[GT] Flames 2016-17 Playoff Snake

[Samonadreau]

Flames ppg is .88, 14th (last) in the west.

The 8th place team in the west in that category is Anaheim at 1.09.

That 1.09 projects to a 90 point season and the .88 projects to a 72 point season.

With 57 games left the Flames will have to play 1.21 ppg hockey the rest of the way to make it to 91 points which give them enough to get in at the current projections. That 1.21 ppg translates to a prorated 99 point season.

If it will take a little more - say 94 points they will need 1.26 ppg which would be a prorated 104 point season.

If there's a chance its closing soon.

[TheIronMaiden]

The Flames can only make the playoffs if the Snake wills it.

[Greybeard]

Thanks for the snakes. Especially like Canuck and Oiler too. Please keep posting.

[Tacopuck]

Snake!

[Domoic]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Flames ppg is .88, 14th (last) in the west.

The 8th place team in the west in that category is Anaheim at 1.09.

That 1.09 projects to a 90 point season and the .88 projects to a 72 point season.

With 57 games left the Flames will have to play 1.21 ppg hockey the rest of the way to make it to 91 points which give them enough to get in at the current projections. That 1.21 ppg translates to a prorated 99 point season.

If it will take a little more - say 94 points they will need 1.26 ppg which would be a prorated 104 point season.

If there's a chance its closing soon.

Great post.

To get to 91 points from here ---> 31-19-7

[squiggs96]

[CroFlames]

I both hate and love the snakes.

[belsarius]

Didn't actually do the math but by the eyeball test the slope of best fit line for the past 9 games (since the last losing streak) looks like a pace that will be very close to intercepting the black snake on games 81 or 82.

You can do it snake! You can do it all night long!

[troutman]

A decent road trip means Calgary still has a shot if they take care of business on home ice in December.

[Five-hole]

We really need one good winning streak and then to play 0.550 hockey the rest of the way. Five or six wins in a row, or something like 6 of 7.

Not impossible.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by belsarius

Didn't actually do the math but by the eyeball test the slope of best fit line for the past 9 games (since the last losing streak) looks like a pace that will be very close to intercepting the black snake on games 81 or 82.

You can do it snake! You can do it all night long!

The Flames have 11 points their last 9 games, for a 1.222 PPG average. Over the remaining 57 games that would be 70 points, and 92 points for the season. 11 points in 9 games points you on pace for 100 points over the full 82 game season.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

We really need one good winning streak and then to play 0.550 hockey the rest of the way. Five or six wins in a row, or something like 6 of 7.

Not impossible.

Next 14 games, with one left in November and 13 in December:

vs. Toronto (9-8-4)
vs. Minnesota (11-7-3)
vs. Anaheim (10-8-4)
at Dallas (9-8-6)
at Arizona (8-10-2)
vs. Winnipeg (10-12-2)
vs. Tampa Bay (13-9-1)
vs. Columbus (11-5-4)
at Arizona (8-10-2)
at San Jose (12-9-1)
vs. Vancouver (9-11-2)
at Colorado (9-10-1)
vs. Anaheim (10-8-4)
vs. Arizona (8-10-2)

The worst part of Calgary's schedule is over. They have played the most games in the NHL (25), while two teams have only played 20 games. Calgary only has one back to back set in December (at Arizona, at San Jose), but they have two days of before and after these two games. They also play at home before and after. From the 21st-26th they only play once, at home against Vancouver.

Toronto, Anaheim (1st game), and Vancouver games are all their second game of a back to back. The Vancouver game is their third game in four nights, although the previous two games are two straight home games against Winnipeg.

Calgary plays the worst team in the league, Arizona, three times in December. They also get Vancouver and Colorado, which are near the basement.

In order to be above the black line after the NYE game, they would need 24 points in the 14 games. That seems unreasonable. The green snake had 45 points after 39 points, so the red snake would still need 23 points to catch it by then. In order to finish with 96 points the Flames need 74 points in their last 57 games (1.298 PPG). If they are on that pace, they will get 18 points in the last 14 games of 2016 with a record of 9-5-0, or some combination. Given the opponents, locations, and last few games, that doesn't seem unreasonable. A win tomorrow against Toronto will put them on the right track.

