Russia invades Ukraine

[btimbit]

I have no doubt Putin will "win", but there's been protests after pretty much every election for the last 10 years. I imagine these ones will be big

[Fuzz]

Voting for the opposition gets you sent to the front line in Ukraine with nothing but what you bring with you. Voting for Putin gets you the same thing, but they give you a set of "lightly used" fatigues too.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Jacks

I've never really followed Russian elections, just assumed they are corrupt.
Will another candidate be allowed to run?

I read something earlier that he hadn't met the requirements for signatures from the right number of regions or something like that.

Putin likes the appearance of an actual election, so there's going to be an election. Putin always runs as an "independent", then there's a communist candidate and a far-right candidate (their party is funnily enough called the "Liberal Democratic Party"), there's some relatively centrist-right candidates and some supposedly liberal candidate.

It all looks very election like, although Putin doesn't for example debate the other candidates or do anything that would put them at his level

It's actually almost a tradition at this point for a more or less openly actual anti-Putin candidate or candidates to try to run, but they're denied. The actual election is very much just for show. Only people who are not a real threat are allowed to run, and I've heard the TV debates are kind of a gong show.

I don't know this Boris Nadezhin, he's been in politics for quite a while but isn't super well known, and since Russian politics are so often not what they appear on the surface, you can never be sure what's the story here.

A lot of people seem to be guessing that he kind of sneaked in through the first phase of the registration (where you get permission to start collecting signatures to eventually become an official candidate) and was supposed to be an inoffensive liberal candidate, but immediately went off script.

I think most people expect that he won't be allowed to actually run.

If he does run will there actually be a free vote that will be counted fairly?

I just envision a "free" election where you have to mark your ballot in front of the party officer and if you don't vote Putin that they send you to another line to get your identification recorded or something. Or that those ballot boxes get lost or damaged in an unfortunate accident. Or that the other candidate suffers a fluke defenistration.

It's not a real election, Putin will "win with a landslide" as always. The process will however look very legitimate on the surface. There's debates and campaigns, and you can go and vote for whoever you want.

Putin will get the most votes anyway. Possibly fairly (he still has quite a lot of legitimate support), but you can't really know how the vote really went.

This Nadezhin guy is probably already expecting either a tragic accident or some made up criminal charges.

EDIT: This Nadezhin guy does have some track record for being anti-Putin. He's been previously working with a vocal Putin-critic and journalist Boris Nemtsov, who was assassinated in 2015.

These are brave people.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by btimbit

I have no doubt Putin will "win", but there's been protests after pretty much every election for the last 10 years. I imagine these ones will be big

I think a big reason for Nadezhins attempt to become a candidate is that it allows people to somewhat openly protest with relatively low danger of being arrested. You can show up at his events and give your signature to his candidacy, and get away with it.

Putin does like the show of a fair election.

The crackdowns on protests have been pretty extreme during the war, so a lot of people will likely be too afraid to actually go out in open protest.

At this point, it's probably safer to be a terrorist in the night time than a protester in daytime. A Russian artist just got 7 years in prison for posting three anti-war stickers in a grocery store

[burn_this_city]

I'm skeptical there will be protests this time, attending one and being grabbed by OMON probably guarantees mobilization.

[Ozy_Flame]

Tucker Carlson announced he will officially be interviewing Vladimir Putin. How lovely of him to follow-up a multi-night ideology love-in and political extravaganza with Danielle Smith.

I am sure the State Department, CIA, and FBI will be watching nice and closely.

[Muta]

Ozy - remember, it's Marlaina from now on.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Muta

Ozy - remember, it's Marlaina from now on.

Would you happen to know her Cherokee name? I want to make sure I get that right out of respect. Her great-grandfather was Ukrainian, but I'm not sure that matters with the type of pro-Russian people she's been fraternizing with lately.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Would you happen to know her Cherokee name? I want to make sure I get that right out of respect. Her great-grandfather was Ukrainian, but I'm not sure that matters with the type of pro-Russian people she's been fraternizing with lately.

Something with next Tuesday in it.

