a case of there's only so many NHL jobs and tons of prospects so most won't make it.
But if the basis if your assessment is "most prospects fail" I don't view that as being really great insight or reason to slam someone for optimism.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don't know why you are using Foo as an example. He's tracking fine
It's not a case of scout being wrong. It's a case of there's only so many NHL jobs and tons of prospects so most won't make it.
But if the basis if your assessment is "most prospects fail" I don't view that as being really great insight or reason to slam someone for optimism.

How many times are you going to ignore that I said numerous times that I liked the signing and had no problems with that approach of bringing such guys in? To a degree of course as we have other prospects that need attention too.



My beef isn't with Foo or Czarnik or Mangipane. My beef is with posters putting them on the team's top lines etc. and getting all pissy when someone tells them to curb their enthusiasm a bit. That is all I was talking about.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Red

How many times are you going to ignore that I said numerous times that I liked the signing and had no problems with that approach of bringing such guys in? To a degree of course as we have other prospects that need attention too.



My beef isn't with Foo or Czarnik or Mangipane. My beef is with posters putting them on the team's top lines etc. and getting all pissy when someone tells them to curb their enthusiasm a bit. That is all I was talking about.

Well, there are definitely people getting pissy. I will give you that.

[Red]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, there are definitely people getting pissy. I will give you that.

Thank you for a very meaningful contribution to this conversation.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Red

How many times are you going to ignore that I said numerous times that I liked the signing and had no problems with that approach of bringing such guys in? To a degree of course as we have other prospects that need attention too.



My beef isn't with Foo or Czarnik or Mangipane. My beef is with posters putting them on the team's top lines etc. and getting all pissy when someone tells them to curb their enthusiasm a bit. That is all I was talking about.

I see only one poster "getting all pissy" in this thread...

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Red

How many times are you going to ignore that I said numerous times that I liked the signing and had no problems with that approach of bringing such guys in?

11. 11 times.

[Red]

Well you are taking it to a personal level so it's pretty clear who is feeling the heat. Although with you, being the troll that you are, it isn't a surprise.

[AustinL_NHL]

Guys, let's go easy on Red. I know him on a personal level outside of this place. We're co-workers. He just doesn't know I'm on here as well with an undercover name. It's his job to bring the fire with hot takes.

With that said, hey Red. It's your boy Blue! Can't wait to talk about this in the office!

For those of you who don't know (Red and I are very secretive but passionate about our jobs), his name & job (Red) is about bringing the fire, anger, and intimidation, whereas my name & job (Blue) is about bringing the soft touch, compassion, and gentleness.

It helps us balance the scales

[rotten42]

I think someone has had enough internet today.

[AustinL_NHL]

Originally Posted by rotten42

I think someone has had enough internet today.

The cons of having nothing to do but sit in your vehicle for lunch at work

[GranteedEV]

Oh boy. I am a glutton for punishment. Here I go.

Originally Posted by Red

I don't understand this take. They went out of the way to sign this guy or that guy so the player is guaranteed this and that.

Who said anything about a "guarantee"? We're talking about a plan. If a team thinks a player has skill that can help them on the power play, it is a sensible outcome that they will play said player on the power play.

No guarantees. He is no different that Foo was last year. And Tre also went out of his way to sign him.

A 3 year pro who has already posted strong possession numbers in the NHL and elite production in the AHL every year signing a 1.25M x 2Y One-way contract, eligible for waivers.

A 0 year pro who had one breakout year as an amateur in the NCAA signing an ELC, exempt from waivers.

"No different" according to you.

Okay there. That's just disingenuous.

Czarnik will get some looks in different roles, but expecting him to be a fixture on PP is way too optimistic.

Czarnik will get looks in different roles, but expecting him to flame out and be a 13th forward or AHLer is way too pessimistic.

Let's wait for him to make the team first.

How many instances of players in the prime of their careers, on the first of a multi-year one-way NHL contract with salary greater than a "bury-able" salary, not making the teaming can you identify? It would take a massive misstep for the player to not make the team.

Originally Posted by Red

In the pre-season.

You are manufacturing details that were never stated. It was stated Czarnik would get an opportunity on the power play. It was not stated that would be in the preseason.

And although I am excited to see what he can do, there is a reason why he has 5 goals in the NHL at the age of 25.

And you can be assured that reason is far more complex than you appear willing to acknowledge. Hockey is not baseball or golf. There are many degrees of freedom that affect totals such as this, and that isn't something unique to Czarnik - it is something that applies to every player in the sport from Alex Ovechkin to Nolan Patrick. A statement such as that in the quote suggests a very rigid and flawed evaluation standard, one which the coaching staff, team management, players, and any sensible fan would scoff at as the entire basis of any argument.