[Robbob]

Winning a 7 game segment is .571. I find it a lot more manageable to look at those then the whole picture. That being said we have not won a 7 game segment yet this season.

S1 - 2-4-1
S2 - 3-4-0
S3 - 3-4-0
S4 - 2-1-1 (3 games left TOR, MIN, ANA)

They need to start by winning this segment. They are 4-3-1 since the loss of Gaudreau.

half full

[Komskies]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Winning a 7 game segment is .571. I find it a lot more manageable to look at those then the whole picture. That being said we have not won a 7 game segment yet this season.

S1 - 2-4-1
S2 - 3-4-0
S3 - 3-4-0
S4 - 2-1-1 (3 games left TOR, MIN, ANA)

They need to start by winning this segment. They are 4-3-1 since the loss of Gaudreau.

half full

I think it was Babcock, but another coach was going for a 6 points every 5 game segment approach. If you could get 6 points every 5 games you would have 96 points after 80 games.

[Bunk]

That's a decent schedule. A vintage December run and we can be in good shape. It would be nice if Johnny returned this month too.

[Otto-matic]

4 points back of the oilers and 1st in the pacific! Echo what everyone else is saying but thank god the entire division is struggling this year.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Next 14 games, with one left in November and 13 in December:

vs. Toronto (9-8-4)
vs. Minnesota (11-7-3)
vs. Anaheim (10-8-4)
at Dallas (9-8-6)
at Arizona (8-10-2)
vs. Winnipeg (10-12-2)
vs. Tampa Bay (13-9-1)
vs. Columbus (11-5-4)
at Arizona (8-10-2)
at San Jose (12-9-1)
vs. Vancouver (9-11-2)
at Colorado (9-10-1)
vs. Anaheim (10-8-4)
vs. Arizona (8-10-2)

The worst part of Calgary's schedule is over. They have played the most games in the NHL (25), while two teams have only played 20 games. Calgary only has one back to back set in December (at Arizona, at San Jose), but they have two days of before and after these two games. They also play at home before and after. From the 21st-26th they only play once, at home against Vancouver.

Toronto, Anaheim (1st game), and Vancouver games are all their second game of a back to back. The Vancouver game is their third game in four nights, although the previous two games are two straight home games against Winnipeg.

Calgary plays the worst team in the league, Arizona, three times in December. They also get Vancouver and Colorado, which are near the basement.

In order to be above the black line after the NYE game, they would need 24 points in the 14 games. That seems unreasonable. The green snake had 45 points after 39 points, so the red snake would still need 23 points to catch it by then. In order to finish with 96 points the Flames need 74 points in their last 57 games (1.298 PPG). If they are on that pace, they will get 18 points in the last 14 games of 2016 with a record of 9-5-0, or some combination. Given the opponents, locations, and last few games, that doesn't seem unreasonable. A win tomorrow against Toronto will put them on the right track.

Never pass up a chance to use this gif

[drewtastic]

Flames win!! You know what the people want:

Spoiler!

[worth]

Snake snake snake snake snake snake snake

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Bunk

That's a decent schedule. A vintage December run and we can be in good shape. It would be nice if Johnny returned this month too.

I think Johnny could be back within 2 weeks given how he was looking out there and handling pucks. Definitely by Christmas.

Hope the team can hold the fort until then. If they manage to, then they will be all the better with Gaudreau and won't rely on him like it seemed they were early on. Whatever he brings at that point is just gravy.

Not to say any injury is a good thing, but this could be a blessing in disguise for the team. We know what Johnny will bring, but the other cogs in the wheel that is the team needed to put their games together and most have come a long way towards that (Hamilton, Brodie, Giordano (minus the goals), and Monahan starting to turn the corner...possibly).