I have heard a lot of Oiler fans state that it is reasonable to assume that McDavid would take a bit of a discount in order to 'help build a winner'.
On the surface, sure. But when you think about it actually playing out, it doesn't fly so easily.
First, if I am his agent, and the Oilers present the 'help build a winner' argument, my reaction is: why not see if there are teams that can build a winner without us taking a discount?
But wait - every team has the same issues and challenges with the cap, you say.
Except they don't. The simple fact of the matter is that some teams have an easier time attracting players than other teams do. As someone already pointed out, Chicago has been able to stay competitive because they can continually attract players, at reasonable prices.
Conversely the Oilers, being more of an NHL backwater, have to pay a premium to get players to come there. And that poses a huge problem for McDavid and the cap.
NY, Chicago, and teams like that, can attract players more cheaply than Edmonton can. Therefore, every team doesn't in fact have the same cap issues.
If I am McDavid and the Oilers come crying to me about the cap, my reply is that the cap is your problem not mine.
And we haven't even discussed the difference in tax rates yet (and on $12M or whatever it will be, those differences are HUGE).
The control is always with the star player barring lockout time.
I mean if McDavid wants to screw over the Oilers there isn't anything stopping him.
I think it's unlikely for him to do so based on the collective actions of star players in the NHL.
If you think Connor Mcdavid will try to put the screws to the Oilers it's because you are probably just projecting your feelings towards the Oilers onto the situation.
The likelihood of McDavid's contract negotiations going down like you hope isn't very high IMO.
He will be paid close to max. That's not putting the screws to the Oilers, its being paid what he's worth.
If you think the Oilers are going to get a sweet deal with the best player in the game since Crosby and Ovechkin entered the league - you're totally out to lunch.
The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to WesternCanadaKing For This Useful Post:
Location: Oklahoma - Where they call a puck a ball...
Exp:
Quote:
Originally Posted by manwiches
I've been very vocal of my heritage on this board, but this really intrigues me. I hope to see the game grow significantly in China and other Asian territories. I know for a fact that there is an ice hockey league in Hong Kong, primarily (ok, almost exclusively) being played in with ex-pats. Outside of this (at least in Hong Kong), not many are interested in hockey, unless they have lived or are from Canada. One of my cousins is not as keen on it, however do follow from time to time, as her and her husband lived in Vancouver for 10 years. My other family and friends who live there could care less.
I think you'd be very surprised at the number of kids china is sending over to Canada to be trained in hockey. They are also spending a large amount of dollars to bring hockey specialist over to hockey to train children.
You're a fool if you believe that. If McDavid's camp isn't doing everything they can to get to UFA status as soon as possible they are doing the player a disservice. McDavid is going to be a max salary player. Accept it, and prepare for it. That means the best strategy is to wait for his contract to expire, take the max for the minimum length, then hit UFA status, cashing in then with an even bigger number. That's just the way a smart agency would handle the situation. It has nothing to do with the Oilers, and everything to do with the player. Frankly, the Oilers are irrelevant. He could be playing for the Flames and the I would say the scenario plays out the exact same way.
Well the situation basically never plays out like that for other star players so just because it's what you would do, it isn't a high probability for this situation.
Well the situation basically never plays out like that for other star players so just because it's what you would do, it isn't a high probability for this situation.
The Ryan O'Reilly types are rare in the NHL.
I agree that we certainly haven't seen many examples in recent history, but this is an unprecedented situation for the current CBA. McDavid is going to command maximum salary and max term. How many other players have had contract negotiations come up since the 2011 lockout that were able to demand anywhere in that ballpark? Kane? Toews? Elite players (I'd say in Toews' case its pretty debatable) but not "generational". Stamkos? He had declined a bit from his best seasons and was arguably not even the best player on his own team. I can't think of any others. In McDavid's case he's orders of magnitude better than almost every player in the league and presumably will be for the next decade or so. Other GMs would be stupid not to throw as much money and term at him as possible. So, with that bargaining position established, how could the Oilers counter with anything less? Their only real leverage is being able to offer 8 years as opposed to 7. (I won't speculate on whether he would prefer max dollars/min UFA term to choose his destination)
And as other posters have mentioned, they don't have the luxury that Pittsburgh had when they signed Crosby to a super long term back-diving contract in a system that (theoretically) allowed for unlimited term. There is no reason for McDavid to not test the limits of the current system.
