CP Mafia 2 - Town Square Showdown - Game Over

[GP_Matt]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Another thing I have noticed is agulati, GP_Matt, SP, and Aeneas were all early to start calling people mafia.

I did call out UndercoverBrother at the start but it was merely a dig because he called me out in the signup thread before the game started. It was also one of the first posts in the thread.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

I did call out UndercoverBrother at the start but it was merely a dig because he called me out in the signup thread before the game started. It was also one of the first posts in the thread.

I stand by that post.........

[GP_Matt]

We got lucky last time with the first few mafia hits but we were also unlucky in that the mafia never got ActiveStick randomly and he never hit the mafia over night.

Our odds of randomly hitting the mafia today are 8 in 30. The odds of each mafia group randomly hitting the other group are each 4 in 30.

I can't recall my statistics courses but I think that is close to a 50% chance of randomly killing a mafia on the first night.

[strombad]

Alright, let me jump in with a bit of theory here.

Voting based on inactivity worked great last time. We (for the most part) were all rookies so I think a lot of people weren't quite sure how to play. We got extremely lucky.

The difference now is that this time at least some of the mafia have either: A. Played before or B. Watched the last game. This game is about learning, do you really think everyone involved in the mafia is going to pipe down and chill out based on the danger that put them in last time? No. It was pretty clear that being vocal is the best "defence".

Now, here is the other side of my theory. Personally, I think there is absolutely no way that mafia aren't being at least somewhat active based on the last game, it would be stupid to just sit back and watch the same thing happen all over again. That being said, I'm currently most suspicious of Hockeyguy15, and quite frankly, I think he's the best option to vote out (and here's why):

- Advocating for "inactive" voting (which makes no sense to suggest considering it ignores the mafia's ability to learn, might it be alright after day 2 or 3? Of course, but mafia are absolutely going to have a presence on day 1 after last game)
- Casting suspicion on multiple people (which after 1 real time day serves only to attack people during their feeling out process)
- High post count, low value count (no offence HG15, but you're just throwing a ton of stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks. On day 1 that's a silly thing to do, and it didn't exactly help last time)

If HG15 is a townsperson, then that's too bad, but his high post count last time wasn't crucial to victory and he's now adamantly going after inactive posters (which, if mafia would buy him multiple game days if people believed him, considering how high his post count actually is and the fact that he would NEVER be considered an inactive poster). Trying to lead the game THIS heavily after only 24 hours or so is a great idea if you're management.

Sorry bro.

Vote: Hockeyguy15

[bizaro86]

I went through and counted posts. If we're going to decide based on post numbers, I thought that would be useful info.

19 Hockeyguy1510 kermitology8 undercoverbrother8 Street Pharmacist7 dsavillian7 GP_Matt7 CaptainCrunch5 bizaro865 Delgar4 ineedanother4 Timbo4 GGG 3 Rathji3strombad3 Aeneas2 flameswin2 starseed2 devo222 agulati2 Baxter Renegade2 HalifaxDrunk2 Lego Man2 DropIt1hmmhmmcamo1CofR1 transplant991 Crazy Bacon Legs1 activeStick1 Oling_Roachinen1 Completely

[bizaro86]

19
Hockeyguy15

10kermitology

8 undercoverbrother

8 Street Pharmacist

7 dsavillian

7 GP_Matt

7 CaptainCrunch

5bizaro86

5 Delgar

4 ineedanother

4 Timbo

4GGG

3Rathji

3strombad

3 Aeneas

2flameswin

2 starseed

2 devo22

2 agulati

2 Baxter Renegade

2 HalifaxDrunk

2 Lego Man

2 DropIt

1hmmhmmcamo

1CofR

1 transplant99

1 Crazy Bacon Legs

1 activeStick

1 Oling_Roachinen

1 Completely

Sorry, last version was hard to read, but didn't want to edit it, hope this works better format wise

[Hockeyguy15]

In all fairness I am not only suggesting to vote based on in-activity, I also said that we could vote based on contribution.

I know people are saying that day 1 is too early to have valid contribution, but I disagree. Strombad you don't think casting suspicion on multiple people is productive, but I think it is. People are more likely to slip up when their back is against the wall.

If you guys want to vote me out that's fine, as I said before I know being this vocal this early will make me a target and I just hope that I will provide some insight down the road. I just heavily disagree with this totally random approach, as I feel that I have identified some odd behaviour early on.

[Lego Man]

I think I have found a clue to out some Mafia Scum fellow towns-people!

I've generated a random number:


And then Randomized the list of players, that many times.


Coincidence? I think not.

Vote: Completely

[Mazrim]

If you want to see post counts, just the click on the post count on the thread index and it will give you everyone's count plus a link to see each user's posts in the thread. No need to manually count!

