CBC explains the stalemate/WWI stalemate similarities and withering of support from the West which is true - Jerry Springer Republicans are blocking funding in Congress.
Collective west minus Poland and the UK dithered too much on the quantity and type of equipment. The debate on tanks stretched for months while the Russians laid mines and created difficult obstacles. The fear of a Russian loss and collapse kept us from ensuring a Ukrainian victory. Now we have the carnival in the US house with the keys to continuing American aid.
CBC explains the stalemate/WWI stalemate similarities and withering of support from the West which is true - Jerry Springer Republicans are blocking funding in Congress.
Yeah, it's been brewing for a while if people were reading other sources instead of the many places on social media sharing only positive Ukraine news. I saw a clip the other day of Lindsey Graham in an interview where he stated they would no longer be funding the Ukraine war until other more urgent funding for America is provided. Contrast this with earlier in the war when he was caught laughing on camera about how they were going to keep funding this war until Ukraine won. It's exactly as the poster opendoor has mentioned a number of times - the US never gave a damn about Ukraine and they'd pull out as soon as it was no longer serving a purpose for America or if they need to cut their losses.
There is a lot of negative news that is happening at the moment and I am personally really upset about how things are transpiring. It appears we may be approaching the point that I have long feared and been mocked for suggesting may happen. The small, powerful men in the suits will be tapping Zeleneksy on the shoulder and indicating the battle was a solid one, but it won't be allowed to be supported from the west for much longer.
Ukraine will most likely be forced into a position where huge swaths of it's land will become Russia and there isn't anything the west will do about it. Sure Ukraine can continue to fight, but realistically, with what weapons when the deliveries slow and then stop?
Remember the loud and vocal message from US President Joe Biden about "Ukraine doesn't need jets now, they will get them when they need them" Seem like that, amongst other errors is leading to Putin really pulling through on this thing.
I am more perplexed as to how we get here when in the early weeks of the war, we had some of the greatest militarily and political minds all telling us that Russia was days away from collapse. All we heard was stories about drunk Russian military, huge losses, them scrapping the bottom of the barrel for equipment and more. All that may have been true.
All those Russian sanctions that were suppose to collapse Russia's economy, pressure the Russian elite's into applying pressure to stop and more? Those are probably coming off in the near future as part of some sort of land deal in exchange for peace.
Lot's of talk about supporting Ukraine till the end etc but really, did we ? I read a great military analyst article that I can't seem to find. It made a startling point about the west's power vs the other power players like China, Russia, North Korea, Iran etc.
The US is still struggling to produce enough artillery and ammunition for Ukraine's counteroffensive and Europe, collectively, has made a "promise" to supply something along the lines of a million shells.
Putin made a call to North Korea and the order was filled quicker than Amazon could fulfill a Prime package. Ships showing up with the goods. China being able to churn out whatever they want, whenever they want.
If we are suppose to take NATO security as seriously as we are suppose to, or think we do, perhaps we better be on our A game? When the other side (Russia, Iran, China, North Korea etc) is able to get more done that the perceived powerhouses like the west, is that not a little concerning?
I feel terrible for everybody in Ukraine and the suffering they have endured, but I am getting a yucky feeling about all this and that somehow, we have been lied to and BS'ed about this for a long time. I almost feel like Putin outsmarted us and everybody around us.
I don’t know of any analysts who thought a decisive defeat of Russia was likely. Early this year the Economist had a panel of experts weigh in, and they predicted a 3-5 year war ending indecisively with a ceasefire. That’s the profile of a typical modern war.
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Originally Posted by fotze
If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.
Putin made a call to North Korea and the order was filled quicker than Amazon could fulfill a Prime package. Ships showing up with the goods. China being able to churn out whatever they want, whenever they want.
I mean, you're talking about a country that pretty much all they do is develop military crap while their people starve to death. It's not hard for them to fill that order and do so happily knowing Russia is on their side.
Collective west minus Poland and the UK dithered too much on the quantity and type of equipment. The debate on tanks stretched for months while the Russians laid mines and created difficult obstacles. The fear of a Russian loss and collapse kept us from ensuring a Ukrainian victory. Now we have the carnival in the US house with the keys to continuing American aid.
I do wonder what Poland does unilaterally if NATO and EU support starts to drop off. They have been militarizing big time over the past few year and are poised to become one of the main powers in Europe... and they hate Russia. If NATO and the EU drag their feet anymore, I think they might take it up a notch.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CliffFletcher
I don’t know of any analysts who thought a decisive defeat of Russia was likely. Early this year the Economist had a panel of experts weigh in, and they predicted a 3-5 year war ending indecisively with a ceasefire. That’s the profile of a typical modern war.