Well the situation basically never plays out like that for other star players so just because it's what you would do, it isn't a high probability for this situation.
The Ryan O'Reilly types are rare in the NHL.
and LOOOOL I can't believe you still have that sig!
The Following User Says Thank You to Party Elephant For This Useful Post:
Well the situation basically never plays out like that for other star players so just because it's what you would do, it isn't a high probability for this situation.
The Ryan O'Reilly types are rare in the NHL.
There has been no other situation like this since the last CBA was ratified. McDavid is a first and will demand all that traffic will bear. When was the last time that a 19-year-old lead the league in scoring and was the odds on favorite for being the Hart trophy winner? I guarantee you there going to be 30 teams lining up with offer sheets for McJesus. If he can elevate the #### show that is the Edmonton Oilers to a playoff team, imagine what he can do for every other organization in the league? Las Vegas will be backing up a Brinks truck full of money to secure McDavid services. So every other team in the NHL.
As much as it would give me pleasure to see the Coilers lose the best players they've had since Gretz, I really don't see it happening. The Coil will do everything they can to get him extended before any team has a chance at making an offer sheet. I think it's kind of a moot point that other teams will offer the moon, they'll never get the chance.
Players are not idiots (well not all). Public perception is probably a factor that gets calculated into these decisions. Does anyone want to be the next Lindros (off the ice)? No. People can bang their fist on the desk all day about maximizing contract potential and unprecedented talent in an unprecedented CBA/cap situation all day. It doesn't mean it will happen. Katz will do ANYTHING to keep the saviour there. Yes probably even illegal things. I would.
Well the situation basically never plays out like that for other star players so just because it's what you would do, it isn't a high probability for this situation.
The Ryan O'Reilly types are rare in the NHL.
I think you have to factor in that Edmonton is not a place where he wanted to be. He's accepted it for sure but it's a little different to compare a player in Pittsburgh, Washington, Chicago vs Calgary, Edmonton, or Winnipeg. Most elite players would prefer to play in an American market or Toronto and that's the sad truth. Gaudreau certainly didn't discount his services to the Flames but I bet he would have accepted less if he was Bruin and close to home. There is really no reason for McDavid to offer the Oilers any discount for his services seeing if he had a choice in the matter he wouldn't be there in the first place.
Last edited by Erick Estrada; 02-09-2017 at 08:32 AM.
As much as it would give me pleasure to see the Coilers lose the best players they've had since Gretz, I really don't see it happening.
Yeah, it won't happen. But I don't think it'll it'll be near as "low" (relative terms here) as Weitz is tricking himself into believing it'll be. I do think they'll go for the full 8 year term.
I figure the most likely AAV's will be...
12.5 (100M Total... hard to say no to a deal with 9 figures on the good side of the decimal point)
12.77 (Max salary but McDavid gives them a "free" year... total amount on a salary limit 7 year deal spread out over 8)
13.87 (Matches the Ovechkin deal in terms of % of the cap/max salary)
As much as it would give me pleasure to see the Coilers lose the best players they've had since Gretz, I really don't see it happening. The Coil will do everything they can to get him extended before any team has a chance at making an offer sheet. I think it's kind of a moot point that other teams will offer the moon, they'll never get the chance.
Players are not idiots (well not all). Public perception is probably a factor that gets calculated into these decisions. Does anyone want to be the next Lindros (off the ice)? No. People can bang their fist on the desk all day about maximizing contract potential and unprecedented talent in an unprecedented CBA/cap situation all day. It doesn't mean it will happen. Katz will do ANYTHING to keep the saviour there. Yes probably even illegal things. I would.
If he's going to do anything to keep him there for the max 8 years then the Oilers need to prepare to pay him 14 million bucks a year.
At the end of the day, if his valuation to the Oilers and the NHL is a billion bucks worth of publicity, merchandising, ticket sales etc then that's the first thing that Orr is going to mention in negotiations.