[starseed]

Originally Posted by strombad

- Advocating for "inactive" voting (which makes no sense to suggest considering it ignores the mafia's ability to learn, might it be alright after day 2 or 3? Of course, but mafia are absolutely going to have a presence on day 1 after last game)

Exactly. I think it doesnt make sense to just say 'well, they are inactive, so may as well get rid of them'... because our #1 priority is to eliminate mafia, not inactive people. And again, mafia know who each other are, and can communicate to each other the importance to be active, which would increase the likelihood that we would have lynched a townsperson. (but I guess it is moot now that everyone has posted)

[Timbo]

I like that Hockeyguy is shaking the tree
However I do think he might be doing so a little
Over zealous which gives me some suspicion.

I quite frankly am looking towards mafia to post an early pattern of deflective
Meaningless posts that keep a player just below the radar. Then I will look for random unwarranted accusations.
Hockeyguy fits this profile however He is still consistent in his gameplay from last game.
Right now I am still leaning towards him being a Townie and and an asset.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

If you want to see post counts, just the click on the post count on the thread index and it will give you everyone's count plus a link to see each user's posts in the thread. No need to manually count!

Thanks Mazrim.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

I think I have found a clue to out some Mafia Scum fellow towns-people!

I've generated a random number:


And then Randomized the list of players, that many times.


Coincidence? I think not.

Vote: Completely

Best post/approach yet!

Awesome.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Timbo

I like that Hockeyguy is shaking the tree
However I do think he might be doing so a little
Over zealous which gives me some suspicion.

I quite frankly am looking towards mafia to post an early pattern of deflective
Meaningless posts that keep a player just below the radar. Then I will look for random unwarranted accusations.
Hockeyguy fits this profile however He is still consistent in his gameplay from last game.
Right now I am still leaning towards him being a Townie and and an asset.

Its tough on first day to see deflection unless you generally point at someone and shout Je Cuse.

Right now Stombad and HG have put themselves pretty firmly in the spotlight. Its admirable, but you rarely see panic moves in the first day.

while the Townies play an individual game, you almost have to look at the Mafia groups as one individual each since they should be on the same page. So they will probably be willing to throw a member under the bus to keep attention off of them.

What will be interesting if this lasts a while before lynching is who comes out in defense of who. Of if anyone comes out in defense or if everyone continues to glide under the radar because the numbers aren't to the point where every life counts.

The other thing that I will be looking for I guess is if, since I'm assuming that the two mobs groups are separate and not communicating if they try to swing the kill vote one way or the other so there are two separate night kills. It doesn't benefit the mobs to kill the same person, since their primary goal has to be to reduce the townies to a non entity voting wise.

Right now HG and Strombad are firmly in the radar, and acting like conversation drivers, if we were to pick one and stack some votes, it would be interesting to see what the reaction is, remember we can always unvote before the midnight hour.

[CaptainCrunch]

With that said, and just to see if I can shake the tree a bit. I do like Strombad's logic in terms of players being smarter this time with inactivity, I admire Hockeyguy15's reasoning but I'm playing a hunch here that the conversation could get more interesting if there's a vote stack.


Vote Hockeyguy15

[strombad]

Well, considering the idea that if HG15 goes home and turns out to be a townie then I'm probably a natural target on day 2, I'd be fine going first if it revealed voting patterns and helped townies in the long run.

I that said, CC could easily be mafia, I could be wrong about HG15, and he's turning the focus onto us being two "high profile" players (though to be frank, I've made 3 posts, and 2 of them were Nic Cage, so I'd hardly say it's comparable or "conversation driving" to HG15's 18 posts of mostly game related stuff).

[HalifaxDrunk]

It is a good strategy for HG to step up, either his is Town and helps lead to victory or he is a snake leading lemmings off a cliff.

Either option will eventually lend itself to a "I told ya so" or "I played you fools". Now to only decide if he is trustworthy or misleading.

flameswin throwing out the vote for yourself was really strange, I know it was supposed to be a joke but that's just weird.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Further to that, Flameswin, has 3 posts, one of which says "vote for Flameswin".

For a guy that was chomping at the bit to play he certainly hasn't taken part. Makes me wonder if he is now a Mafia, and can't figure out how to play it....

Uh oh!

[strombad]

The other issue is, HG15 has already been pretty vocal about how players "respond" to having votes cast on them. So if he IS mafia, then he's obviously thinking very carefully about his response.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by HalifaxDrunk

It is a good strategy for HG to step up, either his is Town and helps lead to victory or he is a snake leading lemmings off a cliff.

Either option will eventually lend itself to a "I told ya so" or "I played you fools". Now to only decide if he is trustworthy or misleading.

flameswin throwing out the vote for yourself was really strange, I know it was supposed to be a joke but that's just weird.

The Flameswin thing is weird, but if he's overwhelmed by the game and asking for assisted suicide its a thing that can come later, if it was a joke, then its a strange way to call attention to himself.

Either way, it could almost be a clever insanity defense.