GMs to discuss changing Draft Lottery Odds

[Locke]

Like I mentioned before, there have to be checks and balances.

Right now there is no risk, only reward. If you suck the worst then you get to pick first and your doofus of a GM goes to the podium with a crap-eating grin on his face.

There need to be consequences to constantly sucking otherwise it'll just keep happening.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

I don't know if Edmonton is really tanking per say or trying to lose or if they just have awful management and development of prospects leading to their continual awful placement. I don't think that the team is intentionally losing, they just have an inability to win. This isn't based on a lack of effort it is based upon crap management.

I also think that aside from Hall they have had some pretty bad luck with #1 overall draft picks. In the past 10 years the #1 draft picks have been

MacKinnon
Yakupov
Nugent-Hopkins
Hall
Tavares
Stamkos
Kane
E. Johnson
Crosby
Ovechkin

Yakupov and Nugent-Hopkins are likely the two worst players on that list, the Oilers have sucked at the worst possible time in terms of franchise players being available. At least in the case of the Blackhawks and Penguins they were able to select franchise players, the Oilers not so much.

[Saqe]

Haven't read the previous pages but,

Just lower the odds for the bottom teams to win it. At the moment there is about a 77% chance for one of the bottom five teams to win the lottery, lower that to 60% and problem solved.

When none of the bottom teams have a significant chance of winning it (it isn't good even at 25%) there shouldn't incentives to suck. And if they continue to suck year after year, fine. You can't punish people for incompetence just like it's not illegal to be stupid.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Mean Mr. Mustard

I don't know if Edmonton is really tanking per say or trying to lose or if they just have awful management and development of prospects leading to their continual awful placement. I don't think that the team is intentionally losing, they just have an inability to win. This isn't based on a lack of effort it is based upon crap management.

I also think that aside from Hall they have had some pretty bad luck with #1 overall draft picks. In the past 10 years the #1 draft picks have been

MacKinnon
Yakupov
Nugent-Hopkins
Hall
Tavares
Stamkos
Kane
E. Johnson
Crosby
Ovechkin

Yakupov and Nugent-Hopkins are likely the two worst players on that list, the Oilers have sucked at the worst possible time in terms of franchise players being available. At least in the case of the Blackhawks and Penguins they were able to select franchise players, the Oilers not so much.

So what you're saying is the Oilers can't even suck properly? They suck at sucking.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Mean Mr. Mustard

I don't know if Edmonton is really tanking per say or trying to lose or if they just have awful management and development of prospects leading to their continual awful placement. I don't think that the team is intentionally losing, they just have an inability to win. This isn't based on a lack of effort it is based upon crap management.

I also think that aside from Hall they have had some pretty bad luck with #1 overall draft picks. In the past 10 years the #1 draft picks have been

MacKinnon
Yakupov
Nugent-Hopkins
Hall
Tavares
Stamkos
Kane
E. Johnson
Crosby
Ovechkin

Yakupov and Nugent-Hopkins are likely the two worst players on that list, the Oilers have sucked at the worst possible time in terms of franchise players being available. At least in the case of the Blackhawks and Penguins they were able to select franchise players, the Oilers not so much.

I agree that they missed out on some gems, but it is also symptomatic of their developmental decisions regarding those players. On other teams, those players could have thrived (or at least done better).

[Locke]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I agree that they missed out on some gems, but it is also symptomatic of their developmental decisions regarding those players. On other teams, those players could have thrived (or at least done better).

I agree, but its the difference of them being complimentary pieces as opposed to Franchise players. They got drafted and thrown to the wolves without any help.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

...Even if you attribute their success to high draft picks, for every "Pittsburgh", there is an Islanders, Columbus, Edmonton, Florida or Atlanta who didn't have the same success, or a Detroit that has had success despite never having many consecutive high picks...

Historically speaking, though, Detroit never starts their impressive recent dominance without drafting Steve Yzerman or Joe Murphy. Similarly, the Quebec/Denver franchise does not taste tremendous success in the nineties without Sakic, and the products of trades involving other top picks Lindros and Sundin. Of course there is Chicago with Toews and Kane. These were all terrible franchises who improved as a direct result of their ability to select at the top of the draft. Top picks matter.

My preference would be a modified version of the current format. I think it is probably too tall an order to expect immediate improvement from teams who select first overall, so I have no problem with teams doing so in back-to-back years. But no more than two first picks in consecutive years. Once a team has done so, they drop back automatically to the #4 spot. I would also slightly expand the lottery, but keep it limited to only the bottom 8.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Locke

I agree, but its the difference of them being complimentary pieces as opposed to Franchise players. They got drafted and thrown to the wolves without any help.

This itself is a pretty scathing indictment of the Oilers handling of players and development procedures. Gagner, Paajarvi-Svenson, Yakupov, Nugent-Hopkins, and J. Schultz were essentially handed top line minutes and expectations straight out of their first NHL camps, as if management and the coaches honestly believed that their draft status (or UFA status in Schultz's case) was an indication of fulfilled potential.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

So what you're saying is the Oilers can't even suck properly? They suck at sucking.