The NHLPA is going to pressure Orr to negotiate hard, McDavid is going to set the pricing scale for the next generation of players. And Orr has the biggest negotiating chip that I can think of. How long would it take the Oilers to crack if Orr said 12 million or my client doesn't show up at camp until I get 12 million. For average to Star Players it doesn't really work because a team can survive without him. The Oilers can't survive without McDavid.
If I was Orr, I'd be showing up at Chia's office like this
__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
If he's going to do anything to keep him there for the max 8 years then the Oilers need to prepare to pay him 14 million bucks a year.
At the end of the day, if his valuation to the Oilers and the NHL is a billion bucks worth of publicity, merchandising, ticket sales etc then that's the first thing that Orr is going to mention in negotiations.
The NHLPA is going to pressure Orr to negotiate hard, McDavid is going to set the pricing scale for the next generation of players. And Orr has the biggest negotiating chip that I can think of. How long would it take the Oilers to crack if Orr said 12 million or my client doesn't show up at camp until I get 12 million. For average to Star Players it doesn't really work because a team can survive without him. The Oilers can't survive without McDavid.
If I was Orr, I'd be showing up at Chia's office like this
I agree that he's going to command the highest AAV we've yet seen but I don't know where you're getting this billion dollar valuation from. To say he alone is worth 1/3 of the league's revenue is far fetched at best. 14 million? Maybe but I think around 12 million will be where it lands.
He will be paid many monies. Flames fans will be content that this has created new challenges for the Coil. Coiler fans will be happy to have one of the best players in the game.
If McDavid would take a discount to help "build a winner", it will come with some measure of informal control by him over personnel.
Anyway, why not take more money to "play on an established winner"? Or one with a lot more pieces towards being one? What abut a team like Minnie, with a lot of serious pieces in place and the need for a centrepiece?
I agree that he's going to command the highest AAV we've yet seen but I don't know where you're getting this billion dollar valuation from. To say he alone is worth 1/3 of the league's revenue is far fetched at best. 14 million? Maybe but I think around 12 million will be where it lands.
He will be paid many monies. Flames fans will be content that this has created new challenges for the Coil. Coiler fans will be happy to have one of the best players in the game.
You have to ask what MCDavid would be worth on the open market, because that is what we are talking about here. McDavid is a very special player that would make every team he is on a playoff contender. Not a cup contender, but a playoff contender, and right away. That is money in the bank. Is h worth the max? Hell yes. Do you dump multiple players for nothing to get him? Hell yes. He is that good. Every team knows this and will pay the maximum if given a chance. So it the. Comes down to where McDavid wants to be and where he wants to play.
Now, on his salary. The max is the number. 20% of cap. That is the start and finish of negotiations. If his agency doesn't take this stance, they are fools. That is the market for the player and there will be multiple teams willing to pay it. Everyone knows that Edmonton will pay that max number. They would be fools not to. The long term goal is to drive that number to the shortest term to get the player to UFA status, where you have the ability to get the player. Asked on his desire to play for you. So teams will drive the max salary and at only five years. That will get McDavid to free agency quickest and out of Edmonton's control.
McDavid's agency should be driving this as well. A five year deal guarantees him $73M. It also gets him to free agency the quickest. Based on escalator options in five years the salary cap should be approaching the $93M number, so long as the revenues can sustain that growth. That means in that time frame his possible salary should be approaching the $18.6M number. The long term benefit by signing the contracts stacked up this way are obvious. The only benefit the Oilers can off r is the extra year of salary, but that doesn't matter much when he is going to be a max cap player. The best strategy is to get to UFA as quickly as possible and get that big paycheck on top of what you have already earned. Signing longer term with the Oilers, or any other team for that matter, likely makes him leave about $10-20M on the table.
I think any discount "to help build a winner" depends on his faith in the organization. We know that players will be paid and even at a discount it will be a hefty cap hit. McDavid and his agent are an astute group and probably forced the old inept management out. No way he leaves significant money on the table if he doesn't believe in the current groups plan so I think it will be a good gauge to how he thinks things are going up north.
