Russia invades Ukraine

[Sluggo]

In the US they capture/kill or recover the body(s) of the shooter(s) in a situation like this. I'll be highly skeptical when this does not happen now in Russia within their capital city.

[CaptainCrunch]

Pretty tough to do now that the Islamic State has taken the credit.

The problem for Russia is that they don't exactly have the resources to prosecute against them where ever they are found.

A large chunk of their air force is tied up in Ukraine, they don't have an active aircraft carrier. They've shot off most of their long range conventional missiles.


They really don't have much in the Black Sea, nor is their navy especially mobile right now. Maybe they can dispatch some of the cruise missile submarines. But with the embargo who knows what those look like in terms of functionality.



I guess they could use their special forces to attack camps and infrastructure. Or just start nuking Islamic State camps where ever they are.

The Russian's will certainly try to blame Biden for not sharing more data on this inevitable attack. though.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Sluggo

In the US they capture/kill or recover the body(s) of the shooter(s) in a situation like this. I'll be highly skeptical when this does not happen now in Russia within their capital city.

I thought I saw video of them arresting one of the shooters.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Pretty tough to do now that the Islamic State has taken the credit.

The problem for Russia is that they don't exactly have the resources to prosecute against them where ever they are found.

Did you forget the whole thing with Russia and Syria? They are all over the middle east. That was the main operating theatre of the Russian armed forces and Wagner before all this started. Their support for Bashar al-Assad is probably what triggered ISIS. Obviously they have withdrawn a bit to focus on Ukraine but I think they are still heavily involved in the area. Maybe ISIS is being smart for once and timed it to hit Russia while they were already hurting and bogged down in Ukraine.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The Russian's will certainly try to blame Biden for not sharing more data on this inevitable attack. though.

I wonder if the US would have shared it with Russian intelligence? The US released their statement 2 weeks ago talking about upcoming terrorist attacks in Moscow and specifically included concerts as one of the potential venues, which is where this happened. I'm assuming when that came out, the Russians likely contacted the US through existing channels to discuss the report given how significant a situation it implied. I believe that official channels are always still open and used behind the scenes between countries regardless the surface-level rivalries happening in public.

[Whynotnow]

Originally Posted by activeStick

I wonder if the US would have shared it with Russian intelligence? The US released their statement 2 weeks ago talking about upcoming terrorist attacks in Moscow and specifically included concerts as one of the potential venues, which is where this happened. I'm assuming when that came out, the Russians likely contacted the US through existing channels to discuss the report given how significant a situation it implied. I believe that official channels are always still open and used behind the scenes between countries regardless the surface-level rivalries happening in public.

I assume back channels of communications still exist, they almost always do. The question is whether they would share this info, and I’m not sure I can land on an answer. On one hand if they share it it’s very clear most likely they aren’t the perpetrators and it prevents some stupid response. On the other hand, Russian destabilization, to a point is good for the us. I’m leaning towards them telling Russia.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

Well now ISIS has claimed responsibility, I wonder if Putin will still spin it to blame Ukraine?

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/22/europ...ing/index.html

It was already being propagated as Ukrainian linked before ISIS immediately took responsibility. Putin didn't even have the chance to get the narrative controlled.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1771268021354443044

This is an odd one and certainly not on my bingo card. The US is now stating they knew ISIS was going to do this and even warned Russia that it was imminent, only for Russia to reject the claim, and now we have this.

What does Putin do here exactly? He's in the middle of a war, the normal reaction would be to go an take out the faction as a show of force.

Even if this is Russia and the initial thought was one of a false flag, terrorist attacks on civilians are always heinous.

[GGG]

Would the US fake that it’s ISIS?

[Cheese]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...4f8VP8t-A&s=19

[Whynotnow]

Originally Posted by GGG

Would the US fake that it’s ISIS?

No, not a chance. They do this and get connected Putin loses it.

As for what Putin does, I doubt he blames it on or accepts ISIS. He will blame Ukraine or the west, helps the narrative better.

[Jacks]

Russia claims that the vehicle had a Ukrainian licence plate? really?

