[Trade] Canucks acquire B. Sutter + 3rd for Bonino, Clendening, + 2nd. UPD: Sutter signed.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by firecenter

Lets not let our hate bias effect our judgement on players here.

I'm not. Had the trade been reversed I'd be cursing Pittsburgh for letting the Canucks win the trade.

I think Bonino is a slightly better player then Sutter. Truthfully I've never thought highly of either but Bonino wins it by a hair. That Pitt got the better draft pick and a serviceable depth defender is just the icing on the cake.

[Benched]

If Bonino > Sutter or Sutter > Bonino....it's by a hair either way. The 'secondary skillset'/'intangible'/'potential given X opportunity' doesn't dramatically increase or decrease their value in my eyes, so it's basically a wash there.

The fact that a higher draft pick and decent prospect went back to Pittsburgh makes them the clear winner.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Bouma's p/60 was 1.97 last year. That's quite good. The previous 3 seasons it was 1.05, .7, an .64. So either you think he suddenly got much, much better at producing offense 5 on 5, or he probably produced at a higher level than his actual skill last year, and is due to return to Earth this season, as guys do every single year.

Which is why you usually want to look over several years to assess performance.

This is why I don't post in this forum hardly at all. A lot of you guys try to just tear down evidence without even attempting to understand the context, or worse, dismissing it.

There's some irony in your post, because there are different ways to interpret data.

Re: Bouma's P/60 numbers quoted above:

a) Last year's number is not sustainable because it's higher than previous years. He will come back down to earth, as you say. This is a possibility.

b) His P/60 has been trending up over the last 4 years as he has been developing as a young player. This is a possibility.

The fact that you unequivocally dismiss any notion of the possibility of interpretation b), and condescendingly compare those who don't agree with your subjective opinion to anti-vaccination advocates, is probably the reason that you feel there's so much vitriol towards you.

I look at that data and think "wow, Bouma's trending in the right direction in his development, that's great" and also "there's a possibility next year he could regress some". My issue with an immoveable belief in interpretation a) above is that it's almost like saying "good numbers are bad", which doesn't feel right to me.

So how do you reconcile your view of Bouma's numbers in the context of being a young, developing player? It seems to me like looking at those four numbers and saying he's due to return back to Earth next season, is in itself lacking the context that you're admonishing this forum for having a lack of.

PS. I think partly people have gotten annoyed with you this past season because posters like me take threads off topic in replying to your posts, so every thread turns into an advanced stats debate. Sorry about that.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I didn't unequivocally dismiss the possibility of b)... I didn't dismiss anything. I suggested it's unlikely that his ability to produce at evens suddenly DRAMATICALLY increased. It's not unreasonable to think that he's developed over time at all. I don't think it's likely he's really a 2 p/60 player simply because history has showed that sort of outlier performance to be precisely that in the vast majority of cases, and I do think some regression is to be expected. Whether it's dramatic (i.e. he reverts back to a ~1p/60 guy) or less dramatic (he continues his upward progress and settles in somewhere above 2013-2014's 1.09) probably depends on a number of factors that I haven't got the time to look into in detail, but I agree with your post generally.

EDIT: Actually, going back to the original argument made by diane_phaneuf IIRC (something along the lines of "LOL Bouma was 74rd in p/60 last year at evens so your stat sucks because Bouma is not a top 6 player), your point supports my contention. Either that number last year was an outlier and he's not a 1.97 p/60 guy, in which case it isn't representative of anything long-term and the argument was silly, or it IS his actual skill level at this stage, in which case... yeah, they SHOULD be giving him more ice. 1.97 p/60 production is top 6 production, easily.

[Blarg]

Originally Posted by Blarg

I thought Vancouver was looking for cap space to sign baerchi, now their taking on salary and re-signing?

