Is the Calgary Flames rebuild ahead of the Edmonton Oilers?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by cam_wmh

Went wild.

ps, over the last 10 years (from 06/07 to 15/16) the Oilers were MINUS 464. LOL

I was just looking at the last 10 years as well - some goal differential Fun Facts:

The last time the Oilers scored more goals than they gave up was 2006 - a full decade ago. They managed an impressive +7 that year.

Over the 10 years since, the Oilers are - naturally - 30th overall.

1) Pitt: +317
30) Edm: -464

In 786 games, the Oilers are 781 behind the Penguins. That's one full goal per game, every game, for a decade!

The only team within 200 of the Oilers is the Leafs, who managed a -307

Of the other 29 teams, 19 of them (including the Flames) were better than the Oilers by at least 0.5 per game (that's per game for an entire decade)

If the Oilers go 82 - 0 - 0 this year, outscoring the opposition 5 to 0 every night, they would still have a negative goal differential for the last 11 years!

And they would still be behind the Flames over that period (unless the Flames go -18 or worse)

[Vinny01]

Imagine how awful the Oilers future would-be if they didn't win in 2015 and drafted Strome, Hanifin, Marner?

[Enoch Root]

GranteedEV:

You make some good points, but your view is far too one-dimensional. Teams need players of different roles and different skill sets. Always putting offensive skill first, will leave you with a one-dimensional, unbalanced team.

Also, I think there is a lot of hindsight used in the Nurse / Ristolainen debates. Nurse was considered - almost unanimously - the better prospect. No question that Ristolainen has since passed Nurse, but saying that was a bad pick is a big stretch. SUre, Nurse's game was more well-rounded, while Ristolainen had the higher upside. But the fact that Ristolainen has developed more than Nurse, does not prove that picking the higher offensive upside vs overall upside, is the better strategy every time.

Saying Subban is more impactful on a game than Weber - sure. But you win with a Weber. There is a reason one of them is always on TC and one never is. No team-mate ever called Weber uncoachable.

While offensive skill may be the single most important skill, there are many aspects to a good team. A team needs balance, and that includes size, grit, defensive play, etc.

Your post illustrates why you don't understand the Brouwer signing - your view is one-dimensional, and thus flawed.

Edit: and the fact that you cited Ottawa as a team doing it right, well...

[AlbertaOiler72]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

They have actually developed players like Petry, Klefbom, and I was impressed by Brandon Davidson last year who was a long term guy in their system. Eberle as a 24th OA has to be considered a success even if he can be a soft dum dum (Not as if a guy like Tanguay was much better at certain details).

But they probably botched some key picks:

Hall vs Seguin - Even if they were calling their tank the "Fall for Hall", if it's close you take the centre (see: Dubois over Puljujarvi) and that one was was real close.

Yakupov vs Galchenyuk vs Murray. See above, but add if it's close you take the defenseman. This is not a retrospect pick - Murray was drawing Niedermayer comparisions at the time and may actually be a bust relative to expectations thus far but would absolutely have been the right pick.

Ristolainen vs Nurse - Maybe I am twisting it to retrospect but I do truly recall there were teams that had Risto way higher than where he actually went. Including Calgary. You have to draft offensive ceilings, I will expand later.

2015 #16OA+#33OA for Griffen Reinhart - A bad trade is one thing, but when it's for a prospect whose ceiling is basically Cory Sarich it follows a broken pattern.

That pattern? Drafting players with bottom pair / 3rd line offensive ceilings under the assumption that their stars could carry the load and just needed grit to "make space" for them.

It doesn't work like that. You need a player that can hopefully be a first liner just to actually luck across a competent 3rd liner. You need a player with potential top pairing skills to max out as a useful #5PP specialist. Your late rounders have to have some high end skill and hockey sense, not just be hard workers who give effort.

Flames learned it after Detroit outskilled us in 2007. That was the year we took our drafting philosophy and overhauled it.

Oilers never took a chance on a guy that could be anything more than a 2nd pair D at best or a 3rd liner at best. I would say Petry was a resounding success... a 20 pt #4, maybe #3. But that was with everything bouncing right for him. He was the rare player that hit his original ceiling. Which offensively was "eh".

Which brings us back to Nurse VS Ristolainen.

You can't predict how a player will develop. You can somewhat guide it. In the draft though you can start with the best set of tools available to give your guidance the best chance.

Offensive skill, not belligerence or size, is the best tool you can have. In this sport escapability with the puck is the best defense, that's why even a pure shut down centre or true defensive blueliner needs high-end offensive skill to an extent (Koivu or Hjalmarsson).