If Ukraine went to the trouble of planning and executing this I doubt they would have all just piled into a mini bus, crossed the border and drove into Moscow with weapons and explosives on board.

[marsplasticeraser]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Russia claims that the vehicle had a Ukrainian licence plate? really?

If Ukraine went to the trouble of planning and executing this I doubt they would have all just piled into a mini bus, crossed the border and drove into Moscow with weapons and explosives on board.

If you were trying to convince idiots that Ukraine did this then you’d need proof an idiot could understand.

And voila, obviously the terrorists are Ukrainian - see look at the licence plates.

[Sluggo]

Plate was planted like American cops plant baggies of weed

[FlamesAddiction]

The death toll is up to 60 now.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2024-03-22/

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by GGG

Would the US fake that it’s ISIS?

The CIA has done worse, so certainly yes, it's a possibility.

[Whynotnow]

Originally Posted by activeStick

The CIA has done worse, so certainly yes, it's a possibility.

Worse possibly, this dangerous, reckless and stupid, not sure about that. If Putin thought the cia was behind this we are talking world war 3 being very likely. I see absolutely no reason for the us to undertake this, it serves them no purpose at all.

[Itse]

While I get why Russians would blame Ukraine, everything about this attack is just so ISIS that I think the story is more likely to be that Ukraine and the West are working with ISIS, so it's "all the same, really".

Of course, there is evidence that the US is still working with Islamic extremist groups in the Middle East (every major power likely works with some of them) so this doesn't even take THAT much spin doctoring.

However, regardless of how they spin this, this attack is still really bad news for Putin.

Putins claim to power has long been that "I get all the power, and in exchange you get a stable and prosperous country". (Classic stuff.)

If his security forces are shown to be weak and ineffective when it comes to protecting Russians, that really undermines his right to rule. It's especially bad that this was Moscow, he's so far been making an effort to protect Moscow and St. Petersburg from the worst of the war.

It's not just that this attack was apparently a success with the perpetrators getting away, this makes the security forces look weak, and everyone who doesn't like Putins regime will look at this and go "maybe we should try something too".
Russian security forces are already spread thin trying to protect a large number of targets against Ukraine. If ISIS enters the scene, they add a completely new and different set of targets to the list of things that need protecting.

I don't think Russians are much different than anyone else when it comes to demanding that their leadership do something when something awful like this happens, and even if Putin retaliates against Ukraine, that doesn't actually catch the people who did this attack or stop further attacks.

...also, eff ISIS.

[Itse]

More than retaliations against Ukrainian civilians (who are at least partially protected by Ukrainian armed forces), I worry that Putin starts to persecute Russians with Ukrainian heritage

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Itse

While I get why Russians would blame Ukraine, everything about this attack is just so ISIS that I think the story is more likely to be that Ukraine and the West are working with ISIS, so it's "all the same, really".

Of course, there is evidence that the US is still working with Islamic extremist groups in the Middle East (every major power likely works with some of them) so this doesn't even take THAT much spin doctoring.

However, regardless of how they spin this, this attack is still really bad news for Putin.

Putins claim to power has long been that "I get all the power, and in exchange you get a stable and prosperous country". (Classic stuff.)

If his security forces are shown to be weak and ineffective when it comes to protecting Russians, that really undermines his right to rule. It's especially bad that this was Moscow, he's so far been making an effort to protect Moscow and St. Petersburg from the worst of the war.

It's not just that this attack was apparently a success with the perpetrators getting away, this makes the security forces look weak, and everyone who doesn't like Putins regime will look at this and go "maybe we should try something too".
Russian security forces are already spread thin trying to protect a large number of targets against Ukraine. If ISIS enters the scene, they add a completely new and different set of targets to the list of things that need protecting.

I don't think Russians are much different than anyone else when it comes to demanding that their leadership do something when something awful like this happens, and even if Putin retaliates against Ukraine, that doesn't actually catch the people who did this attack or stop further attacks.

...also, eff ISIS.

Just said on cnn that the US and 5 other countries warned Russia on March 7th of this attack, yeah he looks more than weak.

[Snuffleupagus]

Death toll up to 115 now