SitRep - 14/07/24 - Russia used a FAB-3000 over Ukraine An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian convicts were cruited into the 47th Brigade, and put to action for the first time. Also, Russia dropped a FAB-3000 over Ukraine https://twitter.com/user/status/1812590526933184609
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SitRep - 15/07/24 - Russian activity in the Sumy border is decreasing An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The 117th Brigade notes a decrease in Russian activity along the Sumy border. Spain also sent 10 refurbished Leopard 2A4's. https://twitter.com/user/status/1813104955219186080
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Ukrainian Defenders shot down a Russian Su-25 aircraft as it was shelling Ukrainian positions in Pokrovsk direction - Khortytsya Operational Strategic group. https://twitter.com/user/status/1814267471626465447
Russian soldier loses his hand attempting to take apart a piece of ammunition
“Warriors” of the 1307th Russian regiment say that old, untrained Russians often come to serve in their rank. Many come simply to “die at a higher cost,” while others are forced by their wives - they say, at least you will be of some use. https://twitter.com/user/status/1814234281251688668
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Locals in shock as another Russian air field is hammered by Ukrainian drones that've made it past hundreds of kilometers of Russia's remaining air defenses https://twitter.com/user/status/1815241727139021219
Perun with a look into the Russian equipment losses, and the outlook gives reasons for cautious optimism.
There are very clear signs that the Russian weapons stockpiles are depleting at a pace that is going to be felt at the frontlines. They are digging into older and older equipment, and the equipment they are trying to send to the front need more and more repair. The production of new materiel doesn't come even close to keeping up with their losses.
Even though Perun doesn't say it, it's also pretty safe to call the Russian Kharkiv offensive a clear strategic failure. In general, the loss of Russian men and equipment are massive compared to the tiny amounts of land gained.
North Korean stockpiles might bring short term relief, but the equipment Russia is getting from there is also likely to be old and crappy, and it's unclear how much NK is willing to part with.
It's worth remembering that regardless of who wins the US presidential race, the already approved weapons packages will still keep arriving in 2025, as much of the support is more or less "already in the system" so to speak. Trump might cut off new support, but he's very unlikely to block US military manufacturers from completing deals already made. The European powers have also been making an increasing amount of long term commitments.
There is I think a real chance (not a great chance, but still a real one) that this summer was the highpoint of Russian advantage in materiel, and that next year the playing field will be much more even for Ukrainians... Who have shown that when the odds are even close to even, they can consistently pull off W's on the battlefield.
More importantly, I think after this summer, any talk that "Russia can't be defeated" and "Ukraine's defeat is inevitable" will just look obviously false, while the idea that Russia can win this war on the battlefield will be just as obviously false. If they could, this year was the time to do it.
That could do a lot for the support of the war, both in the US and inside Russia.
Russia is very far from being beat, it still has a very big and dangerous army, but I still look at the situation with cautious optimism. Even if Trump wins and cuts off all support for Ukraine, I think Russia's window to win this on the battlefield is basically already closed (for now).
Last edited by Itse; 07-23-2024 at 03:07 AM.
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All of those numbers are insane. Most armies in the world would be completely wiped out numerous times with those numbers.
The amount of lives and resources wasted for such stupid reasons... It's insane that Russians are putting up with this.
As long as it's not men from Moscow and SPB being sent, they'll keep putting up with it. They simply don't care about poor dark skinned slanty-eyed asian looking men from village X, Siberia. As long as those precious young men from exactly those 2 cities remain untouched, nobody is going to complain. "Better them than us", is the mindset.
The absolute smartest thing the kremlin has done since day 1 is keep those men from Moscow and SPB largely untouched. Still a ways to go before considerations are given to tapping into those 2 sources.
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Putin is running out of soldiers. To incentivize new cannon fodder, russia has increased the compensation for new recruits to 1.9 million rubles.
Recruitment billboards started to appear in large russian cities, such as St. Petersburg. Such cities have been mostly spared the sight of coffins and prostheses. Not anymore https://twitter.com/user/status/1815778923889803601
Russian tanks that haven't seen action since murdering civilians on the streets of Budapest and Prague, pulled from museums and given a new life in desperate attempt to gain another square kilometer of Ukraine. https://twitter.com/user/status/1815692873137897732
How can Russia sustain such high losses? 1,000 a day, 500,000 in total? Why would Russian soldiers voluntarily go to die?
Car bomb detonated in Moscow resulting in the loss of both legs for Andrei Torgashov, Deputy Chief of the Satellite Communications Center of the Russian Armed Forces. https://twitter.com/user/status/1815999742679343581
You can call these "accidents" or you can call them tests, which they are. Intentional or not, they are dangerous and provide Russia with useful intel on NATO response https://twitter.com/user/status/1816154599490781352
Unbelievable. POW soldiers and civilians tortured and organs harvested for sale (I'm guessing to china) and 20k+ children sent to "re education" (rape) camps in Russia.
Are they trying to surpass nazi atrocities, or is this just coming naturally?
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Unbelievable. POW soldiers and civilians tortured and organs harvested for sale (I'm guessing to china) and 20k+ children sent to "re education" (rape) camps in Russia.
Are they trying to surpass nazi atrocities, or is this just coming naturally?
Some of the Ukrainian children that were stolen have become legal adults now and are being forced to fight in Ukraine with the Russians now. I don't know why, but of all the things, that one just disgusts me the most. It's all pretty evil stuff, but I feel so bad for those kids.
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Ukrainian intelligence reportedly struck three Russian helicopters in a week. On July 21, a Mi-28 and a Ka-226 were hit. On July 24, a Mi-8 was destroyed, and today, a Tu-134 was also targeted. https://twitter.com/user/status/1817464428553466265
One of the 15 survivors of Wagner's PMC has been captured and is now begging for mercy from the Azawad militia. Malian fighters said on social media that they were ready to hand over captured Wagner fighters to Ukraine as a "sign of support and solidarity." https://twitter.com/user/status/1817504488619417641
Heavy losses of mercenaries of the former "Wagner Group"
