Russia invades Ukraine

[timun]

Ukraine is at a significant manpower and equipment disadvantage, and always has been.


The fact that Russia has been fought to a stalemate is proof positive that the experts discussing "WW2 caliber tanks, machine guns from the 50's, Old Soviet crap" etc. were right all along: crappy old equipment and bungled tactics are a huge part of why Russian forces weren't able to achieve full strategic victory in the early months of the war.

Russia always had a very significant production capability, with huge reserves of natural resources and manpower. We're still talking about a country almost twice the size of Canada, with almost 150 million people. They may not be a "superpower", but they still have a very large defence industry and are still a very formidable opponent through sheer size alone.

Those estimated vehicle losses do seem perhaps a bit optimistic, but not unrealistic. It seems huge to us, but Russia already had tens of thousands of armoured vehicles, self-propelled artillery, etc. They've taken a huge hit to their inventory, but they still have thousands more... And yes, they can produce lots and lots more.


Ukraine's objective is to keep Russia from advancing any further, and eventually push them back to the border. Russian forces have had time to dig in and mine the #### out of the front lines, making the Ukrainian counter-offensive much harder. And Ukrainians have been fighting with one arm tied behind their backs the whole time: quite deliberately avoiding a direct assault on Mother Russia itself, for fear Putin will start letting nukes fly. If not for Russia's nuclear fall-back option, Ukraine would have already taken the fight to Russian territory and attempted to destroy Russian weapon and materiel production sites.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by curves2000

Russia has made a profound switch to full on manufacturing as much military gear as possible and it seems to be working.

They may have mountains of equipment in storage and more but their ability to produce appears to be very strong considering. What they may lack, they are able to procure from other allied sources.

I am fully on Team Ukraine but it's become obvious to me that a lot of the experts who were predicting and discussing a lack of Russian equipment may be out of touch. We heard lot's of stories about WW2 caliber tanks, machine guns from the 50's, "Old Soviet crap" and more.

What frustrates me is that despite all the above, Ukraine is still in a very challenging fight. The West has trained a lot of troops, sent over billions and billions in high quality equipment, provided very high level intelligence and technical knowhow and a whole lot more.

It's frustrating that despite everything Ukraine isn't making the gains it needs to. Russia seems to have been able to mitigate enough western tech, military doctrine and tactics and more.

Sad but it still appears to be that Russia can still get stuff done on the battlefield despite losses that are mind blowing.

While the highlighted is not false, I'm going to put a bit of different light on it.

If we assume that the Ukrainian strategy is at least in part the old defensive strategy of "the occupier will get tired of the war before the people who live there" (which is how Taleban beat the US in Afghanistan, or how the Mujahideen beat the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, or how Viet Cong beat the US in Vietnam...), then somewhat paradoxically Russia moving towards a fully wartime economy might do more to fasten an end to the war than it does to prolong it, because a wartime economy is much less sustainable in the long term than a more normal economical situation.

While Russia has big manufactoring sector, it's not that strong relative to it's size. This is already a major reason why inflation has been running high inside Russia, and dedicating large chunks of that sector to build things to be blown up in Ukraine is going to make inflation a lot worse, as all those workers bring their wages into the economy without creating anything for the consumer market. And the sanctions, while imperfect, are at least doing their part to make sure that imported goods aren't coming in at large enough numbers to pick up that difference.

(However, militarizing the economy isn't necessarily a bad move by Putin, since ending the war as quickly as possible is very much his goal, and looking militarily undefeatable is a good way to make Ukrainians and the West think the war is not winnable. It's basically another item on the long list of ways in which Putin has gone all-in on this war. He's betting everything to win the war, even if it means destroying Russia while doing it.)

I also wouldn't say Russia's ability to produce new materiel is "very strong", although it's impossible to debate simply because there's no official numbers and no objective standard by which to measure these things.

However, I'll use this tweet previously linked by Cheese as a counter-point.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1742354683622994292

Specifically this part

using a heavy bomber to throw 2 rockets at a major target is just silly...

Now, the above is obviously Ukrainian propaganda, but I think there's enough evidence to suggest that it's not complete BS. Basically, while Russia can still produce a lot of stuff, "a lot" isn't really that impressive compared to the scale of the war.

There's a lot of anecdotes suggesting that material shortages are a very real thing for Russia, and that the amounts seen on the battlefield aren't super impressive.

(However, the obvious counter-argument to that is that Russia doesn't need to impress anyone as long as it can still beat the Ukrainians, who have even worse materiel shortages.)

I do absolutely agree with you however that a lot of people are overly dismissive of Russia's ability to produce new materiel. Sure you can still find plenty of Russian troops with equipment that's at best from the seventies, but they still have more modern (or modern enough) equipment than the Ukrainians.

