Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

This board was full of posters predicting Gaudreau would never sign with the Flames in the first place, but just play out his four years of college and go straight to UFA.

You ought to remember, you were certainly here then.

Oh for sure...hell i wasnt sure he was signing out of college to be honest.

But TOfan said "Gaudreau has had opportunities to leave the Flames,"

I really do not think thats true at all short of asking for a trade, which anyone can do in theory.

Now things have changed though with him holding, literally, all the leverage. If he wants to leave, he can and there is nothing anyone can do. That was not the case previous to this season.

He might re-sign in Calgary but I highly doubt it happens before he checks what's out there....why would he?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

You wouldn’t know whether it’s right or wrong because you weren’t at the negotiating table. The majority of players want long term deals so they have the security and added bonus of not having to deal with negotiations every summer. If the number was right, he probably would’ve signed on the dotted line. That’s my opinion and I’m sticking to it.

If the number was right - yes, of course he would have signed. But it would likely have been a number that wouldn't have fit with the point you are trying to manufacture.

Sure, I may have seen 30 goal potential, but did anyone else? Did Mangiapane or his agent definitively know too? It wasn’t really until Andrew went to the World Championships in last year where he truly understood where he stood in relation to the rest of the league. He was so good, even Team Canada was talking about him playing in the Olympics.

Lastly, Treliving has always been an extremely difficult negotiator. He uses leverage whenever he’s had a chance and that’s why he’s come out on top with his RFA signings.

LOL

Yeah, you're the only one. Not even the player and the agent were as smart as you. How on earth are you not on an NHL payroll?

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Oh for sure...hell i wasnt sure he was signing out of college to be honest.

But TOfan said "Gaudreau has had opportunities to leave the Flames,"

I really do not think thats true at all short of asking for a trade, which anyone can do in theory.

Now things have changed though with him holding, literally, all the leverage. If he wants to leave, he can and there is nothing anyone can do. That was not the case previous to this season.

He might re-sign in Calgary but I highly doubt it happens before he checks what's out there....why would he?

Okay, let me rephrase it; Gaudreau, as far as the public is aware, has never exercised his ability to leave. To your point, he has never asked for a trade. He has signed two contracts with the team.

Honestly, it’s getting tiresome reading people say ‘Gaudreau has all the leverage’. Yes. That’s what happens when a player hits UFA eligible status. It happens to them all, provided their careers last that long. Does this mean Gaudreau is going to demand the Flames pay him an amount of money that no one else possibly could? I kind of doubt that. And let’s not kid ourselves, no matter we’re Gaudreau signs, he’s going to get paid. This narrative that Gaudreau has the Flames bent over a barrel is lazy.

From what I’ve heard Gaudreau has said he wants to stay. I think he’s on record at least twice saying this. His family has been supportive of how they have treated Johnny. Example; Gaudreau returned to play his final year at BC so he could play with his brother. Did the Flames put pressure on him to leave and sign a pro contract? No. They were smart about it and let him do what he wanted. They built trust. Apparently his wife has left her job in Philadelphia to move here and I’m not certain of this but apparently resuming her career as a nurse here? His mom recently tweeted she like the sound of an 8 year contract extension with the Flames.

What if Gaudreau actually is happy here and what if Gaudreau is actually okay with the $72-80M coming his way (my bet).

The other thing that is tiring is reading ‘how Treliving is going to let his most prized asset leave for nothing’? What did he do when Brandon Hickey wasn’t going to sign here? What about Adam Fox? What did he do when Dougie Hamilton wanted to leave? When he determined Michael Ferland was unlikely to fit the team’s salary structure moving forward? What about a year ago when it was likely he was going to lose one of Sam Bennett or Mark Giordano? He was going to lose a player in the expansion draft. There was nothing he could do about it. The fact he lost a good player speaks to the fact that this was, and is, a good team. He did lose Brodie but he did have a contingency plan and I’d argue a pretty damn good one. Hell, he even got a 4th for Frolik.

Bottom line, none of us are in the room but I’m not sensing frustration from either side here. Gaudreau’s agent isn’t kicking up a bunch of dust like Pietroangelo’s agent did. If there is an appetite from both sides to work something out, it’s more likely than not to work out.

My bet, Gaudeau signs an 8 year $72-80M sometime before the draft.

[midniteowl]

[QUOTE=TOfan;8165057]He did lose Brodie but he did have a contingency plan and I’d argue a pretty damn good one.
/QUOTE]


But losing Brodie wasn't his fault entirely though, Brodie wanted to move back home because of his wife's illness and he is getting paid $5M. He wouldn't have stayed even if Flames pay him $5M, may he stayed if Flames have offered him $6M? Who knows, but is he worth $6M?

[Enoch Root]

[QUOTE=midniteowl;8165082]

Originally Posted by TOfan

He did lose Brodie but he did have a contingency plan and I’d argue a pretty damn good one.
/QUOTE]


But losing Brodie wasn't his fault entirely though, Brodie wanted to move back home because of his wife's illness and he is getting paid $5M. He wouldn't have stayed even if Flames pay him $5M, may he stayed if Flames have offered him $6M? Who knows, but is he worth $6M?

not when plan B was Tanev at $4.5M

[blender]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Oh for sure...hell i wasnt sure he was signing out of college to be honest.

But TOfan said "Gaudreau has had opportunities to leave the Flames,"

I really do not think thats true at all short of asking for a trade, which anyone can do in theory.

Now things have changed though with him holding, literally, all the leverage. If he wants to leave, he can and there is nothing anyone can do. That was not the case previous to this season.