Tre signed him so he must be gold.

No one said this, again you are manufacturing a pseudo-statement. Many here had already thought Czarnik "MIGHT" (read: not must) be gold BEFORE July 1st. You can count me in that group, in fact I might be one of the first mentions of the player on CP. Here is a post I made on JUNE 4th:

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Neal being a left shot seems like a tough fit given Ferland, Tkachuk, Monahan can do most of the same things offensively.

Ilya Kovalchuk, Austin Czarnik, Perron, Derek Ryan, Riley Nash, Tyler Bozak are the guys I'd hope are high on their radar. In that order.

Ironically we ended up with Neal, Czarnik, AND Ryan. There are reasons for that which have nothing to do with an appeal to authority - in fact if you know anything about my posting history I find appeals to authority an awful methodology for player evaluation. What I do think is that if the authority claims it will play a player in a given situation, I take their word for it. If they say "Mark Jankowski is an effective penalty killer" I expect Jankowski on the penalty kill. If they say "Troy Brouwer was signed because he is strong on both sides of special teams" I expect Troy Brouwer on special teams - even if I VEHEMENTLY DISAGREE with the claim.

Originally Posted by Red

Short and 160lbs
25 years old
5 carreer goals
Not signed by original team

Am I missing something?

To your criticisms:

- I don't put much if any stock into listed weights. What matters is winning puck battles and puck races, and hockeyDB cannot measure that in what is likely an inaccurate and dated weight listning.

- Being small is virtually irrelevant at this point. It's quietly becoming a small man's game, whether that's Brad Marchand, Cam Atkinson, Tyler Johnson, Brayden Point, Johnny Gaudreau, Artemi Panarin, Paul Byron, Conor Sheary, Yanni Gourde, Jonathan Marchessault, Viktor Arvidsson, Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon, Alex DeBrincat, or Brendan Gallagher. Even Sidney Crosby isn't the biggest body in the world and he's dominated the world for years. Teams have opened their eyes to the effectiveness of skill, and often the reason smaller players historically "didn't make it" was because they weren't given an opportunity to make it in the first place.

- It is not unheard of for 25 year olds to break out once they change teams, because they were put in limited roles on their previous team. This is especially true of smaller players who are often fighting biases against their size in the slotting process, causing their NHL debuts to be delayed relative to their effectiveness. Look no further than Martin St. Louis who was bought out solely for his size before being given an opportunity in the top six. That sort of thing does not happen to the same extent in today's NHL, but the biases do still exist to delay potential breakouts.

- I already addressed the five goal argument, which appears to be the crux of your entire position.

- His original team had no option to sign him, because they failed to meet the criteria to keep him an RFA. As an unrestricted free agent he elected not to sign with a team that had Bergeron, Pastrnak, Krejci, Backes, and Nash slotted ahead of him by default as far as RHS forwards go. It is not a case of a team letting him go because they gave up on him, in fact Bruins were said to have pitched him an offer which he refused.

So yes, you are missing quite a bit.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Red

Austins comments are rediculous. But you disagreed with me. i guess you agree that he should get a spot given to him no matter what.

Extra point for the eponymous misspelling.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Red

Thank you for a very meaningful contribution to this conversation.

I think it ranks up there among the others for truth and insight.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Oh boy. I am a glutton for punishment. Here I go.



Who said anything about a "guarantee"? We're talking about a plan. If a team thinks a player has skill that can help them on the power play, it is a sensible outcome that they will play said player on the power play.

A 3 year pro who has already posted strong possession numbers in the NHL and elite production in the AHL every year signing a 1.25M x 2Y One-way contract, eligible for waivers.

A 0 year pro who had one breakout year as an amateur in the NCAA signing an ELC, exempt from waivers.

"No different" according to you.

Okay there. That's just disingenuous.

Czarnik will get looks in different roles, but expecting him to flame out and be a 13th forward or AHLer is way too pessimistic.

How many instances of players in the prime of their careers, on the first of a multi-year one-way NHL contract with salary greater than a "bury-able" salary, not making the teaming can you identify? It would take a massive misstep for the player to not make the team.



You are manufacturing details that were never stated. It was stated Czarnik would get an opportunity on the power play. It was not stated that would be in the preseason.

And you can be assured that reason is far more complex than you appear willing to acknowledge. Hockey is not baseball or golf. There are many degrees of freedom that affect totals such as this, and that isn't something unique to Czarnik - it is something that applies to every player in the sport from Alex Ovechkin to Nolan Patrick. A statement such as that in the quote suggests a very rigid and flawed evaluation standard, one which the coaching staff, team management, players, and any sensible fan would scoff at as the entire basis of any argument.