Yeah, 4 years was the time frame I heard a lot. Typically the time it takes for war weariness to really click in for modern wars. That's the point that most sides seem to break.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cycling76er
I mean, you're talking about a country that pretty much all they do is develop military crap while their people starve to death. It's not hard for them to fill that order and do so happily knowing Russia is on their side.
They also don't have all the democratic red tape and 3rd party proliferation agreements that Western countries have. Unfortunately, when it comes to this sort of thing, democracies have a disadvantage compared to dictatorships.
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The signs that Russian economy might be approaching a real crisis are still coming steadily, and overall the polling in Europe is still showing strong support for Ukraine. There are also clear commitments for support already ongoing, like the F-16s.
EU has already committed to twice as much support for Ukraine as the US, and their commitments are largely in the budgets until at least 2025, and in some cases until 2027 (Germany most notably). EU is also very seriously discussing Ukraine's path to EU membership despite the war.
I don't see anyone "tapping Zelenskiy on the shoulder" anytime soon. (Not to mention that the whole idea of that happening is pretty weird, I don't get how people think that's how this works.)
Simultaneously, the relationship between Russia and China has greatly soured ever since Russia banned almost all fuel exports for a month this fall to make sure their domestic supply doesn't run out in the middle of harvest season, a perplexing move which is a huge indicator that Russia is hurting quite seriously.
As a small example of that, but I guess fitting for this forum, China even shunned Russias pretty traditional invitational fall tournament (formerly part of the EHT), forcing Russia to hastily put together a "KHL stars" team to have a fourth team alongside Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. (And in true Russian fashion that "KHL-stars" team mostly consisted of non-KHL players from lower tiers of Russian hockey. For some reason.)
Last edited by Itse; 12-08-2023 at 12:20 PM.
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Here's a video that touches on those economic issues and the fuel export ban, if people missed it. It's mostly about Russian economy in general though.
It was such a surprising move that I really feel like it got massively underreported considering what huge deal it was, even if temporary.
Even if we don't know the full reasoning behind that move, it's very safe to assume that Russia would never have done that if they felt they had options.
Let's remember that China has invested heavily in Russian oil and gas, and not out of the goodness of their hearts.
Last edited by Itse; 12-08-2023 at 12:21 PM.
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The signs that Russian economy might be approaching a real crisis are still coming steadily, and overall the polling in Europe is still showing strong support for Ukraine. There are also clear commitments for support already ongoing, like the F-16s.
EU has already committed to twice as much support for Ukraine as the US, and their commitments are largely in the budgets until at least 2025, and in some cases until 2027 (Germany most notably). EU is also very seriously discussing Ukraine's path to EU membership despite the war.
I don't see anyone "tapping Zelenskiy on the shoulder" anytime soon. (Not to mention that the whole idea of that happening is pretty weird, I don't get how people think that's how this works.)
Simultaneously, the relationship between Russia and China has greatly soured ever since Russia banned almost all fuel exports for a month this fall to make sure their domestic supply doesn't run out in the middle of harvest season, a perplexing move which is a huge indicator that Russia is hurting quite seriously.
As a small example of that, but I guess fitting for this forum, China even shunned Russias pretty traditional invitational fall tournament (formerly part of the EHT), forcing Russia to hastily put together a "KHL stars" team to have a fourth team alongside Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. (And in true Russian fashion that "KHL-stars" team mostly consisted of non-KHL players from lower tiers of Russian hockey. For some reason.)
The reason why I say tapping on the shoulder of Zelensky is that there have been enough articles, comments and more from senior members of the Ukrainian government and army indicating in some ways. There was an article about the lack of "big, beautiful, counterattack" not coming from the top defense official in Ukraine in Economist magazine.
Zeleneky may continue to want to fight, but if NATO and the west all but stop shipments, what is he fighting with?
The complete lack of significant movement in terms of ammunition, shells, top tier quality tanks, and F16's and more is in some ways, deafening, consider the silence overall.
PRIOR to the counteroffensive, Zeleneky was talking F16's, 3000 tanks (not 300 from the world) long range firing power and more. Since then, virtually every single person understands that things never went as well as they thought, or should have.
I have heard enough NATO personnel say, NATO countries would not even get out of bed, send men to battle, without air cover and superiority. What we are asking of Ukraine to do, is in essence, almost militarily, impossible.
I hope I am dead wrong in this regard, but the commentary and more suggests we are being prepared for a drop down in overall support.
We will know how this shapes up in the near term. Will Ukraine make it to NATO in a few years? Will it be in the EU? Will the billions and billions in assets from Russian elites actually be used for reconstruction of Ukraine?