[Cheese]

Kyiv hit overnight

https://twitter.com/user/status/1755172825369894993


Orcs still taking a pounding

https://twitter.com/user/status/1755144846992380345


Sweden to send more CV-90 IFVs

https://twitter.com/user/status/1755161943185277057


Ukrainians using jet drones

https://twitter.com/user/status/1755140210667512187

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Anyone manage to stomach watching the Tucker Carlson / Putin interview? I don't really want to watch it but I'm kind of curious just how fawning it is.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Anyone manage to stomach watching the Tucker Carlson / Putin interview? I don't really want to watch it but I'm kind of curious just how fawning it is.

I tried to look for a summary earlier but I guess the interview isn't coming out until tomorrow

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by btimbit

I tried to look for a summary earlier but I guess the interview isn't coming out until tomorrow

It's hard to get a clean transcript when someone is talking with their mouth full.

[Firebot]

Events are very dire for Ukraine right now, Avdiivka, one of the most heavily defended areas are being overrun by sheer numbers, and it seems that Ukraine is out of ammunition with Republicans in Congress blocking assistance. Some of the reports I have heard are sobering, UA positions being overrun and unable to retaliate due to lack of artillery.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Events are very dire for Ukraine right now, Avdiivka, one of the most heavily defended areas are being overrun by sheer numbers, and it seems that Ukraine is out of ammunition with Republicans in Congress blocking assistance. Some of the reports I have heard are sobering, UA positions being overrun and unable to retaliate due to lack of artillery.

Do you have a link to this?

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by sliver

do you have a link to this?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1755148944118538748

[Jacks]

There was a field report a couple weeks ago on CNN. The reporter was filming ammo deliveries and units were getting only a handful of shells and some of them were smoke rounds. Was CNN skewing it? maybe but I don't doubt that there are big shortages overall. You'd think that even with the US being such a crapshow that the rest of the free world would step up a bit to fill the gap in the short term.

[Firebot]

The US hasn't approved any new large packages for Ukraine in months, and what it has sent is minimal.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ry-aid-weapons

Germany has become the main supplier to Ukraine during this Congress stalemate but Ukraine needs much more

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ith-ammunition

Zelensky is pleading with Canada to get our decommissioned rockets. Anything is better than nothing.

https://globalnews.ca/news/10271532/...-crv7-rockets/

Also of note is how Kyiv got attacked yesterday, Russia is replenishing itself with North Korean and Iranian arms and Ukraine is slowly losing the ability to defend and it becomes evident in the numbers.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...les-death-toll

Ukraine’s air force said on Telegram that Russia had launched 20 drones, and 44 missiles of various types in its attacks across the country. It said it had intercepted 15 of the drones and 29 of the missiles.

The continued attacks come at a time when a major US aid package for Ukraine is in doubt, with its passage through the Senate likely to be blocked by Republicans. Ukrainian troops on the front lines report a shortage of ammunition and exhaustion.

“If you ask a soldier at the front what he needs most now, the answer will be shells,” foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba told the visiting Borrell on Wednesday, calling for “urgent steps” to increase deliveries.

“The scale of the war and Russia’s use of artillery reached a level for which, let’s be honest, the European defence industry was not ready,” he said.

Interception numbers, which was once well above 90% is now below 75%.

[Cheese]

Colonel-General Syrskyi appointed Commander in Chief

https://twitter.com/user/status/1755637270315446363

https://twitter.com/user/status/1755640887630029145


Hertling comments on the change

https://twitter.com/user/status/1755646861916983614

https://twitter.com/user/status/1755647981200502938


Drone efficiency

https://twitter.com/user/status/1755569110912553403


BAVOVNA!!

https://twitter.com/user/status/1755652277392511080

[Itse]

Starting to look like Putin doesn't even need to win the US presidential election, since he already has the Republicans on his side and can simply use them to block US military aid.

It's kind of funny. I distinctly remember predicting somewhere around the time when Trump got elected that being pro- or anti-Russian will become a dividing line between GOP and Dems, but I didn't really expect it to become this... literal and graphic.

But what can you do. Conservative authoritarians love each other.