2017/2018 Trade Speculation and Rumors

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

Easy answer. No!

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

I think people underestimate the huge hole that would be left in our roster if Hamilton was traded. Not only this season, but Giordano is 34.....

Picture our D with no Giordano or Hamilton in 4 seasons.

At this point I'd rather trade Giordano than Hamilton, strictly because of age.

A lot of rumors of "so and so is interested in Hamilton". No #### they are, he's a #2 D at the age of 24. We are lucky to have him.

.

I would wager if the Flames traded Gio over Dougie st least the next 2-3 years the defense would be worse off. Gio carries Hamilton like he carried Brodie.

I don’t think Hamilton leaves as big of a hole as others he is fantastic offensive player but I don’t think he will ever be a true number 1. Having said that he is a valuable player and not one that should be given away without another long term vote piece coming back and if we are adding a winger I prefer we get a pick or something else in return unless the winger is Marner or very similar caliber.

[Roof-Daddy]

Brodie + Bennett for Brodin + Coyle

Bit of a "shake up trade"

They get the older and better Dman, we get the older and better forward who also happens to have a right shot and can play a bit of center. Wild have three 3rd rounders this year, maybe they add one because although (IMO) the value of the trade is pretty even, the Flames are talking on more money.

[Toonage]

Not Flames related but Scott Powers of the Athletic speculating that Scott Darling could be traded back to the Blackhawks.

Madness.

https://theathletic.com/384708/2018/...eason-targets/

"There’s also a chance the Blackhawks and Hurricanes work together on more of a blockbuster deal. A source said Darling’s name has been mentioned in conversations."

"Darling, who is 29, was traded from the Blackhawks to the Hurricanes after the 2016-17 season. The Hurricanes made him their No. 1 goalie and gave him a four-year, $16.6 million contract. But Darling had a rough season, finishing with an .888 save percentage in 43 games."

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I would wager if the Flames traded Gio over Dougie st least the next 2-3 years the defense would be worse off. Gio carries Hamilton like he carried Brodie.

I don’t think Hamilton leaves as big of a hole as others he is fantastic offensive player but I don’t think he will ever be a true number 1. Having said that he is a valuable player and not one that should be given away without another long term vote piece coming back and if we are adding a winger I prefer we get a pick or something else in return unless the winger is Marner or very similar caliber.

At 24 I doubt you were saying Gio was going to be a true number one. He was maybe a 4-5 at that point (behind Phaneuf, Regher, Aucoin, Sarich).

[Oling_Roachinen]

Nah, Giordano wasn't a #5 when he was 24...


He was playing in Moscow because he hadn't quite established himself as a #7.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

At 24 I doubt you were saying Gio was going to be a true number one. He was maybe a 4-5 at that point (behind Phaneuf, Regher, Aucoin, Sarich).

That is true, but I wouldn't try to prove the premise by using the outlier.

Most 24 year olds who are a #4-5's will likely remain so or perhaps improve somewhat. The number that become true number #1's would be short.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

At 24 I doubt you were saying Gio was going to be a true number one. He was maybe a 4-5 at that point (behind Phaneuf, Regher, Aucoin, Sarich).

Thst logic doesn’t really work though. It is like saying Bennett can still be a top line centre because he is 22. People call him a bust because he was drafted 4th overall. Hamilton was 9th overall and has certainly lived up to his top 10 billing but Gio was an undrafted late bloomer. People still hold out hope Foo will become a top 6 forward but he is 2 years older than Bennett who is a 3rd line bust (not saying that is something you personally have said but these comments are made all the time)

Maybe Dougie improves his defensive game and leadership to be a top guy teams build around but I personally don’t see it. As I have mentioned something about Hamilton kind of irks me. I don’t hate the player or the guy but he seems off so I would be fine if they traded him for the forward equivalent which would be a first liner that is 25 or younger.


Gio-Brodie were considered one of if not the best pairing in 14/15. Hamilton and Gio have had the same comparisons the past 2 years. If the Flames shook things up next year and played Brodie-Hamilton together and Gio-Hamonic which pair do people think would have the superior metrics? I wouldn’t even hesitate to say it would be Gio-Hamonic.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

That is true, but I wouldn't try to prove the premise by using the outlier.

Most 24 year olds who are a #4-5's will likely remain so or perhaps improve somewhat. The number that become true number #1's would be short.