I just don't know if I believe that the some of the wealthiest and most powerful men in the world (Russian elite) are going to be standing in line for bread, but that is the line we have been fed for nearly 2 years.
As I mentioned earlier, I hope I am DEAD wrong
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Ukraine can win like Afghanistan and numerous other countries have defeated occupiers numerous times. Not by decisive battlefield victories, but by outlasting the occupiers will to fight.
As for someone telling Zelenskiy to stop, I really don't see it. He personifies Ukraine's attitude, unyielding reaistance and fighting for every scrap of land, and he is massively supported by his people because of it. He's by far the most popular politician in Ukraine and probably in all of Europe. As long as Ukrainians want to fight, Zelenskys position is unquestionable and he can keep Ukrainians in the fight.
For me this war has really kind of revealed just how much of NATO doctrine and thinking are tied up in always being the superior force on every battlefield. There's been quite a bit of politely formulated commentary from Ukraine that the much hyped NATO training isn't always that applicable or useful.
The west wants to win wars by winning fights and conquering land, but no matter how strong their army, Ukraine can't take Moscow. There was never a realistic scenario that Ukraine could defeat Russia by just beating them on the battlefield. The winning condition was always defeating Russias will to fight. Taking back land helps, but only symbolically. Russia doesn't need Ukrainian territory to wage war. The line on the map is purely symbolical for Russians.
To win the war and not just battles, really the sanctions towards Russia and economic support of Ukraine are probably more important than the materiel. The battles that really decide the war are mostly fought within Russian economy and popular opinion, and while the fog of war is thick, those fights seem to be going well.
Materiel is mostly needed to make sure Ukraine can stay in the fight and keep draining Russian resources by prolonging a fight a Russia maybe (probably?) can't afford.
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Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN.
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The footage of Zelensky literally cornering Orban in Argentina is hilarious. I know that at all times he has cameras on himself and must maintain his composure, but if it was me I'd have clocked the guy in the face, choked him out and then pulled out my diplomatic immunity card and left him there. I can't imagine being in the face of a person who is literally aiding the invading dictator and having to listen to him try to weasel his way out. God bless the absolute genius who came up with that seating plan.
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1.3 Avdiivka: In this sector, 2 months and exactly one week after the Russians initiated the almost army corps offensive, the AFU managed to stabilize the front, with the Russians losing the initiative. What is noteworthy here is that the Russians have the highest casualties in the entire war. Forget Vuhledar, forget Bakhmut. Avdiivka will go down in history, even if the Russians capture it, even if the AFU holds out, as the battle after WWII in which the Russians lost the most military equipment and men. Open #OSINT sources that voluntarily identify equipment losses on both sides give Russian losses in the Avdiivka sector alone as between 200 armored vehicles lost by the Russians (some sources) and 400 armored vehicles, and on some days the loss ratio was as high as 1:7 in favor of Ukraine. And consider that these figures do not consider all Russian losses, because not all of them were filmed/photographed or published by the AFU.
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Wow, I just saw a video of some Ukraine councillor casually tossing a few grenades on to the floor during a council meeting in Ukraine which ended up injuring 26 other council members with 6 in critical condition. Wtf is going on? Video is shocking (no gore) and is around because it was being streamed on Facebook.
On praying for equipment, and ratios. Echoes of 1940.
I'm grateful for Itse's optimism but I'm feeling a deep sense of dread for 2024. I hope I'm wrong.
I wouldn't call myself an optimist, I feel more like I'm not sharing the pessimism.
I think there's a real chance Russia will implode economically and/or politically in a year or two. A chance. A very realistic possibility, but nothing more.
An economical and/or political implosion of Russia is not exactly a great scenario either. Especially for someone living in a neighboring country.
It's just better than Putin and the Russian imperialists getting away with anything even resembling a W. Again, speaking as someone living in a neighboring country...
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I wouldn't call myself an optimist, I feel more like I'm not sharing the pessimism.
I think there's a real chance Russia will implode economically and/or politically in a year or two. A chance. A very realistic possibility, but nothing more.
An economical and/or political implosion of Russia is not exactly a great scenario either. Especially for someone living in a neighboring country.
It's just better than Putin and the Russian imperialists getting away with anything even resembling a W. Again, speaking as someone living in a neighboring country...
I'm no expert, but I believe that Russia's economy has already pretty much imploded, I don't know how much further down it can go.
I doubt that there is going to be much of a political explosion, Putin seems to be like a coachroach, he just has complete control over everything there and is pretty much a stalinist in the way he works.
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