*Updated* Ongoing Bank of Canada Benchmark Rate Announcements

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

Also by not commenting, Yoho saves himself the effort to fend off the usual gang of one siders waiting to pounce.

But he gets duped by misinformation. The responses typically contain evidence to support their counter claims.

It's not a matter of both sides; many sides. This is a discussion forum. A typical approach to a post would be to state your opinion and then back it up with evidence/support. Yoho typically posts just the "support" with no discussion. And then when engaged he tucks tail and runs because his "support" is often dubious or just flat-out demonstrably wrong.

If you can support Yoho's claims then you should. It would be helpful to penetrate our group-think bubble on CP if somebody was mentally equipped to stand behind and prove their stance that runs counter to our leftist hive mind.

Good luck, though. If you think Yoho is posting good information, best have your posts well thought out because if your thinking is consistent with his, $100 says you are getting duped by misinformation just as hardcore as he is.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

In the case of Yoho, I would assume his opinion coincides with the link he is posting. Whether he tries to justify it further or not by commenting, I think his posts are adding to the thread...probably because a lot of the time I agree with him.

I mostly disagree with him, but I still think his posts are at least as on topic as the rest of us. I just don't see what the big fuss is, and I'm not even sure why this comes up all the time.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Slava

I mostly disagree with him, but I still think his posts are at least as on topic as the rest of us. I just don't see what the big fuss is, and I'm not even sure why this comes up all the time.

People hate being confronted with opinions they disagree with.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

People hate being confronted with opinions they disagree with.

Pretty much. Lots of people here make low-effort posts and refuse to engage in good faith about the subjects they link to. But nobody cares so long as they agree with the content.

[PeteMoss]

http://lookatthisterriblepostabovemine.com/


/greentext

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I'm not really sure what the objectionable opinion is here... that the BOC will raise rates on july 12? That doesn't even seem to be particularly controversial. It would be a surprise if they didn't raise it to 5% at this point.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1676935722425516032

https://twitter.com/user/status/1676977582762254337

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by Yoho

https://twitter.com/user/status/1676935722425516032

https://twitter.com/user/status/1676977582762254337

Ya, higher for longer is pretty much a certain thing at this point. Wish I had done a 3-year rather than my 2-year fixed last year September on renewal for the rental property. System is going to break at some point and these will come down. The question is whether that's in 2024, 2025 or 2026.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Economy is booming eh..that's why they may potentially keep raising the rates.

Looking more and more like we may have the soft landing that is very hard to accomplish.

Food & shelter, part of our 'basic needs' are becoming more and more expensive each day, and constant rate increases are not helping.

I fail to see how even more rate increases are going to help this issue.

What Canada needs is a business environment that encourages more competition in every sector, and less government sleeping with corporations to help protect industry profits.

[The Fisher Account]

Originally Posted by Azure

Food & shelter, part of our 'basic needs' are becoming more and more expensive each day, and constant rate increases are not helping.

I fail to see how even more rate increases are going to help this issue.

What Canada needs is a business environment that encourages more competition in every sector, and less government sleeping with corporations to help protect industry profits.

This will likely never happen though.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Azure

Food & shelter, part of our 'basic needs' are becoming more and more expensive each day, and constant rate increases are not helping.

I fail to see how even more rate increases are going to help this issue.

What Canada needs is a business environment that encourages more competition in every sector, and less government sleeping with corporations to help protect industry profits.

It's all kind of one big issue.

The cost of labour, capital, and rent is higher due to housing shortages. You can't find people to work for lower salaries if their entire paycheque is going towards rent. The people who would have formerly worked for low wages are forced out of the cities, as they become places only the rich can afford to live in.

On top of that, people are less able to make the jump to entrepreneurship if they have high costs of living and less ability to save.

Canada is keeping its economy going by importing labour and wealth. This leaves housing, itself, as a major industry and means of building capital for Canadians. Not healthy.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Azure

I fail to see how even more rate increases are going to help this issue.

Hopefully housing prices retreat, a lot. It's a huge elephant in the room that needs to be addressed so we don't tie up all of our capital in the country in bubble that produces no value.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

Hopefully housing prices retreat, a lot. It's a huge elephant in the room that needs to be addressed so we don't tie up all of our capital in the country in bubble that produces no value.

Housing prices will only retreat so far when there is a shortage.

