Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Even if those are the actual odds it's a dumb bet to make. Way too much chance of randomness happening in 10 games. Flames could play like crap but fluke out enough wins or play great but get stoned by great goaltending.

Randomness is assumed to be equal to zero - just as much chance that the Kings get a bit of luck as there is for the Flames.

The odds are what they are.

[Igster]

Originally Posted by bomber317

Great... our next 3 games are against the 3 of the 4 hottest teams over their last 10......

Which will make the games that much more exciting. Enjoy the ride.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Even if those are the actual odds it's a dumb bet to make. Way too much chance of randomness happening in 10 games. Flames could play like crap but fluke out enough wins or play great but get stoned by great goaltending.

that is why its called a bet lol

nothing is for certain, but I knew nobody would actually own up to those odds

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

That is just emotion talking though. There is really no way we should be 75% either, but that is what Sporstclubstats has us at.

What they both are are models. One uses a format that favours LA, the other uses one that favours us. And given how few games are left and how we are trending to a race between two teams practically in a dead heat, the margin for error on both is huge. Hell, if you average the two models, you get LA at 59.6 and Calgary at 58.0.

so you agree with me, LA does NOT have a 70% chance

because that is all I have said

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by dino7c

that is why its called a bet lol

nothing is for certain, but I knew nobody would actually own up to those odds

You lol too much


Also, I don't bet. Period. Give me 10-1 odds and I won't bet

[Street Pharmacist]

On a positive note, NJ is 10-4-2 in their last 16 games heading into tonight against LA

[bomber317]

Originally Posted by Igster

Which will make the games that much more exciting. Enjoy the ride.

Definitely enjoying it.

If you told me before the start of the season that

1) Vancouver, Calgary and LA would be fighting for a playoff spot and Van/Cgy would be winning the race at this point

2) that Nashville will be comfortably making the playoffs with a chance at winning their division

3) that the Jets would have a solid chance at making the playoffs.

A decent chance that 4 new teams making the playoffs with LA, COL, DAL, SJ out??!?

I would have bet my house with whoever would have predicted that.

[troutman]

Kings fans are targeting 97 points.

To get there, they need to go 7-3-1.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by troutman

Kings fans are targeting 97 points.

To get there, they need to go 7-3-1.

IF they managed that

6-3-1 for the Flames would be what the Flames need

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by dino7c

so you agree with me, LA does NOT have a 70% chance

because that is all I have said

I am not an expert at statistical models, so I neither agree nor disagree. I am merely pointing out that people are fipping out over one model says that 7 times out of 10, a Kings team driving possession the way it does will make the playoffs from this starting point. That still provides a huge margin of error, exactly as Sportsclubstats's three in four chance for us has a large margin of error.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by dino7c

so you agree with me, LA does NOT have a 70% chance

because that is all I have said

You can't give probability without context.
Based on home/road record, no. Based on home/road rolling 25 game Fenwick close, yes.

It's objective. Maybe you feel like one model is less applicable, but that's not what you said. You said it was "Not smart".

I think both are around 50/50 by strictly gut feeling

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

You can't give probability without context.
Based on home/road record, no. Based on home/road rolling 25 game Fenwick close, yes.

It's objective. Maybe you feel like one model is less applicable, but that's not what you said. You said it was "Not smart".

I think both are around 50/50 by strictly gut feeling

so you don't think its accurate in this case either

making a bet based on those odds would not be "smart" and that seems to be confirmed because even its biggest supporters wouldn't be willing to put anything on the line.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by dino7c

so you don't think its accurate in this case either

Stop putting words in people's mouths.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Also, I don't bet. Period. Give me 10-1 odds and I won't bet

You should head over to the FanDuel thread and see what fun you're missing

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Stop putting words in people's mouths.

he said he personally thinks the chances are 50/50

[terminator]

Please guys stop, my heart can't take the paradigm shifts.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by polak

When you say 6-2-2 it looks a lot better then saying we have won one more game than we have lost. I.E. we're basically playing .500 hockey.


That's why we have a no cushion. We have slumped a bit.

you realize if the Flames "slump" like this again for the final 10 games they will have 98 points

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by dino7c

he said he personally thinks the chances are 50/50

He's also not oversimplifying by basically arguing "that model is wrong, period, because I don't like it", which is what you are doing.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Even if those are the actual odds it's a dumb bet to make. Way too much chance of randomness happening in 10 games. Flames could play like crap but fluke out enough wins or play great but get stoned by great goaltending.

You should take bets where the odds are in your favour, even if they are uncertain. It's like corsi's signature, I would take that bet (45% on a coin flip) even if you only offered it to me once. There are a number of theories on how much to bet in circumstances like that, the most famous is the kelly criterion.

[polak]

Originally Posted by dino7c

you realize if the Flames "slump" like this again for the final 10 games they will have 98 points

Great. Doesn't change the point. If you only win one more two more games then you lose in 10 games, other teams will probably keep up.