Whelp, shows what I know

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I didn't unequivocally dismiss the possibility of b)... I didn't dismiss anything. I suggested it's unlikely that his ability to produce at evens suddenly DRAMATICALLY increased. It's not unreasonable to think that he's developed over time at all. I don't think it's likely he's really a 2 p/60 player simply because history has showed that sort of outlier performance to be precisely that in the vast majority of cases, and I do think some regression is to be expected. Whether it's dramatic (i.e. he reverts back to a ~1p/60 guy) or less dramatic (he continues his upward progress and settles in somewhere above 2013-2014's 1.09) probably depends on a number of factors that I haven't got the time to look into in detail, but I agree with your post generally.

EDIT: Actually, going back to the original argument made by diane_phaneuf IIRC (something along the lines of "LOL Bouma was 74rd in p/60 last year at evens so your stat sucks because Bouma is not a top 6 player), your point supports my contention. Either that number last year was an outlier and he's not a 1.97 p/60 guy, in which case it isn't representative of anything long-term and the argument was silly, or it IS his actual skill level at this stage, in which case... yeah, they SHOULD be giving him more ice. 1.97 p/60 production is top 6 production, easily.

umm no, and it wasn't exactly a hard to comprehend point either, you quoted it too, now you are trying to dismiss it offhand condescendingly

last year Sean Monahan was 150th at pts/60 min, Gaudreau was 115th, Lance Bouma was 68th!, Alex Ovechkin was 107th you can't cherry pick stats like that which dont tell the whole story or should Lance Bouma be getting top line minutes in Calgary ahead of Monahan and Gaudreau?

[Geeoff]

I don't know much about the players other than stat watching. I thought Sutter was a decent 2-way player. As a personal preference, I like having a defensive minded guy on the 3rd line. But...Sutter's advanced stats do look pretty terrible.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Diane: I did correct you; Bouma wasn't 68th in p/60 by any metric as far as I can tell. But to respond directly to the bolded: no stat tells the whole story, but p/60 over a decent sample should give you a pretty good indication (at least a rebuttable presumption) that someone is better than someone else at producing at even strength. At least when there's a DRAMATIC difference, as there is between Bonino and Sutter.

Rebutting the presumption does not entail finding outliers, it entails doing what you did later, as an example: point to Sutter's linemates as a reason that might drag on his p/60, or quality of competition, or zone starts, or maybe his on ice shooting percentage was super low, etc etc etc... you're unlikely to find a mountain of evidence that would account for the difference, but those are the things that come to mind.

[Textcritic]

This is a thoroughly underwhelming trade.

The fact that Benning has designated Sutter as a "foundational player" should be of great concern to Canucks fans. As a Flames fan, I am pretty happy about this.

[Resolute 14]

A castle's walls may serve as the foundation of a shanty town, but you still live in a shanty town.

[Monkey_Fracas]

Not a home run trade by any means but I think this addresses a few trouble spots for the Canucks.

While the offensive stats between the 2 are pretty comparable I think Sutter improves on Bonino by giving them more size, better faceoff ability, a right handed shot at center, and (most obviously imo) more speed.

Bonino had a nice shot and was defensively aware but he had trouble winning the "big" faceoffs and was an awfully slow skater. I think his foot speed especially got exposed versus the younger, faster Flames last post season.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Monkey_Fracas

Not a home run trade by any means but I think this addresses a few trouble spots for the Canucks...

The problem is not the trade itself. The problem is how the trade is being sold and the mounting expectations of management and the fanbase. Sutter is a fine player, but he is not a player around whom one should build a team. The way that Benning talks about him leaves one with the impression that he is being viewed as a catalytic piece—as a part of the team's core, and THAT IS problematic.

The Canucks need offense in the worst way. They desperately need high end prospects and offensively gifted young players. Brandon Sutter addresses none of these critical deficiencies, and yet is being billed as a "foundational player." If the expectation moving forward is for Horvat and Sutter to slot in the #1 and #2 centre roles in the near future (and this is precisely what appears to be the plan), the Canucks are in trouble.

[JohnnyB]

This move seems lateral for the Canucks and bad for me as a fan of Sutter.