That is true. They have been able to draft complimentary players but no franchise players to build around, the closest that they have is Hall who I tend to like more than most here. The Penguins have Crosby and Malkin; and the Blackhawks have Kane and Toews; Tampa has Hedman and Stamkos... The Oilers haven't been able to draft the same elite level of players. The Oilers are now stuck in the worst possible spot of being in the 6-10 range, where the odds of selecting an elite player are much lower.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

This itself is a pretty scathing indictment of the Oilers handling of players and development procedures. Gagner, Paajarvi-Svenson, Yakupov, Nugent-Hopkins, and J. Schultz were essentially handed top line minutes and expectations straight out of their first NHL camps, as if management and the coaches honestly believed that their draft status (or UFA status in Schultz's case) was an indication of fulfilled potential.

All those players that you listed were better than any other options that existed though with the possible exception of Yakupov who is an interesting case because of the ever-present KHL risk, and they did send Paajarvi-Svensson down to the AHL in his second year much like Baertschi actually. I think that the problem that the Oilers have isn't the handling of the young players it is the fact that they haven't had a base to build around, they are throwing them to the wolves without the support required and that is more an indictment of their drafting from 2002-07 where they selected one top 6 forward (Gagner) and the two good bottom six pieces they drafted (Stoll and Cogliano) they were traded away for what amounts to a second round picks and failed dreams (Vishnovski --> Whitney --> Nothing). That is a half decade of zero production on the draft front and the Oilers are reaping what they sowed at the time. The players that they had the opportunity to select weren't as good and those that they did select were put into bad situations based on the Oilers history and poor management. Drafting players, especially in the later rounds, takes a good 3-4 years to show dividends at a minimum.

The Oilers aren't trying to suck, they suck because they have had poor management in the past and that will likely continue to be the case unless they change their management, which doesn't appear to be likely to happen.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

This itself is a pretty scathing indictment of the Oilers handling of players and development procedures. Gagner, Paajarvi-Svenson, Yakupov, Nugent-Hopkins, and J. Schultz were essentially handed top line minutes and expectations straight out of their first NHL camps, as if management and the coaches honestly believed that their draft status (or UFA status in Schultz's case) was an indication of fulfilled potential.

And this is exactly the problem. Why do people J. Schultz picked Edmonton? Because he wouldnt have to earn his minutes.

Once again we see how the Oilers do things, its flash over form. "They were drafted high, ergo they are our saviours and they had better be in the lineup or the fans will be lighting their torches."

[macrov]

Here's a cool concept: The number of points of out a playoff spot dictate your draft odds. And the entire draft becomes a lottery for non-playoff teams, instead of just for the first overall pick.

So...suppose in a league 21 teams, 5 didn't make the playoffs
8th Place team: Cancuks - Makes playoffs with 90 points

Stars: 88 points, so 2 points out
Jets: 85 points, so 5 points out
Flames: 74 points, so 16 points out
Sabres: 70 points, so 20 points out
Oilers: 69 points, so 21 points out

To figure out the odds, add up the total points out (2+5+16+20+21=64 lottery balls), and odds are based on that

For 1st Overall:
Stars - 3.13%
Jets - 7.81%
Flames - 25%
Sabres - 31.25%
Oilers - 32.81%

Suppose the flames win the lotter, then their balls come out, and the odds are as follows:

For 2nd Overall:
Stars - 4.17%
Jets - 10.42%
Sabres - 41.67%
Oilers - 43.75%

This ends the jockying for our team to finish last VS 2nd last VS 3rd last, because as long as all 3 teams are close in terms of points, they all have similar odds of getting the first overall pick.

[Enoch Root]

Macrov: that proposal promotes suckage - the worse you suck, the more your odds improve.

Completely contrary to what they are trying to accomplish.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Locke

And this is exactly the problem. Why do people J. Schultz picked Edmonton? Because he wouldnt have to earn his minutes.

Once again we see how the Oilers do things, its flash over form. "They were drafted high, ergo they are our saviours and they had better be in the lineup or the fans will be lighting their torches."

That's true. Schultz on most teams would have spent a fair amount of time in the pressbox over the past few seasons but on the Oilers he's guaranteed top 4 ice time and 1st unit powerplay minutes because players don't play based on merit in Edmonton where it's all about selling young guns to their fan base. On the flip side it's stunted his development as he's still just as much a disaster defensively as he was when he first entered the league.

[Resolute 14]

Schultz would have been an AHL player for most of the last few years on most other teams. Going to the Oilers was definitely the best option for his wallet. But a year or two in the A learning how to actually play defence would have made him a much better NHLer today. He's stunted his growth by his choice.

[pylon]

I think the fonz's method is pretty much what this is, but I just think all 16 non playoff teams should be given equal odds of the #1 pick.

[codynw]

Schultz could have been great if he'd just signed with Anaheim and spent time in the AHL.

Originally Posted by pylon

I think the fonz's method is pretty much what this is, but I just think all 16 non playoff teams should be given equal odds of the #1 pick.

No. Why should a team that finished 1 point out of 8th place have the same odds of drafting 1st overall as the team that finished last?

[codynw]

double post

[Calgary4LIfe]

I always thought that the team finishing closest to, but out of the playoffs 'deserves' something. I would like to see them get either a guaranteed 2nd or 3rd over-all pick. The rest of the teams outside the lottery get roughly the same percentages.

It helps those teams get over the 'hump' the following year hopefully.

[codynw]

You only say that because it was Calgary who finished in that position for so many years. The bad teams should get the high picks (with some sort of rule preventing too many high picks in a short time).