No one said this, again you are manufacturing a pseudo-statement. Many here had already thought Czarnik "MIGHT" (read: not must) be gold BEFORE July 1st. You can count me in that group, in fact I might be one of the first mentions of the player on CP. Here is a post I made on JUNE 4th:



Ironically we ended up with Neal, Czarnik, AND Ryan. There are reasons for that which have nothing to do with an appeal to authority - in fact if you know anything about my posting history I find appeals to authority an awful methodology for player evaluation. What I do think is that if the authority claims it will play a player in a given situation, I take their word for it. If they say "Mark Jankowski is an effective penalty killer" I expect Jankowski on the penalty kill. If they say "Troy Brouwer was signed because he is strong on both sides of special teams" I expect Troy Brouwer on special teams - even if I VEHEMENTLY DISAGREE with the claim.



To your criticisms:

- I don't put much if any stock into listed weights. What matters is winning puck battles and puck races, and hockeyDB cannot measure that in what is likely an inaccurate and dated weight listning.

- Being small is virtually irrelevant at this point. It's quietly becoming a small man's game, whether that's Brad Marchand, Cam Atkinson, Tyler Johnson, Brayden Point, Johnny Gaudreau, Artemi Panarin, Paul Byron, Conor Sheary, Yanni Gourde, Jonathan Marchessault, Viktor Arvidsson, Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon, Alex DeBrincat, or Brendan Gallagher. Even Sidney Crosby isn't the biggest body in the world and he's dominated the world for years. Teams have opened their eyes to the effectiveness of skill, and often the reason smaller players historically "didn't make it" was because they weren't given an opportunity to make it in the first place.

- It is not unheard of for 25 year olds to break out once they change teams, because they were put in limited roles on their previous team. This is especially true of smaller players who are often fighting biases against their size in the slotting process, causing their NHL debuts to be delayed relative to their effectiveness. Look no further than Martin St. Louis who was bought out solely for his size before being given an opportunity in the top six. That sort of thing does not happen to the same extent in today's NHL, but the biases do still exist to delay potential breakouts.

- I already addressed the five goal argument, which appears to be the crux of your entire position.

- His original team had no option to sign him, because they failed to meet the criteria to keep him an RFA. As an unrestricted free agent he elected not to sign with a team that had Bergeron, Pastrnak, Krejci, Backes, and Nash slotted ahead of him by default as far as RHS forwards go. It is not a case of a team letting him go because they gave up on him, in fact Bruins were said to have pitched him an offer which he refused.

So yes, you are missing quite a bit.

Thank you, thank you, thank you....

I didn't have the energy or patience to rip Red's arguments to shreds like you just did. Thank you for taking the time to do it.

I too was one who had Czarnik in mind prior to July 1, and I quoted that post you referenced here in that thread stating that he could be the next Marchessault. No guarantees obviously, but very similar players to this point with Czarnik putting up even better numbers in the AHL.

(I also wanted Ryan and brought him up in the Building the Flames thread I started waaay back when Peters was first hired.)

[Red]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Oh boy. I am a glutton for punishment. Here I go.



Who said anything about a "guarantee"? We're talking about a plan. If a team thinks a player has skill that can help them on the power play, it is a sensible outcome that they will play said player on the power play.

A 3 year pro who has already posted strong possession numbers in the NHL and elite production in the AHL every year signing a 1.25M x 2Y One-way contract, eligible for waivers.

A 0 year pro who had one breakout year as an amateur in the NCAA signing an ELC, exempt from waivers.

"No different" according to you.

Okay there. That's just disingenuous.

Czarnik will get looks in different roles, but expecting him to flame out and be a 13th forward or AHLer is way too pessimistic.

How many instances of players in the prime of their careers, on the first of a multi-year one-way NHL contract with salary greater than a "bury-able" salary, not making the teaming can you identify? It would take a massive misstep for the player to not make the team.



You are manufacturing details that were never stated. It was stated Czarnik would get an opportunity on the power play. It was not stated that would be in the preseason.

And you can be assured that reason is far more complex than you appear willing to acknowledge. Hockey is not baseball or golf. There are many degrees of freedom that affect totals such as this, and that isn't something unique to Czarnik - it is something that applies to every player in the sport from Alex Ovechkin to Nolan Patrick. A statement such as that in the quote suggests a very rigid and flawed evaluation standard, one which the coaching staff, team management, players, and any sensible fan would scoff at as the entire basis of any argument.

