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Old 01-01-2013, 04:19 PM   #121
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Add in that senate dems have said that they won't vote for anything that has changes on it from the bill they approved and it looks like, once again, that the congressional republicans will once again threaten the economy with blatant stupidity.

(The bill basically moves the cuts negotiations to the debt ceiling period so as to have the cuts negotiated once instead of give me a trillion in cuts now, and another in 2 months.)
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Old 01-01-2013, 04:46 PM   #122
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long image/chart

Spoiler!
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Old 01-01-2013, 05:52 PM   #123
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long image/chart

Spoiler!

Yes, it doesn't fix all the problems. It does help a bit though. The thing is that by getting certainty into the system, you'll see more investment, which means more taxes being paid by more people, thereby lowering the deficit. Add in some well placed spending cuts, ending the Afghanistan war and some other factors, and you'll see the number on the right start to decrease rather effectively.
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Old 01-01-2013, 07:58 PM   #124
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It appears Boehner has managed to get a straight up-down vote on the unamended Senate Bill, which apparently is likely to pass:
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...te.php?ref=fpa

I'm not sure why some Republicans are opposing this anyway. They get what they wanted on taxes, which will go up only for incomes above $400,000. Below that, rates will stay at Bush II levels. And they're free to ask for more spending cuts when we do this all again in 60 days when the debt ceiling comes up AGAIN.

Their political system is broken. Hard to believe how long it's been since Congress has actually passed a budget.
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Old 01-01-2013, 08:03 PM   #125
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CNN reports seem to suggest that the vote should be in the clear tonight. Amazing how they keep pushing it to the 11th hour every time.

Fun times ahead in February and March to do this all over again. And then again for the budget.
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Old 01-01-2013, 08:04 PM   #126
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Also unbelievable: they are just now finalizing their national vote tally, which looks somewhat different from what it looked like on election day:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...VFNKeVE#gid=19

The above link is to a spreadsheet created by Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. The results are a bit hard to see if you're using firefox, but per his twitter the "semi-final" numbers are:

Obama: 65,899,557 (51.06%)
Romney: 60,931,959 (47.21%)

Not as big a win as 2008, but all things considered a very solid margin, and one that ought to be a little embarrassing to almost every national pollster. Certainly Gallup and Rasmussen should be taking a very close look at their methodology right now.
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Old 01-01-2013, 08:09 PM   #127
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CNN reports seem to suggest that the vote should be in the clear tonight. Amazing how they keep pushing it to the 11th hour every time.

Fun times ahead in February and March to do this all over again. And then again for the budget.

It is hard to believe that they can't even pass a budget, which would take care of both the debt ceiling issue AND this idiotic fiscal cliff crisis, which you'll recall was manufactured by Congress kicking the can down the road in the first place.

It kind of shows the benefit of a system where the failure to pass a budget triggers a vote of non-confidence and a new election. It has the benefit of putting a little added pressure on lawmakers to work together, or face their voters again in a very short time.

Of course, the U.S. is already in perpetual election-mode anyway, so I really don't know what the answer is...
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Old 01-01-2013, 08:09 PM   #128
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wow, talk about getting dominated in the swing states.
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Old 01-01-2013, 08:42 PM   #129
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Here comes the vote - 15 minutes and we'll know. (Markets in Asia have been rising through their day).
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Old 01-01-2013, 08:58 PM   #130
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And done, passed in the House.
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Old 01-01-2013, 09:04 PM   #131
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About bloody time they do something, even if I don't agree with the ratio of taxes to spending cuts.
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Old 01-01-2013, 09:16 PM   #132
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Not much a long term solution; see you all again a few weeks when we do this all over again.
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Old 01-01-2013, 10:59 PM   #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan View Post
Also unbelievable: they are just now finalizing their national vote tally, which looks somewhat different from what it looked like on election day:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...VFNKeVE#gid=19

The above link is to a spreadsheet created by Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. The results are a bit hard to see if you're using firefox, but per his twitter the "semi-final" numbers are:

Obama: 65,899,557 (51.06%)
Romney: 60,931,959 (47.21%)

Not as big a win as 2008, but all things considered a very solid margin, and one that ought to be a little embarrassing to almost every national pollster. Certainly Gallup and Rasmussen should be taking a very close look at their methodology right now.
Pretty sure their methodology was hope and pray for the candidate they most favour.
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Old 01-02-2013, 08:08 AM   #134
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I'm surprised the markets have responded the way the have. This deal does nearly nothing, and we'll be right back here in a month.

