Summer 2014 Prospect Ranking Poll Rd2

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

I wouldn't limit his ceiling as he just gets better with every year he plays.

You'll get no arguments from me, especially since defensemen are really hard to predict.

I also thought he was our best defenceman at the World Juniors considering the main job of a defenceman is to play defence.

I think as the game goes forward all defensemen will be required to be better skaters and more active with the puck, and the role of the traditional stay-at-home guys will be somewhat smaller.

That said, really good shutdown players will always be very valuable, especially in the playoffs.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by RyZ

Sven has the same PPG as guys like Huberdau, Schiefle and Strome from his draft year over 50 or so NHL games. To think that guys like Granlund or Poirier could be ahead of him is rediculous. Sven is arguably already a top 6 NHL forward offensively.

8 goals and 24 points in 51 games makes him a top six forward in the NHL? Maybe this is why there are more than a few people down on the kid? A top six forward? That is is just a rediculous [sic] thing to say.

If Sven were already a top six forward in the NHL he would have gone down to the AHL and ripped it a new #######, not score 13 goals and 29 points in 41 games. To contrast Baertschi's performance Tyler Toffoli scored 43 goals and 74 points in 76 games in the AHL, 15 goals and 23 points in 15 games this past season. That is a what a top nine player in the NHL does in the AHL. Jordan Eberle scored 25 goals and 51 points in 34 games in the AHL during the lockout. That's what a top six player from the NHL does in the AHL. Baertschi has potential, but he really needs to start living up to it. He certainly isn't anywhere near a top six forward in the NHL, in any shape of form.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I predict a lot more arguments in round 3!

I will be very interested to see where they all fall in the ranking. There is going to be a lot of movement in the rankings I think as compared to last year.

[The Fonz]

Are people forgetting that Baertschi was equally as impressive in his 20 yo AHL season as Granlund was this year in his 20 yo AHL season? Sven was a .5 ppg in 20 NHL games that year too.

The kid had a poor season, but it's not like Granlund walked in and accomplished something that Baertschi has yet to do.

I still believe Sven's got the higher ceiling. Full disclosure though, I've only seen Granlund in a few games.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Papi34

I feel Sven is a classic case of lost shine with new toys. Everyone wants to crown Bennett because hes the new shiny toy yet Sven was drafted 7 spots later than Sam and showed tremendous skill in jr and the ability to compete in the NHL and AHL, kid is still 21 and has a never quit attitude and will work hard to get back to the NHL. I think he impresses people this camp and makes the team.

Its a tough debate because they are at different stages of their careers but i still take Sven who has shown me more at a professional level. I agree that Bennett probably has a higher ceiling its all how you view this poll. As of now i believe that Sven is the more promising prospect but that also includes 3 years of development. I have no doubt that Bennett should and will be better in the long run but we are talking prospects right now and the way i interpret that is who will have the biggest impact on the Calgary Flames soonest, to me that is Sven

Sven was always a 7 in a sea of 3s.

Now that the organization has some 10s, the lustre has understandably worn off.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Sven was always a 7 in a sea of 3s.

Now that the organization has some 10s, the lustre has understandably worn off.

Disagree.

I remember TSN had Sven being the calder favorite over Schultz and Yakupov prior to the shortened 2012/13 season. It wasn't just Flames fans that were excited about him.

I'm still confident he develops into a 2nd line LW. I used to view him as a potential 1st line LW though, so his potential has regressed a bit in my mind.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I voted Ortio, because he showed a tremendous amount at the NHL level last year.

Wotherspoon looked surprisingly good, but Ortio looked like a real pro, despite the cruddy team in front of him.

Ortio looks really good.

I don't know anything about Bennett other than his high draft position and the pull-up.

What exactly did Ortio show a tremendous amount of at the NHL level? He was slightly better than Berra, which isn't saying a whole lot. He's young and I still have high hopes, but his NHL stint wasn't some huge success, IMO. At least he didn't consistently give up the lead late in games.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

^ Granlund belongs in tier 2. If you consider top 6 "impact", then I think he has as great a chance to become a top 6 forward as Baertschi. Has an NHL shot, bigger than Sven, and plays a grittier and fuller game already. That likely in part because of his time playing against men overseas.

Seems his record breaking rookie year is kind of going under the radar around here. Maybe because we've seen less of him, his potential hasn't quite been realized by fans/posters.

I don't consider all top6 forwards impact. Guys like Stempniak or Glencross could play top 6 minutes on many teams but are not an impact players.

But as I was saying the really great thing is that there is a debate.

There are 9 guys who I am sure could be 1st or 2nd line players. I think of Granlund as a potential 2nd/3rd line player so he is behind them.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Sven was always a 7 in a sea of 3s.

Now that the organization has some 10s, the lustre has understandably worn off.

Sven has and remains a solid 8 imo.

The luster has worn off because fans forget that development isn't ever a continued upward trend.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by #-3

I don't consider all top6 forwards impact. Guys like Stempniak or Glencross could play top 6 minutes on many teams but are not an impact players.

But as I was saying the really great thing is that there is a debate.

