[Trade] Elias Lindholm + Noah Hanifin to Flames for D. Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, & Adam Fox

[DeluxeMoustache]

So the Flames were awful last year. Dougie let guys skate past him too often in the d zone. Lots of people noticed. Couldn’t be trusted to kill penalties.
Ferland is not a consistent impact player on his own. Can play with good linemates but isn’t driving the bus. He also is at or near his peak now, at least in terms of statistical probabilities. Inconsistent and not the primary driver
Fox - simply enough, wasn’t signing.

You get back two guys who were each 5th overall in their draft class, are still young and have been playing on a bad team. Still, they have been productive and are yet to enter their peak years.

I like the trade a lot.

[sketchyt]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I doubt it'll make me change my mind

That’s about the only thing anyone is sure of when it comes to your opinions.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Itse

Comments from Hurricanes fans about Lindholm and Hanifin. Very little positive for a Flames fan honestly...

I, for one, don’t put much stock in the reactions of fans to a trade right after it was made. But I do think if both fan bases are largely satisfied then this was probably a fair deal. That is my sense here.

[Serapth]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I have a nasty feeling that Ferland is going to be the next Matt Beleskey. Probably good the Flames dealt him now.

We went through this whole Ferland thing once already... we just called him Colborne last time.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Yeah, because an organization that trades a good young player never tries to justify it by citing extraneous circumstances. That never happens. Who's Tyler Seguin?

Anyway, regardless of whether you believe that about Fox, the initial post made it very clear that I think this is a bad hockey trade. In terms of hockey playing ability, potential risks and rewards, the Flames lose. Of course people want to talk about other factors - that's how motivated reasoning works. You don't want to think X, so you look for reasons that X can be questioned and latch onto them. It's actually a good sign of a lost trade - when you see that reaction happen shortly after the immediate shock and disappointment of the fanbase wears off. "No, you guys, I was thinking about it and it's actually not that bad because..."

Just listen to yourself trying to spin this. Hilarious. Let me try... "The Hurricanes are acquiring a legitimate top-pairing d-man entering his prime who can run their blue line for ten years, who's currently on an awesome sweetheart contract, along with a sure-fire 20 goal scorer and a bona fide blue chip blue line prospect, and all they gave up in exchange was two underachieving middling players who have had every opportunity to succeed and instead have posted a combined -109".

That analysis isn't any more or less slanted than what you posted. You can make any trade look good or bad if you want to cast it in a negative or positive light, as you prefer. I'm looking at who the players the Flames got are today, based on a significant sample size of games. It's not ugly, but it's not pretty either. They're fine, upper middle of the roster players. Would it be an absolutely shocking, William Karlsson-esque surprise if they play better than that now that they're Flames? No. Is it a good bet that they will? I personally don't think so.

Anyway. I'm interested to see what they end up signing for. I doubt it'll make me change my mind, but it's an important factor in evaluating this.

That's one take but I think you have it backwards. What happened was people saw that Fox was added and thought initially that this was an over payment. After taking time to "reflect" some people realized there was more to it, Your point that this was an indication we lost the trade is just your opinion and not very founded. I think some people over reacted initially because fans can sometimes be emotionally invested; Once given more information that perception changed.

Who won the trade? I wouldn't base that on peoples reactions but lets wait and see.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Wolfman

I loved Ferly as much as the next guy but it's being made out like he's irreplaceable. Let's be serious here. For a guy who is pegged as rugged and fights a lot...he had 24 PIMS in 77 games this year. Johnny had 2 more PIMS. Let that sink in. His physical style was declining with his recent concussions.

Ferland definitely seemed like an overall declining asset to me. He was very valuable at one point, because he was cheap and bright physical play. As you say, not only was his physical play declining, but he was also due for a large raise. Someone will overpay for him next summer.

[Serapth]

Originally Posted by blankall

Ferland definitely seemed like an overall declining asset to me. He was very valuable at one point, because he was cheap and bright physical play. As you say, not only was his physical play declining, but he was also due for a large raise. Someone will overpay for him next summer.

If he puts up a 45+pt season, he’s in for a 4 or 5 mill UFA payday, which is nuts. Then again, without top line players, that’s a big if. I like the guy so I hope it happens.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Fun fact: every player the Flames dealt today could be a unrestricted free agent in the next 2 years. Including Dougie. If he wasnt happy here, as it seems, would he have re-signed?