But making the jump at 24-years-old from a #4/5 defenseman to an eventual #1 defenseman is a veritable chasm compared to making the transition from a #2 defenseman to a #1 defenseman. It seems eminently reasonable to expect a 24-year-old #2 defenseman to become a solid #1 defenseman. I would actually expect that it is relatively common for young #2 defensemen to eventually become #1 defensemen.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I would wager if the Flames traded Gio over Dougie st least the next 2-3 years the defense would be worse off. Gio carries Hamilton like he carried Brodie.

I don’t think Hamilton leaves as big of a hole as others he is fantastic offensive player but I don’t think he will ever be a true number 1. Having said that he is a valuable player and not one that should be given away without another long term vote piece coming back and if we are adding a winger I prefer we get a pick or something else in return unless the winger is Marner or very similar caliber.

2017-18

Together at 5v5, Hamilton and Giordano have a CF% of 58.25%. Without Giordano at 5v5, Hamilton has a CF% of 53.33%. Without Hamilton at 5v5, Giordano has a CF% of 53.33%.

2014-15

Together at 5v5, Giordano and Brodie had a CF% of 49.00% (the Flames were awful). Without Giordano at 5v5, Brodie had a CF% of 39.18%. Without Brodie at 5v5, Giordano has a CF% of 43.00%.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Thst logic doesn’t really work though. It is like saying Bennett can still be a top line centre because he is 22. People call him a bust because he was drafted 4th overall. Hamilton was 9th overall and has certainly lived up to his top 10 billing but Gio was an undrafted late bloomer. People still hold out hope Foo will become a top 6 forward but he is 2 years older than Bennett who is a 3rd line bust (not saying that is something you personally have said but these comments are made all the time)

Maybe Dougie improves his defensive game and leadership to be a top guy teams build around but I personally don’t see it. As I have mentioned something about Hamilton kind of irks me. I don’t hate the player or the guy but he seems off so I would be fine if they traded him for the forward equivalent which would be a first liner that is 25 or younger.


Gio-Brodie were considered one of if not the best pairing in 14/15. Hamilton and Gio have had the same comparisons the past 2 years. If the Flames shook things up next year and played Brodie-Hamilton together and Gio-Hamonic which pair do people think would have the superior metrics? I wouldn’t even hesitate to say it would be Gio-Hamonic.

The Flames getting rid of a 25 year old dman to keep a more expensive 35 year old dman would make sense for the Flames to do. Most bubble playoff teams with a core group under 26 would not do that, but I could see the Flames doing it.

I would keep Hamilton as most dmen have their most productive seasons after the age of 25. As such I suspect that the Dougie we have seen over the past 3 years is the inferior Hamilton compared to future Dougie Hamilton.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Nelson

2017-18

Together at 5v5, Hamilton and Giordano have a CF% of 58.25%. Without Giordano at 5v5, Hamilton has a CF% of 53.33%. Without Hamilton at 5v5, Giordano has a CF% of 53.33%.

2014-15

Together at 5v5, Giordano and Brodie had a CF% of 49.00% (the Flames were awful). Without Giordano at 5v5, Brodie had a CF% of 39.18%. Without Brodie at 5v5, Giordano has a CF% of 43.00%.

Flames top 5 possession in 17/18 and one of the worst in 14/15. One team had 84pts and missed the playoffs the other had 97 and made the second round. While it think it has value not a huge fan of CF

https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/m...eir-teams/amp/

[Nelson]

2017-18

Together at 5v5, Hamilton and Giordano have a CF% of 58.25%. Without Giordano at 5v5, Hamilton has a CF% of 53.33%. Without Hamilton at 5v5, Giordano has a CF% of 53.33%.

2014-15

Together at 5v5, Giordano and Brodie had a CF% of 49.00% (the Flames were awful). Without Giordano at 5v5, Brodie had a CF% of 39.18%. Without Brodie at 5v5, Giordano has a CF% of 43.00%.[/QUOTE]

In 17-18, Hamilton and Giordano were making each other better at controlling shot attempts and equally good at controlling shot attempts apart from one another. Giordano was not carrying Hamilton.

If you look at 16-17, Hamilton was way better without Giordano in 318 minutes at 5v5 (52.5 CF%) than Giordano was without Hamilton in 384 minutes at 5v5 (47.3%).

