Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Antithesis

CorsiHockeyLeague is far from winning the title of 'craziest, most bizarre posts' in this thread. I mean, I question the graphs to some extent, but welcome the additional sources of information. I wonder if the outrage would be the same if Calgary and LA's probabilities were flipped? What if this method suggested the Flames had a 75% change of making the playoffs and Sportsclubstats said 30%? Would we be angry about that or still disregarding those darn advanced stats?

I would still call bull. I would say the chart is still flawed and it would take a miracle for us to get in.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

No. Points are just fine. Corsi helps explain some parts of the game. It does indeed impact the game (or rather the game impacts corsi).

Why would you suggest we remove points? What does that have to do with a probability chart? If the flames don't make the playoffs or do, it will be because they win or lose games. The chart is just a way to help predict who will

Oh, ok. So we have a two point lead on the Kings with the tie breaker, an easier schedule, and their offence has totally dried up but we might as well throw in the towel right? Again, someone explain Montreal to me.

[Antithesis]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I would still call bull. I would say the chart is still flawed and it would take a miracle for us to get in.

And what if they both said 75%?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Here's the EC one, incidentally.



I have dissentowner on ignore now but from quoted posts, he's asking about Montreal... McCurdy's methodology has had Montreal above 80% since mid-January, and doesn't take into account goaltending, which is obviously a big part of Montreal's success so any underrating of their chances is at least partly attributable to that. Big movers here (i.e. the methodology failing) was Boston down and Ottawa up, but in McCurdy's defense, Hammond was tough to predict.

I don't think it's worth responding to his angry protestations or asking him to clarify his views, Resolute; they're clearly emotion-based. Which is fine but it's a different discussion entirely. Best just leave it alone as he's suggested rather than de-rail further to no real purpose.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Antithesis

And what if they both said 75%?

My point is Corsi is not an accurate tool to figure out who is going to make the playoffs. Why have it in a Western Conference playoff race thread?

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

almost anything said in this thread

You must be a real treat to deal with in real life.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Oh, ok. So we have a two point lead on the Kings with the tie breaker, an easier schedule, and their offence has totally dried up but we might as well throw in the towel right? Again, someone explain Montreal to me.

Why would Calgary throw in the towel? Because the Kings have a slightly higher chance at the post season based on a predictive metric? That's a ridiculous. Predictions are just that: Predictions. Underdogs win, favourites lose. Doesn't mean there aren't Underdogs and favourites.

Montreal defying corsi? Historically amazing goaltending

[Antithesis]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

My point is Corsi is not an accurate tool to figure out who is going to make the playoffs. Why have it in a Western Conference playoff race thread?

That's not what I asked. I asked what you would be saying if both this McCurdy fellow and Sportsclubstats had the Flames chances at 75%? Would the information be meaningless and stupid then?

[dissentowner]

At least the guy has it titled properly. @ineffectivemath. Exactly.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Antithesis

That's not what I asked. I asked what you would be saying if both this McCurdy fellow and Sportsclubstats had the Flames chances at 75%? Would the information be meaningless and stupid then?

That wouldn't happen though

[Antithesis]

I give up.

[dissentowner]

All I know is every time I click on this thread all I read about is Corsi discussion so why not change thread title to Corsi discussion thread?
Don't worry, I will leave i alone now and simply abstain from this thread. I thought it was a thread about the WC playoff race, I was clearly mistaken.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Montreal defying corsi? Historically amazing goaltending

They're also just not that bad a possession team. They're a 50.7% fenwick in ES score close situations. Yeah, it's below average, but it's not like we're talking about the 2012-2013 Maple Leafs here.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

All I know is every time I click on this thread all I read about is Corsi discussion so why not change thread title to Corsi discussion thread?
Don't worry, I will leave i alone now and simply abstain from this thread. I thought it was a thread about the WC playoff race, I was clearly mistaken.

It's just a different way of looking at the playoff race, based on a different metric. Sportsclubstats has a lot of the same limitations (ie. not accounting for goaltending matchups or team confidence/unity).

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

You must be a real treat to deal with in real life.

I am, I like to help people out. Here, let me help you out too.
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=29
Now you can go hang out with like minded individuals instead of pathetically hanging out on a rival teams board. You're welcome.

[EldrickOnIce]

Kings top, Flames bottom of 'corsi standings'. It will return results which appear heavily skewed against the Flames.
Do you change a model based on a single anomaly/outlier?

[MissTeeks]

Darren Haynes‏@DarrenWHaynes1m1 minute ago

The NHL season is 166 days old and the #Flames have been in a playoff spot for 120 of those days. That's 72 percent of the season.

[dissentowner]

Anyhow I apologize for arguing about things. I probably went to far, bad day, it happens.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Nope, I wouldn't. Ok, if the chart is so right explain Montreal. Hell, screw points, lets just change the NHL so that it goes by Corsi instead, wins and losses obviously mean jack right?

Montreal has one of the things Corsi and Fenwick can't account for - the world's best goaltender. What we have is an unusually high shooting percentage. And again, I don't get what you are so angry about here. Nobody is suggesting that we "just change the NHL so it goes by Corsi instead". Nor has anyone said "wins and losses obviously mean jack". So please, step back, take a deep breath, and calm down.

Like I said before, these are just prediction models. This model says that teams that possess the puck more tend to win more. It does not say exceptions do not exist - otherwise LA would be 100% and Calgary 0%. What it is saying, really, is that Calgary and LA are exceptions. And the model is right in saying that much. You're only kidding yourself if you think the Flames would routinely make the playoffs drowning in shot attempts the way we are this year. But against all odds - something even the Flames themselves admit in their letter to the team sent with the playoff ticket invoices - Calgary is in this race. Accept this model for what it is - an argument that we have been charmed this year.

[Tsawwassen]

After Monday's games:


1. Minnesota (41-25-7) 38 ROW, 89 pts
Vancouver (42-26-4) 38 ROW, 88 pts--second in the Pacific Division
2. Winnipeg (38-23-12) 31 ROW, 88 pts
Calgary (40-27-6) 36 ROW, 86 pts--third in the Pacific Division
3. Los Angeles (35-23-14) 33 ROW, 84 pts--and fourth in the Pacific Division
4. Dallas (35-28-10) 32 ROW, 80 pts
5. Colorado (33-27-12) 24 ROW, 78 pts
6. San Jose (35-30-8) 32 ROW, 78 pts--and fifth in the Pacific Division

Flames, Jets, Kings, Stars, and Wild won in regulation
Avalanche and Sharks lost in regulation

______________________________________



Eastern conference playoff race


Pittsburgh (40-22-10) 37 ROW, 90 pts
Detroit (39-21-11) 36 ROW, 89 pts--third in the Atlantic Division
1. Washington (39-24-10) 35 ROW, 88 pts
2. Ottawa (37-24-11) 32 ROW, 85 pts--and fourth in the Atlantic Division
3. Boston (36-25-12) 33 ROW, 84 pts--and fifth in the Atlantic Division
4. Florida (33-25-14) 25 ROW, 80 pts

Senators won in regulation