Wild Card Race (Western Conference) - Page 67 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Street Pharmacist · 03-23-2015, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Textcritic

No method better than this specific chart? Really??

Did you read the methodology of the chart? Tested against other Metrics including goal differential and wins/losses, it was shown to be more accurate.
Lots of unknowns still exist, but it's likely the best we have. That's big picture. I still contend there are teams that by nature don't follow, but there's not enough work done or evidence yet to prove that

polak · 03-23-2015, 03:46 PM

Isn't goal differential by the far the most predictive on the short term?

Enoch Root · 03-23-2015, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

You're right; it wasn't a serious question. I don't actually think you forgot that I've consistently pointed out that things like goaltending, special teams play, players with higher or lower than average finishing ability and injuries (not to mention random variance) can lead to different results than possession stats would lead one to expect. You've demonstrated you're capable of reading and understanding my posts. So the fact that you would act as though I'd never said anything of the sort yields the obvious conclusion that you're doing so for rhetorical effect, rather than honestly responding to my actual views.

Better predictor of results than any other available method that McCurdy tried using and certainly better than intuition over the long term. Over the short term, the things that aren't taken account of there - including just random puck bounces - play a larger role in determining results. Hence, if you're playing fifty games between the Blackhawks and the Sabres, the methodology used in the chart would lead you to pick the Hawks, and being wrong in that prediction is far less likely than it would be if you were to pick the Hawks to win one game over the Sabres. That's an oversimplification but it demonstrates why, as we get closer to the finish line, the "best guess" provided is more prone to error.

You have also claimed that possession stats are the best predictors of future success.

Before you were challenged to put up your own cash, you defended this chart vehemently.

Now, you seem to be of the opinion that other factors seem to be more important.

Like Street Pharmacist said: "it's shown to be more accurate". Right? Right?

CorsiHockeyLeague · 03-23-2015, 03:54 PM

You could have challenged me to put up my own cash before and I wouldn't have done it. Why is this determinative of anything? This is an incredibly weak argument.

Other factors besides possession are important to determining wins, as I have said all along. Possession metrics become less reliable predictors over small sample sizes. I'm sure you're perfectly capable of understanding this, and your taking this tack is an attempt to win an internet debate. Go nuts, this is a waste of time.

dissentowner · 03-23-2015, 03:58 PM

Yay, it's back to the Corsi argument again. That garbage has no bearing on the WC playoff race, why does it keep bubbling up?

Igster · 03-23-2015, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Yay, it's back to the Corsi argument again. That garbage has no bearing on the WC playoff race, why does it keep bubbling up?

Um, a guy named CorsiHockeyLeague?

CorsiHockeyLeague · 03-23-2015, 04:01 PM

To be fair, all I do is post a chart... it's the mob of people like dissentowner who have an aneurysm upon being forced to look upon it that lead to the argument. As I've said before, this board does have an ignore feature; I should know, I'm using it.

dissentowner · 03-23-2015, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Igster

Um, a guy named CorsiHockeyLeague?

Just ignore him and his chart, the guy is trolling with it because it has us missing. Shouldn't Montreal be missing in the East too?

polak · 03-23-2015, 04:05 PM

and I thought I hated advanced stats...

dissentowner · 03-23-2015, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

To be fair, all I do is post a chart... it's the mob of people like dissentowner who have an aneurysm upon being forced to look upon it that lead to the argument. As I've said before, this board does have an ignore feature; I should know, I'm using it.

But you post the chart to get a reaction. Your chart is inaccurate and has zero bearing on the actual WC playoff race. None. It means nothing and is highly inaccurate. All it does is give you an opportunity to derail the thread.

dissentowner · 03-23-2015, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by polak

and I thought I hated advanced stats...

You hate everything.

CorsiHockeyLeague · 03-23-2015, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dissentowner

But you post the chart to get a reaction.

I post the chart to provide the information, not to get a reaction. If I were to choose a reaction, it would be reasoned discussion, not this nonsense.

Quote:

Your chart is inaccurate and has zero bearing on the actual WC playoff race. None. It means nothing and is highly inaccurate.

This is your opinion based on no data and no expertise. It's no more valuable than some random on HFboard saying "the Leafs are going to win the Stanley Cup in 2018". If anything has no bearing on the WC race, it is the opinions of individual fans.

terminator · 03-23-2015, 04:09 PM

dissentowner · 03-23-2015, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I post the chart to provide the information, not to get a reaction. If I were to choose a reaction, it would be reasoned discussion, not this nonsense.

This is your opinion based on no data and no expertise.

The data CLEARLY proves your chart is wrong. You can tin foil hat it any way you like but the proof is in the standings. Your chart is like witch doctor medicine compared to actual science. Corsi has no bearing on NHL standings, none.

CorsiHockeyLeague · 03-23-2015, 04:13 PM

... Yeah, I can't sum up that post any better than Terminator just did.

dissentowner · 03-23-2015, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

... Yeah, I can't sum up that post any better than Terminator just did.

Me neither, so can we talk about the actual relevant thread topic instead of Corsi? That would be excellent!

Resolute 14 · 03-23-2015, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dissentowner

The data CLEARLY proves your chart is wrong. You can tin foil hat it any way you like but the proof is in the standings. Your chart is like witch doctor medicine compared to actual science. Corsi has no bearing on NHL standings, none.

I'm curious. How does the data "CLEARLY" prove the chart wrong when the chart has 7/8 playoff teams in the correct order of standings?

Face facts dude. The only reason you are offended by that chart is the fact that it's prediction disagrees with your emotional desire to see the Flames in the playoffs. If it had us ahead of LA and Sportsclubstats had us behind them, you would be ranting all the same, just at a different target.

Seriously, you are just acting butthurt because you can, and because you want to.

dissentowner · 03-23-2015, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I'm curious. How does the data "CLEARLY" prove the chart wrong when the chart has 7/8 playoff teams in the correct order of standings?

Face facts dude. The only reason you are offended by that chart is the fact that it's prediction disagrees with your emotional desire to see the Flames in the playoffs. If it had us ahead of LA and Sportsclubstats had us behind them, you would be ranting all the same, just at a different target.

Seriously, you are just acting butthurt because you can, and because you want to.

Nope, I wouldn't. Ok, if the chart is so right explain Montreal. Hell, screw points, lets just change the NHL so that it goes by Corsi instead, wins and losses obviously mean jack right?

Antithesis · 03-23-2015, 04:29 PM

CorsiHockeyLeague is far from winning the title of 'craziest, most bizarre posts' in this thread. I mean, I question the graphs to some extent, but welcome the additional sources of information. I wonder if the outrage would be the same if Calgary and LA's probabilities were flipped? What if this method suggested the Flames had a 75% change of making the playoffs and Sportsclubstats said 30%? Would we be angry about that or still disregarding those darn advanced stats?

Street Pharmacist · 03-23-2015, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Nope, I wouldn't. Ok, if the chart is so right explain Montreal. Hell, screw points, lets just change the NHL so that it goes by Corsi instead, wins and losses obviously mean jack right?

No. Points are just fine. Corsi helps explain some parts of the game. It does indeed impact the game (or rather the game impacts corsi).

Why would you suggest we remove points? What does that have to do with a probability chart? If the flames don't make the playoffs or do, it will be because they win or lose games. The chart is just a way to help predict who will