The map I'm using doesn't have the county-by-county. Can someone look at the Democrat counties around Atlanta, Macon and Savannah and see how much of that vote is outstanding? That would make a lot of difference as to whether that 118k lead can be made up.
Two elections in a row the Democrats put their faith in the polls instead of into other metrics such as voter enthusiasm. A few of us warned about this in the other thread and were subsequently dogpiled for it.
EDIT: I still think he wins, but this is way closer than it should be.
It's been dozens of posts to this effect, will there ever be an inappropriate time to butt in with a Biden's a bad candidate take? I'm honestly bracing for it in the GDTs
A more progressive candidate beats Trump in which states he has won so far?
I would suggest moderates just want someone they can trust to actually make change, not just hop in the 400hp car (racism car, environmental stewardship car, inequality car), peel off and give everyone the finger with their actions while they lap the track pretending to care about real issues.
538 projected that his votes would catch, then pass, Trump's at about the 2.9-million mark. Right now it's 2.8 million - 2.1 million.
__________________ "I think the eye test is still good, but analytics can sure give you confirmation: what you see...is that what you really believe?" Scotty Bowman, 0 NHL games played
Yeah, that 700,000 deficit is starting to look tougher to overcome. Still definitely not impossible though, and it's just so hard to know given the amount we're out. I'm sticking to my earlier view that I'm just going to shrug my shoulders on all of WI, MI and PA until at least noon tomorrow. Probably longer on PA.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
Yeah, Georgia might be interesting. If you look at the bigger counties with large outstanding votes to count, they're pretty much all heavily Biden. You can see it here (scroll down and you can expand the county list that's sorted by percent reported):
It seems like they may flip it, NYT is giving them a slight edge based on their analysis of remaining votes and putting it as a 63% chance of Biden winning. But definitely too close to call yet.
I think if that happens it will come down to Michigan and all those advance votes left there being enough to turn it.
Pennsylvania gap is pretty big and doesn't seem to be narrowing at all. Wisconsin is narrow but lacks the outstanding votes from big metro areas, few votes left from Milwaukee but not a ton. Both of those seem like longer shots for Biden. NC is a small gap but the remaining votes seem unlikely to break that radically for Biden.
Also, I get a kick out of the mainstream media agenda comments... yes am sure they are all so sad to be reporting the facts and all out to get Trump, he doesn't do any of it to himself. Get out the tinfoil hats.
I don’t know how Georgia will end up but I think we can say with confidence that all of the premature “the polls were wrong” that pointed at Georgia (in this very thread) have not aged well. Polls had Georgia as a toss up. Whoever wins, that’s exactly what it’s turning out to be. Polls are not an exact tool but they got Georgia pretty close to right.
Other states the polls appear to have got pretty much right: Texas, Ohio, and Iowa. Ann Selzer was bang on in Iowa and NYT/Siena called the Texas race just about exactly. Most of the polling had Trump slightly ahead in Ohio.
So far, I’m not at all convinced the polls were all that “wrong” anywhere other than Florida, which is a notoriously hard state to poll.
It's been dozens of posts to this effect, will there ever be an inappropriate time to butt in with a Biden's a bad candidate take? I'm honestly bracing for it in the GDTs
It's all about context. Biden is the best candidate to beat Donald Trump, which is entirely what matters right now. You need to work from that base and express forward.
I'm pretty left leaning (as far as US politics) so Biden was my reserve... I wouldn't have chosen him as "My Guy". However, I still acknowledged him as the best option to beat Donald Trump. Primaries proved it.
Biden is the best avenue towards sanity. No doubt at all.
__________________ "It's a great day for hockey."
-'Badger' Bob Johnson (1931-1991)
"I see as much misery out of them moving to justify theirselves as them that set out to do harm." -Dr. Amos "Doc" Cochran
What is it about the Democrats, their policies, their messaging and their overall game that this keeps happening to them? Trump is a very beatable candidate but his messaging and his voter base does appear to garner a lot more support than people are giving him credit for.
Why is it that the Democrats are missing so many people? So many regular, hard working, law abiding American's? It's kind of perplexing and I think it says more about their party than the Republicans.
I know a lot of people on the political thread hate Trump but if this was a hockey analysis, in 2016 the Democrats missed the open net to win the game. It's not over and we don't know the final result but we are looking at a scenario where a top seed team keeps losing to a lesser opponent and people need to figure out why.
They appear to have been fairly significantly wrong in Ohio. They had Trump as a 1 point favourite or so and he's up by over 8 points right now. That might narrow, but it's still a miss... And that's very bad news for the other outstanding states. Like I say, I'm not saying I have any idea what will happen there but it's a bit of a mess.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
They appear to have been fairly significantly wrong in Ohio. They had Trump as a 1 point favourite or so and he's up by over 8 points right now. That might narrow, but it's still a miss... And that's very bad news for the other outstanding states. Like I say, I'm not saying I have any idea what will happen there but it's a bit of a mess.
If the polls have whiffed on Wisconsin and Michigan as much as they appear to have right now, it's gonna be a really bad look, especially after all of the "we learned from 2016" stuff.
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