Plus we gotta go through the debt ceiling exercise again. Hopefully the Republicans don't do what they did last time and hold the country hostage.

Course I've given up trying to make sense of economists a long time ago. They complain that citizens carry too much personal debt, but warn if they stop spending the economy will go into a recession.

In a system where nothing seems to be good news, and they want both sides of the argument, maybe status quo is really the only thing they get excited about.
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Old 01-02-2013, 08:58 AM   #135
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Still find it amazing that Nate Silver missed one race...that congressional or senate race in North Dakota. His performance the last two elections on reading the polling data has been spectacular. Pretty clear next election cycle candidate teams better be paying close attention to what he is saying to figure out where to put their money.

He recently wrote a blog on the Romney internal polling which I found interesting.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...y-be-to-blame/

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Old 01-02-2013, 09:14 AM   #136
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I'm surprised the markets have responded the way the have. This deal does nearly nothing, and we'll be right back here in a month.

Plus we gotta go through the debt ceiling exercise again. Hopefully the Republicans don't do what they did last time and hold the country hostage.

Course I've given up trying to make sense of economists a long time ago. They complain that citizens carry too much personal debt, but warn if they stop spending the economy will go into a recession.

In a system where nothing seems to be good news, and they want both sides of the argument, maybe status quo is really the only thing they get excited about.
Markets don't necessarily care what you've done, only that the uncertainty of doing nothing has changed into the certainty of having done something.

Some clarity is positive. Business owners and others hiring or spending on plant and equipment will also appreciate the clarity.

As you say though, more to come.

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Old 01-02-2013, 09:25 AM   #137
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Now That's What I Call Gerrymandering!

Americans didn't intend to elect a Republican majority to the House of Representatives. Thanks to GOP-engineered redistricting, they did.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/...election-chart
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Old 01-02-2013, 09:37 AM   #138
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Well, all in all, the Government has thus far passed bills that decrease spending and increase revenue by 1.6 trillion (1 trillion in cuts from last year and 600 billion in revenue now)

Still 2.4 trillion short of the Simpson Bowles recommendations. If you look at about 1.2 billion in extra cuts and an additional 600 billion in extra revenue to balance what Obama was offering prior to Boehner's plan B then it'll only be about 600 billion short of what the government needs in order to get off the books from the SB plan. All in all, I think that's fairly good. It's not really conceivable to get everything tackled all at once, especially dealing with the congressional republicans.

I hope Obama can get through even more cuts and possibly more revenue than what he was dealing with with Boehner. Ideally, I would like to see social security eliminated for those making more than 250K on average over the ten years prior to them becoming eligible for SS, similarly with medicare, by reducing the amount of coverage for them as well. It doesn't seem necessary for the rich to get any subsidies from the government. Part of being part of the top 2% right. It's all about being fair.
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Old 01-02-2013, 09:41 AM   #139
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Now That's What I Call Gerrymandering!

Americans didn't intend to elect a Republican majority to the House of Representatives. Thanks to GOP-engineered redistricting, they did.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/...election-chart
Ah yes I remember Trump's irate tweets about this, calling his countrymen to arms about the subversion of democracy.. oh wait..
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Old 01-02-2013, 10:25 AM   #140
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Markets don't necessarily care what you've done, only that the uncertainty of doing nothing has changed into the certainty of having done something.

Some clarity is positive. Business owners and others hiring or spending on plant and equipment will also appreciate the clarity.

As you say though, more to come.

Cowperson
Yeah, that makes sense, still I would think since nothing is really solved that that would be uncertainty enough?

I guess even a hairs breadth of progress is still progress.

We will see soon enough. As I said, it's not just the ongoing negotiations on the cliff being pushed forward that we have to deal with, it's the fact we gotta do the debt ceiling again, which I thought would terrify investors and markets.

I did like Obama's strong words regarding that, though I don't know if it will make any difference. Course if the republicans feel like their getting the cuts they want, they'll probably not dick around with the debt ceiling again.
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