Here's the possible problem with an early analysis of this war, and it is a war.
Pretty much right now because the Russians are actually really good at the combined arms approach to war. You'll see heavy casualties at the start, this is usually because the Russians move so fast that they're really outstripping any recon effort, so they'll run into ambushes. But the bottom line is that this thing is going to be all about weight. The Russians will attack everywhere hard. Their weight will crush the Ukraine enemies in the field and when the Russians achieve a break through they'll pour through it, encircle the enemy, slam the door shut on the fire sack and kill everything inside of it with air, artillery, armor and mounted infantry.
The Russians have a huge numerical advantage. The Ukrainian's don't have much to give.
Probably the best thing that the Ukrainian military can do is fight an extremely mobile war. Be willing to give up ground, don't get caught up in static defenses which means similar to the Russians in WW2, be willing to give up ground, while bleeding the lead elements of the Russian attacks, and try to find the weak spots with the Russian logistical tail.
But if the Ukrainians are fighting to defend land and territory, yeah the Russians will take casualties but eventually the weight of their numbers and far more advanced weapons will crush the Ukrainians where they stand.
I think the only hope would be for the Ukraine military to trade space for time in the hopes that help will arrive before its too late, though as I stated above, I doubt that help is coming any time soon.
I think the equipment (particularly the naval and air power) is more of an advantage to the number of troops, Ukraine does have ~215k soldiers + ~250k reservists (which they activated earlier in the week). Whereas reports were only that Russia had 200k soldiers at the border (from news articles that I read).
Now, how many of Belarus's military is engaged (their army is much smaller) ~62k active, ~340k reservists. And how much of the separatists are left from the 40-50k fighters reported from the war.
In theory, numbers might be on Ukraine's side for manpower but definitely not equipment.
Also depends if the population fights, Russia fighting both the army and an insurgency could really tie them down in too many conflicts at once.
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I also heard reports (though I think they are dubious at best) that Ukraine stood up a 1m strong militia. Do they even have the equipment to arm a militia that size? How would no one know about it? This I suspect is BS.
Edit: maybe after your last post, the reports I was hearing were confusing Reservist with Militia, and the 1m number wasn't as BS as I thought it was. The numbers I was getting was from wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine)
I don't know how to even begin writing this, but I am just going to let my hands flow. I have put off mentioning anything about my situation, given I did not want to jinx anything and it is partially my fault.
My wife is in Ukraine right now, in a village a couple km from the Russian border, north of Kharkov. The past few months have been a source of contention for us. Seeing how the situation was escalating day by day, we often argued about her going back to visit her family in February. Her visa in Poland was due to expire this week and we knew this date was coming up. I made it quite clear I did not want her to return. I did not feel it was safe, and even if nothing happened, better safe than sorry. It lead to a lot of arguments, as she hadn't seen her family in a while since we moved here. We are supposed to move to Canada in a few months after a long and stressful sponsorship application process that has cost us thousands, time, and is the main reason for both of us moving to Poland from our home countries. We finally got approved and are so damn close to the finish line. 2 months.
Before she left I tried to get in contact with the UA consulate and polish border guards about getting her an extension on her visa so she could stay. They were of no help. I thought about overstaying her visa. Just...stay in Poland until it's time for us to move to Canada and we can deal with the overstayed visa at passport control. But that might also cause other problems, as she could possibly get detained for a couple days and any future entry attempts would result in a ban. Her visa expiring this week is literally the worst timing of anything in our lives.
Eventually, after arguing many days and nights, she made the decision to return home. I begged her to wait until at least this week to see how it played out. But she is so f'ing stubborn sometimes that she told me she is going on the planned date, no exception. Ultimately she is not my prisoner and it's her choice. I reluctantly went with her to the airport and said our goodbyes. Passport control told her that once her visa was fully expired, she'd be allowed to return for 90 days as a tourist, which worked out perfectly for us to move to Canada before it was done. Just had to ride out 2 weeks of stress...