However, Giordano was carrying Brodie’s in 2014-15. In 2014-15, Giordano and Brodie played over 1000 minutes together at 5v5 and Brodie played over 550 minutes without Giordano at 5v5. Without Giordano, Brodie was absolutely horrible.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Flames top 5 possession in 17/18 and one of the worst in 14/15. One team had 84pts and missed the playoffs the other had 97 and made the second round. While it think it has value not a huge fan of CF

https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/m...eir-teams/amp/

It’s not about the absolute values. It’s about how they change with and without each other. I do not think it’s true that Giordano is carrying Hamilton. Hamilton would be fine on his own.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Nelson

In 17-18, Hamilton and Giordano were making each other better at controlling shot attempts and equally good at controlling shot attempts apart from one another. Giordano was not carrying Hamilton.

If you look at 16-17, Hamilton was way better without Giordano in 318 minutes at 5v5 (52.5 CF%) than Giordano was without Hamilton in 384 minutes at 5v5 (47.3%).

However, Giordano was carrying Brodie’s in 2014-15. In 2014-15, Giordano and Brodie played over 1000 minutes together at 5v5 and Brodie played over 550 minutes without Giordano at 5v5. Without Giordano, Brodie was absolutely horrible.

The very stats you tried to quote suggested that Brodie made Giordano better, just not by the same amount as Giordano made Brodie better.

To suggest Brodie was carried is pure revisionist's history.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The Flames getting rid of a 25 year old dman to keep a more expensive 35 year old dman would make sense for the Flames to do. Most bubble playoff teams with a core group under 26 would not do that, but I could see the Flames doing it.

I would keep Hamilton as most dmen have their most productive seasons after the age of 25. As such I suspect that the Dougie we have seen over the past 3 years is the inferior Hamilton compared to future Dougie Hamilton.

Well the Flames won’t trade Gio there is almost a 100% chance of that especially listening to Treliving at the STH event this week.

You could be right I can easily see Hamilton improving on his offensive numbers. I hope he becomes better defensively and while he is not terrible I still think he has a huge way to go if he is ever going to be a true #1.

In 3 years he will likely need an 7-8 year deal that is in the 8-10M range.

The Flames have a solid pipeline of right shot blueliners wth offensive ability. I don’t think Gio returns a 21-25 year old first line forward and I think Hamilton does. I want to trade Dougie because he brings back the asset we need the most. Personally I think the Flames can withstand losing him if we get a top line long term forward in return.i

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

The very stats you tried to quote suggested that Brodie made Giordano better, just not by the same amount as Giordano made Brodie better.

To suggest Brodie was carried is pure revisionist's history.

I'm sorry. You're right. Giordano and Brodie were better together than apart and Giordano and Hamilton are better together than apart. However, I am trying to show that Hamilton is not carried by Giordano. The point is that unlike Brodie without Giordano, Hamilton is better or as good as Giordano without Giordano and Giordano is as good or worse than Hamilton without Hamilton. This is different than with Brodie. Therefore, while Giordano and Hamilton are better together than apart, LHD - Hamilton would still be a great pair. Hamilton is great without Giordano. Brodie sucks without Giordano.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Nah, Giordano wasn't a #5 when he was 24...


He was playing in Moscow because he hadn't quite established himself as a #7.

He was 22 then.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

But making the jump at 24-years-old from a #4/5 defenseman to an eventual #1 defenseman is a veritable chasm compared to making the transition from a #2 defenseman to a #1 defenseman. It seems eminently reasonable to expect a 24-year-old #2 defenseman to become a solid #1 defenseman. I would actually expect that it is relatively common for young #2 defensemen to eventually become #1 defensemen.

That's my point, thanks. It's not that Gio didn't look good - he did. I'm saying Gio was a 5 with upside at the same age that Hamilton is a number 2. It's not that hard to imagine some upside to Hamilton, and any significant growth in his game makes him a number 1 easily.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Nelson

2017-18

Together at 5v5, Hamilton and Giordano have a CF% of 58.25%. Without Giordano at 5v5, Hamilton has a CF% of 53.33%. Without Hamilton at 5v5, Giordano has a CF% of 53.33%.

2014-15

Together at 5v5, Giordano and Brodie had a CF% of 49.00% (the Flames were awful). Without Giordano at 5v5, Brodie had a CF% of 39.18%. Without Brodie at 5v5, Giordano has a CF% of 43.00%.

Here's the flaw to your analysis: WOWY stats for defensemen are highly dependent on who the other options are. The truth is that back in 2014-15, Dennis Wideman was a better possession defenseman than Kris Russell and Deryk Engelland. When Giordano wasn't playing with Brodie, he was playing with Wideman. When Brodie wasn't playing with Giordano, he was playing with Russell and Engelland.