No one said this, again you are manufacturing a pseudo-statement. Many here had already thought Czarnik "MIGHT" (read: not must) be gold BEFORE July 1st. You can count me in that group, in fact I might be one of the first mentions of the player on CP. Here is a post I made on JUNE 4th:



Ironically we ended up with Neal, Czarnik, AND Ryan. There are reasons for that which have nothing to do with an appeal to authority - in fact if you know anything about my posting history I find appeals to authority an awful methodology for player evaluation. What I do think is that if the authority claims it will play a player in a given situation, I take their word for it. If they say "Mark Jankowski is an effective penalty killer" I expect Jankowski on the penalty kill. If they say "Troy Brouwer was signed because he is strong on both sides of special teams" I expect Troy Brouwer on special teams - even if I VEHEMENTLY DISAGREE with the claim.



To your criticisms:

- I don't put much if any stock into listed weights. What matters is winning puck battles and puck races, and hockeyDB cannot measure that in what is likely an inaccurate and dated weight listning.

- Being small is virtually irrelevant at this point. It's quietly becoming a small man's game, whether that's Brad Marchand, Cam Atkinson, Tyler Johnson, Brayden Point, Johnny Gaudreau, Artemi Panarin, Paul Byron, Conor Sheary, Yanni Gourde, Jonathan Marchessault, Viktor Arvidsson, Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon, Alex DeBrincat, or Brendan Gallagher. Even Sidney Crosby isn't the biggest body in the world and he's dominated the world for years. Teams have opened their eyes to the effectiveness of skill, and often the reason smaller players historically "didn't make it" was because they weren't given an opportunity to make it in the first place.

- It is not unheard of for 25 year olds to break out once they change teams, because they were put in limited roles on their previous team. This is especially true of smaller players who are often fighting biases against their size in the slotting process, causing their NHL debuts to be delayed relative to their effectiveness. Look no further than Martin St. Louis who was bought out solely for his size before being given an opportunity in the top six. That sort of thing does not happen to the same extent in today's NHL, but the biases do still exist to delay potential breakouts.

- I already addressed the five goal argument, which appears to be the crux of your entire position.

- His original team had no option to sign him, because they failed to meet the criteria to keep him an RFA. As an unrestricted free agent he elected not to sign with a team that had Bergeron, Pastrnak, Krejci, Backes, and Nash slotted ahead of him by default as far as RHS forwards go. It is not a case of a team letting him go because they gave up on him, in fact Bruins were said to have pitched him an offer which he refused.

So yes, you are missing quite a bit.

This is so stupid. Go to post #18 and you will get your answer who talked guarantees. I took an issue with that dumb post. Sue me.

You guys are basically disagreeing with someone who said "hold your f'n horses before putting this guy on the team". Yet you laugh when Oilfans talk about yamamoto or some other new shiny toy on their team.

What a bunch of maroons !!!

[Red]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Thank you, thank you, thank you....

I didn't have the energy or patience to rip Red's arguments to shreds like you just did. Thank you for taking the time to do it.

I too was one who had Czarnik in mind prior to July 1, and I quoted that post you referenced here in that thread stating that he could be the next Marchessault. No guarantees obviously, but very similar players to this point with Czarnik putting up even better numbers in the AHL.

(I also wanted Ryan and brought him up in the Building the Flames thread I started waaay back when Peters was first hired.)

What argument did I put forward? That a 25 year old with 0 NHL success may not pan out?

Is this seriously being questioned? WTF people? Worse than HFoil homers.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Red

This is so stupid. Go to post #18 and you will get your answer who talked guarantees. I took an issue with that dumb post. Sue me.

You guys are basically disagreeing with someone who said "hold your f'n horses before putting this guy on the team". Yet you laugh when Oilfans talk about yamamoto or some other new shiny toy on their team.

What a bunch of maroons !!!

This is the post you are referring to:

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

Peters already basically guaranteed that Czarnik will get a ton of PP time, if not be a mainstay. Also, Czarnik is considered by Peters to be an "elite power-play player" and by the way Czarnik talked when being interviewed after signing, it seems Treliving and Peters basically told him he's going to be playing top 9 minutes and at minimum be an every day roster player.

Also guessing they didn't travel all the way down to meet with him in person and sign him to a 2-year/$2.5M contract just for him to be a 13th forward.

So....

This is from an article in the sun after the signing:

Peters referred to Czarnik as an “an elite power-play player” and promised he will be pencilled in for duties on one of Calgary’s man-advantage units.

Well holy ####ing #### hey? I wonder why we think Czarnik we'll be given powerplay time? What a goddamn mystery....

Can you just shut up now? You've been ridiculous in this thread. It's getting embarrassing now.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

This is the post you are referring to:




This is from an article in the sun after the signing:



Well holy ####ing #### hey? I wonder why we think Czarnik we'll be given powerplay time? What a goddamn mystery....

Can you just shut up now? You've been ridiculous in this thread. It's getting embarrassing now.

It is called lip service. What the heck did you expect them to say about a new shiny toy?

You are embarrassing if you can't see that.