The Canucks may be tumbling in terms of team quality, but they've made some good moves in becoming less ######y by getting rid of Kesler and Bieksa and by bringing in Sutter.

[TX_Flame]

I think it's time for somebody, probably a Pens fan, to come up with a new version of that video with the gap toothed guy laughing his head off. I'm sure it won't be as good as "Dougie for peanuts", though.

[dash_pinched]

NEWS 1130 SportsVerified account ‏@NEWS1130Sports

Agent Peter Fish says Nick Bonino was "shocked and stunned" by the trade from the #Canucks to the Penguins. He just bought a home in Van.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by dash_pinched

NEWS 1130 SportsVerified account ‏@NEWS1130Sports

Agent Peter Fish says Nick Bonino was "shocked and stunned" by the trade from the #Canucks to the Penguins. He just bought a home in Van.

Vancouver has no respect for players as ppl. The team is building a rep for a lack of loyalty. I like it!

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The problem is not the trade itself. The problem is how the trade is being sold and the mounting expectations of management and the fanbase. Sutter is a fine player, but he is not a player around whom one should build a team. The way that Benning talks about him leaves one with the impression that he is being viewed as a catalytic piece—as a part of the team's core, and THAT IS problematic.

The Canucks need offense in the worst way. They desperately need high end prospects and offensively gifted young players. Brandon Sutter addresses none of these critical deficiencies, and yet is being billed as a "foundational player." If the expectation moving forward is for Horvat and Sutter to slot in the #1 and #2 centre roles in the near future (and this is precisely what appears to be the plan), the Canucks are in trouble.

It seems like management and possibly ownership still feel like this team can win now or at least soon.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Really the counting stats for Bonino and Sutter are identical (actually favour Bonino) and the advanced stats favour Bonino. Not even sure there is as much of a defensive difference between the two as you would expect.

Not to mention that there should be benefit of playing behind Malkin and Crosby 5v5 (with PP and SH time being relatively equal).

Bonino: 13:05 ES TOI
Sutter: 13:29 ES TOI

Bonino: 34 ES Points
Sutter: 24 ES Points

Bonino: PP TOI 1:51
Sutter: PP TOI 1:31

Bonino: 5 PP Points
Sutter: 5 PP Points

Bonino: 52 GA (13 PP GA)
Sutter: 51 GA (18 PP GA)

Bonino: 1:57 SH TOI
Sutter: 2:18 SH TOI

The fact that Bonino has produced more the last couple years, the cheaper contract, and the advanced stats make this look like a steal for Pitts before you consider they got a good prospect and a 2nd in return.

This could turn into epic theft.



I'll laugh my friggin ass off if Benning gives this guy anywhere near $5M

[ricardodw]

Sutter's linemates in Pit - Nick Spaling 2.2 M and Steve Downie 1.75M

Bonio's linemates Higgins 2.5 M and Vrbata 5M

Sutter got 21 goals playing behind Crosby and Malkin with Downie and Spaling as linemates. The #1 by TOI opponent he plays against Tavares.


Bonino's #1 opponent Mark Arcobello.


Bonino was overmatched by Stajan and Backlund in the playoffs.

The Flames will miss him.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The Canucks need offense in the worst way. They desperately need high end prospects and offensively gifted young players. Brandon Sutter addresses none of these critical deficiencies, and yet is being billed as a "foundational player."

I was going to respond that they also need toughness in the worst way and Sutter should help with that. With a seconds pause I'm not so sure anymore.

Sure, if they could add half a dozen big physical guys it would help, but it would also mean they would have to transform the way the whole team plays.

The Canucks are not a team that excels in physical play, they're a team that lives on skill, speed, puck possession etc. For physicality they need guys that also bring possession and skill with them. It might be that with different linemates Sutter can bring more than he's shown in Pittsburgh, but I doubt it.

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Bonino was overmatched by Stajan and Backlund in the playoffs.

The Flames will miss him.

I wouldn't worry about a matchup between Sutter and Backlund or Stajan either.