Ristolainen and Nurse were very close in some categories but the offense always favoured Risto. Everything else could not be and still cannot be predicted, but Nurse will likely never develop Risto's offensive skill. Just as Adam Larsson is unlikely to ever approach Dougie Hamilton's offensive skillset. Defense? Maybe in two years Dougie and Larsson are equals. There is only so much you can impact the game without the puck. The offensive player is always at the advantage.

That is how Nurse was an inherently poor pick. That he is now defensively behind Ristolainen is luck of the draw, but the difference offensively was clear on day zero.

On a side note that is also why Montreal lost the Subban trade. Even if Weber is better away from the puck, Subban is more able to individually impact a team game with his dynamic skill.

On a side side note that is also why Dougie Hamilton is better than Trouba and Myers.

On a side side side note that is also why I would hedge my bets on Kylington over Olli Juolevi despite that coming across as overly homerish.

On a side side side side note, I unfortunately can't say anything bad about the Leafs/Sens, they actually do get it systemically.

so by your logic, Erik Karlsson is by far and away the best defensemen in the league?

[PepsiFree]

I'm not sure that I understand how the forward group of the Oilers is ahead of the Flames, when Calgary's forward group has out-scored Edmonton's for the past four years straight in total goals (by forwards only, obviously).

[Insufficient Funds]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I'm not sure that I understand how the forward group of the Oilers is ahead of the Flames, when Calgary's forward group has out-scored Edmonton's for the past four years straight in total goals (by forwards only, obviously).

Because you're using things like "logic" and "statistical facts". There's no room for these things when speaking about the Oilers.

Maybe Staples is saying that they're visually better?

[sun]

Originally Posted by cam_wmh

Went wild.

ps, over the last 10 years (from 06/07 to 15/16) the Oilers were MINUS 464. LOL

Guess the oilers never read any primers on the value of outscoring their opponents.

[MisterJoji]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Larsson is a very good defenseman, and as a prospect he was being compared to Lidstrom himself for a reason (hockey sense but ALSO offensive upside that never progressed).

Where the two players (Larsson / Dougie) are at right now, I would say Larsson is the better player.

But in two or three years, I don't know if that will be true. For a 23 year old defenseman to defend like Larsson has over the last season, two seasons is pretty impressive. But Hamilton himself was only 22 last year, and defensive play typically doesn't solidify until around age 24, 25 in blueliners. If he figures it all out he can be a true impact player like Hedman. At this point I would put Larsson's ceiling at more of a Ryan Suter. Who is still a great player, just not as great as Hedman.

[Vinny01]

When the Flames acquired Dougie Hamilton the talk was they got an advanced stats darling who played top pair minutes in a defensive system in Boston. He was exposed early in Calgary's run and gun style and while he bounced back offensively the new narrative amongst the haters is he is a great point producer but bad in his own zone

Adam Larson was a possession player top pairing D last year in NJ playing with Andy Greene. NJ has always been a team known for their defensive structure. The Oilers signed NJ dman Mark Fayne a couple years ago who was also an advanced stats darling who played with Andy Greene. Fayne has been nothing short of a train wreck in Edmonton. I am not expecting Larson to be that bad but expect some major growing pains from him this year

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

When the Flames acquired Dougie Hamilton the talk was they got an advanced stats darling who played top pair minutes in a defensive system in Boston. He was exposed early in Calgary's run and gun style and while he bounced back offensively the new narrative amongst the haters is he is a great point producer but bad in his own zone

Adam Larson was a possession player top pairing D last year in NJ playing with Andy Greene. NJ has always been a team known for their defensive structure. The Oilers signed NJ dman Mark Fayne a couple years ago who was also an advanced stats darling who played with Andy Greene. Fayne has been nothing short of a train wreck in Edmonton. I am not expecting Larson to be that bad but expect some major growing pains from him this year

To be fair, to all of our d-men, our defensive zone strategy was the absolute worse.

When your coach actively tells you to leave opposing players alone in front of the net so you can step into the shooting lane to attempt to block the shot...well, you can only do so much.

[dino7c]

Is this a good time to bring up the fact that the Oilers had a worse record WITH McDavid in the lineup? For whatever reason its true so the whole injuries held them back argument doesn't really fly with me. Guy is a great talent, he needs to learn to use his team mates a little better though. Full speed to the net every time he has the puck is getting predictable...not to mention it will have him injured often.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Is this a good time to bring up the fact that the Oilers had a worse record WITH McDavid in the lineup? For whatever reason its true so the whole injuries held them back argument doesn't really fly with me. Guy is a great talent, he needs to learn to use his team mates a little better though. Full speed to the net every time he has the puck is getting predictable...not to mention it will have him injured often.

Its standard Oilers Modus Operandi.

"I dont have to work because McJesus/Hall/RNH/Yak/Drai or whomever is going to do it!"