Even if you wanted to look at it from this perspective, first, wouldn't you want to get players actually under contract rather than two RFA's? What do you think they're going to sign for, term and dollars? I have very little idea - I would ordinarily say that both of them turning down contract offers from the Canes a few days ago is a serious warning sign, but I don't know what to make of the current Canes management strategy.

More importantly though, if this is the motivation for making the trade, it shouldn't affect their trade value, with the result that you shouldn't be losing the trade from a pure hockey perspective. Do other GMs know you're going to have trouble signing Fox? Is there some common knowledge that Hamilton is going to be asking for some exorbitant contract after 2021? There's no indication of that. So why would you not be able to get fair value for these guys? Surely you could have found that value somewhere, in some form.

I mean, this doesn't even really address the team's key weakness - trading a 30-40 pt RW for a 40-50 pt C/RW, while downgrading your defense's transition game. To me, Lindholm seems like a potentially good fit with Backlund and Tkachuk, but you still don't have a first line RW. Maybe that deal is still in the works... Lots of summer left, I suppose. I'm just concerned that this is supposed to be that fix, and I don't think it is.

[FiveSeven]

Not gonna lie, Hamilton and Ferland were my 2nd and 3rd most favorite players for the Flames. That being said, I woke up and seen the trade and was upset.

After I read 1000+ posts lol, from an asset management standpoint, the trade rocks. You get a better forward for a way longer period of time. You get a D-man that is projected to be better overall than Hamilton (fewer goals against is a good thing too.)


From a fan standpoint, I've warmed up to it and definitely like it. Dougie was soft and always made soft plays. He never had an edge to him. Offensively I enjoyed his game, but he's a DEFENSEman. Hanafin should be able to come close to Hamilton's output, if not, I'm sure he can be better defensively. So I consider it an offset overall skill wise. A positive with asset management and locker room chemistry in mind.

I always thought Ferland could become a premier power forward 40+ point player, but for every incredible game, he would have, the next 4 it seemed like he couldn't figure ANYTHING out. Then he would tease you with a streak as if he figured it out. None the less, it seems like he couldn't keep up with first-line duties. He COULD be a 2nd line RW, but more likely a 3rd/4th liner. Lindholm is a better overall player and is more versatile which is useful in itself. If he gets a stronger more powerful shot, which if anything is something you have full control over as a player, then he should easily put up 20 with nasty passes coming from Johnny & Mony. Or even Chuk & Backs.

No point debating fox. Took a step back but so did his team, needs work, and wasn't likely to sign.

IMO A good hockey trade, a rarity. I honestly put it at 50/50.
I Do think the Flames got better as a team as of now and the future, so I consider it a win solely based off of that.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Even if you wanted to look at it from this perspective, first, wouldn't you want to get players actually under contract rather than two RFA's?

The reason why these players were even available is because of their contract dispute. The key for me is that they are under team control for much longer. This is an absolutely KEY part of the value in the deal that is being under valued.

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

What do you think they're going to sign for, term and dollars? I have very little idea - I would ordinarily say that both of them turning down contract offers from the Canes a few days ago is a serious warning sign, but I don't know what to make of the current Canes management strategy.

Meh. We often see players in a contract dispute get dealt and sign reasonable deals right away. Dougie did it here.

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

More importantly though, if this is the motivation for making the trade, it shouldn't affect their trade value, with the result that you shouldn't be losing the trade from a pure hockey perspective. Do other GMs know you're going to have trouble signing Fox? Is there some common knowledge that Hamilton is going to be asking for some exorbitant contract after 2021? There's no indication of that. So why would you not be able to get fair value for these guys? Surely you could have found that value somewhere, in some form.

They did find value. In this deal. They acquired two highly drafted young core players. They don't come cheap. What on earth do you mean they could have found value? They did!

And I imagine as soon as Fox went back for another year in college, despite his hockey being good enough to turn pro, that it sent a signal to the other GMs that there could be an issue.
As for Hamilton, UFA status is key. Either you pay those guys big bank or you lose them.

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I mean, this doesn't even really address the team's key weakness - trading a 30-40 pt RW for a 40-50 pt C/RW, while downgrading your defense's transition game. To me, Lindholm seems like a potentially good fit with Backlund and Tkachuk, but you still don't have a first line RW. Maybe that deal is still in the works... Lots of summer left, I suppose. I'm just concerned that this is supposed to be that fix, and I don't think it is.