That being said, we are definitely seeing housing prices stall out. In the face of inflation, that amounts to an effective decrease in price.

[#-3]

I paid a $2000 penalty to get a 5 years fixed at 3% 1.5 years ago. just hoping this turns around by the start of 2027.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by blankall

Housing prices will only retreat so far when there is a shortage.

Agreed. Allegedly it takes ~7 years to get a large residential project done end to end in Vancouver now. ~3 years in Calgary. That's going to make it pretty hard to move past our supply crunch and deal with situations such as a mass influx of refugees from Syria or Ukraine.

*I'm no expert, but have a neighbour in the biz that mentioned those timelines.

[nik-]

I'd be surprised if refugees made up 20% of our immigration.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

Agreed. Allegedly it takes ~7 years to get a large residential project done end to end in Vancouver now. ~3 years in Calgary. That's going to make it pretty hard to move past our supply crunch and deal with situations such as a mass influx of refugees from Syria or Ukraine.

*I'm no expert, but have a neighbour in the biz that mentioned those timelines.

There are definitely a lot of people coming in. Net over 1,000,000 new residents per year. I doubt a huge proportion are refugees. Canada is just letting lots of people in. We have a naturally shrinking population, due to low birth rate, but the federal government has a plan to almost triple the population by the end of the century. 100,000,000 Canadian by 2100 is the goal.....they don't, however, have a plan to increase housing supply.

Canada also doesn't seem to have any focus on who they are letting in. Canada desperately needs skilled construction workers, childcare workers, healthcare workers, etc...we don't seem to be addressing that need either, and just bringing in more people to lean on those services.

Canada has decided they like the idea of 100,000,000 million Canadians. They, however, also don't like the idea of repurposing any farmland for residential use or any nature for farmland. Most cities are also very hesitant to increase density.

I'm all for immigration, in fact, as stated, Canada desperately needs many people to work in various areas of the workforce and we need more young people as birthrates are below replacement levels. There clearly needs to be more focus and planning going on though.

Back on topic, housing prices will not be going down drastically as long as these conditions exist.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by nik-

I'd be surprised if refugees made up 20% of our immigration.

Definitely not that much, I think it's ~200,000 Ukrainians that have moved here since the start of the war. Call that 50,000-100,000 housing units needed. Canada typically builds ~200,000 units per year.

I have no clue how many of the Ukrainian immigrants took "normal" immigration paths and would have been filled by someone anyway, and how many are "extra", but it seems like a decent number of people to try absorb in relation to our typical increase in housing supply?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by blankall

Canada also doesn't seem to have any focus on who they are letting in. Canada desperately needs skilled construction workers, childcare workers, healthcare workers, etc...we don't seem to be addressing that need either, and just bringing in more people to lean on those services.

We are targeting those immigrants. But so are the U.S., Australia, the UK, Germany, etc. There are only so many nurses from the Philippines and house framers from Ukraine to go around.

A sensible policy would be to tie immigration levels to a four-year running average of housing starts. So 300k immigrants at 150-200k average housing starts in the last four years, 400k immigrants at 200-250k housing starts, 500k at 250-300k housing starts, etc.

I doubt it would be politically feasible, though.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by blankall

There are definitely a lot of people coming in. Net over 1,000,000 new residents per year. I doubt a huge proportion are refugees. Canada is just letting lots of people in. We have a naturally shrinking population, due to low birth rate, but the federal government has a plan to almost triple the population by the end of the century. 100,000,000 Canadian by 2100 is the goal.....they don't, however, have a plan to increase housing supply.

Canada also doesn't seem to have any focus on who they are letting in. Canada desperately needs skilled construction workers, childcare workers, healthcare workers, etc...we don't seem to be addressing that need either, and just bringing in more people to lean on those services.

Canada has decided they like the idea of 100,000,000 million Canadians. They, however, also don't like the idea of repurposing any farmland for residential use or any nature for farmland. Most cities are also very hesitant to increase density.

I'm all for immigration, in fact, as stated, Canada desperately needs many people to work in various areas of the workforce and we need more young people as birthrates are below replacement levels. There clearly needs to be more focus and planning going on though.

Back on topic, housing prices will not be going down drastically as long as these conditions exist.

The Canadian immigration points system is designed to target at need professions with fairly significant boosts though it’s been years since I have looked at it so don’t know the current state. It is a merit based system unlike the more random US system.