There are 9 guys who I am sure could be 1st or 2nd line players. I think of Granlund as a potential 2nd/3rd line player so he is behind them.

Granlund's game isn't really suited to grinding. He plays a skilled,, top two line game. I think he's a top 6 guy or bust. And he's really really good.

You should have him in that 2nd tier IMO.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Sven has and remains a solid 8 imo.

The luster has worn off because fans forget that development isn't ever a continued upward trend.

Sven wasn't given a fair shake last year. His underlying numbers were ok and he was putting up points at a decent rate. It's no surprise that as soon as Sven went down, Monahan was struggling to push the puck in the right direction.

Seems a lot of people forget that Sven was playing a hybrid winger/center role when he first started the season. Often being he player to rotate down low in the defensive zone to cover Monahan.

Hartley and Burkes assessment of his defensive game was baffling as he was doing quite well at generating and preventing SOG in his short stint this last season.

[FireGilbert]

Another easy one. There is some merit to not putting an OHL player too high but Bennett is the best 18 year old prospect the Flames have ever had. He had dominating stats in the OHL and many scouts ranked him as their top draft pick. I would even consider him a close second to Gaudreau with their first line potential being the same but Johnny getting the nod because of success in an NHL game and the World Championships.

The 3rd round is going to be a very tough choice between Baertschi and Granlund as both have a similar potential of 2nd or borderline 1st liners. They have also both had minor success in the NHL and could be within a year a making the Flames for good. I am leaning towards Baertschi because he many have a slightly higher ceiling but I don't know if this is enough to cancel out Granlund outplaying him last season.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by codynw

What exactly did Ortio show a tremendous amount of at the NHL level? He was slightly better than Berra, which isn't saying a whole lot. He's young and I still have high hopes, but his NHL stint wasn't some huge success, IMO. At least he didn't consistently give up the lead late in games.

Ortio was playing in the NHL as a 22-year-old, and didn't look so far out of place. That on its own is tremendous.

[N26]

The lead is insurmountable and all the discussion is about other prospects. I think it is time to call this round.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Granlund's game isn't really suited to grinding. He plays a skilled,, top two line game. I think he's a top 6 guy or bust. And he's really really good.

You should have him in that 2nd tier IMO.

I don't think all 3rd liners are grinders, it depends on the make up of your team. I could see Granlund becoming a Matt Stajan type player who is generally a 2 way 3rd line center. I could never see him as a 4th liner. And I don't expect him to develop into a 1st, so I think he projects to a 2nd/3rd liner. And think guys like Poirier, Klimchuk, Beartschi, Wootherspoon and Seiloff have a better chance of being 2nd liners.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by N26

I think it is time to call this round.

Sorry, Bingo just went on his honeymoon. Round 3 commences in 2 weeks.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Read Only

I don't think Bingo put in strict guidelines and that he leaves it up to each individual on how to decide.

We have obviously seen they are different views on how to evaluate who is the best.

For me, as someone mentioned earlier, I think the easiest and best approach is if I had to choose 1 to keep who would it be. Or would I trade player A for player B.

Exactly ... I think this polling is much more interesting when you see all of the different ways that the poll itself is interpreted. Makes it way more interesting.

I said it in the round 1 discussion as well ... but I pick based on who I think we will look back on as the best all time Flames player on a list of players that aren't even Flames yet.

That to me is the final and most important way to judge prospects and then players (and drafting ability).

[SebC]

Originally Posted by DJones

What exactly are we ranking? The ceiling of the prospect? Where they are now?

For me: expected value. Integral of potential times probability of that potential.

Of course, I'm not actually doing any integration, it's an estimate.

Another thing for me is that I'm only considering potential above replacement level. A guy who makes the NHL but as the type of player who can be acquired as a league-minimum UFA holds no more value than a guy who busts completely.

[dying4acup]

My rankings are done in the following way (and each round is re-done because of this):

Imagine if every flames prospect (and only flames prospects) were draft elgible with their current experiences and age,on the 16 of July, and the Canucks and oilers were drafting 2 and 3 (followed by the rest of the NHL).

Who would I HAVE TO HAVE?!?

Who would I HAVE TO HAVE before those crappy franchises had their shots at them.

At this point in time I'd take the next Gilmour (Bennett) over Baertschi (Ales Hemski is is downside right now to me) or any other flames prospect.

It's going to be hard for a defenseman in the Flames organization to get to that point (probably Sieloff at around 10) or a goalie (Ortio/Gillies) to be my number 1 pick until we are 12-15 deep (based on Flames prospect depth alone).

Feel free to critique my method, but that's my method.

My picks so far:
Gaudreau. If I had to pick between Bennett and Gaudreau, and know the other one was going to be an oiler or Canuck, I'd take Johnny Hockey. I could not stand the thought of Martin St. Louis or Theoren Fleury going to one of those organizations. I'd let them take Gilmour instead. (If that makes sense).

Then in round 2 I take Bennett. I'd rather have the next Gilmour than the next Hemsky (Baertschi). Baertschi could be the next Hejduk, the next Kovalev.