Thing have gotten worse throughout the week and finally last night I told her I was moving her return flight date up a couple days. Changed her flights, booked train tickets to meet her in Wroclaw and she finally agreed she should not have come and was looking forward to returning. Last bit of news I saw last night was how Kharkov was next. Could barely sleep and woke up this morning to this photo she sent me of tanks outside her window.
Spoiler!
Called her and the family is bunkered down in their apartment. They tried to leave but the roads are all blocked by tanks and others trying to leave. They are also worried that someone will see a UA license plate and shoot at them. They are waiting it out. She lost power moments ago, luckily has a powerbank. Not sure how internet connection will be, or when I'll hear from her again. FML
Don't even know how to feel right now, except for real genuine hatred for the biggest piece of #### psychopath in the world right now. Not a day goes by that I wish with all my heart that I wake up to the news that Vladimir Putin is dead.
I feel nothing but regret now. She was with me last week, and now this....bull####. I wish so bad her flights had gotten cancelled. I wish I had just cancelled them myself. Wish I would have just laid down the law in my household and told her straight up she's not going. Now all I can do is hope and pray to whatever entity will listen that this thing is over soon.
Last edited by Huntingwhale; 02-24-2022 at 01:45 AM.
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My god Huntingwhale, I'm so sorry for your situation. My thoughts and prayers are with your wife and her family. Don't beat yourself up buddy, as hard as it may be.
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Shot down in Flames!
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Fair. I am acquaintances with a few Russian families here in the Vancouver area and my daughter has bonded with their children. I am not sure why, but over the past 10-15 years, there are a lot of new Canadians in the Vancouver area from Russia. I can't say that I have ever had a negative interaction with any of them.
Roughly 10-15 years ago it became harder for Russians to immigrate to USA and many turned to Canada, that has introduced Express Entry program. Also, Richmond is the closest thing to Moscow I've seen in Canada. The Richmond mall that is near railway station, the terminal station if I remember correctly, is very similar to Moscow malls.
Just heard back from the wife. Soldiers have left her village for now. One of the soldiers who came to speak to observers was Chechen, as she knew his accent. In that area they are focusing their attention all on Kharkov for now.
She was supposed to go to a dental appointment today there, so at the very least I'm thankful she wasn't in the city when this broke out.
Last edited by Huntingwhale; 02-24-2022 at 02:25 AM.
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I'm really having a hard time understanding who is in control of what and who is doing what, starting to even see claims that the Russians are losing in the rebel-controlled area with heavy losses.
Searching around twitter is just going to lead you to propaganda tweets. Ukraine will say they are winning, Russia will say Ukraine is dropping their weapons and giving up or killing civilians, etc.
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Searching around twitter is just going to lead you to propaganda tweets. Ukraine will say they are winning, Russia will say Ukraine is dropping their weapons and giving up or killing civilians, etc.
Situation on the ground is going to be fluid, probably best only to use tweets from news outlets reporters/investigative journalists for immediate updates so we don't get misinformed. Non-accredited stuff isn't gonna be reliable, Twitter is slow at banning bots and propaganda accounts.
This has been happening for a year. Not new. Article from a month ago:
Quote:
The incursion on Sunday was the largest by Chinese warplanes since October 4, when a record 56 aircraft were detected in Taiwan’s air defence zone.
Taiwan reported 148 Chinese air force planes in the southern and southwestern parts of its air defence zone over a four-day period beginning on October 1, the same day China marked a key patriotic holiday, National Day.
Before the latest incursion, Beijing had already sent 70 Chinese warplanes on 17 days into Taiwan’s air defence zone since the new year began.
Germany has ruled out arms deliveries to Ukraine but is co-financing a $6-million field hospital and providing training.
Germany's response in all this has been insulting. Best they offered Ukraine was some helmets and nothing else. Germany needs to ween itself off Russian natural gas and fast. Should have been clear to do that years ago tho in 2014.
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