He might re-sign in Calgary but I highly doubt it happens before he checks what's out there....why would he?

Nothing you are saying is incorrect, but one very legitimate reason for him not to test free agency is the eighth year. It could be a 10m year.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Oh for sure...hell i wasnt sure he was signing out of college to be honest.

But TOfan said "Gaudreau has had opportunities to leave the Flames,"

I really do not think thats true at all short of asking for a trade, which anyone can do in theory.

Now things have changed though with him holding, literally, all the leverage. If he wants to leave, he can and there is nothing anyone can do. That was not the case previous to this season.

He might re-sign in Calgary but I highly doubt it happens before he checks what's out there....why would he?

Based on his age, the 8th year would be a significant advantage the Flames would have over any other team's offer. If he signs a 7 year contract, he will be 36 at the end of that contract. Is he likely to be offered a $9M contract at age 36? That would be a lot of potential income to leave on the table.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by blender

Nothing you are saying is incorrect, but one very legitimate reason for him not to test free agency is the eighth year. It could be a 10m year.

With the extra year, plus going an extra $1M than anyone else on salary, it actually grosses him an extra $18.75M

7x$10.25 = $71.25M
8x10.25 = $82M
8x$11.25 = $90M

7x$10.75= $75.25M
8x$10.75 = $86M
8x$11.75 = $94M

That’s a reason to stay. That’s basically $20M extra - I don’t care how much I’d like to play in my home town, I don’t care what the tax rate is.

$20M is $20M.

So, they can keep him. They just have to give him better term and dollars.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

With the extra year, plus going an extra $1M than anyone else on salary, it actually grosses him an extra $18.75M

7x$10.25 = $71.25M
8x10.25 = $82M
8x$11.25 = $90M

7x$10.75= $75.25M
8x$10.75 = $86M
8x$11.75 = $94M

That’s a reason to stay. That’s basically $20M extra - I don’t care how much I’d like to play in my home town, I don’t care what the tax rate is.

$20M is $20M.

So, they can keep him. They just have to give him better term and dollars.

I doubt an 8th year is going to be the factor that convinces him to resign with the Flames in my opinion.

If he is only looking at the money aspect, moving to the states is a better option (i.e. tax free states etc.).

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by flambers

I doubt an 8th year is going to be the factor that convinces him to resign with the Flames in my opinion.

If he is only looking at the money aspect, moving to the states is a better option (i.e. tax free states etc.).

I would put the odds of Gaudreau ending up in Florida or Texas to be very small, 5% or less. Tennessee, if Forsberg walks, perhaps. They might have the cap space and inclination to do that but, other then money, why would Gaudreau choose to go there?

Seems like he is either happy to stay here, which he has said he would like, or, logically, move closer to home. ie: the NE United States. Then the question becomes which of those teams is in a position to bring him in?

[flambers]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Seems like he is either happy to stay here, which he has said he would like, or, logically, move closer to home. ie: the NE United States. Then the question becomes which of those teams is in a position to bring him in?

Agreed, he is either happy with the Flames and stays.

[Macman]

I could see Pittsburgh being a dark horse for either Gaudreau or Tkachuk especially with Brian Burke there now.

But I hope and think both will re-sign here.

[FlamesAddiction]

Nashville and Anaheim are also two teams that are relatively competitive and will have a tonne of money to spend. I have a feeling those two teams are really going to inflate the market.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by flambers

I doubt an 8th year is going to be the factor that convinces him to resign with the Flames in my opinion.

If he is only looking at the money aspect, moving to the states is a better option (i.e. tax free states etc.).

That’s why you can’t just offer him the same deal as someone else, with an extra year. An extra year at $10.5M, half of that going to taxes and agents and escrow?

Not worth it.

You have to beat the rest of the league in dollars and term. You’re not getting him cheap.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

That’s a reason to stay. That’s basically $20M extra - I don’t care how much I’d like to play in my home town, I don’t care what the tax rate is.

$20M is $20M.

So, they can keep him. They just have to give him better term and dollars.

You should care about the tax rate, $20M is not always $20M.

There can be huge differences in take home pay.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

You should care about the tax rate, $20M is not always $20M.

There can be huge differences in take home pay.

I know that.

That’s why I’m suggesting we offer Gaudreau the extra $20m that nobody else can, because it really doesn’t work to offer him the same (or barely more).

[bdubbs]

Pay the man, figure out the rest later. This team looks drastically different without his playmaking.

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

You should care about the tax rate, $20M is not always $20M.

There can be huge differences in take home pay.

Somewhere in the MLB threads there is a discussion on variable tax rates between teams. What it works out to is that there is a small advantage to playing in a place like Texas or Florida, but the lawyers and accountants for major league sports have broken down the techno-babble so that the discrepancy is not as much as a normal Joe would have to deal with.

The overwhelming advantages in terms of a player choosing where to play falls to location, chance to win, and cap hit before tax incentives come into play.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by bdubbs

Pay the man, figure out the rest later. This team looks drastically different without his playmaking.

The direction they’ve chosen to go makes 0 sense without Johnny on the roster.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Somewhere in the MLB threads there is a discussion on variable tax rates between teams. What it works out to is that there is a small advantage to playing in a place like Texas or Florida, but the lawyers and accountants for major league sports have broken down the techno-babble so that the discrepancy is not as much as a normal Joe would have to deal with.

The overwhelming advantages in terms of a player choosing where to play falls to location, chance to win, and cap hit before tax incentives come into play.

I agree with this. Yet player agents and team executives have consistently referred to tax issues as a detriment for Canadian franchises. At least the perception is out there.


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