The NHL Needs to Embrace the Gold Plan

[Gord Wappel]

Alberta_Beef is not as logical as Alberta beef

[PeteMoss]

Here are the final Gold Plan standings from Down Goes Brown latest post https://sports.vice.com/ca/article/d...the-pink-slip:

[Cowboy89]

Far too complicated and doesn't address the incentive for roster players to care. In my mind it's simple: If you don't make the playoffs draft ranking is determined by lottery that is completely random and equal weighted.

[getbak]

I believe that chart shows exactly why this idea doesn't work. It solves a problem that doesn't really exist. Bad teams lose a lot of games down the stretch because they are bad teams and not because they're tanking.


I compared the actual number of points each team got after elimination and compared it to how many points each team "should" have earned in the same number of games based on their season-long points percentage...

(first number is the team's "expected" points, the second number is the actual, and the final number is the difference)

BOS :: N/A
CAR :: 3 / 2 |-1
OTT :: 4 / 4 | 0
NJD :: 3 / 2 |-1
COL :: 2 / 0 |-2
MTL :: 6 / 8 | 2
BUF :: 8 /11 | 3
ARI :: 5 / 3 |-2
WPG :: 7 /10 | 3
CGY :: 7 / 9 | 2
CBJ :: 8 / 8 | 0
VAN :: 7 / 8 | 1
EDM :: 6 / 5 |-1
TOR :: 9 / 8 |-1

Since Boston was eliminated after they played their final game, there are only 13 teams to compare. Of those 13, 6 performed worse than their season average (but only to a maximum of 2 points); 5 performed better than their season average (but only to a maximum of 3 points); and 2 performed at their season average.

If tanking was a significant problem that could be solved by this "Gold Plan", you would expect to see more negative numbers and the differences should be a lot greater.



To increase the sample size, I stretched the numbers out over the last 10 games of the season (expected / actual | difference)...

BOS :: 11/ 7 |-4
CAR :: 10/10 | 0
OTT :: 10/11 | 1
NJD :: 10/ 9 |-1
COL :: 10/ 4 |-6
MTL :: 10/10 | 0
BUF :: 10/13 | 3
ARI :: 10/ 9 |-1
WPG :: 10/14 | 4
CGY :: 9 / 9 | 0
CBJ :: 9 /10 | 1
VAN :: 9 / 9 | 0
EDM :: 9 / 9 | 0
TOR :: 8 / 6 |-2

The two teams with the worst performance in their last 10 games relative to their season averages were Colorado and Boston. Both teams were in a playoff spot after 72 games, so they obviously weren't tanking down the stretch.

[Jason14h]

Damn Boston tankers

[GGG]

The Wheel is the greatest system. Every 6 years you get a pick in each 5 years slot. Draft order is predetermined.

The biggest problem in hockey is there is a 3 yr lag between being bad and the draft pick contributing so bad teams stock pile players.

[Go_Flames4ever]

How about something like this? Providing the best odds to teams in the middle of the non-playoff teams, something like a bell curve. A lottery for top-3.

30th - 2%
29th - 2%
28th - 4%
27th - 6%
26th - 9%
25th - 12%
24th - 15%
23rd - 15%
22nd - 12%
21st - 9%
20th - 6%
19th - 4%
18th - 2%
17th - 2%

This would provide teams incentives to not bottom-out and tank for best odds, but rather, have them play competitively to win to get to better odds. You may think teams would try to stay at that 7-8th spot for best odds, but you can't control all the other teams around you, so your best bet is just try to win. Bottom 3 teams start winning and that could jeopardize the teams with the best odd. Teams near the playoff battle would not want to drop as their goal would be to make the dance.

It could eliminate tanking with something to win for - better odds.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

How do you expect a bad team to be good/ improve if they loose the even odds lottery a few times ?

Shrewd management. Maybe teams wouldn't be so complacent and always take steps to make their teams better. That's why I like 10% for worst 6 teams and 5% for next 8.

or

15% for bottom 4,
7.5% for 26th-23rd,
2% for 19th-22nd
1% for 17th and 18th

Rounds 2 through 7 can follow reverse standing order. Again, shrewd management can take advantage. As we have seen, Edmonton has not made anything from their 31st OA picks.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GGG

The biggest problem in hockey is there is a 3 yr lag between being bad and the draft pick contributing so bad teams stock pile players.

Quoted for emphasis.

What the NHL should do is chart draft position vs. standings for (year+1), (year+), etc., figure out what the effect of a drafted player on future standings is mathematically, then rank teams based on their "projected future standings" and assign the draft order based on that, with a randomization component added to create suspense and disincentivize tanking.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by SebC

Quoted for emphasis.

What the NHL should do is chart draft position vs. standings for (year+1), (year+), etc., figure out what the effect of a drafted player on future standings is mathematically, then rank teams based on their "projected future standings" and assign the draft order based on that, with a randomization component added to create suspense and disincentivize tanking.

There are a few things they can do. One is increase the draft age to 19 or 20.

Another would be to do it similar to how they did after the season lost to the lockout. Use the standings for the previous 5 years, each team starts with 5 balls and they subtract one for each time a team made the playoffs, add one for each time they missed the playoffs and remove one for every top 3 pick. I think this could somewhat achieve what you were going for.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

I think this could somewhat achieve what you were going for.

Basically, except I would do it like an actual control system is designed (even though this would make it opaque as heck to most fans). Instead of guessing at what the equation should be, it would be calculated from the actual data set.

Not a fan of increasing the draft age. It would address the input lag but so do other systems, and without the cost of denying the deserving young players the chance to start their careers.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by GGG

The Wheel is the greatest system. Every 6 years you get a pick in each 5 years slot. Draft order is predetermined.

The biggest problem in hockey is there is a 3 yr lag between being bad and the draft pick contributing so bad teams stock pile players.

The wheel is perhaps the worst system ever devised. It is designed to benefit top teams at the expense of rebuilding ones by ensuring great players end up on top teams. It's the complete antithesis of what the draft is meant to be.

[powderjunkie]

The thing I want to see is teams always working to be better. Any incentive to stay terrible or become even worse sucks.

[Flashpoint]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

The thing I want to see is teams always working to be better. Any incentive to stay terrible or become even worse sucks.

This sort of sums the whole deal up.

Objective:
Every team should be trying to get every point they can.

Problem:
Winning prevents a high draft pick so there is incentive to lose.

Solution:
Winning should count towards a high draft pick.

The Gold plan fails for the same reason the "loser point" failed. The goal of giving both teams 1 point at the end of regulation was to encourage teams to "go for it" and not play for the tie. It utterly failed, and you now see teams dogging it for the last half of the 3rd to secure it.

Intention good, execution poor.

As others have pointed out - the Gold plan encourages teams to go into the tank even FASTER than they normally would.

Flashpoint's "Fastest Horse in the Glue Factory" Plan:
Draft position is determined by highest winning percentage against the other non-playoff teams.

• You don't know who those teams will be until the end of the season.
• The number of games played and time you were eliminated is irrelevant.
• Beating other bottom feeders directly benefits you.

Problem:
Teams closest to the playoffs but failing will naturally have the best winning percentage vs bottom feeders. The truly horrible teams (Oilers who actually are trying to not tank but are simply no good) will be at the bottom of the draft order.

Solution
Keep the current lottery odds to preserve the random element.

Every team will be attempting to win every game up till April. Zero incentive to tank. Even the worst non playoff team has a shot at #1, and it increases the more they win. Team closest to the playoffs still only has a 20% shot, so talent is spread out.