Ferland got his points by playing with two elite offensive players. If Lindholm gets that same chance I think we'll see him outproduce Ferland while also be a superior two way player. Comparing points is a pretty surface level approach to assessing the players.

[Dajazz]

I think he overpaid, again, like Hamonic.

Lindholm is meh, middle six guy. Bennett gets bust status for scoring 18 in a year. Lindholm's best is 16 - and he's as inconsistent as Ferland. He gets zero press here in Sweden, even as the 5th overall which is a big thing over here. My take - he's Mikal Frolik 2.0, but here's hoping I'm wrong.

Hamilton for Hanifin. Perhaps even value, or not. Hamilton is on a SUPER contract and just scored 17g while getting low PP time, lead league in possession (as a pairing) and has finished in the top 15 for Norris voting twice. That's quite the expectation BT is putting on Hanifin.

So, it's a trade for potential. Perhaps it was necessary, but the price looks waaaay to steep for me even if I like it from a Hockey standpoint.

[Strange Brew]

Fox is the tipping point on this deal to many. Now that I hear about the likely issues in signing him, I’m not upset at him being included in this trade, in so much as I’m disappointed that a valuable prospect turned out to be not so valuable.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I mean, this doesn't even really address the team's key weakness - trading a 30-40 pt RW for a 40-50 pt C/RW

Since when is Ferland a 30-40 point guy?

He’s scored more than 25 points once in his career. He’s 26.

Acting like Lindholm is just a minor offensive upgrade is a very very bad take.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Fox is the tipping point on this deal to many. Now that I hear about the likely issues in signing him, I’m not upset at him being included in this trade, in so much as I’m disappointed that a valuable prospect turned out to be not so valuable.

Really it was a 3rd round pick from 2 years ago that turned out to be a valuable chip in this trade. Credit to the scouts for that and even though Fox was not going to sign he helped make this trade possible.

[blender]

Originally Posted by Serapth

We went through this whole Ferland thing once already... we just called him Colborne last time.

Too soon to make that call.

But it is an educated opinion, I will grant you that.

[Husky]

Fox is the wildcard. But he needs to make big improvements on his skating to be effective at the nhl level.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Dajazz

I think he overpaid, again, like Hamonic.

Lindholm is meh, middle six guy. Bennett gets bust status for scoring 18 in a year. Lindholm's best is 16 - and he's as inconsistent as Ferland. He gets zero press here in Sweden, even as the 5th overall which is a big thing over here. My take - he's Mikal Frolik 2.0, but here's hoping I'm wrong.

Hamilton for Hanifin. Perhaps even value, or not. Hamilton is on a SUPER contract and just scored 17g while getting low PP time, lead league in possession (as a pairing) and has finished in the top 15 for Norris voting twice. That's quite the expectation BT is putting on Hanifin.

So, it's a trade for potential. Perhaps it was necessary, but the price looks waaaay to steep for me even if I like it from a Hockey standpoint.

Bennett puts up far less points though and has declined since. Lindholm has gotten better and been consistently reliable to put up a point every second game essentially for three seasons now. Is 22 and still on the way up. Has actually been able to prove he can play center if needed.

Dougie is a good, productive player. I wont deny that. But Hanifin projects to be better than dougie offensively if you compare stats at the same age and if it is true that he has more edge and defensive responsibility to his game then that's potential that isn't a poor idea to gamble on. We've bought more time to work with as well. The flames weren't poised to win a cup in the next season as is..

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Really it was a 3rd round pick from 2 years ago that turned out to be a valuable chip in this trade. Credit to the scouts for that and even though Fox was not going to sign he helped make this trade possible.

Not disagreeing with you, I just don’t really like the focus on where people where drafted, both with the players acquired and players given up. How they played as 17 year olds just not that relevant anymore.

But yeah Fox was a good pick performance wise.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Not disagreeing with you, I just don’t really like the focus on where people where drafted, both with the players acquired and players given up. How they played as 17 year olds just not that relevant anymore.

But yeah Fox was a good pick performance wise.

Are we supposed to boo him when he makes it to the NHL in another team in a couple of years?

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Are we supposed to boo him when he makes it to the NHL in another team in a couple of years?

You mean if one of us happens to catch an AHL game in a couple years?