First of all, yes Giordano is a superior shot metric player to Brodie because of his elite shot generation ability and Brodie's general refusal to shoot. However, it is debatable if Giordano is a better shot suppressor to Brodie (both are excellent however).

In reality, Brodie's elite shot suppression (which is a combination of his neutral zone gap control, defensive zone takeaway ability, and his excellent first pass) were a definite boon on Giordano's play. No player on that pair "carried" the other because both were constantly covering for each other. A basic look at CF% can't show that.

When Giordano got hurt in 2014-15, his shot suppression numbers didn't actually fall off but his %s fell off because he was playing with partners who did not drive shot attempts for. Defensively, the Brodie-Engelland pairing carried this team to the playoffs by taking on difficult matchups (and that was 70+% Brodie, as Engelland was remarkably prone to having his breakout plays picked off or turn into icings). Offensively, they naturally struggled - because they should have - Brodie was playing the left side and neither Engelland no Brodie is a volume shot generating defenseman.

The truth is this though - As a purely defensive pair, Brodie-Engelland managed to keep goal events against low enough that the more offensive pairs - Schlemko-Diaz and Russell-Wideman, were able to stay above water. This was only possible because TJ Brodie is a phenomenal defensive defenseman. Of course it would be nice if he could be gatling gun shooter from the point, but he as able to offset that offensive shortcoming with his playmaking ability - something which is not obvious in underlying metrics.

One of the most effective pairings we've had over the last four seasons is Russell-Brodie. Kris Russell sucks at most things we'd associate with defensive play, but it's not a coincidence this pairing had chemistry - it placed Brodie on his right side where his offensive creativity could shine, and together they could skate as well as any D pairing in the NHL. But merely looking at their CF% would tell you they were a bad pairing. Which has some merit - Russell is not a top four defenseman on a good team, but Brodie was able to work with what he could do well and carry him. This pairing had strong goal differentials.

One of the least effective pairings we've had over the last ~six seasons is Giordano-Wideman. Wideman also sucks at most things we'd associate with defensive play, but he has an excellent first pass which does minimize some goal events against. Regardless, the underlying numbers of the the Giordano-Wideman pair were decent because Wideman was good at getting shots, but this was fools gold because Giordano could not carry Wideman in the defensive zone.

WOWY stats are very very useful and I encourage you to continue using them. But there are things they don't tell you and can purposefully obscure. Sometime it's better to look at the success of actual pairings when apart from each other. For instance Deryk Engelland is a player both Brodie and Gio have played significant minutes with.


Brodie - Engelland
42.99% CF
34.49 ZSR
632.84 TOI together

Gio - Engelland
42.48% CF
37.25 ZSR
303.04 TOI together

Well first of all, the big difference is Brodie spent TWICE as much time on a pairing with Engelland. His overall statistics over the same period of time are thus more skewed by that pairing.

We can look at the other pairs too:

Brodie-Wideman
48.64%
50% ZSR
728 TOI

Giordano Wideman
49.13%
46.94% ZSR
326.45 TOI

Again there isn't a huge gap. Except in the ice time, where Brodie is being skewed towards the inferior partner.

Russell-Brodie
40.87% CF
32.1% ZSR
206.65 TOI

Giordano-Russell
31.33% CF
33.33 ZSR
21.97 TOI

The major gap here is the ice time. Giordano almost never had to play with Kris Russell. For the record though, Russell-Brodie had very good goal differentials that defy their underlying statistics.

Finally, I am not saying Brodie's possession stats are or should be as good as Hamilton OR Giordano. I very easily concede those two are possession monsters. But that's because of shot generation, not because of who carried a pairing - which has a lot more to do with who is getting the puck out of the defensive zone efficiently and is something all three of Brodie, Hamilton, and Giordano do well. Of course more shots are better, but as we saw last year, volume shooting is not a holistic solution.

The truth is this - after our top three defensemen there is a steep dropoff as far as guys who can play WITH the puck in the defensive zone. A lot of emphasis is placed on playing without the puck but the truth is that in the NHL, if you don't have the puck and you're in the defensvie zone, you are at the mercy of whether your goalie can make a save through traffic and deflections. Being able to make plays with the puck is how you keep goals against down, and that's what makes Kulak a player who should get the opportunity to play with Brodie. It's a pairing I firmly believe will not only work but be successful.