(Besides, not everything that's old is out of date.)

[Cheese]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1743247629327253923

https://twitter.com/user/status/1743249859061170186

https://twitter.com/user/status/1743244335481549251

https://twitter.com/user/status/1743201891633320375

[Cheese]

Bigly if true

https://twitter.com/user/status/1743196635843174574

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Cheese

Bigly if true

https://twitter.com/user/status/1743196635843174574

If visegrad has it and no one else, I'd need quite a few mountains of salt to take with it

[Monahammer]

Gerasimov was probably not long for a fall from a high story window anyways, but it would be great to know he was vaporized.

[Firebot]

Newsweek and Dailymail has an article on it, but so far there has been no confirmation of it being true.

https://www.newsweek.com/valery-gera...rumors-1858042

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ke-Crimea.html

I doubt we would see this confirmed anytime soon. Note that the rumours came due to a Russian source, not a Ukrainian source.

What we do know is an important command post was indeed hit in Crimea and of high value.

[Cheese]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1744407506338611594

https://twitter.com/user/status/1744530807560012203

https://twitter.com/user/status/1744696156121133202

https://twitter.com/user/status/1744689947351601656

https://twitter.com/user/status/1744636584341778674

https://twitter.com/user/status/1744471213814976733

[Red Slinger]

While it's nice to think that Russia is really suffering in both military and civilian areas, those are really not accurate portrayals of what's happening in Russia. Yes, there are economic concerns but generally speaking, the day-to-day lives of most Russians hasn't gotten much worse. The way that Twitter account makes it sound, Russia is on the verge of collapse. That isn't the case. I guess it's intended to keep the Ukrainian morale high?

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

While it's nice to think that Russia is really suffering in both military and civilian areas, those are really not accurate portrayals of what's happening in Russia. Yes, there are economic concerns but generally speaking, the day-to-day lives of most Russians hasn't gotten much worse. The way that Twitter account makes it sound, Russia is on the verge of collapse. That isn't the case. I guess it's intended to keep the Ukrainian morale high?

But life in Russia hasn't gotten better, it is still a 2nd world country (maybe 3rd world outside of the cities) masquerading as a World Power.

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

But life in Russia hasn't gotten better, it is still a 2nd world country (maybe 3rd world outside of the cities) masquerading as a World Power.

For sure, but that's not what those clips are suggesting. They seem to be suggesting that Russia's military has taken such a beating that they're about to surrender and that Russian citizens are so poor and destitute that they eat out of garbage cans. I understand the reason for propaganda, especially for the citizens of Ukraine. However, I think when discussing the conflict it's also useful to understand what is propaganda and what is the truth.

[Cheese]

Lots of issues on the front for the ruskies.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1744648450124259493

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

For sure, but that's not what those clips are suggesting. They seem to be suggesting that Russia's military has taken such a beating that they're about to surrender and that Russian citizens are so poor and destitute that they eat out of garbage cans. I understand the reason for propaganda, especially for the citizens of Ukraine. However, I think when discussing the conflict it's also useful to understand what is propaganda and what is the truth.

It's a good reminder.

I'm additionally going to take the moment to get pedantic and remind that propaganda and the truth are not mutually exclusive.

Even if a reported thing is 100% true, it's propaganda if its released and spread with an agenda.

[Itse]

...and to go on a bit...

I don't think there's anything wrong with spreading Ukrainian propaganda here. I think we have use for it too, being emotionally involved in the war.

[Cheese]

Lol

https://twitter.com/user/status/1744987357781352906

[Huntingwhale]

I hope to god that is true!

[FlamesAddiction]

The Serbian militants led by far right, ultranationalist Dejan Beric, are apparently close to revolting against their Russian commanders. In a BBC interview, he claims that they are beaten with rifles, not provided ammunition, called slurs, and just generally mistreated. He also said he expects to be prosecuted for speaking out.

https://charter97.org/en/news/2024/1/9/578712/

For context, Beric has been close with Putin for years and also participated in the Crimean invasion back in 2014, was decorated for it, and is considered a hero in Russia. While maybe his mercenary group's military value isn't going to make or break the war, the fact he is falling out with Putin speaks volumes. The guy is such a dick, he isn't even welcome in Serbia anymore.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dejan_Beri%C4%87

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Cheese

Lol

https://twitter.com/user/status/1744987357781352906

Somewhere, a movie script is already writing itself.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Itse

Somewhere, a movie script is already writing itself.

And hopefully the ending has them visiting the Kremlin.

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by Itse

Somewhere, a movie script is already writing itself.

Yeah, I was thinking this has Tarantino written all over it.