That culture shift that they've been craving? It still hasnt happened. They still slack off expecting one of the other Wunderkinder to do all of the heavy lifting.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by Locke

Its standard Oilers Modus Operandi.

"I dont have to work because McJesus/Hall/RNH/Yak/Drai or whomever is going to do it!"

That culture shift that they've been craving? It still hasnt happened. They still slack off expecting one of the other Wunderkinder to do all of the heavy lifting.

It's worse than that. It's not just "I don't need to try because Hall/McDavid/etc. will win games for us", though that is definitely a part of it.

The bottom 6 were being told to lay it all on the line and give it their all, despite the fact that the golden boys were lazy on the backcheck (at best) and were never held accountable for it. You can imagine how quickly that song and dance wears thin when you're being told to work harder than a guy making 4x your salary but who doesn't have to do jack @$&%. And guys who seemed to speak up about it, like Perron, got shipped out the door.

Then to top it off, it's always them bearing the brunt of the criticism as to why the Oilers are no good -- lack of a supporting cast.

[Flash Walken]

I think gifting a 20 year old player with the captaincy for his team as well as an international team for a best on best tournament probably isn't addressing the culture of entitlement that has plagued the oilers locker room for a decade.

But, believing that 10 years of abject failure is somehow the responsibility of the revolving door of players in the locker room is stupid.

It's always been management and it will always be management. They should've traded Kevin Lowe for Larsson if they wanted to address the cultural failings of the organization.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I think gifting a 20 year old player with the captaincy for his team as well as an international team for a best on best tournament probably isn't addressing the culture of entitlement that has plagued the oilers locker room for a decade.

But, believing that 10 years of abject failure is somehow the responsibility of the revolving door of players in the locker room is stupid.

It's always been management and it will always be management. They should've traded Kevin Lowe for Larsson if they wanted to address the cultural failings of the organization.

You are implying that management, the impeccable Oilers management at that, is in any way at fault for this disastrous fiasco?

That group of fine, upstanding gentlemen who are heavily experienced in the realm of victory? The thought that they could, in any conceivable manner, bear any form of responsibility for the current state of the Edmonton Oilers is so reprehensible that it borders upon heresy good sir! Heresy!

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

But the fact that Ristolainen has developed more than Nurse, does not prove that picking the higher offensive upside vs overall upside, is the better strategy every time.

The one individual instance does not but as a strategy it is most likely to produce.

I feel the same way re: Sergachyev vs Juolevi in last year's draft or Hanfin v Provorov/Werenski in the year prior. If it is close and you take the lower offensive upside consistently you are giving your team the lowest ceiling and by extension floor even if you have few busts along the way.

While offensive skill may be the single most important skill, there are many aspects to a good team. A team needs balance, and that includes size, grit, defensive play, etc.

Defensive play, yes. I never said you don't need to play defense, what I said was you don't know how a prospect will defend in their prime so you can't overvalue it. You can apply offensive skills and hockey sense to improve defensive play. The best defensive players today weren't necessarily the best defensive players as 18 year olds, but they were very likely strong offensive players. The Zdeno Charas who come out of nowhere offensively are total surprise stories, you can't reasonably expect to recreate that without the gift of hindsight.

Skilled Size, in the right places. A Hedman, Muzzin, or Hjalmarsson yes. Or a Ferland or Dustin Brown. Doesn't mean size for the sake of size, or using size specifically just to fill out the bottom of your roster.

Grit, in terms of battling, being strong on pucks, and commitment to details yes. Hitting to create on the forecheck or seperate opponents from the puck defensively, yes.

"Grit", in terms of mindlessly emphasizing all hits, all blocks, any fights, and "giving-talking-tos", no, because they don't work.

Your post illustrates why you don't understand the Brouwer signing - your view is one-dimensional, and thus flawed.

My post illustrates why I disagree with the Brouwer signing. Trust me, I "understand" it just fine. Sorry for having a different perspective from you, but no I am not looking at it from one-single-dimension just because you disagree with me. Your post illustrates an unnecessary arrogance though, by suggesting I simply "don't understand" it.

Edit: and the fact that you cited Ottawa as a team doing it right, well...

Ottawa is doing it right within their means (No tanking, budget team). They even made a Young-kid-for-vet-trade (Zibanejad-for-Brassard trade) that took advantage of the value of offensive skill and converted that into two-way competence.

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

so by your logic, Erik Karlsson is by far and away the best defensemen in the league?

He almost surely will be, but no I don't know if he's exactly there yet. I still have guys like Keith and Doughty ahead.

[Bingo]

Wonder if Jones is writing another gem like this next month ...

Math to the Playoffs!

I have the 2015-16 Edmonton Oilers 37 points better with a 99-point season and in the playoffs. You?

Close Terry!